Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Zaydin]

9 killed, 57 injured in Russian attack targeting military range near Lviv
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-pounds...080102308.html

Wherein my sense of dread I mentioned a week or so ago that NATO is going to get dragged into this whether we want to or not just keeps growing.

[PhaelixWW]

Wherein my sense of dread I mentioned a week or so ago that NATO is going to get dragged into this whether we want to or not just keeps growing.

Putin doesn't want that, but he also doesn't want NATO countries to keep funneling aid and weapons into Ukraine through the west to wreak even more havoc on his invading troops.

This seems to me to be his attempt to cut off that supply without attempting to fire on an actual aid convoy, which would carry even more of a risk of bringing NATO directly into the conflict.

I've honestly been expecting a strike like this at Lviv for most of a week, as aid keeps pouring in.

I also don't think it's going to stop the aid coming, however, so... yeah.

[Yunru]

So a bit interesting news. A creator of a hentai game (wich i will not name for duh reasons) is sending money he made from his game as a support to Ukraine.
Not a propaganda, its real. Kinda funny tho. If you search hard on internet you can probaly find the link.
Creator is Japanese.

[Joszef Kiprich]

I think it safe to say to not Google that while at work.

[Afrospinach]

Yes I think UAE and India's abstaining vote is due to trade reasons.

I think India turning on Russia would functionally disarm their military since they seem to buy lots of Russian military stuff.

They of course have this thing with both China and Pakistan. Not a couple of years ago there was a border incident with China that did involve some military personally getting killed iirc.

[Slant]

Jesus fuck. Does nobody understand politics?

"Distraction" in this context is not literal distraction, where they just don't notice the damn thing. Distraction in political context is where they choose to downplay the incident and not respond because they don't want to escalate on a second vector while they're already engaged in preventing getting embroiled in a war with Russia.

That's not to say that the US would successfully be distracted enough to not respond, but the possibility certainly might have played into Iran's decision-making process.

Also, the fact that no US facilities were hit (at least that have been admitted so far) makes this a bit of an odd incident, especially with everything else.

The last attack of this nature occurred after Trump killed Soleimani, though that one resulted in some non-fatal casualties on the US side.

I think you took my analogy a little bit too literal.

But fair enough, point taken.

- - - Updated - - -

Wherein my sense of dread I mentioned a week or so ago that NATO is going to get dragged into this whether we want to or not just keeps growing.

Watch this and let me know how it changes your view:



Probably the most interesting 45 minutes I've watched the past two weeks. With some actual insight and blunt assessments. Also, her closing comment is pretty savage...

[YUPPIE]

why are you people dreading NATO getting involved? Many posters here have illustrated that if Putin wages war against NATO, they will easily kill him and that it wouldn't even be close.

[Poopymonster]

why are you people dreading NATO getting involved? Many posters here have illustrated that if Putin wages war against NATO, they will easily kill him and that it wouldn't even be close.

They believe if NATO gets involved, Putin knows he's gonna get mounted and mastered, so he'll say "Fuck it" and push The Red Button creating a world that in a few millennia will be fine. Without us. Humans.

[Gorsameth]

why are you people dreading NATO getting involved? Many posters here have illustrated that if Putin wages war against NATO, they will easily kill him and that it wouldn't even be close.

A conventional war is not the issue NATO would utterly crush Russia. The problem is that the chance of a nuclear was is infinitely greater if NATO and Russia fight directly.

[Magical Mudcrab]

A conventional war is not the issue NATO would utterly crush Russia. The problem is that the chance of a nuclear was is infinitely greater if NATO and Russia fight directly.

Oi, stop it with your lies. Just because NATO has more personnel, more military vehicles, more drones, more ships, better technology, better training, more funding, contains members with longstanding experience in urban warfare, has the capacity to immediately attack Russia on all but their southern front as their advantages and Russia's only advantage is their number of nukes doesn't mean their only advantage is their nuclear arsenal, OK? I mean really, think about what the enlightened Schlacker say at a time like this (and by this, I mean other than blaming the Ukranian civilians for being bombarded)!

[Easo]

So here it is, the Russia's threats about foreign help were not empty words.

Ukrainian counterattack retook Volnovaha is what they are saying, which is the key to controlling the highway and also breaks Russian supply lines.

As I said, grain of salt

They clearly did not do that, especially after all those equipment losses. And judging by how many are intact - serious lack of fuel, as was expected. Bombing of the fuel storage since the start of war has to be giving effect.
Bucket of salt.

