Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Magnagarde]

I think this is a question of doctrine. For West - the overwhelming airforce numbers is the AA. So many attempts by USA and some others to create modern long-range AA (and short range, and medium...), pretty much nothing came of it. SM-6 is the closest thing we got so far and that one is one the ships, not TEL launchers on ground.

That makes sense, considering the SM-6 has terminal ballistic misisle interception capabilities, which pairs with the approach to airforce. Russia's hypersonic missiles are a nightmare for these systems though, which pairs well with Russia's doctrine that seems to be focusing more and more on interception outside of the atmosphere, what with the S-400 modernization and the S-500 Prometheus.

They know they have no means to match conventially, which is why they're counting on deterrents such as hypersonic missiles. This kind of targeted investment into specific technology that could serve as an effective deterrent is the only viable way for them to keep up while keeping a "relatively small" military budget.

- - - Updated - - -

Now grains of salt on this, but I feel like we've seen more than a few videos of Russian soldiers abandoning vehicles and fucking off already. I imagine continued losses plus losing more generals (I think they're up to 4 now) will continue to take their toll on troop morale.

It is hard to fight an offensive war with no ideological motivation to back it up. Considering the "soldiers" they've sent into Ukraine are barely adults, it isn't hard to imagine that they have no major ideological anchorpoint that could motivate them to risk their lives.

[Easo]

Btw, did you notice that Iran finally released Ratcliffe and Ashoori?
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60775180

Keep closer eye to Iran, there is deal brewing, most likely regarding reduction in sanctions in return for partial replacement of losses in Russia. Oil, airspace, etc.

On the matter of 4 Russian generals being KIA in Ukraine - in the BBC's reporting of it, they say it is believed that there were only about 20 Russian generals on the ground in Ukraine to start with. Taking out 20% of those has got to seriously mess up command and control.

Well, grain of salt. Not into guro, but need body for proof. I did see something about one bloodied passport though, so maybe.

Russia has hundreds of generals, they are not gonna run out of those, though it will take a time for replacement to adjust. Those 200k troops are from pretty much every big unit Russia has, mixed together (imho both due to veterancy and to get battle experience more widely shared), it can complicate things.

200k troops, 20 generals - that's 10k for each one. Seems a bit too low, 30-40, due to 10k being roughly two brigades, would be more realistic (1 star brigadier generals). Not an expert on this, though, plus unit sizes are different between countries.

That makes sense, considering the SM-6 has terminal ballistic misisle interception capabilities, which pairs with the approach to airforce. Russia's hypersonic missiles are a nightmare for these systems though, which is why Russia seems to be focusing more and more on interception outside of the atmosphere.

Honestly speaking, Russian push into hypersonics, AA systems out of the ass, widespread EW units is because they cannot directly compete with NATO. USSR is gone, they cannot build and upkeep enough for parity, so asymmetric approach was chosen to maximise the potential of their armed forces. That's why Russia chose to build super fast maneuverable missiles (and yes, West is failing so far regarding this, Skroe probably is raging about it), hundreds of super long range AA systems and emphasis on submarines with, again, such missiles. All of that is cheaper than aircraft carriers, big destroyers and thousands of planes.

[Breccia]

So how badly screwed is Russia?

1) Putin is warning against the "traitors" in his own country that aren't following his orders.

Of course they (the West) will try to bet on the so-called fifth column, on traitors - on those who earn their money here, but live over there. Live, not in the geographical sense, but in the sense of their thoughts, their slavish thinking.

Any people, and especially the Russian people, will always be able to distinguish the true patriots from the scum and the traitors, and just to spit them out like a midge that accidentally flew into their mouths.

"The true patriots" that sounds like Trump talk. And Far Cry 6. You know, comically absurd dictators.

2) Russia makes a deep fake Zelensky who surrenders. Yeah, that's an extension of the Trump deep fake they used a few days ago.

Call me crazy, but I find it's hard to believe the Ukrainians throwing molotovs at tanks will accept "My name-a the Zelensky and I surrender to great Russian leader Putin" from a random channel, even one of their own.

