Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Veggie50]

This is a well-given description, but you left out one part: the prisoners are caught and in jail. Their situation is not good, no matter what. The Prisoner's Dilemna does not happen to two people who made good decisions and whose life is going great.

Related, bank runs don't happen when everything is fine. They happen when there's enough evidence that the bank/banking system is in trouble to the point that the question is even raised. If you told, for example, Germany, "Your banks are not safe and they'll collapse shortly" you'd get a bunch of blank stares. There's zero evidence that Germany is in that kind of trouble, banking or otherwise. Nothing would happen.

In Russia? The evidence is on every street corner. It's in every shop, every home, every news broadcast, and yes, every bank. The banks had to put up a bunch of new rules, desperately bribing people with stupid-high interest rates just to put their money back in. This is not what banks do when things are going well. This is a reverse fire sale. "It's only for three months" is also one of the most pitiful lack-of-defenses I've seen on these forums. Also, considering what's happening to Russia's inflation, their GDP, and their ruble, 20% ain't shit. Remember, a ruble was 0.013 dollars in mid-Feb. It's 0.0075 now. That's way more of a loss than 20% for 3 months can possibly overtake. If you didn't withdraw dollars, you got fucked.

Now again, The Prisoner's Dilemna is a good depiction, but the underlying premise needs to be considered. The DA doesn't knock on random-ass doors and offer them a plea deal. They offer it to people in handcuffs in a room with a one-way mirror. Even if, as you rightly suggest, every single Russia leaves their money in the bank, they'd minimize the remaining damage. But they are still stuck with rubles, which are worth as much as a Putin promise to not kill journalists.

Those Russians who got their money in dollars basically won the dilemna, and in many cases I'm guessing that happened because (breaking the Dilemna here) they knew ahead of time what was going to happen. I'm sure Putin's until-recently allies had some dollars and euros tucked away, but I'm guessing the average Russian does not. Meanwhile, the Russian goverment and therefore banks moved as quickly as they could to lock down the remaining useful currency (i.e. anything not a ruble) for themselves. Doing so moves the Prisoner's Dilemna from offering two people the chance to rat each other out, to a larger number like six, while the deal is only available for one. Hmm, a gambling game named for Russia in which someone gets really fucked. There should be a name for that.

Since you seem interested, I'll briefly mention there is a variant of the Prisoner's Dilemna where the same people play the same game over and over. It doesn't take long for cooperation to be required, since otherwise, the cycle of revenge kicks in and everyone loses far more. It doesn't apply here, once the Russian bank is out it's out, but it's worth a look.

The prisoners dilemma is indeed named due to the tactic being applied by police when interrogating suspects, but the condition of “being caught in a bad situation” is not actually part of the dilemma

Thats just a scenario where the prisoners dilemma is often applied. The name is a bit of a misnomer, thats why I mentioned the larger picture of “game theory” which describes the actions of individuals in relation to other individuals to gain advantage.

[PhaelixWW]

almost everything I have mentioned in the last two years, even up to small dialogue like Putin waving nukes as a casual threat or economic collapse, has come to pass. Everything. And before I was just said I was fearmongering or making conspiracies.

No, it hasn't, lol. You're just conveniently ignoring the 98% of ways that what you said are wrong and focusing in on the 2% as if it was 100%.

[Belize]

As a prophet

Go get help.

Neither you being serious, or just an attention whore is a stable place mentally.

[Edge-]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1...2F20222232833d

Reminds me of Monty python and the holy grail.

russian convoy: "RUN AWAY" "RUN AWAY"

I'm no military guy...but running a fairly compact column of heavy equipment down an open roadway like that, especially with a potentially disabled tank ahead, seems like...I dunno, a really bad idea?

[PhaelixWW]

UKRAINE OR RUSSIA WILL WIN. And then those two hypothetical scenarios will become real. Do you think Putin will let Ukraine win and not kill them all out of spite? He will launch a final attack if his military is fleeing back. And if Russia wins, they WILL kill everyone not kneeling to them, as proven by their blatant massacring of civilians now. The question then is how the West would respond to either

See, here you go with those conspiracy theories again.

One side or the other "winning" doesn't mean nuclear war or genocide.

Like a typical conspiracy theorist, you don't seem capable of understanding anything other than hyperbole.

[Poopymonster]

Shalcker appears to have gone quiet after he laughably tried to redefine what a bank run was. Embarassed? Waiting instruction on his next ridiculous talking point?

Stay tuned for more!

