Sunday’s reported attacks come three days after two Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps members were reportedly killed in Syria in an Israeli airstrike. While smaller rocket and mortar strikes by Iran-backed proxies in Iraq and Syria, as well as suicide drone attacks, have become more common since the 2020 missile attack, ballistic missiles have not been used since.
Their reported launch from Iranian territory outside Tabriz would further represent a dramatic escalation, one that would likely warrant U.S. retaliation. The U.S. did not retaliate after the January 2020 missile attack and while dozens of soldiers were reportedly injured, no one was killed.
The attack also comes as the U.S., Iran, and other nations, continue talks in Vienna regarding the Iranian nuclear program in search of a new deal after the U.S. withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018.
The targeting is what is key here. If Iran targeted something under construction or an area where nobody should be, the messaging is focused on displaying/reminding/signaling the capability and the will to use it.
Russia is also close to Iran. This is a very convenient distraction, although that is just conjecture. If this target area was a place where people usually are, along with other operational capabilities, the intent changes. Regardless it is a major escalation, but maybe not one worth meeting at this time considering everything else going on in the world.