Russian invasion of Ukraine

[MCMLXXXII]

In the imaginary situation where Ukraine magically defeats Russian army and takes over Donbass and Crimea militarily, there will be absolutely no "civil war" or even unrest in Donbass. Maybe in Sevastopol city. I doubt about the rest of Crimea.

Edit: To clarify, overwhelmingly only criminal lowlifes fought on the separatist side in 2014. Normal people stayed out or became refugees for that time.

Chanced are slim Ukraine winning this indeed and it will probably end up with them claiming Donbas and Crimea which probably was the target all along.

[uuuhname]

Yeah that's Russian propaganda

cool, good for you.

[Mihalik]

it's Russian propaganda to point out how the west supplying extremist groups with weapons and those same groups causing problems for the country they are in years and years down the road? as if there isn't any historic president to point to as evidence of this....

I'm not talking about the Ukrainian government, I'm talking about the militias that are not under any oversight, FROM ANYONE.

Yes. It is Russian propaganda because it suggests that extremism is widespread in the country. It.is.not.
It is statistically borderline insignificant.

[Cynep]

Please do tell me how the US could end the war "in a diplomatic fashion" without launching nukes.

My estimation is that the US finally got an excuse to stomp on Russia economically, like they fought an economic war against USSR in 1980's but now it's far more one-sided; and now that they have this excuse, they will pressuring until Russia collapses somewhere in the future. Even if Europe surrenders to Russian energy clout, USA has too much to win and almost nothing to lose. So, "a diplomatic fashion" would be an internal Russian collapse and a new Yeltsin ruining it even further.

[Crispin]

There's absolutely no chance whatsoever that the Russians would strike at NATO bases, installations or whatever outside Ukraine.

First of all, I highly doubt they have the capabilities at this junction, second escalation and retaliation would be guaranteed at that point.

I think that would be a bridge Russian command wouldn't risk crossing and would off Putin before letting it happen.

Yeah NATO will end the war in Ukraine fast, if Russia strikes inside a NATO country.

[Mihalik]

They absolutely have the capability, no reason to think Russia spent all of their cruise missiles on Ukraine (especially considering said missiles are still being used, as recently as yesterday, IIRC). Gotta have the strategic reserves for NATO.

What the Russians claim to have on stockpile and what the Russian have one stockpile have been clearly shown to be two distinctly different things.

[Barzotti]

My estimation is that the US finally got an excuse to stomp on Russia economically, like they fought an economic war against USSR in 1980's but now it's far more one-sided; and now that they have this excuse, they will pressuring until Russia collapses somewhere in the future. Even if Europe surrenders to Russian energy clout, USA has too much to win and almost nothing to lose. So, "a diplomatic fashion" would be an internal Russian collapse and a new Yeltsin ruining it even further.

Indeed, you're right. I just disagree with the poster who says that the US doesn't give a shit. Because the scale of the US economical sanctions and their involvement in the war (like training Ukraine troops for months) shows that they deeply care.

[DarkAmbient]

Not sure if it's been posted yet but.

"US intelligence officials believe a $700 million superyacht that's docked in Italy could belong to Russian President Vladimir Putin, reports say"
https://news.yahoo.com/us-intelligen...130934958.html

"Italy Seizes $578M SY A Yacht of Andrey Melnichenko—Part of Putin's 'Closest Circle' "
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...bndlbing&pfr=1

Nice. Take every damn penny that piece of shit stole from the Russian people.

[uuuhname]

Yes. It is Russian propaganda because it suggests that extremism is widespread in the country. It.is.not.
It is statistically borderline insignificant.

but you can't deny that those groups are still there.

listen, I'm telling you, years from now, if a right wing insurgency pops up in the aftermath of this conflict, don't look at me shocked and surprised.

[Mihalik]

but you can't deny that those groups are still there.

listen, I'm telling you, years from now, if a right wing insurgency pops up in the aftermath of this conflict, don't look at me shocked and surprised.

Stop now. Stop digging. That's again Russian propaganda. The statistical odds for a right wing insurgency are higher in Germany or Austria than they are in Ukraine. Because unlike Ukraine those countries literally elect neo-Nazis into government and the actual standing military and police forces have significant issues with neo-Nazis in their ranks.

[Barzotti]

but you can't deny that those groups are still there.

listen, I'm telling you, years from now, if a right wing insurgency pops up in the aftermath of this conflict, don't look at me shocked and surprised.

You mean a right wing insurgency funded by Russia? Like since 2014?

[MCMLXXXII]

but you can't deny that those groups are still there.

listen, I'm telling you, years from now, if a right wing insurgency pops up in the aftermath of this conflict, don't look at me shocked and surprised.

Those groups are everywhere.
A right wing group rising in a country which is left in ruins? You don't say...
That certainly never happened before.

[Easo]

What the Russians claim to have on stockpile and what the Russian have one stockpile have been clearly shown to be two distinctly different things.