3) Putin's "peace plans" for Ukraine sound a lot like what Manafort and Kilimnik was pushing for. In case there are any cultists out there claiming this would never have happened under Trump.

4) Oh, speaking of which, Greene is now demanding Ukraine surrender and that the US send no more aid. In case there are any remaining cultists out there claiing this would never have happened under Trump.

5) Oh, speaking of speaking of which, the Ukrainian ambassador Trump fires spells out that Trump directly emboldened Putin, by showing Putin that Trump was going to do nothing to stop him, and in fact make it easier to take Ukraine.

6) US military intel estimates Russia has lost 7,000 troops. In case there are any cultists out there asking for casualty estimates that aren't Ukrainian, congrats, this is higher than the last one.

The NYTimes puts this in context several ways.

In 36 days of fighting on Iwo Jima during World War II, nearly 7,000 Marines were killed. Now, 20 days after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia invaded Ukraine, his military has already lost more soldiers, according to American intelligence estimates.

and

It is a staggering number amassed in just three weeks of fighting, American officials say, with implications for the combat effectiveness of Russian units, including soldiers in tank formations. Pentagon officials say a 10 percent casualty rate, including dead and wounded, for a single unit renders it unable to carry out combat-related tasks.

With more than 150,000 Russian troops now involved in the war in Ukraine, Russian casualties, when including the estimated 14,000 to 21,000 injured, are near that level. And the Russian military has also lost at least three generals in the fight--

Four, but y'all covered that.

Pentagon officials say that a high, and rising, number of war dead can destroy the will to continue fighting. The result, they say, has shown up in intelligence reports that senior officials in the Biden administration read every day: One recent report focused on low morale among Russian troops and described soldiers just parking their vehicles and walking off into the woods.

The high rate of casualties goes far to explain why Russia’s much-vaunted force has remained largely stalled outside of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.

“Losses like this affect morale and unit cohesion, especially since these soldiers don’t understand why they’re fighting,” said Evelyn Farkas, the top Pentagon official for Russia and Ukraine during the Obama administration. “Your overall situational awareness decreases. Someone’s got to drive, someone’s got to shoot.”

Now, this could easily explain why Putin has changed strategies somewhat. He's started leaning more heavily on air support (leading directly to more aircraft losses) and arresting his own intelligence officers. Putin is just unwilling to lose -- and is willing to sacrifice wave after wave of his own men to accomplish that.

7) This is a minor point, because any Russian politician who's not Putin is largely irrelevant, but, some сука is demanding the US give Alaska back. No, really.

Oleg Matveychev, a member of the state Duma, outlined on Russian state television a set of demands for the U.S. and Ukraine after Kiv's "demilitarization is completed," the Express newspaper in the United Kingdom reported.

The demands include the return of Alaska, which the U.S. purchased from the Russian Empire in 1867 as part of the Alaska Purchase, and the former Russian settlement of Fort Ross, California, 90 miles north of San Francisco.

So it seems that RusOH SHIT I forgot one!

8) Russia's state TV hit by stream of resignations

When Marina Ovsyannikova burst into Russian living rooms on Monday's nightly news, denouncing the war in Ukraine and propaganda around it, her protest highlighted a quiet but steady stream of resignations from Russia's tightly controlled state-run TV.

Hours after Marina Ovsyannikova's on-screen protest, three resignations came to light.

Channel One colleague Zhanna Agalakova quit her job as Europe correspondent while two journalists have left rival NTV. Lilia Gildeyeva had worked for the channel as a presenter since 2006 and Vadim Glusker had been at NTV for almost 30 years.

That BBC article goes on and on with other resignations and rumors of resignations. Considering Putin is trying to slow the spread of outside information, also known as "what's really happening" into the country, and also considering that's basically impossible, the stress on his propaganda puppets telling what they know to be malicious lies, defending someone murdering thousands of his own people and their own people, must be enormous. It's one thing to say "the West wants to kick your puppies" it's another to say "your money is fine, your family is fine except those who all deserted seconds before being shot and it's not a war we're killing Nazis and anyone who says otherwise gets 15 years".

