Russian invasion of Ukraine

[dextersmith]

How China is helping Russia.

Chinese car makers, such as Great Wall Motor and Geely Auto, which occupy 7% of Russia's market, has stopped supplying new cars to dealers in Russia because of the exchange rate fluctuations.

So far, People's Bank of China is not letting Central Bank of Russia convert its yuan reserves into US dollars or euros.

Since Boeing and Airbus are no longer able to supply spare parts or provide maintenance support for Russian airlines, Russia has been looking for alternative sources. Earlier this month, Valery Kudinov, head of aircraft airworthiness at Russia's air transport agency, said that China has refused to send aircraft parts to Russia. Russia is now looking to source parts from Turkey and India.

Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank suspended all activities related to Russia and Belarus. Including 1.1 billion approved loan to improve Russia road and rail networks.

How is this helping Russia?

[Cynep]

Can someone with good understanding of global finance/banking give their insight? There's an idea being pushed by Ukrainians, that those ~300 billion of frozen Russian reserve funds will be used after the war ends to make Russia pay reparations to Ukraine without Russian consent. Is that plausible, or even realistically possible?

[Draco-Onis]

Can someone with good understanding of global finance/banking give their insight? There's an idea being pushed by Ukrainians, that those ~300 billion of frozen Russian reserve funds will be used after the war ends to make Russia pay reparations to Ukraine without Russian consent. Is that plausible, or even realistically possible?

The long and short of it yes it can be done but it would also be a very bad god awful idea that would set a awful precedent. Even the action of freezing Russia's overseas assets is unprecedented going further than that means opening the flood gates.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

The long and short of it yes it can be done but it would also be a very bad god awful idea that would set a awful precedent. Even the action of freezing Russia's overseas assets is unprecedented going further than that means opening the flood gates.

I assume the Russians saw the writings on the wall regarding their currency reserves, thus their moves to seize wathever international assets they had access to (local branches of international groups, airliner fleet, etc...).

[Draco-Onis]

I assume the Russians saw the writings on the wall regarding their currency reserves, thus their moves to seize wathever international assets they had access to (local branches of international groups, airliner fleet, etc...).

No they didn't Russia parked a lot of it in Europe they had no idea that they would be frozen like this that's why they are having a harder time propping the rubble.

[Poopymonster]

It would seem china has appraised Russia’s odds in this situation and found them wanting.

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Luckily, I don’t think this is playing very well.

Republicans capitalized on decades of mud slinging at Hillary Clinton in 2016. But US pop culture has been villainizing Russia for far longer than that, and does to this day. Hitman-related crime movie, who’s the bad guy? Odds are, some Russian gang. International espionage film? You can bet some Russian oligarch is doing bad things somewhere in there.

Except, of course, in this example, Russia, unlike Clinton, actually did something wrong of note. Like “invade a foreign sovereign nation.”


So I don’t think the GOP will get very far pushing this “Russia did nothing wrong/Russia isn’t so bad/lol at those stupid innocent Ukrainians getting bombed.” Biden has done a good job at setting the national tenor squarely against Russia, and the GOP isn’t coming together as a whole to push back on it.

I can't wait for the battlecry.

"̶H̶i̶t̶l̶e̶r̶ Putin did nothing wrong!"

[Easo]

Can someone with good understanding of global finance/banking give their insight? There's an idea being pushed by Ukrainians, that those ~300 billion of frozen Russian reserve funds will be used after the war ends to make Russia pay reparations to Ukraine without Russian consent. Is that plausible, or even realistically possible?

As Draco said - technically possible, but not a smart idea in the long run.

I assume the Russians saw the writings on the wall regarding their currency reserves, thus their moves to seize wathever international assets they had access to (local branches of international groups, airliner fleet, etc...).

Nah, they lost roughly 50% of those 640 billions.

[Poopymonster]

No they didn't Russia parked a lot of it in Europe they had no idea that they would be frozen like this that's why they are having a harder time propping the rubble.

I'd have loved to be there when this conversation took place.
"Don't worry Comrade, the Swiss banks will....they what? Neutral Switzerland? Home of Tall Leggy Blondes and hot chocolate? Well, cyka my blyat."

[Easo]

Izyum lost as per USA, and there is proof that Rubizhne was taken too. So Sievierodonetsk is pretty much on the eve of another large scale city battle.

I'd have loved to be there when this conversation took place.
"Don't worry Comrade, the Swiss banks will....they what? Neutral Switzerland? Home of Tall Leggy Blondes and hot chocolate? Well, cyka my blyat."

Yeah, even the "neutral" Switzerland is sanctioning Russia. It is interesting that Moscow did not see the writing on the wall when USA pretty much removed that neutrality few years ago with certain demands against Switzerland's banks.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Honestly, without knowing a shred about Ukrainian culture, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if that was legitimately happening. Humans are stupid, and we love finding reasons to display that stupidity. Just like idiots in America attacking Asian people when the coronavirus first kicked off because "it came from China!!!".

