Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Easo]

I think too many people think this is a movie where the scrappy good guys win and the bad guy dies at the end. Russia can level Ukraine into oblivion making them fight over the rubble, if Russia feels that they have nothing to lose they may do just that. There is no winning story here Ukraine needs to make a deal to save as many lives and infrastructure as possible and that means meeting Russia somewhere in the middle.

Frankly the media is to blame they keep featuring feel good stories making it look like Ukraine is the resistance in star wars or some shit.

Yeah. It still seems clear that Russia too does not want this to drag out, the tone is changing, so chances for both countries to meet somewhere in the middle increases.
Ukraine cannot win, but it might get away with survivable losses (think Finland in WW2), while Russia does not achieve everything from Putler's two speeches, still ensures Ukraine is not going to join anything for couple decades and can get away at home by going into propaganda overdrive about "victory over nazis".
Though I gotta say, some of the stuff Putin keeps repeating makes me affraid that we are all wrong.

I would also add the average person's lack of understanding the military (most are at level where every green militarish looking vehicle is a "tank") and too much judging by videos from Twitter which show absolutely onesided view without general overview of the whole conflict + unrealistic view about how wars are fought.
Maybe I am just too jaded.

It becomes less of an "interesting take" when you just look at how even their first post-WWII chancellor staunchly opposed denazification. To the point where he tried to put a mere 15 years statute of limitation on Nazi war crimes, which required condemnation from the rest of the western world for him to drop.

Thing is, in immediate post-war Germany pretty much every adult male of working age was somehow connected to the Nazi regime (a reminder that every ~tenth German was in the party), whether directly or in supporting roles. Country had to be rebuilt and you cannot arrest everyone, Cold War loomed, etc. etc, thus some hard choices had to be made.
So certain people got jobs and positions of influence, while only most outrageous figures (or the too loud ones) were barred.

[PhaelixWW]

It's official.

The Guardian: US to send Switchblade drones and anti-aircraft Stingers to Ukraine

The United States has committed to more military aid to Ukraine, including long-range missile defence and Switchblade armed drones to better defend against Russian aircraft and armour from a distance.

According to Agence France-Presse, the new arms and equipment that President Joe Biden announced for Ukraine includes S-300 long-range missile defence systems, ‘kamikaze drones’, anti-aircraft Stingers and ‘saint javelin’ self-guided missiles.

Ukraine has had the ability to shoot down Russian aircraft and cruise missiles at relatively close quarters but Washington is now arranging for it to acquire systems that can strike attacking aircraft much further away.

According to a military source, the systems are the Soviet/Russian-made S-300, which like the US-made Patriot system, is a fully automated, ground-based radar-and-missile launcher unit that can detect, track and fire at multiple incoming aerial threats at long distances.

Washington will also send Ukraine 100 Switchblade drones, essentially camera-equipped, remote-controlled flying bombs that can be directed by an operator to find and then, when ready, plunge onto a target, exploding on contact.

Dubbed “kamikaze drones,” Switchblades can extend the range of attack on Russian vehicles and units to beyond the sight of the user. That gives them an advantage over the guided heat-seeking missiles that Ukrainians have used against Russian tanks.

The United States is also reportedly giving Ukraine 800 more Stingers, which are shoulder-mounted infrared anti-aircraft missiles as well as more lightweight, shoulder-launched self-guided missiles which have become the weapon of choice in the ground war to destroy armoured vehicles at close quarters.

Among those, 2,000 additional US-made javelin missiles will be sent, with dual charges designed to defeat Russian tanks’ anti-missile defences.

The new US arms provisions also include 7,000 other anti-armour weapons, thousands of machine guns, rifles, and grenade launchers, 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition fitting both Russian and Nato standards, and 25,000 sets of body armour and helmets.

[Magnagarde]

There's no need for nukes to be used to make a statement; bringing up nukes whenever there's a war of high geostrategic importance has become a cultural thing. Russia has so much conventional firepower that it doesn't need nukes to raze Kharkiv and Kiev to the ground. They're avoiding doing so because they know they can't conquer and occupy Ukraine, but they have to keep negotiations open in order to wrap this poorly planned war up as soon as possible and present it as a win back at home. Raze a major city to the ground and the negotiations won't be on the table anymore. Even if their goal is to conquer and occupy all of Ukraine, which is very unlikely, they wouldn't want to get in possession of a completely destroyed infrastructure the aforementioned destruction would leave behind. These are all signs they want to negotiate themselves out of this mess, while preserving face. A "tactical nuclear strike" would have the extreme opposite effect of what they need. There is however no telling what can potentially happen if Russia is pushed to the extreme and into a corner.

[Easo]

So, who is gonna give up their long-range AA? Slovakia is pretty much the only option for S-300.

[Draco-Onis]

Yeah. It still seems clear that Russia too does not want this to drag out, the tone is changing, so chances for both countries to meet somewhere in the middle increases.
Ukraine cannot win, but it might get away with survivable losses (think Finland in WW2), while Russia does not achieve everything from Putler's two speeches, still ensures Ukraine is not going to join anything for couple decades and can get away at home by going into propaganda overdrive about "victory over nazis".
Though I gotta say, some of the stuff Putin keeps repeating makes me affraid that we are all wrong.

