Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Breccia]

Disney escalates, pausing all Russian business, not just new movie releases.

In a related story: Putin's propaganda is failing.

So apparently, recently, Russia floated the idea that the CIA funded chemical/biological weapons labs in Ukraine. This is, of course, complete bullshit. But the theory is Russia is saying this, because they're prepping to use such weapons on the Ukrainian people themselves and want to blame US.

A plan brought down, and this is the funniest thing I've seen all day, was...food poisoning.

No, really. Putin cried wolf and nobody bought it, even as they came here and tried to sell it themselves. Because, you know, they'd starve to death if they didn't.

Putin is even now claiming "crisis actors". No, really. Putin's that desperate. Problem is, well the problem is he's murdering a lot of people, but the disinformation problem is, Russia got things like YouTube and Twitter. Once they got access to information that wasn't Putin, the damage was done. Removing access doesn't change that.

The realities of killed and wounded coming home in increasing numbers, the realities of the economic consequences for ordinary Russians...the realities of the horrific scenes of hospitals and schools being bombed next door in Ukraine — I don't think he can bottle up the truth indefinitely

-- CIA Director, under oath

Just like the ruble, Putin's lies have no value, and Russians know this. That's why they're looking elsewhere. See also: bank runs.

The Russian Central Bank is running out of options

The CBR has dealt with many challenges since the global financial crisis—but it has never lent out more than what it had backed up in foreign exchange and other safe assets, even in emergency lending. Now, with a conservative estimate of 53 percent of its assets frozen and the central bank unable to buy swaps from Western banks, the CBR could suddenly look much less credible as a lender of last resort.

In just a week, its claims on banks have quintupled to 5.2 trillion rubles, or 20 percent of its available reserves—and this assumes the $130 billion of gold reserves it holds are liquid, when they are in fact hard to move and not really in demand. Expect emergency lending to grow over the coming days and weeks, as markets re-open and the new sanctions begin to bite.

While nothing prevents the CBR from lending more rubles than it can access in foreign exchange, its goal in a high-inflation environment is to use the money it has wisely. It must also deal with a currency mismatch problem, since Western banks won’t provide swaps. The Peoples’ Bank of China does have a swap line with CBR, but only for the renminbi. Chinese state banks have also shown reluctance to finance the purchase of Russian commodities in dollars, so they are unlikely to offer dollar swaps.

If Russia's banks and currency were fine, they wouldn't be forcing foreigners to sell all their dollars for rubles. But, they are. They're also doing this:

The government has also introduced a set of policies to support the CBR’s effort to substitute frozen reserves. The Finance Ministry has introduced a “capital amnesty” allowing residents with savings abroad to bring them back to Russia with few questions asked about taxes or criminal activity. On March 1, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced a temporary ban on foreign investors selling their Russian assets. And in a subsequent announcement, the CBR banned the transfer of coupon payments to foreign owners of ruble bonds.

If you have to bribe people into using your money, your money sucks. In the world economy, money isn't worth what the government says it is, but what the world knows it is. And everyone who didn't divest and flee already has written off Russia as a loss.

[Xyonai]

Disney escalates, pausing all Russian business, not just new movie releases.

In a related story: Putin's propaganda is failing.

So apparently, recently, Russia floated the idea that the CIA funded chemical/biological weapons labs in Ukraine. This is, of course, complete bullshit. But the theory is Russia is saying this, because they're prepping to use such weapons on the Ukrainian people themselves and want to blame US.

Not-so-funny enough; I saw this exact same thing about US Backed Ukrainian Biolabs popping up on the Conspiracy Side of Reddit - through Subreddits dedicated to mocking them, mind - about a week and a half ago around the time that it was looking like Russia couldn't just steam-roll this thing. Feels like marching orders came out early to try and warm the smooth brains up to this idea, but it didn't gain any traction. So now it just looks like, just with the invasion itself, they're sticking to their guns despite their whole ass being out and going with it anyway.

[Draco-Onis]

Just like the ruble, Putin's lies have no value, and Russians know this. That's why they're looking elsewhere. See also: bank runs.

