Hu Wei, vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center, which sits under an advisory agency to China’s state council, argues in an essay penned earlier this month that China must “give up being neutral” and “avoid playing both sides in the same boat.”
While China has made clear that its relationship with Russia has “no limits,” Beijing will only stand to gain from casting its lot with Moscow if the latter manages to defeat Ukraine and withstand western economic sanctions, Hu argues. And so far, in his assessment, that looks unlikely.
“China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible…Being in the same boat with Putin will impact China should he lose power,” Hu writes, adding that Beijing’s failure to “proactively” respond to Russia’s aggression will invite “further containment from the US and the West.”
In fact, China’s current “neutrality” is a lose-lose proposition, Hu argues: “…this position does not meet Russia’s needs, and it has infuriated Ukraine and its supporters as well as sympathizers, putting China on the wrong side of much of the world. In some cases, apparent neutrality is a sensible choice, but it does not apply to this war, where China has nothing to gain.”
Wang Huiyao, president of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization, also sees strategic disadvantages to China of a long drawn-out war in Ukraine.
“The longer the war lasts, the more it will reinvigorate the Western alliance around the idea of a values-based confrontation between East and West, bringing the United States and the European Union into even closer alignment…That is not good for China,” Wang writes in an op-ed published in the New York Times.