Even a thousand KIA within the span of slightly over two weeks is an abysmal showing by modern standards.

Like I pointed out; in the 6 month duration of Desert Storm, coalition losses due to hostile action were less than two hundred. And that was in 1990.



Whataboutism. And I've already linked the post where Skroe pointed out the differences in the procurement and maintenance strategies between Russia and the US that make the latter's retention of any Cold War era equipment far less of a problem.



"Methodically advancing" = "winning by virtue of numerical disparity". There are still plenty of counts of stupid shit.



I do not give a shit as to what the Russian Ministry of Defense claims since, unlike Ukraine, it's nearly impossible to independently verify them by design.

This really stinks of the same crap centrists espouse on any political issue where they assume taking a middle ground between two sides is inherently more reasonable regardless of any differences in credibility between said sides.

What are modern standards? Same ones to whom loss of 10 soldiers makes headlines? Lol.
This is not Desert Storm. At least you could have tried comparing to 2003 war, because that was the last large scale war and, preferably, with actual differences noted...
I don't care about Skroe and his chest beating of USA da best, Russkies dumb.
Your comparision is made in your head, I meant methodically advancing, leave the "omg Russians can only do mass zerg rushes until enemy runs out of bullets" for stupid stereotypes.
Russian MoD videos are quite clear, if you wanna lalalaland, then be my guest.

And your political views are something I really not care about.

See, at some point in a conflict, you've got to put your cards on the table and show what you got.

That day, for Russia, has been about two weeks ago. Since then, they're somehow collecting a massive and above all embarassing death toll of Russian boys, losing heavy Russian equipment and weaponry to the opponent and generally are as competent as a blind guy sitting in a car.

If there's some secret master plan behind all this... it's the shittest secret master plan in the history of human planning. And I'm taking it all the way back to humans thinking it's a smart idea to wrestle a sabre tooth for funsies.

What you see right now? That's what you got. There is no military strategy saying you need to incurr massive losses unto yourself to somehow lure the enemy into a false sense of security. Why? Cos what they're doing is emboldening Ukrainian resolve. The reason this shitshow has been carrying on for two weeks is because Ukrainians actually think they have a chance. Why do all these talks end in nothing? Because every single time Selensky's offer is the same. Fuck off and we'll let you go. And his condition also never changes, complete sovereignity for Ukraine in all aspects. Why the hell would he change it? The longer he drags it out, the better he looks. And the more damage he inflicts on Russia so maybe tomorrow they'll rethink if they attack Ukraine again. There is no reason for Selensky to ever back down. And oh so many reasons to keep going. And Russia is still pretending they can win wars on propaganda. Turns out, Twitter doesn't keep your soldiers alive. Who'da thunk? Yo Putin, welcome to the real world, bitch.

Edit: Also, whatever Putin thinks he's doing with those nuclear reactors, if something blows and it moves over to Europe, Putin will not be able to convince anyone it wasn't Russia's doing. And all his trollbot armies won't help him, either.

You think Russia put all the cards on the table? Maybe actually do listen to Gaidax for once. If Russia did not care you would have thermobarics, MRLS and tube artillery just leveling Kiev like it's WW2, Ukraine would have long been without eletricity and internet. But they don't do that.

Memes memes memes and stereotypes.

I think it is a case of emptying the storage of thousands pieces of armour. Most of the armour they've lost is old armour that's been somewhat modernized and probably takes a lot of money to maintain. The newest equipment that I've seen be put to use are the various modernized AA systems(Pantsir-S1, Tor) and some aircraft(ie Su-34M, Ka-52). Some pieces of armour stand out, like the BMP-3 and modernized T-72s, which seems to be the majority of their losses. They've gotten rid of a substantial amount of old armour in Syria by giving it to the SAA for free or under a deal that guarantees future investment in the country. I'm amazed that they're using Su-25s for ground support though.

You make a good point about old equipment. They have ~2k modernised T-72's alone, not to mention other tanks, but in this war we can see older variants being used, instead of Russia just dragging the top-end stuff to the frontlines. That's how militaries operate + you can "reduce expenses" later...

But you are not surprised by USA using A-10's for the same role? There is no direct replacement for them. In Karabakh modernised Su-25's were dropping precision munition from outside the Armenian AA range.

If true, how not to improve morale.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianCo...m_source=share

Under Order No. 31, Russian PoWs are traitors to the motherland and will retroactively be decomissioned to prior to the war starting.

Sounds like yet another bullshit. It is counterproductive to army morale. Russia dumb, blah blah, but this would be comical.