Putin must be feeling extended pressure to change his goals. I don't see the outpouring of support from Belarus and China he needs. I don't see businesses or governments changing their minds. And I don't see Zelensky in chains...yet. With the amount of damage he's taken militarily, economically and popularity, even if he wins, he's losing.

[Zaydin]

So apparently Koch Industries is refusing to pull out of Russia.

As a reminder, the Koch family first made its fortune helping the Soviets set up oil refineries in the 1930s, roughly, if the article I found is accurate.

[Kallisto]

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status...01757420552193 Looks like Chechnya's "leader" is still in Grozny.

[Corvus]

Pootie's latest rant seems almost to be channelling Hitler from Downfall a bit.

7K dead would imply at least 20k+ wounded as well, given modern accept ratios. Add to that desertions and PoWs and you are talking a good 15% of the invasion force out of action. Despite talk of mercenaries, there is little indication of actual reinforcements arriving either. It could be because apparently around 55% of Russia's frontline combat units are already committed to the invasion, and to redeploy others will not only take time but also leaves little in the way of reserves across their vast borders.

Actual, it may be higher. This report says that 75% of Russia's BTGs have been committed to Ukraine.

[tehdang]

Donald Trump’s Unswerving Loyalty To Vladimir Putin On Full Display In CNN Explainer

Unswerving and devotion just a bit exaggerated. It was more of an on-again off-again tongue bath and threat.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CasNv5FAA-k/
Audio frankly has to be heard to be believed.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-re...aid-to-ukraine

Let's keep the rhetoric on the ground, not flying on flights of fancy.

[Edge-]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CasNv5FAA-k/
Audio frankly has to be heard to be believed.

Why are you sharing what appears to be low effort comedy or something?

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-re...aid-to-ukraine

Let's keep the rhetoric on the ground, not flying on flights of fancy.

Are we pretending that there was no additional context to that? That Congress just authorized the aid and Trump sent it? Or are you going to address that it was slightly more complicated than that.

[tehdang]

Why are you sharing what appears to be low effort comedy or something?

Why are you not quoting and responding to the initial point?

Are we pretending that there was no additional context to that? That Congress just authorized the aid and Trump sent it? Or are you going to address that it was slightly more complicated than that.

The president has veto power. Are we pretending that this would've gone through despite Trump refusing it?

[jonnysensible]

lol



SBU doin that work

[Zaydin]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-re...aid-to-ukraine

Let's keep the rhetoric on the ground, not flying on flights of fancy.

You left out the part where Trump tried to withhold military aid to Ukraine in order to extort Ukraine into announcing a phony investigation into then-candidate Biden.

It kind of got him impeached for the first time.

[PhaelixWW]

Japan has spotted 4 Russian amphibious ships heading towards Europe.

Per CNN:

Four Russian warships passed through the Tsugaru Strait in northeastern Japan between Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly transporting troops and combat vehicles to Ukraine, Japan's Defense Ministry said Wednesday.

Per The Guardian:

Pictures of the amphibious transports, typically used for landing expeditionary forces ashore, published by Japan’s defence ministry showed what appeared to be military trucks loaded onto the deck of one of the vessels.

Is Odesa next?

[Cynep]

Asking to disintegrate Russia is the same what Russia is asking Ukraine now. It's stupid and will cause more chaos in the future, as repeatedly said here.