To be fair, it's nighttime over there now. With the weather, he has to make a choice.
Eat the turnip for food, or burn the turnip to stay warm. Rubles were used for toilet paper.

[Veggie50]

Yeah, not really, the best outcome for yourself and everyone is to leave your savings in the banks, because if you take it out and the bank topples, your money is worthless.

Unless you have already spent it. Theres a timelag between the banks toppling and rubles worth crashing (further).

I agree the best outcome for everyone would be to not do a bankrun. If you decide as a collective. If im worried YOU might do a bankrun, I’mnbest served doing a bankrun before you.

[YUPPIE]

See, here you go with those conspiracy theories again.

One side or the other "winning" doesn't mean nuclear war or genocide.

Like a typical conspiracy theorist, you don't seem capable of understanding anything other than hyperbole.

you have to understand putin right now is kind of mad (i.e crazed) as fuck. You can't doubt the worst scenarios

[PhaelixWW]

you have to understand putin right now is kind of mad (i.e crazed) as fuck. You can't doubt the worst scenarios

Sure I can.

Why do you think you know Putin's innermost thoughts so well?

[Veggie50]

i dont see how you can't see both outcomes as possible unless joking. One side will win.

Simple, you’re applying both the slippery slope fallacy and the false dichotomy fallacy.

1) slippery slope fallacy
The tendency to overestimate the likelyhood of B happening once A happens. You assume Putin will use WMD’s out of spite. Conversely you assume events following a russian victory will happen.

2) false dichotomy fallacy
You present that either of 2 sides must win. I believe it is increasingly more likely that both will lose. Either way a win for each side is not clearly defined. Therefore your simple dichotomy is far from a range of all possibilities.

[Corvus]

I'm no military guy...but running a fairly compact column of heavy equipment down an open roadway like that, especially with a potentially disabled tank ahead, seems like...I dunno, a really bad idea?

With the mud about they don't have many other options but to stick to the main roads.

[YUPPIE]

Simple, you’re applying both the slippery slope fallacy and the false dichotomy fallacy.
You assume Putin will use WMD’s out of spite

i wouldn't put it past a guy who many believe has gone insane, is currently waging a war that has pointlessly taken 10,000+ lives alone, and said he would not stop until he's dead or Ukraine is his, to use WMDs if he has truly lost

[Easo]

With the mud about they don't have many other options but to stick to the main roads.

What you said. Last and this week - multiple cases of both sides loosing their vehicles in mud, literally just a bit off the road. Mud really does not care for sides.

But was this formation flawed on a town's street? Yes, too close to each other, most of weapons unusable since they are butting the tank in front and will have harder time to maneuver.
The column also got away mostly intact aside from just two vehicles, despite Ukraine's claims. No proof, no kill.

[PhaelixWW]

i wouldn't put it past a guy who many believe has gone insane, is currently waging a war that has pointlessly taken 10,000+ lives alone, and said he would not stop until he's dead or Ukraine is his, to use WMDs if he has truly lost

That's because...

...you don't seem capable of understanding anything other than hyperbole.

[Veggie50]

i wouldn't put it past a guy who many believe has gone insane, is currently waging a war that has pointlessly taken 10,000+ lives alone, and said he would not stop until he's dead or Ukraine is his, to use WMDs if he has truly lost

True, assuming he’s gone mad, which is a big assumption. But now we’re debating the difference between possible and likely.

For instance, it is also possible a meteor falls right on putins bunker tomorrow solving the problem. Now wether that’s likely is a different debate.

Just to elaborate on the “putin gone mad” thing… people have a tendency to declare others insane when choices are made they don’t understand. Especially if those choices are wrong in hindsight. Occams razor suggests that “Putin fucked up” is a more likely explanation than “putin is mentally ill”.

[YUPPIE]

You people have to understand at this point: We're living in an insane reality normal people NEVER saw coming now...

anything can happen now

[Mihalik]

Mods....Notice that when certain people are on a time out the quality of the conversation generally improves?

[PhaelixWW]

You people have to understand at this point: We're living in an insane reality normal people NEVER saw coming now...

anything can happen now

No, it can't. Because this is not a hyperbolistic conspiracy theory.

[DarkTZeratul]

You people have to understand at this point: We're living in an insane reality normal people NEVER saw coming now...

People have been predicting that Russia would invade Ukraine for literally years.

[PhaelixWW]

People have been predicting that Russia would invade Ukraine for literally years.

Let alone their recent history in Crimea, Donbas, Georgia, Chechnya, Syria...