First, there is no Russian claim about their stockpile, two, we know they keep firing more and more missiles thus they do have them left, three, they are not idiots and would have a strategic reserve left for the primary opponent, it's how militaries operate.

Nice. Take every damn penny that piece of shit stole from the Russian people.

The really funny thing is that on the Runet you can see all kinds of Russians, from de facto fascists to democrats being happy about one thing - oligarchs loosing their stupidly expensive toys and properties, most of which are guaranteed to have come from illegally (or at least dubiously) acquired money.

[jonnysensible]

lmao, Joe Biden is now "convinced" Vladimir Putin is committed to invading Ukraine.



we are absolutely, 120% sure Russia will invade, we still want them to engage in diplomacy, but we're really really sure he's going to invade.

any moment now

*pregnant pause*





annnny moment now

you've had great takes so far why stop

[uuuhname]

So what should the US do to prevent this war in a diplomatic fashion, to use your own terms?

prevent? we're well passed that. Zillensky is still open to diplomacy, in fact he is demanding it, and the US should be chief among those states that says diplomacy is the solution to this. thankfully Joe Biden has rebuffed the no-fly-zone nonsense, but the sanctions on average Russian citizens is not going to affect the oligarchs or Putin.

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Those groups are everywhere.
A right wing group rising in a country which is left in ruins? You don't say...
That certainly never happened before.

I'M NOT THE ONE SAYING THAT POINTING THIS OBVIOUS FACT OUT IS RUSSIAN PROPOGANDA.

[Barzotti]

prevent? we're well passed that. Zillensky is still open to diplomacy, in fact he is demanding it, and the US should be chief among those states that says diplomacy is the solution to this. thankfully Joe Biden has rebuffed the no-fly-zone nonsense, but the sanctions on average Russian citizens is not going to affect the oligarchs or Putin.

But diplomacy implies that the two sides want to negociate and cooperate in good faith. And we perfectly know that Putin's demands are unacceptable for Ukraine.

[Okacz]

but you can't deny that those groups are still there.

listen, I'm telling you, years from now, if a right wing insurgency pops up in the aftermath of this conflict, don't look at me shocked and surprised.

How would anyone be shocked and suprised that any kind of insurgency might pop up in any territory in an aftermath of any war? Your guys army is performing drunken genocide in several cities, of fucking course there's resistance, both now and years from now, no matter the outcome.

Besides, you're just repeating russian propaganda with the "extremist groups". By definition, the most extremist of groups is right now invading a sovereign country.

[Jastall]

Chanced are slim Ukraine winning this indeed and it will probably end up with them claiming Donbas and Crimea which probably was the target all along.

I dunno. I doubt Putin would commit so many resources and risk so much pushback for two provinces. Donbass isn't poor or anything but are those really prizes worth a war + sanctions over? Especially when rebels friendly to him already had a lot of control over those regions anyway?

Na, I think his goal was what happened in Crimea; for the Russian army to just roll in practically unopposed and dictate what would happen from now on, only Ukraine-wide. Get rid of a NATO-friendly government, secure their border, and (IMO most importantly) seize all the territory's plentiful resources and secure them either via occupation or a puppet government. That's why the Russian army was so unprepared, the plan was for Ukraine to keel over, not resist. Getting only Donbass out of the deal would absolutely not be worth all the resources sank into the adventure to say nothing of the sanctions.

Or hell, maybe the Kremlin drank its own kool-aid and really thought the Ukrainian government was a bunch of drug-addled ultranazis merely days away from throwing chemical weapons at Russia or whatever. Who the hell knows at this point.

[MCMLXXXII]

prevent? we're well passed that. Zillensky is still open to diplomacy, in fact he is demanding it, and the US should be chief among those states that says diplomacy is the solution to this. thankfully Joe Biden has rebuffed the no-fly-zone nonsense, but the sanctions on average Russian citizens is not going to affect the oligarchs or Putin.

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I'M NOT THE ONE SAYING THAT POINTING THIS OBVIOUS FACT OUT IS RUSSIAN PROPOGANDA.

You claiming that is was western instigated IS Russian propaganda.
Right wing extremists rising while there country is in shambles:
Hitler
Putin

Both western instigated, right?

[uuuhname]

Stop now. Stop digging. That's again Russian propaganda. The statistical odds for a right wing insurgency are higher in Germany or Austria than they are in Ukraine. Because unlike Ukraine those countries literally elect neo-Nazis into government and the actual standing military and police forces have significant issues with neo-Nazis in their ranks.

you insist on talking about the Ukrainian government when I have never, at any point in this discussion, brought up right wing elements within the Ukrainian government. I am talking exclusively about militias that are operating outside of the influence of the Ukrainian government. who, stand to benefit from an entire country being destabilized. that's been my point, but you seem intent on ignoring what I say in exchange for reading between lines that aren't there.