Russian invasion of Ukraine

[uuuhname]

You claiming that is was western instigated IS Russian propaganda.

where are you getting this. where, where have I claimed this. you guys are literally making shit up.

[Barzotti]

This America most do diplomacy bullshit is coming from Hasan Piker's stupid fucking streams.

He's one of those lefties who went so far on the "American Imperialism Bad" scale that he came out on the end where every other form of imperialism is either OK or no matter who's doing it it's still America's fault.

I'm curious: does this Hasan Piker guy really thinks it's possible to negociate with Putin in good faith, the guy that has shown repeatedly he can't be trusted in any shape or form? Is he that retarded?

[Cynep]

I am talking exclusively about militias that are operating outside of the influence of the Ukrainian government.

We'll see but so far the end goal of all those militias was "a free Ukraine". I'd expect them to go into hibernation and mostly disband in case of the hypothetical Ukrainian victory.

[Breccia]

So I just got back from having lunch with an old friend. HUGE mistake. You know that snowstorm that went across the American Northeast? Yeah, like an idiot I thought I could handle it for a short distance. Took me three hours to go fifty miles. I'm not even home yet, I'm at a Starbucks.

Anyway.

So it was fun to catch up, and yes, this topic did in fact come up. And while thusly discussing, two related topics: pre-season games, and the Vertibird from Fallout.

Spring training is ongoing. The NFL has seen a fight between players, owners, and advertisers. BattleBots opening round is over. Why do we have pre-season games? So the competitors can learn from how their player(s) do on the field and make adjustments before prime time. QB likes to run? Adjust the line. Self-righting mechanism CO2 canister can't survive fire? Swap it out, or protect it. You signed a contract with Marcell Ozuna? Fire him. You get the idea.

Say what you want about the United States' military-industrial complex, but we're always out there fucking with people. Morally and/or ethically not always the best move, but it does keep us in a permanent state of learning and adapting. Lessons from the Vietnam War led to a massive redistribution of US forces and tech from 1980 and onwards. Then we fought Iraq in 1991, Serbia in 1999, Afghanistan in 2001, and Iraq II: Bagdad Boogaloo in 2003. These went sequentially better, in terms of operational effectiveness. (We are not talking about occupation right now)

With each victory, with each defeat, with each glitch, things were changed. Somes it takes longer than others. Remember the failed attempt to rescue Iranian hostages in 1980? That led to the V-22 Osprey, pride of the Brotherhood of Steel and also Ghost in the Shell. Oh, and it works in real life too, even if it took a little while *cough decades cough* to get right.

New tech. New people. New tactics. New results.

Russia...hasn't done that. Don't get me wrong, Russia hasn't sat around doing nothing for 30 years. But they haven't been nearly as active as US. Granted, that's a high bar to set, but we're seeing the results in real time. Russia skipped the pre-season, played one or two teams in their division then said "Fuck it, we're going to the semi-finals". Then end up going to the locker room tied against a lower-ranked team with a really good ground game Russia didn't know about. A ground game they couldn't stop, because they hadn't practiced.

And the audience is cheering for the underdog. Every sports site from ESPN to...uh...some other site, 538 maybe, is writing up articles like "Holy shit, look at this low-ranking team stalling Russia! Even if they lose, you have to give them props for doing this well, this long." Reporters are asking questions like "What was Coach Putin thinking?" or if they really want clickbaity headlines "Will Coach Putin be fired for this?" (more on that later)

Russia had a forfeit victory from Coach Trump in Syria, using some very familiar-sounding language by the way, and a crushing defeat of Crimea, after which, Ukraine got a new coach, new offensive coordinator, and some outstanding local running backs. Russia, by contrast, might have bought some new throwback uniforms. That's it. And we're seeing the difference unfold in real time.

Incidentally, this brings up a related point: China is watching the events unfold and thinking to themselves "Holy shit, maybe we should do some stretches and scrimmages". They should beat Taiwan, but then, Russia should have beaten Ukraine by now. They will, eventually, but they've lost three players to concussion protocols and someone spilled the Gatorade. China, more than most countries I'd wager, does not like to be embarrassed. Perhaps their next target won't be Taiwan, but a "pre-season" Taiwan. A warm-up, if you will.

And before posting, I took a look around, big surprise, Skroe posted on that very topic. Took me a while to find it, he posted a lot about China. Obviously he was talking about a different context, but he was talking about exactly that: China showing the world it can make it to the playoffs, and if need be, win.

Much of what my friend laid out for me is in this OP ED he clearly agrees with. I don't agree with all of it, but I'll sum up, and you can read the list for yourself. Some parts might sit better with you than others.

