Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iliena]

Lmao I won't till he stops being brought up or I get banned again

Lmao indeed! Grow up!

[Slant]

@Easo

Still waiting for that secret master plan of that little bitch Putin...

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...e_of_the_wars/

So far, he's getting the spanking he should have gotten as a 6 year old. Not much of a plan, I dare say.

[Easo]

@Easo

Still waiting for that secret master plan of that little bitch Putin...

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...e_of_the_wars/

So far, he's getting the spanking he should have gotten as a 6 year old. Not much of a plan, I dare say.

I still would like to see from where did you conjure anything about me and some secret master plan, because I clearly said that Russia is not using all force it has - which, unless my English is different from yours, has no relevance to "sekrit planz".
And if he is such a little bitch - then why the hell are you not in Ukraine fighting the Russians?

[Corvus]

Pootie is getting his knickers in a twist about being called a war criminal. Well, there is an obvious answer to that - don't fookin' commit warcrimes.

[Slant]

I still would like to see from where did you conjure anything about me and some secret master plan, because I clearly said that Russia is not using all force it has - which, unless my English is different from yours, has no relevance to "sekrit planz".
And if he is such a little bitch - then why the hell are you not in Ukraine fighting the Russians?

I'm busy powering one of the economies in the EU that support Ukraine with weapon deliveries. And I've directly contributed to the Ukrainian army. So sad for you, you can't send money to Russia... Oh wait, that was a lie. Not sad at all.

[cubby]

There are "reports" (so YUGE grain of salt) that Russia is more than saber rattling regarding the use of nuclear weapons in this war. Ignoring for the moment the "chances" of it happening, and focusing on the how and what form it would take - what would be the first steps in Russia using nuclear weapons, and then how would it escalate?

[Easo]

I'm busy powering one of the economies in the EU that support Ukraine with weapon deliveries. And I've directly contributed to the Ukrainian army. So sad for you, you can't send money to Russia... Oh wait, that was a lie. Not sad at all.

Now that is some chestbeating if I have ever seen one. Funny, how 4th biggest economy in the world (IIRC, you are from Germany) could not spend 2% on the defense, while we in Baltics can. Go be proud somewhere else, please, or at least ensure your military is not given orders by people to whom G36 "melts".
I have donated too. So what? It doesn't make you or me special. And why the hell would I send money to "Russia"?

There are "reports" (so YUGE grain of salt) that Russia is more than saber rattling regarding the use of nuclear weapons in this war. Ignoring for the moment the "chances" of it happening, and focusing on the how and what form it would take - what would be the first steps in Russia using nuclear weapons, and then how would it escalate?

Tactical nuke against some target in Ukraine, obviously, to make a point/show of force/break morale. Pretty much unimaginable, though, and it is something that actually can lead to a coup against Putin.
As for escalation - single nuke would not trigger NATO hard enough. Imho, not a scenario. Unless NATO actually tried to enforce no-fly zone and THEN Russia decides to nuke an airfield in Poland to, again, make a point, which frightens NATO too much and Murica pushes the button.

All of those - highly highly unlikely.

[Xyonai]

I don't think anyone's going to launch nuclear weapons over Ukraine, Russia included.

Despite how little they seem to care about obliterating civilians and bombing random buildings for flimsy reasons, I think the leadership is too proud to bring out the biggest guns against a military target they swore up and down would be easy to conquer. That and the backlash Russia would get for being the first country to launch a nuclear weapon since the fifties would make the scorn they've already acquired for this unjustified invasion pale in comparison.

[jonnysensible]

This is sort of what im seeing so far :

Russia still struggling to get its act together. Its force deployment is still poor. Ukraine is still winning large combined arm fights. Russia is advancing slowly and has been employing more weapons it didn't originally. More EV systems, better force employment, more drones for guided munitions. They have issues with the fundamentals but there are not longer smaller units getting ambushed. They must have adjusted their timetable and plans.

The southern front was the most successful for Russia. They had better forces at the start and brokeout quickly (and advanced quickly). They had rail supplies and established depo's. And have fully encircled Mariopol. The Ukranian marines there are fighting hard though but they are cut off. They are trying to create a southern vector to attack the stacked Ukranian forces.

In the west Russia met stiff resistance and can't get to odessa. They are making gains but the haven't cut off odessa yet.

In the eastern front they can't take kharkiv so they have shelled it to fuck, their units cant assault anything. Russia is trying to envelop the forces there from 2 vectors.

Russian forces are paying high costs and Ukraine are paying average costs (although we dont know much about their forces).

The northern front from Belarus looks pretty bad for Russia. They have to truck all their logistics with no rail access. And the distance is pretty large. They are trying to encircle kyiv, but you can still get in to kyiv from the south.

Russia recon sucks and they got owned in Brovary. But they are slowing fanning out around Kyiv.