If you are who you say you are then you understand Russian. Here, have a read:

https://lostarmour.info/articles/obs...sta-2014-goda/
https://lostarmour.info/articles/obs...rya-2014-goda/
https://lostarmour.info/articles/obs...rya-2015-goda/
Have some Tochkas too:
https://lostarmour.info/articles/tochki-nad-u/

Before you start complaining about the obviously pro-Russian site (and it is absolutely pro-Russia), take a note that analysis itself is solid. But we also should not forget Human Rights Watch complaining. Or do you not believe them? Wikipedia has all the links... But here are some very obvious ones:
https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/07/24/...ling-civilians
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ing-civilians/

There are no clean hands in civil war. Events of the past make it very likely that indeed Ukraine launched that Tochka (there was another one two days ago). But unless you believe that Russian propaganda made that Tu-141 fly further than it technically can, be my guest.

On the first subtopic - you don't need to convince me, you need to convince people with power in the West that a strong threatening Russia is better for them than weak subjugated remains of Russia. And you need to convince people being bombed in Mariupol etc, that making Russia incapable of bombing them ever again is somehow not good for them.


On the second subtopic - no I don't mind pro-Russian sources. One of the best things I was taught was "When you're studying any historical records written by humans, (professor makes a pause, students chuckle) you must understand that each one of them is biased to some degree. Your job is to extract information from conflicting biased inaccurate tales."

So after clicking your links and doing cursory research,
1. even Russian article doesn't say Tochkas were used in Donetsk;
2. articles about Donetsk are late 2021 early 2022, so not contemporary which sort of ruins their credibility;
3. entire 2014 article is about one single alleged shelling, which sort of corroborates my statement about "couple self-shots";
4. 2015 is airport, proving my words;
5. I'll give you the Human Rights Watch article despite it being openly anti-Ukraine pro-Russia - still, it shows fighting near airport and in southwest outskirts of the city, not really inside;
6. Washington Post link's author is an anti-US pro-Russia shill, check his other articles.


Also, I'll address again the third subtopic: being invaded by Russia is not called a civil war.

1. Yugoslavia wars, they fight each other, then UN intervenes ==> civil war.
2. Yugoslavia/Kosovo, they fight each other, then NATO does democratic bombings ==> civil war.
3. Iraq 2003, USA invades, instability begins much later ==> NO civil war (at relevant time).
4. Georgia/Abkhazia early 1990's, they fight each other, then Russia intervenes ==> civil war.
5. Ukraine 2014, I'll go into more detail.

5.1 Strelkov comes to Crimea, instead of making a real referendum which he would've probably still won, fakes it instead.
5.2 Crimea is annexed, Strelkov comes to Slavyansk, Donetsk is still under Akhmetov at this point.
5.3 Armed Russians are already present on Ukrainian soil, Ukraine begins the ATO. Russia claims "but hands are here!" (I expect you know this indecent joke).

Thus, Ukraine 2014, Russia invades first ==> NO civil war.

[tehdang]

You left out the part where Trump tried to withhold military aid to Ukraine in order to extort Ukraine into announcing a phony investigation into then candidate Biden.

Notably, the concept of "Unswerving Loyalty" is more impacted by instances to the contrary. Also, I think the word you're looking for is "threatened." So, kindly, address how unswerving loyalty jives with examples of disloyalty. Remember that Obama never sent lethal aid.

[PhaelixWW]

SBU doin that work

About that...

[Kallisto]

Japan has spotted 4 Russian amphibious ships heading towards Europe.

Per CNN:


Per The Guardian:


Is Odesa next?

Wouldn't that take weeks to get there though? Even assuming they'd be allowed through suez or bosphorus.

[PhaelixWW]

Wouldn't that take weeks to get there though? Even assuming they'd be allowed through suez or bosphorus.

Well, actually, this article suggests that they're not intending for these ships to be used in the Black Sea and are just using them to bring in more vehicles.

All of Russia’s amphibious forces in the Pacific are on the move, possibly on their way to support Russian forces in Ukraine, Japanese officials said on Wednesday.

Japanese officials say four Russian Navy amphibious warfare ships transited the Tsugaru Strait on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the Japan Ministry of Defense posted on social media on Wednesday that they might be transporting troops and vehicles for operations in Ukraine.

