Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

sure, insurgencies can win in the end. But when they win the country is a broken empty shell.

But also I must say, there is probably a significant difference between waging an insurgency war against an aggressor who lives half the world away and can go home and never deal with you again, and an aggressor who lives next door and doesn't separate himself by half the world if they decide its no longer worth staying.

To be fair, the Soviet-Afghan war was similar in that the Soviet Union bordered the invaded country as well. So in that respect the analogy is correct.

[PC2]

that's what I'm saying, that is the most likely outcome here.

It sucks but they can rebuild themselves bigger and better after the conflict is settled. The world could also make donations to speed up the process in the future.

[Mihalik]

Ukrainian side border posts are definitely likely to get Kalibr'ed purely for the point. Lesser chance, but still - Western side too, nearest airfields (remember Poland getting cold feet about the MiG's? Precisely because of this). And no, even those are highly, highly unlikely to escalate.
But I cannot imagine Russia will keep tolerating the Western deliveries for much longer.

There's absolutely no chance whatsoever that the Russians would strike at NATO bases, installations or whatever outside Ukraine.

First of all, I highly doubt they have the capabilities at this junction, second escalation and retaliation would be guaranteed at that point.

I think that would be a bridge Russian command wouldn't risk crossing and would off Putin before letting it happen.

[uuuhname]

It sucks but they can rebuild themselves bigger and better after the conflict is settled. The world could also make donations to speed up the process in the future.

Libya, Syria, and Iraq beg to differ.

[Kallisto]

Libya, Syria, and Iraq beg to differ.

The big difference is that Ukraine is united and won't have factions fighting each other once the dust has settled. Libya, Syria and Iraq are fractured along community lines.

Ukraine is united, even more so than ever before. If they get the Russians out they'll rebuild like anything, plus Europe and North America. Hell even China looking for "friends" will likely flood the place with so much help it'll have scars but will rebuild swiftly.

[Barzotti]

Libya, Syria, and Iraq beg to differ.

There's a big difference: the Western world doesn't give a shit about some Middle-East countries.

[Fugus]

Not sure if it's been posted yet but.

"US intelligence officials believe a $700 million superyacht that's docked in Italy could belong to Russian President Vladimir Putin, reports say"
https://news.yahoo.com/us-intelligen...130934958.html

"Italy Seizes $578M SY A Yacht of Andrey Melnichenko—Part of Putin's 'Closest Circle' "
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...bndlbing&pfr=1

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

The big difference is that Ukraine is united and won't have factions fighting each other once the dust has settled. Libya, Syria and Iraq are fractured along community lines.

Ukraine is united, even more so than ever before. If they get the Russians out they'll rebuild like anything, plus Europe and North America. Hell even China looking for "friends" will likely flood the place with so much help it'll have scars but will rebuild swiftly.

Technically Ukraine has been in a civil war since 2014, not exactly the marks of a united country.

[MCMLXXXII]

The big difference is that Ukraine is united and won't have factions fighting each other once the dust has settled. Libya, Syria and Iraq are fractured along community lines.

Ukraine is united, even more so than ever before. If they get the Russians out they'll rebuild like anything, plus Europe and North America. Hell even China looking for "friends" will likely flood the place with so much help it'll have scars but will rebuild swiftly.

The Donbas and Crimea beg to differ.

[uuuhname]

The big difference is that Ukraine is united and won't have factions fighting each other once the dust has settled. Libya, Syria and Iraq are fractured along community lines.

Ukraine is united, even more so than ever before. If they get the Russians out they'll rebuild like anything, plus Europe and North America. Hell even China looking for "friends" will likely flood the place with so much help it'll have scars but will rebuild swiftly.

there ARE political factions inside the country, in the form of militias that are more often than not full on Nazi groups. just like in the middle east the west has given military hardware to right wing extremists who for the time being, are on "our" side. that is guaranteed to change, when this war winds down.

[Easo]

There's absolutely no chance whatsoever that the Russians would strike at NATO bases, installations or whatever outside Ukraine.

First of all, I highly doubt they have the capabilities at this junction, second escalation and retaliation would be guaranteed at that point.

I think that would be a bridge Russian command wouldn't risk crossing and would off Putin before letting it happen.

