Russian invasion of Ukraine

[P for Pancetta]

their murderous crown prince hates Biden, a commonality with the man since Trump left office, like how Putin imploded after he left.

Also: 9/11.

The Saudi royalty is made up of opportunists.

You don't seem to understand SA's position at all.

A weak Russia is very good for SA, in fact they have nothing to gain from a strong Russia. Their main source of income is a fossil fuel just like Russia.

[Belize]

They are both autocracies with a callous disregard for human rights whose economy would hardly function without supplying fossil fuels to the West.

Doesn't that just make them mutually exclusive then...? Autocrats don't like other autocrats, and single source economies don't like economies running on the same single source.

[Biglog]

The request for military aid from China is a clever chess move by Russia. They can't possibly actually need the help, they have plenty of their own drones, etc. But what it does is it puts China in the awkward position of being forced to choose sides. If it says no, China upsets Russia and goes back on it's recent claim of unlimited cooperation by Xi. The US and the West if anything is predictable in it's responses. So if China says yes, Russia knows it will likely lead to Western sanctions sooner or later vs. China, pulling them closer to a partnering with Russia in a US/EU standoff.

[Barzotti]

The request for military aid from China is a clever chess move by Russia. They can't possibly actually need the help, they have plenty of their own drones, etc. But what it does is it puts China in the awkward position of being forced to choose sides. If it says no, China upsets Russia and goes back on it's recent claim of unlimited cooperation by Xi. The US and the West if anything is predictable in it's responses. So if China says yes, Russia knows it will likely lead to Western sanctions sooner or later vs. China, pulling them closer to a partnering with Russia in a US/EU standoff.

That's the opposite actually. China isn't forced at all to choose sides and doesn't have to choose sides. If China upsets Russia like you say, what is Russia going to do? China relies heavily on selling stuff to the Western countries, they wouldn't risk sanctions for a very meager and uncertain gain.
And given the massive failure of Russian's army special operation for now, they do indeed need the help. They wouldn't have hired Middle East mercenaries otherwise.

And remember China doesn't have allies, China has only vassals.

[Santti]

That's the opposite actually. China isn't forced at all to choose sides and doesn't have to choose sides. If China upsets Russia like you say, what is Russia going to do? China relies heavily on selling stuff to the Western countries, they wouldn't risk sanctions for a very meager and uncertain gain.
And given the massive failure of Russian's army special operation for now, they do indeed need the help. They wouldn't have hired Middle East mercenaries otherwise.

Yeah. I also don't think Russia will even get that much, should China help. Russia seems to mostly need more soldiers, and I don't think China is going to provide those; just equipment, and more equipment is not really what Russia needs right now. Except maybe more food, but that might be just a failure of logistics, not a lack of food, and I don't know if China can really help in un-fucking Russia's logistical side.

[JohnBrown1917]

They are both autocracies with a callous disregard for human rights whose economy would hardly function without supplying fossil fuels to the West.

SA leadership also pretty much has no coherent ideology beyond what benefits them the most, so whoever is the biggest consumer[and sells them weapons]

[Barzotti]

Yeah. I also don't think Russia will even get that much, should China help. Russia seems to mostly need more soldiers, and I don't think China is going to provide those; just equipment, and more equipment is not really what Russia needs right now.

Imho, the only scenario in which China would risk economical sanctions by helping Russia, is if China gained the control of the entirety of the Russian fossil resources. But that seems quite unlikely.

SA leadership also pretty much has no coherent ideology beyond what benefits them the most, so whoever is the biggest consumer[and sells them weapons]

Indeed, and as long as the USA keeps siding with the Saudis against Iran (the biggest Saudi Arabian enemy, politically, economically and religiously), I don't see why Saudi Arabia would piss them off.

[Draco-Onis]

Personally, I'd rather be vaporized instantly by a megaton-yield nuke than starved to a miserable death in a post-apocalyptic nuclear winter, though.

Agreed, I experienced starvation when I was younger add radiation poisoning not the way I want to go.

[Santti]

Imho, the only scenario in which China would risk economical sanctions by helping Russia, is if China gained the control of the entirety of the Russian fossil resources. But that seems quite unlikely.