The Russian Central Bank is running out of options



If Russia's banks and currency were fine, they wouldn't be forcing foreigners to sell all their dollars for rubles. But, they are. They're also doing this:



If you have to bribe people into using your money, your money sucks. In the world economy, money isn't worth what the government says it is, but what the world knows it is. And everyone who didn't divest and flee already has written off Russia as a loss.

My guess is the Chinese are waiting for the Russians to get really desperate then they will have to offload their valuable commodities dirt cheap for huge profit for them. However once Russia does this the central bank will have only one very bad choice left print more money.

[Shadowferal]

We need to keep sending those launchers until every last Ukrainian grandmother is dual wielding them.

Babushka would...I need to find an image.

[AntiFascistVoter]

I laughed

Ukrainian farmer goes all in



Then I could tell this was photoshopped, because the Kuznetsov is not on fire.

Then I luaghed again.

[Easo]

saw the OSINT peoples list of the vehicle losses with visual confirmation atm :

Russia - 1020, of which: destroyed: 414, damaged: 13, abandoned: 159, captured: 434
Ukraine - 284, of which: destroyed: 98, damaged: 5, abandoned: 43, captured: 138

Every time I see a Ukrainian unit they have rpgs/stingers/nlaws/javalins. Just chewing these fuckers up.

Ukrainian numbers are ridiculously small. Well, that happens because Russian side barely films anything (under a ban to use mobile phones), with few official videos released. Most come from Chechens doing their publicity stunts and the "republics", who do not care.

[Belize]

saw the OSINT peoples list of the vehicle losses with visual confirmation atm :

Russia - 1020, of which: destroyed: 414, damaged: 13, abandoned: 159, captured: 434
Ukraine - 284, of which: destroyed: 98, damaged: 5, abandoned: 43, captured: 138

Every time I see a Ukrainian unit they have rpgs/stingers/nlaws/javalins. Just chewing these fuckers up.

Ukraine have captured nearly twice as many vehicles as they've lost. Russia is literally gearing them lol

[Edge-]

damn this was pretty brutal : https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/st...00265490227206

I saw that forecourt in a reddit video because one of the chechens got captured (he broke into the petrol station after his squad got slaughtered and got drunk and went to sleep)

"We fight in our land, and we protect our families."

Man, it's weird how often we need to learn about the dangers of asymmetrical stakes in war. As if the US didn't just get out of our latest reminder to the world.

[Breccia]

Earlier the NYTimes posted this article in whichi they talk to Andrei Kozyrev, high-ranking Kremlin official who worked with Yeltsin and Lavrov.

“The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military,” said Andrei V. Kozyrev, the foreign minister for Russia under Boris Yeltsin, in a post on Twitter. “Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military.”

We've been talking about how the Russian military's corruption has hampered its effects. This seems like pretty direct confirmation.

Following that, he gave this interview:



In that interview, near the end, you'll hear him talk about an "old Russian tradition": leaders being escorted away at gunpoint before being told the bad news about their failures. He didn't say either was likely, only that Putin being overthrown was more likely than his own military giving him the intel he needs to course-correct.

He's also said not even Putin is insane enough to launch nukes and his bluff on that regard is laughable.

[Shadowferal]

I thought that you had to punch in a security code to operate certain military vehicles...

[Breccia]

Ukraine have captured nearly twice as many vehicles as they've lost. Russia is literally gearing them lol

Germany's invasion against Russia failed, amongst other reasons, that when you Blitzkrieg you try to break through enemy forces to find the soft, gooey center. But behind the Russian army was more Russian army. That's just one factor, of course, but it was a big one.

Russia can throw wave after wave of its own men at Ukraine, until Ukraine's better ratio is just not enough to sustain them. It's a bad idea, the Russian people aren't going to be fans of that, but it will eventually cause victory.

At great cost.

[Grimbold21]

If all the random videos you see online could be reliable, you'd think that the hype around Russia's military is quite undeserved. Hell, it reminds of the movie "Enemy at the gates" where a country with a poorly equipped military relies on its overwhelming numbers to put pressure on its enemies.

