Russian invasion of Ukraine

[unfilteredJW]

Don’t let Vegas drag you guys into this derail.

[DarkAmbient]

Russia now also saying foreign arms convoys supplying Ukraine are legitimate targets. Unless they're referring to convoys outside of Ukraine's borders then I would have thought they'd already be considered targets?

[Easo]

Then why weren’t you nuanced enough to say the estimate is low instead of just the body count? And why did you object when adding more nuance was recommended?

I thought I was very clear. Truly, PC2 is pretty right on this one, stop being so damn paranoical. As far as I am concerned I wrote a perfectly understandable sentence, which cannot be misinterpreted. I am not going to explain the same thing over and over again to handful of obsessed people.
Fucking internet, it can only do and understand extremes.

Russia now also saying foreign arms convoys supplying Ukraine are legitimate targets. Unless they're referring to convoys outside of Ukraine's borders then I would have thought they'd already be considered targets.

Goes together with the recent USA's announcement that deliveries might soon become much harder. And Putler did war about the interventions...

[MCMLXXXII]

Oh, sweetheart, you agreed with that assessment by posting the irony comment. Otherwise why would you think it’s a gotcha for me? You were clearly implying I was being dishonest by advising that the language was imprecise. Which it most assuredly was. Unless you’re a sub to Easo’s blog and know for a fact he isn’t on Russia’s side. The only other interpretation is Flarelaine KNEW what was meant and was simply trolling.

Sure buddy. Good luck with whatever crusade you're on.

[YUPPIE]

People should not dismiss the possibility of a new Axis power and stop thinking everyone, especially China, strives for a relatively peaceful world (as in, uniting against rogue nukes).

People are focusing on Ukraine and not taking note of China’s modern internal cultural genocides and propaganda machine praising Putin, as well as the new ballistic missals tests North Korea has been escalating.

I think if Russia doesn’t lay the foundation for the new axis powers, the other two will when Taiwan or South Korea is overrun. There is also Saudi Arabia and their discontent with American sanctions or the disgruntled Middle East as a whole being employed by Russia in their conflict now as mercenaries.

[DarkAmbient]

Goes together with the recent USA's announcement that deliveries might soon become much harder. And Putler did war about the interventions...

It's unclear to me if he means attacking convoys in bordering nations but others seem to think that's what he meant:

Russia warned the West against sending further arms to Ukraine, saying such arms convoys could now be considered “legitimate targets” for the Russian armed forces.

Speaking to Russia’s Channel One broadcaster earlier, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov issued a warning to the West that could lead to a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.

“We warned the United States that pumping Ukraine with weapons from a number of countries orchestrated by them is not just a dangerous move, but an action that turns the corresponding convoys into legitimate targets,” the deputy minister said, according to comments reported by Russia’s state news agency TASS.

Ryabkov said there could be consequences to what he called the West’s “thoughtless transfer” to Kyiv of weapons such as portable anti-aircraft missile systems and anti-tank missile systems, both of which have been supplied to Ukraine by several NATO members including the U.S. and U.K.

Close observers of Russia, and its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, expressed shock and dismay at Ryabkov’s comments.

“If Russia attacks Western arms shipments ... it takes the conflict to a new level, of NATO vs. Russia,” Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said on Saturday, adding that a “critical moment in this conflict [is] coming up.”

“Does the West really realize the threat to our very system of government, and our way of life, from Putin, and is it willing to act,” he asked.

I really can't see Putin going for it.

[MCMLXXXII]

The crusade is not being misinterpreted. Clearly you’d prefer everyone just make up their own meaning and never be challenged. Which I wasn’t doing. I was offering advice on how to avoid being misinterpreted. You lot really need to grow the fuck up and accept when you make mistakes.

You and Flarelaine misinterpreted his post. You 2. The rest of us understood what he said. If you'd have been following this thread, you would have known what his stance is and how he would mean something like he said. Only because you misinterpreted his post you're the one attacking others who were honest enough to say they didn't misinterpreted it.
This was my last post about it because it's getting way off-topic.

[MCMLXXXII]

I read it how you did. I responded to Flarelaines misinterpretation genius. Try again.

Then take your own advice which you gave to Easo

[DarkAmbient]

Please don't get this thread locked...

[zealo]

If you want to argue about who misunderstood who, take it to PMs, it's not relevant to what this thread is about even in the slightest.