Ukraine are successfully ambushing supply lines. Russia still are struggling with Urban terrain. But they are clearing outside towns systematically now, rather than zerg rushing.

Ukraines air is still ok. Russia is still firing long range from inside russia and belarus with its air. 200 sorties a day but very risk averse.

The fsb failed massively in its capabilities, intel and organizing on the ground.

Russia wont have many conventional long range missiles left after this.

I'd be concerned where Putin can go with all this. He has run out of options somewhat. He has crippled his own economy, can't win in Ukraine in any meaningful way that isn't immeasurable painful. Factories are getting closed down for weeks due to lack of parts which is the kind of unrest he doesn't want. Those provisional towns could get moody within Russia when people stop getting paid.

Russia really looks like it will become combat ineffective in the next few weeks because of losses. Hopefully these negotiations work out.

Russia cant achieve regime change or control over Ukraine. So it will have to settle for much less. I think they will give the fighting more of a chance but they are going to need a ceasefire in the next few weeks because they have to replenish their forces, fix units that are combat ineffective and get more material in.

This war is devastating for both countries. Ukraine could actually win and Russia is devastated either way. I think this ends in negotiations but that might be wishful thinking. I do not want to see an assault on Kyiv.

[PhaelixWW]

There are "reports" (so YUGE grain of salt) that Russia is more than saber rattling regarding the use of nuclear weapons in this war. Ignoring for the moment the "chances" of it happening, and focusing on the how and what form it would take - what would be the first steps in Russia using nuclear weapons, and then how would it escalate?

The only way I could see it happening would be a small nuke smuggled in and for which Russia would attempt to blame it on a false flag Ukrainian operation. Not like anyone would fall for such an unbelievable lie.

I'm also not sure what good it would do for the Russian situation in Ukraine anyway. Anything that could be accomplished that way could be accomplished by less drastic measures.

[Xyonai]

I think the fact that Russia didn't Blitz Ukraine in the way they had hoped completely fucked up whatever Putin's Endgame was. Like Putin can't be so naïve to think that he can just occupy the country at this point, even with his armies getting their shit together - slowly - they've still wasted so much time and capital these first few weeks and the defenders are still getting steady shipments of arms and armor from more powerful countries; so the continued assault and attacks on non-military infrastructure feel like it's just him trying to soften Ukraine up for a better pull-out deal.

[jonnysensible]

trying to soften Ukraine up for a better pull-out deal.

the problem is after killing 10,000 + people there is no real way Ukraine can accept Russia anything less than Russian withdrawal from Donbas, including Donetsk & Luhansk. Maybe they agree something on Crimea but thats all. Russian can go fuck itself. And Ukraine should go full mossad with some SBU revenge corps in anycase.

Would be happy to see Russian oligarchs getting ganked and having to wonder if it was GRU or Ukranians doing it.

[Gorsameth]

A 'small' nuclear strike might in isolation work to bring Ukraine to heel but surely in the larger picture you have to wonder if the rest of the world would allow that to happen. The first military use of a nuke since ww2 to force a blatant invasion and annexation? That's not going to be ignored. I would consider direct military intervention by NATO (or an alliance of totally not NATO countries) more likely after then before.

Russia already underestimated the international response, do they want to get the reaction to a nuke wrong as well?

[jonnysensible]

lol i thought this stuff had stopped : https://twitter.com/5inan_/status/1504175258349281290

wonder when it was taken.

[Draco-Onis]

A 'small' nuclear strike might in isolation work to bring Ukraine to heel but surely in the larger picture you have to wonder if the rest of the world would allow that to happen. The first military use of a nuke since ww2 to force a blatant invasion and annexation? That's not going to be ignored. I would consider direct military intervention by NATO (or an alliance of totally not NATO countries) more likely after then before.

Russia already underestimated the international response, do they want to get the reaction to a nuke wrong as well?

They don't need a nuclear strike they can use something similar to the mother of all bombs and get the same results. Frankly I don't think the world should go to WWIII over Ukraine.

[Edge-]

lol i thought this stuff had stopped : https://twitter.com/5inan_/status/1504175258349281290

wonder when it was taken.

Sick beats, yo. Like, are they editing this shit on the fly on their phones or something?

[Xyonai]

the problem is after killing 10,000 + people there is no real way Ukraine can accept Russia anything less than Russian withdrawal from Donbas, including Donetsk & Luhansk. Maybe they agree something on Crimea but thats all. Russian can go fuck itself. And Ukraine should go full mossad with some SBU revenge corps in anycase.

Would be happy to see Russian oligarchs getting ganked and having to wonder if it was GRU or Ukranians doing it.

Oh I didn't say the plan was fool proof, but in a fucked up way I can see the logic of indiscriminate bombings and using them as both a warning and a means to hold the general populace hostage. Put pressure on the leader through citizens who might implore them to just sign whatever it takes to keep their family and friends from being murdered.