A) There's no diplomatic end here, because neither Putin nor Ukraine will accept a result the other will accept.
B) At some point, the Russian army will realize that no more help is coming -- no more ammo, food, fuel, and most importantly replacement soldiers. The Ukraine invasion force is about 100% deployed by now. They've been sent out to bash down a brick wall without enough hammers, and they'll have to decide if breaking their fists is worth it.
C) The US and allies were right about backing off the no-fly zone. The damage being done from the air is mostly done by artillery. Planes won't stop that.
D) The world has watched who is cheering for Russia. The world saw Donald Trump do it.
E) Taiwan also watching. Taiwan is not stupid, they're also practicing.
F) I can't do this one justice so I'll just quote it.

Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?

I don't know what "survive" means in this context. It is Russia, it could be literal.

And this part:

Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations.

Moral of the story, don't fuck around in the snow if you're not willing to push your vehicle through some snow-covered mud.

[Elegiac]

I'm curious: does this Hasan Piker guy really thinks it's possible to negociate with Putin in good faith, the guy that has shown repeatedly he can't be trusted in any shape or form? Is he that retarded?

As Mihalik said, there's a large contingent of ostensible leftists who have internalized their frustration over not being able to see their beliefs actualized and have turned to an ideology of resentment where the point isn't any achievable reform or improvement in government or policy, it's to endlessly critique power and inflict their frustration on others.

So we get takes that boil down to "US bad, NATO bad, West bad" that in no way to translate to an actual political position. Hassan is one such person who traffics in these sorts of takes another with Vaush, TYT, and others.

[uuuhname]

We'll see but so far the end goal of all those militias was "a free Ukraine". I'd expect them to go into hibernation and mostly disband in case of the hypothetical Ukrainian victory.

that depends on the state of the country after all of this. if it manages to restabilize then... still gonna keep an eye on that.

[Mihalik]

three, they are not idiots

Everything we've seen from them the past 20 or so days seem to indicate otherwise.

Even if not idiots. They are pathological liars who also happen to be profoundly incompetent and corrupt beyond our wildest estimates.

I'm willing to wager half the alleged Russian defense budget went straight into some oligarchs yachts, dachas and exotic pet collections.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm curious: does this Hasan Piker guy really thinks it's possible to negociate with Putin in good faith, the guy that has shown repeatedly he can't be trusted in any shape or form? Is he that retarded?

Yes./10char

- - - Updated - - -

Vaush.

Actually Vaush had shockingly reasonable positions on this, it to a large degree had to do with him being a debate bro who ended up talking to a whole bunch of people from Europe since the German elections and since this Ukraine bullshit went overdrive last year. And actually most other things. He has made himself persona non-grata on the online left in the process. All the nuance rubbed off on him.

[Torched]

Not sure if it's been posted yet but.

"US intelligence officials believe a $700 million superyacht that's docked in Italy could belong to Russian President Vladimir Putin, reports say"
https://news.yahoo.com/us-intelligen...130934958.html

"Italy Seizes $578M SY A Yacht of Andrey Melnichenko—Part of Putin's 'Closest Circle' "
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...bndlbing&pfr=1

That 578m euro yacht was in Iceland for 3 months or so last summer and stayed in Reykjavik harbor for about a month, saw it everyday, it's so fucking ugly.

[uuuhname]

Your guys army

Me: I don't think the US should indiscriminately throw weapons into a conflict. that has never panned out well later on down the road

You Freaks: OH SO IT'S ALL NATO'S FAULT YOU THINK IT'S ALL THE WESTS FAULT THIS IS HAPPENING YOU CELARY FELL FOR THE RUSSIAN PROPGANDAAAAAA WHY DON'T YOU TRADE IN THOSE RUBLES FOR BITCHES

do yourself a favor and look through my posts to find instances of me praising, much less justifying Putin's actions in any way shape or form and spare yourself from looking like an idiot.

[Mihalik]

That 578m euro yacht was in Iceland for 3 months or so last summer and stayed in Reykjavik harbor for about a months, saw it everyday, it's so fucking ugly.

Yes...but....it has GOLD PLATED BATHROOM FIXTURES! (Which probably explains why the Russian conscripts are eating 10 year past due date rations).

[Easo]

I wonder how many people Navalny will get into streets tomorrow, for the planned protests. I expect them to achieve literally nothing, but the constant attempts do have to give at least some more people reason to pause and think about the bullshit coming from state TV's.

And I do not like this from today:

President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Schulz asked for a ceasefire but Vladimir Putin did not show any willingness to end the war in Ukraine, Mr Macron's office says.

because that is in line with Putler's speech about fully comitting to this.

Everything we've seen from them the past 20 or so days seem to indicate otherwise.