I would also add the average person's lack of understanding the military (most are at level where every green militarish looking vehicle is a "tank") and too much judging by videos from Twitter which show absolutely onesided view without general overview of the whole conflict + unrealistic view about how wars are fought.
Maybe I am just too jaded.

There's also this scary reality that Ukraine will have to deal with, they now have an entire country where everyone is armed some with very high tech weapons including extremists groups. They aren't going to give up their arms once this conflict is over sure this is the lesser of two evils but we are talking about a situation that can easily lead to a bloody civil war.

[Collegeguy]

Wanna call out Putler's bluff? Poland, who is a quite hawkish regarding Russia, got cold feet.

Of course a bluff should be called. That's why it's called a bluff. If it isn't obvious by now, Russia has always been a pretentious weakling.

[Magnagarde]

So, who is gonna give up their long-range AA? Slovakia is pretty much the only option for S-300.

Bulgaria comes to mind.

[PhaelixWW]

So, who is gonna give up their long-range AA? Slovakia is pretty much the only option for S-300.

Indeed.

CNN: Slovakia has preliminarily agreed to send key Soviet-era air defense system to Ukraine, sources say

Slovakia has preliminarily agreed to provide Ukraine with a key Soviet-era air defense system to help defend against Russian airstrikes, according to three sources familiar with the matter, but the US and NATO are still grappling with how to backfill that country’s own defensive capabilities and the transfer is not yet assured.

According to two of the sources, Slovakia, one of three NATO allies that have the defense systems in question, wants assurances that the systems will be replaced immediately.

If a country provided its S-300s, the supplying country is likely to receive the US-made Patriot air defense missile system to backfill the capability it would be giving up, according to two other sources familiar with the negotiations.

Germany and the Netherlands have already publicly announced that they are sending Patriots to Slovakia. But integrating a new, complex air defense system into a country’s existing military architecture, as well as training its forces to use it, can take time, one source familiar with the matter cautioned.

The push to get more S-300s into the hands of the Ukrainians comes as Congress has been pressing the Biden administration to help Ukraine obtain the air defense system. Lawmakers in both parties, who heard from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a speech Wednesday morning, have urged the US needed to do more to help Ukraine obtain the weapons it’s seeking, particularly after the administration opposed a plan last week to provide Ukraine with Polish MiG-29 jets.

Rep. Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, hinted publicly on Wednesday that the US had made progress in getting Ukraine access to additional S-300s, an anti-aircraft weapon system that congressional sources say Ukraine is already operating effectively against Russia’s assault.

“I’ve been pushing hard for this,” McCaul told CNN’s Jim Sciutto. “I’m proud to say they do have S-300s going in now.”

An aide to McCaul later said he was referring to S-300 systems that have been owned and operated by Ukraine for years. Those systems are already in the country.

More background: CNN previously reported that the State Department has been working to identify which countries currently have S-300s and determine how they could be transferred to Ukraine.

CNN reported earlier Wednesday that other Soviet era air defense systems including the SA8 have already been sent into Ukraine.

[Corvus]

It's official.

The Guardian: US to send Switchblade drones and anti-aircraft Stingers to Ukraine

Sadly only 100 of the suicide Switchblade drones. That isn't many even if they can do some damage.

- - - Updated - - -

The kidnapped mayor of Melitopol has been freed in exchange 9 Russian PoWs, all of them reportedly 18-19 year old conscripts. You know, the ones not meant to be in Ukraine to start with.

[Easo]

There's also this scary reality that Ukraine will have to deal with, they now have an entire country where everyone is armed some with very high tech weapons including extremists groups. They aren't going to give up their arms once this conflict is over sure this is the lesser of two evils but we are talking about a situation that can easily lead to a bloody civil war.

Let's just say that after I saw what happened afterwards of the almost completely uncontrolled issuing of weapons to the civilians (especially in Kiev) I became even more jaded. First few months until normal order of life is brought back everywhere there will be a lot of chaotic episodes.
Plus, the black market in Europe will be flooded. Now that is the biggest problem. Not a question of If, but When.

As for people from organizations like Azov - Ukraine did sideline them after the war in Donbas turned to ceasefire and army recovered, Kiev really did not need the bad image. I am sure they can and will do that again.

Of course a bluff should be called. That's why it's called a bluff. If it isn't obvious by now, Russia has always been a pretentious weakling.

Oh boy... Calling for WW3 seems so easy these days.

Bulgaria comes to mind.

Same issue as with Slovakia due to limited unit count - it means giving up your long range AA. And Patriot's are not a direct replacement, different class altogether.
But looks like we got the answer below.

Indeed.

Well then, I hope this goes better than the Polish MiG-29's.

[PhaelixWW]

Sadly only 100 of the suicide Switchblade drones. That isn't many even if they can do some damage.

I don't expect it to be the last shipment. They're extremely inexpensive, for what they can do.

- - - Updated - - -

Well then, I hope this goes better than the Polish MiG-29's.