[Gorsameth]

If Putin wants to attack convoys while they are in NATO countries he is free to do so, so long as he doesn't go *surprise Pikachu face* when for example Poland invokes article 5 and NATO waltzes into Ukraine to send the Russian bear back to its cage.

[MCMLXXXII]

Sorry guys, back on topic:

Scholz and Macron don't see indication Putin is willing to stop this war soon.

[YUPPIE]

If Putin wants to attack convoys while they are in NATO countries he is free to do so, so long as he doesn't go *surprise Pikachu face* when for example Poland invokes article 5 and NATO waltzes into Ukraine to send the Russian bear back to its cage.

If NATO does that, Putin unleashes nukes. It’s not as simple as it seems. He could probably get away with attacking those convoys.

[Easo]

It's unclear to me if he means attacking convoys in bordering nations but others seem to think that's what he meant:


I really can't see Putin going for it.

Ukrainian side border posts are definitely likely to get Kalibr'ed purely for the point. Lesser chance, but still - Western side too, nearest airfields (remember Poland getting cold feet about the MiG's? Precisely because of this). And no, even those are highly, highly unlikely to escalate.
But I cannot imagine Russia will keep tolerating the Western deliveries for much longer.

[MCMLXXXII]

Hot take considering he has been escalating all week. Putin still thinks he can just throw enough bodies at it and win.

Eventually Putin will win. The question is how much it would cost him.

[PC2]

Putin still thinks he can just throw enough bodies at it and win.

Because that's true, if Putin throws more and more Russian bodies and bombs at Ukraine then Russia will eventually win. Also if Putin wants to keep his job then he can't back down and look weak in the eyes of the Russian people, so military retreat isn't really an option for him right now.

Economically speaking Russia won't win though because they don't produce enough to be in a dominant position.

[Jessicka]

Really? You think anyone, anywhere in the world is going to let Russia use a nuke?

No one, in the entire world, has used a nuke in an armed conflict since the 2 bombs on Japan. Even a 'single small tactical strike' anywhere is going to result in ww3. Literally the entire world against Russia.
Because the use of nuclear weapons will not, at any size, be tolerated.

A global retaliation is WW3, the world doesn’t want WW3. Otherwise we’d have seen that “global response” to their chemical weapons use in Syria, we saw instead the US and Britain back out of that country entirely.

What needs to be looked at hand in hand with Russian willingness to use unconventional weapons is the unwillingness to see WW3 escalate from it.

Seriously, the NATO response to Russia nuking Kyiv would be “fine have the smouldering ruin”. It would not be a MAD strike. I mean, that’s the probable end to all this whether they use conventional or unconventional weapons anyway.

[uuuhname]

Jesus Christ, it's like Afghanistan was never invaded by the US or Russia if you ask some posters on this website. just ignore any and all instances of a local insurgency winning a game of attrition against a world power because that has never EVER happened at any point in the last century, certainly not multiple times...

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really, the bigger concern here should be the scores and scores of unaccountable neo Nazi groups that are being given weapons and who might not accept Zelenski being president even if he negotiates peace with Russia. years from now Ukraine could be in as bad as shape as any other country in the middle east where the west poured weapons into it and walked away thinking they had accomplished something positive.

[Gorsameth]

Jesus Christ, it's like Afghanistan was never invaded by the US or Russia if you ask some posters on this website. just ignore any and all instances of a local insurgency winning a game of attrition against a world power because that has never EVER happened at any point in the last century, certainly not multiple times...

- - - Updated - - -

really, the bigger concern here should be the scores and scores of unaccountable neo Nazi groups that are being given weapons and who might not accept Zelenski being president even if he negotiates peace with Russia. years from now Ukraine could be in as bad as shape as any other country in the middle east where the west poured weapons into it and walked away thinking they had accomplished something positive.

sure, insurgencies can win in the end. But when they win the country is a broken empty shell.

But also I must say, there is probably a significant difference between waging an insurgency war against an aggressor who lives half the world away and can go home and never deal with you again, and an aggressor who lives next door and doesn't separate himself by half the world if they decide its no longer worth staying.

[uuuhname]

sure, insurgencies can win in the end. But when they win the country is a broken empty shell.

that's what I'm saying, that is the most likely outcome here. not nuclear war, not WWIII, but the middle east brought to the door step of Europe.