[jonnysensible]

If all the random videos you see online could be reliable, you'd think that the hype around Russia's military is quite undeserved. Hell, it reminds of the movie "Enemy at the gates" where a country with a poorly equipped military relies on its overwhelming numbers to put pressure on its enemies.

russia does have an overwhelming number of troops and material. They do seem to be going for the Zap Branningan vs killbots strategy though

[Grimbold21]

russia does have an overwhelming number of troops and material. They do seem to be going for the Zap Branningan vs killbots strategy though

It does. My ignorance of military gear aside, it just looks...old. So they compensate with bigger numbers.

Then there's morale. Do these guys even know what they're fighting for? I imagine there's those who have little choice but to fight, and then there's the wretches that either buy into the propaganda; are there for all the pillaging action, or both.

[Makabreska]

I thought that you had to punch in a security code to operate certain military vehicles...

In old soviet ones all you need is to pour a bottle of vodka into the tank.

[Saradain]

russia does have an overwhelming number of troops and material. They do seem to be going for the Zap Branningan vs killbots strategy though

I don't remember that episode anymore, I know it's the "route with more chest hair" one. But the outcome probably wasn't as accurate as certain posters paint this thing to be.

[PhaelixWW]

You are gloating way too prematurely.

Inflation is going to catch up to everyone soon enough, you included.

Did you just... "whataboutism" inflation?

Lulz.

It's at 0.0084 right now; it never was at 0.0075 so far (lowest was 0.0079).

Except that's the one Russians are dealing with, not your toy markets.

As was posted before, it's been as low as 0.0065 and is currently at 0.075. It's only been as high as 0.0085 for a very small amount of time over the last week. The reason you're seeing that in MoEx is because the Russian government is extremely busy trying to prop up the local market with foreign cash, which is why they're limiting the removal of foreign cash until September (at least).

And regardless, the ruble was 0.013 just before the invasion.

You're just too busy trying to sell the lies.

Tell me when London opens their Nickel trade.

And the big loser there is a Chinese company. But the nickel market was only closed on 3/8 and is expected to open again on 3/11, so it will only have been shut down for 3 days. And it's just one niche market, not the entire MoEx, which has been closed for 2 weeks with no sign of opening again soon.

Nice try with another failed whataboutism.

Considering Putin has already threatened nuclear war

Putin has not "already threatened nuclear war".

he is on equal footing with hitler now in atrocities.

Not to downplay Putin's atrocities, but... he's not in Hitler's league. Hitler wannabe, maybe; he certainly seems to aspire to that status.

what the hell is Xi Jinping doing, though? He hasn't invaded Taiwan yet in this distraction despite all the fears, and he hasn't provided substantial, if any, aid to Vlad's conquest.

Because Jinping is not as stupid as you think he is. Also, he realizes, unlike you, that this isn't a game of Risk. One would hope, after watching the reaction to Putin's idiocy, that Jinping would be having second thoughts about a potential invasion of Taiwan.

how different would the world be now if, after the surrender of Imperial Japan, America forcibly absorbed China and Russia after all three parties were exhausted?

So, the US would, what, throw a poke ball at China and Russia and just add them to their pokedex? What the hell makes you think that the US could have achieved this "forcible absorption"? What a farce.

[Easo]

If all the random videos you see online could be reliable, you'd think that the hype around Russia's military is quite undeserved. Hell, it reminds of the movie "Enemy at the gates" where a country with a poorly equipped military relies on its overwhelming numbers to put pressure on its enemies.

I suggest trying to see the bigger picture (which in reality is only seen by Russian and Ukrainian MoD's, and only them), instead of random videos.

[Draco-Onis]

I suggest trying to see the bigger picture (which in reality is only seen by Russian and Ukrainian MoD's, and only them), instead of random videos.

Even if you ignore the random videos the slow progress makes it pretty obvious that the Russian army is lacking in terms of logistics, maintenance and overall planning. That's not saying Ukraine will win but Russia's image is tarnished for sure.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Shalcker appears to have gone quiet after he laughably tried to redefine what a bank run was. Embarassed? Waiting instruction on his next ridiculous talking point?

Stay tuned for more!