Both the logistical issue and the image issue are far less complicated this way.

[Edge-]

The kidnapped mayor of Melitopol has been freed in exchange 9 Russian PoWs, all of them reportedly 18-19 year old conscripts. You know, the ones not meant to be in Ukraine to start with.

Gotta wonder if kidnapping local officials to trade for PoW's is gonna be a core part of the Russian strategy here.

[Corvus]

I don't expect it to be the last shipment. They're extremely inexpensive, for what they can do.

6K a pop is what I've heard. I guess the real issue is manufacture.

[Collegeguy]

Oh boy... Calling for WW3 seems so easy these days.

You're acting daft to call a bluff in the same pretense as WW3. Make up your mind.

[Magnagarde]

Same issue as with Slovakia due to limited unit count - it means giving up your long range AA. And Patriot's are not a direct replacement, different class altogether.
But looks like we got the answer below.

Slovakia it is, at least for now. What I don't understand is why Slovakia would give the S-300 away for the Patriot system, when they are two completely different classes as you mentioned. The Patriot system is in no way a replacement for the S-300, due to the S-300 detection range and missile interception capabilities.

What this leads me to believe, indirectly, is that all of NATO's Eastern Europe is now gearing up for a much bigger level of integration with the US military; within the NATO umbrella of course, but to a much larger extent. This is what made me consider that even Bulgaria could give its S-300 away. The Patriot system is a sound choice for countries that directly border Russia, though Slovakia is the one I'd have expected to keep the S-300.

[Easo]

6K a pop is what I've heard. I guess the real issue is manufacture.

Yeah, I saw something about low rate production due to these things being used by specific, limited forces. USA is not really into suicide drones, too much big boy stuff in use.

Both the logistical issue and the image issue are far less complicated this way.

Personally I expect more missiles blowing something up in Western Ukraine soon/after the delivery, like with that army base where foreign volunteers were gathered.

Slovakia it is, at least for now. What I don't understand is why Slovakia would give the S-300 away for the Patriot system, when they are two completely different classes as you mentioned. The Patriot system is in no way a replacement for the S-300, due to the S-300 detection range and missile interception capabilities.

What this leads me to believe, indirectly, is that all of NATO's Eastern Europe is now gearing up for a much bigger level of integration with the US military, within the NATO umbrella of course. This is what made me consider that even Bulgaria could give its S-300 in exchange for the aforementiond integration and a much stronger NATO presence. The Patriot system is a sound choice for countries that directly border Russia, though Slovakia is the one I'd have expected to keep the S-300.

I think this is a question of doctrine. For West - the overwhelming airforce numbers is the AA. So many attempts by USA and some others to create modern long-range AA (and short range, and medium...), pretty much nothing came of it. SM-6 is the closest thing we got so far and that one is one the ships, not TEL launchers on ground.

[Corvus]

On the matter of 4 Russian generals being KIA in Ukraine - in the BBC's reporting of it, they say it is believed that there were only about 20 Russian generals on the ground in Ukraine to start with. Taking out 20% of those has got to seriously mess up command and control.

[Belize]

Gotta wonder if kidnapping local officials to trade for PoW's is gonna be a core part of the Russian strategy here.

Who are they gonna kidnap to get the tanks tower away by tractors back?

[Edge-]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/u...op-deaths.html

Pentagon officials say that a high, and rising, number of war dead can destroy the will to continue fighting. The result, they say, has shown up in intelligence reports that senior officials in the Biden administration read every day: One recent report focused on low morale among Russian troops and described soldiers just parking their vehicles and walking off into the woods.

Now grains of salt on this, but I feel like we've seen more than a few videos of Russian soldiers abandoning vehicles and fucking off already. I imagine continued losses plus losing more generals (I think they're up to 4 now) will continue to take their toll on troop morale.

[Magnagarde]

I think this is a question of doctrine. For West - the overwhelming airforce numbers is the AA. So many attempts by USA and some others to create modern long-range AA (and short range, and medium...), pretty much nothing came of it. SM-6 is the closest thing we got so far and that one is one the ships, not TEL launchers on ground.

That makes sense, considering the SM-6 has terminal ballistic misisle interception capabilities, which pairs with the approach to airforce. Russia's hypersonic missiles are a nightmare for these systems though, which pairs well with Russia's doctrine that seems to be focusing more and more on interception outside of the atmosphere, what with the S-400 modernization and the S-500 Prometheus.

They know they have no means to match conventially, which is why they're counting on deterrents such as hypersonic missiles. This kind of targeted investment into specific technology that could serve as an effective deterrent is the only viable way for them to keep up while keeping a "relatively small" military budget.

- - - Updated - - -

Now grains of salt on this, but I feel like we've seen more than a few videos of Russian soldiers abandoning vehicles and fucking off already. I imagine continued losses plus losing more generals (I think they're up to 4 now) will continue to take their toll on troop morale.

It is hard to fight an offensive war with no ideological motivation to back it up. Considering the "soldiers" they've sent into Ukraine are barely adults, it isn't hard to imagine that they have no major ideological anchorpoint that could motivate them to risk their lives.