They absolutely have the capability, no reason to think Russia spent all of their cruise missiles on Ukraine (especially considering said missiles are still being used, as recently as yesterday, IIRC). Gotta have the strategic reserves for NATO.

But yes, making a couple strikes as a show of force/warning - unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely. Still would not lead to war though, Gaidax had a good point about a lot of steps before nukes start flying. Ukrainian side of the border? That's a different story.

[Cynep]

Technically Ukraine has been in a civil war since 2014, not exactly the marks of a united country.

Only Russian propagandists call being invaded by Russia "a civil war". I live in Donetsk, and everyone here knew from the very start, before the "republics" even started calling themselves "republics", that we were under direct guidance and financing from Kremlin, and all the frontpersons are just for show.

[uuuhname]

There's a big difference: the Western world doesn't give a shit about some Middle-East countries.

lol the west (specifically the US) does not in fact give a shit. if they truly did, Joe Brandon would have stepped in and used the US's considerable weight, in a diplomatic fashion, to end this conflict quickly, but they won't. because buying and throwing weapons at a problem is far more beneficial to the shareholders of Raytheon and other weapons manufactures then actually brokering peace.

[MCMLXXXII]

Only Russian propagandists call being invaded by Russia "a civil war". I live in Donetsk, and everyone here knew from the very start, before the "republics" even started calling themselves "republics", that we were under direct guidance and financing from Kremlin, and all the fronts are just for show.

I get your point. But the point remains, this Russian instigated civil war probably won't die down when this war/invasion is over.

[Mihalik]

there ARE political factions inside the country, in the form of militias that are more often than not full on Nazi groups. just like in the middle east the west has given military hardware to right wing extremists who for the time being, are on "our" side. that is guaranteed to change, when this war winds down.

Let's not parrot that Russian propaganda shall we?

Statically speaking the Ukrainian military seems to have fewer per capita Neo Nazis in it's ranks than pretty much any branch of the US military.

Hell, Germany recently disbanded an entire special forces unit because it was through and through infiltrated by Neo Nazis.

The commander of the Russian National Guard is literally a Neo Nazi with the tattoos and everything.

[Cynep]

I get your point. But the point remains, this Russian instigated civil war probably won't die down when this war/invasion is over.

In the imaginary situation where Ukraine magically defeats Russian army and takes over Donbass and Crimea militarily, there will be absolutely no "civil war" or even unrest in Donbass. Maybe in Sevastopol city. I doubt about the rest of Crimea.

Edit: To clarify, overwhelmingly only criminal lowlifes fought on the separatist side in 2014. Normal people stayed out or became refugees for that time.

[Barzotti]

lol the west (specifically the US) does not in fact give a shit. if they truly did, Joe Brandon would have stepped in and used the US's considerable weight, in a diplomatic fashion, to end this conflict quickly, but they won't. because buying and throwing weapons at a problem is far more beneficial to the shareholders of Raytheon and other weapons manufactures then actually brokering peace.

Please do tell me how the US could end the war "in a diplomatic fashion" without launching nukes.

[uuuhname]

Let's not parrot that Russian propaganda shall we?

it's Russian propaganda to point out how the west supplying extremist groups with weapons and those same groups causing problems for the country they are in years and years down the road? as if there isn't any historic president to point to as evidence of this....

I'm not talking about the Ukrainian government, I'm talking about the militias that are not under any oversight, FROM ANYONE.

read what is being said instead of knee jerk reacting.

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Please do tell me how the US could end the war "in a diplomatic fashion" without launching nukes.

what do you think diplomacy is? guys in a room measuring their dicks? grow up.

[MCMLXXXII]

it's Russian propaganda to point out how the west supplying extremist groups with weapons and those same groups causing problems for the country they are in years and years down the road? as if there isn't any historic president to point to as evidence of this....

I'm not talking about the Ukrainian government, I'm talking about the militias that are not under any oversight, FROM ANYONE.

read what is being said instead of knee jerk reacting.

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what do you think diplomacy is? guys in a room measuring their dicks? grow up.

Yeah that's Russian propaganda

[Barzotti]

what do you think diplomacy is? guys in a room measuring their dicks? grow up.

So what should the US do to prevent this war in a diplomatic fashion, to use your own terms?