But that assumes the defending force won't just be incensed and rise against such blatant atrocities, rather than be cowed by them.

[Easo]

This is sort of what im seeing so far :

I almost want to say you copied it from somewhere, sorry not sorry, but in general it is quite good analysis.
Things to note:

As you said - they have regrouped and started doing stuff properly (though this happened basically after the first week), after getting painful lessons that this won't be repeat of 2014. Guarded supply columns, systematic clearing, no more zerg rushing, etc.

Ukraine is paying hard costs - we don't see them (we actually kinda do, at least partly...) because Russian MoD is bunch of monkeys who do not know that you need to do what Azeris did in Karabakh, what Ukraine is doing now - win media war by flooding it with every single successful attack video. This, however, is changing too, Russian MoD has started to release more and more strike videos. Fog of war is a thing.
We can, with almost absolute certainty say that Ukraine has serious supply issues with fuel and artillery shells in the Donbas, and that they cannot do large scale maneuvering.

For Russian supply in the north to improve they have to take the cities first - this will allow railways to function (so the same thing as in south can happen). But that means forcing sieges of cities, like in Mariupol (battles are nearing the city center now) and those take time...

Air is... debatable. Ukraine clearly is not doing any large scale raids for obvious reasons (not much left to do them with), but Buks and the rare S-300 units alive still have missiles to use - thus there are local points of resistance and threats to RuAF. Definitely concentrated aroud Kiev, though. MANPAD saturation (thanks West!) means heli attacks have risks and bad weather forcing planes to attack from lower altitudes, thus exposing them to more AA.

As per CSIS - Russia should have more than enough missiles actually, and, IIRC, they are capable of making hundreds per year (all types together).

No, Ukraine cannot win the war as such. They can, however, drag it out until the peace deal (as long as there is no collapse in any sector of the front), which, hopefully, will happen soon and all this hype of the last couple of days about talks progressing is not just empty air.

the problem is after killing 10,000 + people there is no real way Ukraine can accept Russia anything less than Russian withdrawal from Donbas, including Donetsk & Luhansk. Maybe they agree something on Crimea but thats all. Russian can go fuck itself. And Ukraine should go full mossad with some SBU revenge corps in anycase.

Would be happy to see Russian oligarchs getting ganked and having to wonder if it was GRU or Ukranians doing it.

Ukraine absolutely cannot force Russia to withdraw from Donbas. Maybe, maybe some kind of federation will be done, though I don't think that could last long. As Gaidax said - it is likely to be the biggest question and issue of the talks. Crimea is lost case, of course.
Ukraine absolutely should not do that (btw, they have tried, back in 2016 in Crimea, IIRC, did not go that well), it's stupid risk. Russia have more resources to answer it. It's not a game.

lol i thought this stuff had stopped : https://twitter.com/5inan_/status/1504175258349281290

wonder when it was taken.

Very recently. Also clearly they are more or less unscathed, considering there is no followup video. You cannot stop all of such attacks. I saw both sides do this repeatedly to each other.

[Draco-Onis]

Ukraine absolutely cannot force Russia to withdraw from Donbas. Maybe, maybe some kind of federation will be done, though I don't think that could last long. As Gaidax said - it is likely to be the biggest question and issue of the talks. Crimea is lost case, of course.
Ukraine absolutely should not do that (btw, they have tried, back in 2016 in Crimea, IIRC, did not go that well), it's stupid risk. Russia have more resources to answer it. It's not a game.

I think too many people think this is a movie where the scrappy good guys win and the bad guy dies at the end. Russia can level Ukraine into oblivion making them fight over the rubble, if Russia feels that they have nothing to lose they may do just that. There is no winning story here Ukraine needs to make a deal to save as many lives and infrastructure as possible and that means meeting Russia somewhere in the middle.

Frankly the media is to blame they keep featuring feel good stories making it look like Ukraine is the resistance in star wars or some shit.

[Mehrunes]

That is quite an interesting take - considering how scared Germany is of any mention of swastika, their dislike for military and how much they still keep paying Israel (look at subs and corvettes, to give you a hint).

Oh, right, and let me add the total course reversal regarding military after this war started - it was something unimaginable.

It becomes less of an "interesting take" when you just look at how even their first post-WWII chancellor staunchly opposed denazification. To the point where he tried to put a mere 15 years statute of limitation on Nazi war crimes, which required condemnation from the rest of the western world for him to drop.

Lmao I won't till he stops being brought up or I get banned again

Slant has been whitewashing the Nazis by pretending that the victims of his country during WWII included just the Jews and that anything more than 6 million is "propaganda" for years now despite non-Jewish victims being repeatedly pointed out to them, so don't expect this to stop anytime soon.