[Magical Mudcrab]

Yuppie is wondering why we’d want to avoid either scenario. He’s been actively wishing for nuclear WW3 so he can get drafted.

I wonder who will be the one to explain to Yuppie that nuclear war likely won't involve a military draft, given they're not projected to last very long.

- - - Updated - - -

Russian MoD videos are quite clear, if you wanna lalalaland, then be my guest.

Sorry, but this is the geopolitical equivalent of watching an Alex Jones segment and immediately thinking that BLM has the police beatings coming. The problem with the Russian MoD, like with many groups or entities that have historically spread misinformation, is that none of their information can be verified due to a lack of transparency (and much of the time, further investigation shows that the information provided by these entities is false or misleading), keeping in mind that intentionally obscuring information has been an integral part of the Russian M.O. for almost a century. That's why Russian statements, especially those which have implications that could affect Russia's prestige on the world stage, do not receive the typical "trust but verify" and instead get a cold "distrust but cautiously observe".

[Shadowferal]

Hmf..those that predicted that Kyiv, if not the whole of Ukraine, would fall in the first weekend are still making predictions it seems.

[Magnagarde]

But you are not surprised by USA using A-10's for the same role? There is no direct replacement for them. In Karabakh modernised Su-25's were dropping precision munition from outside the Armenian AA range.

The reason why I'm surprised is because the UA has relatively good AA defenses. The Su-25 stands little chances against them and they seem to be using them the way they used them in Syria, where the rebels didn't have effective AA measures.

The reason why I'm not surprised by the use of the A-10 by the US is because, for the past decade, the US deployed them to support ground troops against insurgents who weren't nearly as well-equipped as the UA is. If the insurgents they attacked had the AA measures the UA does, A-10s would be falling out of the sky all the time. The Su-25 can operate outside of Ukrainian airspace and Russia has developed systems which allow them to do so, but I think that sending one into Ukraine now is a suicide mission for the pilot. Even the modernized Su-30SM and the Su-34, a much more modern strike aircraft compared to the Su-25, has been unable to effectively use EW and AA countermeasures.

I suspect that today's strikes inside Lviv's region has resulted in the destruction of large caches of recently supplied ATGMs and MANPADs. The UA was probably using the airports in Western Ukraine as comms and supply centres, most likely having NATO advisors embedded within their ranks. I wouldn't be surprised if NATO advisors and specialists died in the bombardment of the military airports around Lviv. We'll see what will happen now because strikes in Lviv are where it'll really hurt Ukraine's supply lines; most importantly, we'll see how NATO will respond to this. The Russians struck the target via long-range missile strikes, making a closure of airspace above Western Ukraine an obsolete move.

[Gaaz]

You know what I mean. Putin has to know that he can't take Ukraine and NATO on at the same time when his army is already struggling to take on the Ukrainian military despite outnumbering them.

Actually, it is the other way round. At least when it comes to Russian troop numbers that are actually in Ukraine. Ukrainians outnumbered them roughly 1.5-2 to 1 even during peace times, our army being roughly 400k. But you should bear in mind that about 1 million is in reserve (ex military who are obligated to serve at times like these). That means about 1.4 million soldiers with military experience in total. Against about 200k of the invading force. They are concentrated in several key areas however, while our military is spread much thinner. Also, I very much doubt that UAF will manage even 700k in practice, since most are not willing to fight for government crooks despite the overwhelming propaganda. Russians are also much, much better equipped, so that tips scales to their advantage a little.

[Easo]

Sorry, but this is the geopolitical equivalent of watching an Alex Jones segment and immediately thinking that BLM has the police beatings coming. The problem with the Russian MoD, like with many groups or entities that have historically spread misinformation, is that none of their information can be verified due to a lack of transparency (and much of the time, further investigation shows that the information provided by these entities is false or misleading), keeping in mind that intentionally obscuring information has been an integral part of the Russian M.O. for almost a century. That's why Russian statements, especially those which have implications that could affect Russia's prestige on the world stage, do not receive the typical "trust but verify" and instead get a cold "distrust but cautiously observe".

I do think there is difference between Russian MoD "briefings" and actual combat videos (hard to fake the landing in Hostomel, for obvious reasons). The reality on the ground is that West is not the only place with high-end guided precision weapons, just that Russian MoD failed to grasp the importance of showing videos from them. Again, Karabakh, Azeris went super heavy into it, it paid off.

The reason why I'm surprised is because the UA has relatively good AA defenses. The Su-25 stands little chances against them and they seem to be using them the way they used them in Syria, where the rebels didn't have effective AA measures.