The four ships represent the entire complement of the Russian Navy Pacific Fleet’s amphibious ships. Japan tracked the Nikolay Vilkov, Admiral Nevelskoy and Oslyabya operating in the Sea of Japan and the southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk in February as part of the Russian Navy’s global fleet-wide exercises held in January and February. The photo release then by Japan of Nikolay Vilkov showed it traveling with an empty deck, making it likely that Nikolay Vilkov is now transporting vehicles from the Russian garrison in the Kuril Islands to Vladivostok where they will be transported by rail as replacements for losses in Ukraine.

So, yeah, maybe not Odesa, after all.

[Corvus]

Japan has spotted 4 Russian amphibious ships heading towards Europe.

Per CNN:


Per The Guardian:


Is Odesa next?

Maybe they plan to sell them to China for some cold hard cash?

It'd take ages for them to arrive and Turkey has closed the Bosporus to military ships. Maybe Russia can try arguing that that they aren't military ships? it'd certainly be one of the least outrageous claims they have made of late.

And staging a landing at Odessa? That sounds like another example of how not to do things.

[PhaelixWW]

And staging a landing at Odessa? That sounds like another example of how not to do things.

They've had amphibious ships near Odesa for months now, predating the actual invasion. From the same article I linked in my last post:

Russian ships are shelling targets in the suburbs of Odesa as naval activity ticks up in the Black Sea, the Pentagon said on Wednesday.

“We do see increased naval activity in the northern Black Sea,” a senior defense official told reporters on Wednesday.
We also have observed on our own the shelling of some town outside of Odessa near Odessa, but not in Odessa. We believe these are… from Russian warships in the Black Sea.

The official did not say if the shelling was a precursor to an amphibious landing near the port city.

“It could be that they are preparing the way for some sort of ground assault on Odesa,” the official said.
“We would not see them surprised in taking Odesa given its strategic location.”

The shelling follows a Tuesday mobilization of Russian amphibious warships off the coast of Odesa in the Black Sea that ultimately turned back to their staging area near Crimea.

Fourteen Russian ships were seen operating in off the southern coast of Ukraine, according to open-source analysts H I Sutton and Damien Symon earlier tracked a Russian amphibious assault group and two surface combatants operating near the coast of Odesa in the Black Sea.

“Two [groups] are made up of combatants, and one has several landing ships. The landing ships appear to have sailed directly from their staging position off the Crimean coast,” they wrote in Naval News.

In total, the pair saw 14 ships, led by a Russian minesweeper, approach the coast off Odesa and then turn back toward Crimea. Pentagon officials confirmed the basic details on Wednesday.

In late February, thousands of Russian troops landed on the Sea of Azov coast without resistance as part of the ongoing Mariupol siege. They have not yet made an amphibious landing in the Black Sea.

The Kremlin has moved six amphibious landing ships into the Black Sea since the start of the year to join landing ships that were already part of the Black Sea fleet.

These include three Ropucha-class tank landing ships, which are capable of landing 10 main battle tanks and 350 troops ashore. The larger Ivan Gren-class, also in the Black Sea, can move 13 main battle tanks and 300 troops while also fielding two attack helicopters.

According to notices to mariners, the sea approaches to Odessa and surrounding beaches are heavily mined, which would complicate a landing.

Russian amphibious forces aren’t skilled at contested amphibious landings and would need an uncontested beach to deploy vehicles and naval infantry.

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Well this doesn't bode well for those protestors...

CNN: Putin calls pro-Western Russians "national traitors"

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has clamped down on any dissent since the invasion of Ukraine, on Wednesday blasted pro-Western Russians by calling them “national traitors” in a televised address.

“The West will try to rely on the so-called fifth column, on national traitors, on those who earn money here with us but live there. And I mean ‘live there’ not even in the geographical sense of the word, but according to their thoughts, their slavish consciousness,” Putin said.

These people "cannot live without oysters and gender freedom," he added.

[Celista]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CasNv5FAA-k/
Audio frankly has to be heard to be believed.

Lol he is so full of shit. His buddy holding the phone sounds rather bored of him.