Even if not idiots. They are pathological liars who also happen to be profoundly incompetent and corrupt beyond our wildest estimates.

Those memes and stereotypes will get you far, I am sure of it.

[Elegiac]

Those memes and stereotypes will get you far, I am sure of it.

Pointing out that the Russian government and the defense sector in particular is massively crippled by huge levels of corruption is not a meme, nor a stereotype. Especially when we have actual evidence of the results in Ukraine.

Like, this has been a known issue for decades now. I'm really not sure what you think you're accomplishing by dismissing any criticism of Russia's competence.

[Easo]

Pointing out that the Russian government and the defense sector in particular is massively crippled by huge levels of corruption is not a meme, nor a stereotype. Especially when we have actual evidence of the results in Ukraine.

Like, this has been a known issue for decades now.

And it has zero connection to the idea that Russia is running out of ballistic/cruise missiles. It's pure meme and stereotype level.

[Elegiac]

And it has zero connection to the idea that Russia is running out of ballistic/cruise missiles.

You mean aside from said corruption leading to a disconnect between officially reported figures and the actual inventory, which is a problem that was a thing even in the Soviet era?

Meanwhile, your rebuttal seems to be "well they aren't using up their entire inventory because they couldn't possibly be that stupid" when every bit of evidence from how this invasion is being conducted points to massive incompetence on the Kremlin's part - yes, it's entirely reasonable to suggest they are in fact that stupid.

Hanlon's Razor is a thing, especially in politics and especially in politics that are centered around foolish and corrupt old men. The only meme here is "RUSSIA STR0NK".

[Afrospinach]

Russia takes this fight into outer space! Trying to threaten other countries with crashing the ISS into them. #Creative

Is that covered by insurance?

If so can provide GPS co ordinates for my house, this I gotta see.

Wasn't this a red alert 3 weapon? Dump a bunch of space junk on someone, Soviet power of course.

[Iphie]

Is that covered by insurance?

If so can provide GPS co ordinates for my house, this I gotta see.

Wasn't this a red alert 3 weapon? Dump a bunch of space junk on someone, Soviet power of course.

It was, and it was augmented by the magnetic beam power.

[Easo]

You mean aside from said corruption leading to a disconnect between officially reported figures and the actual inventory, which is a problem that was a thing even in the Soviet era?

Meanwhile, your rebuttal seems to be "well they aren't using up their entire inventory because they couldn't possibly be that stupid" when every bit of evidence from how this invasion is being conducted points to massive incompetence on the Kremlin's part - yes, it's entirely reasonable to suggest they are in fact that stupid.

Hanlon's Razor is a thing, especially in politics and especially in politics that are centered around foolish and corrupt old men. The only meme here is "RUSSIA STR0NK".

Every bit of evidence? Which would that be? Tractors stealing abandoned tanks pretty much has ended, but you, Mihalik and others seem to think Russian army is incompetent. Truly, the initial events have left such a mark that the rest is being ignored.

As I said before, I could sell pretty much any shit lost by Ukraine as Russian, most would just blindly believe it.
Yes, I am armchair general, I know. But it doesn't take much knowledge (freely available, but knowing Russian in this conflict helps immensely) to at least partially see what is happening.

These guys really do not think Russia is running out of missiles, and no, they, unlike me, are not some random dudes on the internet:
https://twitter.com/Missile_Defense/...00442894061569

[Zaydin]

I said it before, got mocked for it and will say it again: The Russian military is a god damn paper tiger and this is just proving it.

Sure, the Russian army looked strong on paper but they are struggling to beat a nation whose military is a fraction of the size of their own. Russian equipment is old and poorly maintained, ironically enough, due to the rampant corruption Putin has encouraged/enabled to enrich the oligarchs who have helped keep him in power all these years because he made them rich.

How much money that was supposed to go towards replacing and maintaining aging equipment instead ended up in some corrupt oligarchs bank account or some corrupt army officers?

[uuuhname]

But diplomacy implies that the two sides want to negociate and cooperate in good faith. And we perfectly know that Putin's demands are unacceptable for Ukraine.

that is on Putin, as I said Biden's current stance on the conflict is the one that makes using nukes well outside the realm of possibility. and this isn't an ideal world where we can expect every actor to be rational. the response to that isn't further escalation.

[Kronik85]

So we get takes that boil down to "US bad, NATO bad, West bad" that in no way to translate to an actual political position. Hassan is one such person who traffics in these sorts of takes another with Vaush, TYT, and others.

Hassan is obviously an idiot. Vaush has fairly sensible foreign policy takes because he gets them from Destiny and then reframes them to try and avoid rhetorical or optical L's with his audience.