Local newspaper here had a piece about the local Russians nobodies, many of which are facing various predicaments, from their banks terminating their business relations (one trying to get an account somewhere was told he was being done a favour by not having the mortgage contract of his house terminated as well), to considerable social pressure in their work environment, regardless of them being liberal/anti-Putin/wathever.
The conclusion was that those who are the most supportive and comprehensive are the local Ukrainians...

[Draco-Onis]

Yeah, even the "neutral" Switzerland is sanctioning Russia. It is interesting that Moscow did not see the writing on the wall when USA pretty much removed that neutrality few years ago with certain demands against Switzerland's banks.

I can understand it though the Swiss still hold the accounts of some of the worst monsters on earth, people that make Putin look like a cute puppy.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

No they didn't Russia parked a lot of it in Europe they had no idea that they would be frozen like this that's why they are having a harder time propping the rubble.

I'm talking about their action post-reserve freezing.

[Draco-Onis]

I'm talking about their action post-reserve freezing.

It was too late then and not every asset is liquid enough to flip overnight, the west have virtually frozen everything.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

As Draco said - technically possible, but not a smart idea in the long run.



Nah, they lost roughly 50% of those 640 billions.

Still a lot of money, if they consider those gone for good, thar would explain why they'll quickly seize wathever western/international assets they have access to.

[PhaelixWW]

Still a lot of money, if they consider those gone for good, thar would explain why they'll quickly seize wathever western/international assets they have access to.

Sounds more like hostages.

"We'll release those western assets if you release our reserve."

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Izyum lost as per USA, and there is proof that Rubizhne was taken too. So Sievierodonetsk is pretty much on the eve of another large scale city battle.



Yeah, even the "neutral" Switzerland is sanctioning Russia. It is interesting that Moscow did not see the writing on the wall when USA pretty much removed that neutrality few years ago with certain demands against Switzerland's banks.

Yeah it was quite surprising here to see the government joining the sanctions so swiftly, and all the banks, even local ones, following suit. There are even talks about banning hydrocarbon imports ahead of the EU, but I don't know the prospects of that.

The way the banks are now walking on eggs is actually reminiscing of how they tend to deal with clients that happen to have an American passport following the Obama reforms. So many red-tape compliance that many banks would rather not have them, and the added complications of dealing with US tax services has lead many to renounce their US citizenship.

[Easo]

Still a lot of money, if they consider those gone for good, thar would explain why they'll quickly seize wathever western/international assets they have access to.

Nationalization is pretty much one of the very few choices left. Problem is - it will not be effective with all of the seized assets, because supply chains are broken and there is no direct, immediate replacements for the missing parts.
Think of electronics industry as an example - no microchips from Taiwan - the local assembly factories soon will run out of materials and then just stop.

[snebb]

Interestingly tonight, CGTN America (China state-affiliated media) is starting to report on war crimes, rather than skirt around acknowledging them.
4 headlines in 3 hours.

One person was killed and three were wounded after a downed missile hit a residential building in Kyiv

The World Health Organization head said there were 43 verified attacks on health care in Ukraine, 12 people killed, Reuters reports.

Residents and emergency workers at the site of a badly bombed residential building in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv ran for cover as Russian jets flew over and dropped bombs nearby

Russian troops have killed at least 10 civilians standing in line for bread in Chernihiv, a city in northern Ukraine, according to a Ukrainian public broadcaster and the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv.

Yes, this is the American branch, but their HQ is still based in China. I wonder if this will be echoed in mainland China tomorrow...

[Easo]

China is the big dark horse in this.
I know many will not agree, but there is not enough capacity in the West to sanction China at the same time with the same strength as Russia. There is certain diplomatic pressure, everyone knows China will skirt the rules a bit, but will do nothing unless China does it openly. Plus China wants that Western money, something Russia can't offset, not even if offering ultra cheap gas/oil.
Look, at the moment Arab states in the Gulf are saying no to Biden's attempts about increasing oil production and they are on lower weight category than PRC by far.

I doubt there is any chance of China fully condemning the invasion, but some limited successes can be made, in return for some concessions...

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

China is the big dark horse in this.
I know many will not agree, but there is not enough capacity in the West to sanction China at the same time with the same strength as Russia. There is certain diplomatic pressure, everyone knows China will skirt the rules a bit, but will do nothing unless China does it openly. Plus China wants that Western money, something Russia can't offset, not even if offering ultra cheap gas/oil.
Look, at the moment Arab states in the Gulf are saying no to Biden's attempts about increasing oil production and they are on lower weight category than PRC by far.

I doubt there is any chance of China fully condemning the invasion, but some limited successes can be made, in return for some concessions...

I saw in French press that there is some more maneuvering between China and the Saudis to trade oil directly in Yuan.