The reason why I'm not surprised by the use of the A-10 by the US is because, for the past decade, the US deployed them to support ground troops against insurgents who weren't nearly as well-equipped as the UA is. If the insurgents they attacked had the AA measures the UA does, A-10s would be falling out of the sky all the time. The Su-25 can operate outside of Ukrainian airspace and Russia has developed systems which allow them to do so, but I think that sending one into Ukraine now is a suicide mission for the pilot. Even the modernized Su-30SM and the Su-34, a much more modern strike aircraft compared to the Su-25, has been unable to effectively use EW and AA countermeasures.

I suspect that today's strikes inside Lviv's region has resulted in the destruction of large caches of recently supplied ATGMs and MANPADs. The UA was probably using the airports in Western Ukraine as comms and supply centres, most likely having NATO advisors embedded within their ranks. I wouldn't be surprised if NATO advisors and specialists died in the bombardment of the military airports around Lviv. We'll see what will happen now because strikes in Lviv are where it'll really hurt Ukraine's supply lines; most importantly, we'll see how NATO will respond to this. The Russians struck the target via long-range missile strikes, making a closure of airspace above Western Ukraine an obsolete move.

Relatively good? Well, I suppose compared to about half of NATO? Yes, before the war (that drone incident was ridiculous). Soviet made S-300 and Buk's, with debatable level of modernisations/maintenance. Everything else is short ranged. Whatever is left of that AA is now cut into pieces of regional resistance (with concentration around Kiev), they don't have control over whole country, thus enabling CAS planes to do attacks.
MANPAD's cannot be supressed and will be used until the last day of the war, but they are also the most ineffective, last line of defense weapon. And there hasn't been enough confirmed plane losses anyway to make Russia worry.

Cruise missiles can be shot down by enforced no-fly zone, though, it's pretty much a small plane moving at jet airliner speeds. Ballistic ones? Not really. Will NATO respond? Nah... I am sure they knew it was coming sooner or later.

Actually, it is the other way round. At least when it comes to Russian troop numbers that are actually in Ukraine. Ukrainians outnumbered them roughly 1.5-2 to 1 even during peace times, our army being roughly 400k. But you should bear in mind that about 1 million is in reserve (ex military who are obligated to serve at times like these). That means about 1.4 million soldiers with military experience in total. Against about 200k of the invading force. They are concentrated in several key areas however, while our military is spread much thinner. Also, I very much doubt that UAF will manage even 700k in practice, since most are not willing to fight for government crooks despite the overwhelming propaganda. Russians are also much, much better equipped, so that tips scales to their advantage a little.

West pretty much saturating Ukraine's infantry with reasonable up to modern ATGM's and MANPAD's (seriously, looking at the videos like every second soldier is carrying something of the kind) is giving Ukrainians a force multiplier. It won't win the war, it but will drag it out, give Ukraine more time.

[Slant]

You think Russia put all the cards on the table? Maybe actually do listen to Gaidax for once. If Russia did not care you would have thermobarics, MRLS and tube artillery just leveling Kiev like it's WW2, Ukraine would have long been without eletricity and internet. But they don't do that.

Memes memes memes and stereotypes.

Never figured you for a Putinista... the nuke option has always been on the table. And it was never removed. But, as the game goes, if Putin puts that card into table, it's him resigning from the game. Along with everyone else. So, yeah. This is it. This is all he got.

Memes and stereotypes? Not really. I just use more news sources than Channel 1 in Russia, like you seem to do. Where's the secret agenda? Where's that secret special forces army that will turn Kyiv over to the Russians oh, 2 weeks ago? Man, you're beyond deluded. I'm not even speculating, I'm just pointing out that... whatever secret plan you think he has? It's shit. And it should be implemented soon, otherwise he's going to have a second Afghanistan at his hands.

[jonnysensible]

lots of talk of a deal today. That only works if Russia folds to Ukraines demands.

Putins all according to plan remark is hilarious, yea your troops getting held up for 3 weeks at gostomol, all planned.

[Poopymonster]

lots of talk of a deal today. That only works if Russia folds to Ukraines demands.

Putins all according to plan remark is hilarious, yea your troops getting held up for 3 weeks at gostomol, all planned.

It was the Adidas ban that brought Vlad to the table.

[Kallisto]

It seems Russia might budge on the whole independent Dombas regions. Especially after Ukraine has pretty much said NATO in 15 years is a no go. But I'm not getting any hopes up until the deal is signed, the ink is dry and everyone is going home.