What about territory? I don't know if China and Russia still has any disputed territories, but that could one way Russia could entice China. Though, I don't think Russia is currently in the business of giving away any territory, looking at Ukraine and how nostalgic Russia is towards it's former empire status. And the sanctions China would face would make it rather costly indeed, so that seems unlikely.

[Barzotti]

What about territory? I don't know if China and Russia still has any disputed territories, but that could one way Russia could entice China. Though, I don't think Russia is currently in the business of giving away any territory, looking at Ukraine. And the sanctions China would face would make it rather costly indeed, so that seems unlikely.

The Outer Manchuria dispute has been officially settled in 1991.

[jonnysensible]

lol chinas busy doing lockdowns, supply chains are about to eat shit again (or some more) because of Shenzhen.

Doubt China will have much stomach for this Ukraine stuff but I haven't read any expert analysis on it yet so I don't know.

[Yunru]

Yeah. I also don't think Russia will even get that much, should China help. Russia seems to mostly need more soldiers, and I don't think China is going to provide those; just equipment, and more equipment is not really what Russia needs right now. Except maybe more food, but that might be just a failure of logistics, not a lack of food, and I don't know if China can really help in un-fucking Russia's logistical side.

Conscript reporting.

Its quite possible they will just use civilian population to boost the forces. Or even use prisoners to fight for them (as they probaly are cut out from world information and easier to trick into fighting).
They are probaly hiring mercs right now to train some civilains to fight in army.

[Barzotti]

Conscript reporting.

Its quite possible they will just use civilian population to boost the forces. Or even use prisoners to fight for them (as they probaly are cut out from world information and easier to trick into fighting).
They are probaly hiring mercs right now to train some civilains to fight in army.

I think the military value of the civilian population or prisoners is close to zero. It's not like Russia lacks cannon fodder anyway. They need professionalism more than throwing corpses into a meat grinder.

[Santti]

Conscript reporting.

Its quite possible they will just use civilian population to boost the forces. Or even use prisoners to fight for them (as they probaly are cut out from world information and easier to trick into fighting).
They are probaly hiring mercs right now to train some civilains to fight in army.

You mean use the protesters that have been arrested? Use them to fight a war they have been protesting against? What could possibly go wrong? I don't think the civilians are much better, either. Russia has a massive morale problem right now.

[Gorsameth]

Yeah Russia need professional motivated soldiers, not more fodder looking to run away as soon as they can.

[YUPPIE]

not more fodder looking to run away as soon as they can.

deplorable as it is, you can win through sheer attrition. a some 11k estimate legion of raping, murdering psycho cannon fodder armed with rifles on top of your actual army will eventually whittle away a small military

[jonnysensible]

lots of videos of Kadyrov knockin about near kyiv. Hopefully he gets slotted.

[Zaydin]

What about territory? I don't know if China and Russia still has any disputed territories, but that could one way Russia could entice China. Though, I don't think Russia is currently in the business of giving away any territory, looking at Ukraine and how nostalgic Russia is towards it's former empire status. And the sanctions China would face would make it rather costly indeed, so that seems unlikely.

Putin has clung to power this long by appearing strong. If he was so desperate for aid that he handed over 'Russian' territory to China in exchange for aid, how weak would it make him look?

[Draco-Onis]

lol chinas busy doing lockdowns, supply chains are about to eat shit again (or some more) because of Shenzhen.

Doubt China will have much stomach for this Ukraine stuff but I haven't read any expert analysis on it yet so I don't know.

On the financial side China will help if nothing else but to turn Russia into a vassal state completely dependent on them behind the scenes. Xi has to walk a fine line not to get sanctions but the prospect of having Russia as a second North Korea is hard to resist.

[Logwyn]

Slightly off-topic, but it looks like a dozen ballistic missiles were fired from Iran into northern Irag near the US consulate in Erbil. No casualties reported so far.

One wonders if someone's trying to use the war in Ukraine as a distraction.

Isn't that an act of war? Iran-Iraq 1980s all over again?