Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Easo]

I saw in French press that there is some more maneuvering between China and the Saudis to trade oil directly in Yuan.

I think we can expect more trading in yuan in general regarding everything. China wants to swing their weight around as they get stronger.
P.S.
The oil production increase was Johnson's request, not Bidens. USA's request was couple of weeks ago and also led to nowhere.

[Zaydin]

Nationalization is pretty much one of the very few choices left. Problem is - it will not be effective with all of the seized assets, because supply chains are broken and there is no direct, immediate replacements for the missing parts.
Think of electronics industry as an example - no microchips from Taiwan - the local assembly factories soon will run out of materials and then just stop.

If Russia nationalizes western companies property no Western company is going to invest in Russia for years even after sanctions are lifted.

[Easo]

If Russia nationalizes western companies property no Western company is going to invest in Russia for years even after sanctions are lifted.

I am sure they know that. And... Yes, but also no. The market of that size won't stay empty no matter what. But if there are no sudden big events then we are talking about far future after Putler, maybe decade at the very minimum. Too long of a time to predict anything with great precision.

[Draco-Onis]

I think we can expect more trading in yuan in general regarding everything. China wants to swing their weight around as they get stronger.
P.S.
The oil production increase was Johnson's request, not Bidens. USA's request was couple of weeks ago and also led to nowhere.

The Saudis want the US to help more in committing genocide in Yemen while Biden doesn't care he is afraid of the left wing of the party. There's a certain level of irony with the world going ham against Russia while funding and assisting the Saudis to starve 17 million people to death including women and children.

[s_bushido]

The Saudis want the US to help more in committing genocide in Yemen while Biden doesn't care he is afraid of the left wing of the party. There's a certain level of irony with the world going ham against Russia while funding and assisting the Saudis to starve 17 million people to death including women and children.

I mean...we're actively funding and cheerleading the shit Israel gets up to as well, so it shouldn't be that surprising.

[dextersmith]

Sounds more like hostages.

"We'll release those western assets if you release our reserve."

I don't think they'll any of the western assets even if they get their reserves back.

[PhaelixWW]

I don't think they'll any of the western assets even if they get their reserves back.

I don't think they're going to get their reserves back if they don't release any seized foreign assets.

Which is why I think using that money to pay companies/Ukraine is more likely than some other posters. I said as much before:

One wonders whether or not companies that have assets seized will be able to make some claim against the frozen Russian assets.

Something tells me Russia's not going to get those hundreds of billions of dollars back again.

I also don't think it's quite the slippery slope that others are imagining. This is hardly a common scenario.

[dextersmith]

I saw in French press that there is some more maneuvering between China and the Saudis to trade oil directly in Yuan.

How is Putin going to lash out at China now that his last bestie is jumping on the band wagon? I take it he'll turn to India as someone mentioned earlier.

[Easo]

I also don't think it's quite the slippery slope that others are imagining. This is hardly a common scenario.

I am quite sure there are a lot of goverments in the world thinking right now about how easily USA + Europe can cut them off from everything, that keeping stuff in USD and EUR carries a risk after all. This cannot be done all the time willy nilly, genie out of the bottle and all that.

[PhaelixWW]

I am quite sure there are a lot of goverments in the world thinking right now about how easily USA + Europe can cut them off from everything, that keeping stuff in USD and EUR carries a risk after all. This cannot be done all the time willy nilly, genie out of the bottle and all that.

It wouldn't be? If the US or EU tried to do that, they'd have sanctions placed on them just like others are doing to Russia. The only reason this would work now is because a distinct majority of the world's GDP power is on the same side against Russia.

That consensus is the important part of this scenario that would even allow it.

[Draco-Onis]

It wouldn't be? If the US or EU tried to do that, they'd have sanctions placed on them just like others are doing to Russia. The only reason this would work now is because a distinct majority of the world's GDP power is on the same side against Russia.

That consensus is the important part of this scenario that would even allow it.

ROFLMAO, who would place sanctions on the US that they aren't already trying to cut off ties with? What is happening to Russia has set the stage for two separate global financial systems. There's no reason to have faith in it anymore because the US and EU cannot be trusted, it only works if every country has faith and that has been broken. The actions against Russia has given China all the ammunition and support they need for their next step.

[PhaelixWW]

ROFLMAO, who would place sanctions on the US that they aren't already trying to cut off ties with?

If the US started just seizing foreign assets without adequate justification? You'd be surprised.

It's not the lack of precedent that keeps it from happening.

The actions against Russia has given China all the ammunition and support they need for their next step.

Uh... that's a take, for sure.

[Draco-Onis]

If the US started just seizing foreign assets without adequate justification? You'd be surprised.

It's not the lack of precedent that keeps it from happening.

Right, they would need to come up with fictional WMDs first my point is that there is no global arbiter or court in regards to this process at the moment.

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Uh... that's a take, for sure.

It will take decades but they have been trying to create an alternative financial system for a while now.

[PhaelixWW]

Right, they would need to come up with fictional WMDs first my point is that there is no global arbiter or court in regards to this process at the moment.

And there never has been. Yet it hasn't been done before, and not because it wasn't possible.

Like I said, it's not the lack of precedent that's kept it from happening before.

[Draco-Onis]

And there never has been. Yet it hasn't been done before, and not because it wasn't possible.

Like I said, it's not the lack of precedent that's kept it from happening before.

A lot of this hasn't been done before because people feared what precedence it would set. At the moment there are no rules or limit to this happening again to any nation that the US doesn't like.

[Kaleredar]

A lot of this hasn't been done before because people feared what precedence it would set. At the moment there are no rules or limit to this happening again to any nation that the US doesn't like.

…are you alleging that the US sanctioning Russia for invading Ukraine is somehow an example of US duplicity and subterfuge?

Because it would seem to me that not being slammed by sanctions like Russia has might just be as easy as not invading another country.

[PhaelixWW]

A lot of this hasn't been done before because people feared what precedence it would set. At the moment there are no rules or limit to this happening again to any nation that the US doesn't like.

...except the rules and limits of international diplomacy. Just as there ever was.

Classic slippery slope fallacy.

[Draco-Onis]

...except the rules and limits of international diplomacy. Just as there ever was.

Classic slippery slope fallacy.

What limits? you just said there isn't an arbiter because it's never been done. How are there rules and limitations for something that is a first?

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…are you alleging that the US sanctioning Russia for invading Ukraine is somehow an example of US duplicity and subterfuge?

Because it would seem to me that not being slammed by sanctions like Russia has might just be as easy as not invading another country.

Sanctions are to be expected I am referring to unprecedented levels of which those sanctions have been taken to. There's a reason Russia couldn't counter some of these moves it's because they had a certain level of faith that some lines wouldn't be crossed.

[Kaleredar]

What limits? you just said there isn't an arbiter because it's never been done. How are there rules and limitations for something that is a first?

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Sanctions are to be expected I am referring to unprecedented levels of which those sanctions have been taken to. There's a reason Russia couldn't counter some of these moves it's because they had a certain level of faith that some lines wouldn't be crossed.

…so because the US responded with strong sanctions, as opposed to the “expected” token limp-Dick ones, in such a way that they might actually punish Russia for their unwanted aggression… “US bad?”

This is the kind of soft power I prefer seeing the US using in such situations as these. No boots on the ground. No bombs being dropped. No drone strikes. Just walking softly while carrying a big stick.

[DarkTZeratul]

Sanctions are to be expected I am referring to unprecedented levels of which those sanctions have been taken to. There's a reason Russia couldn't counter some of these moves it's because they had a certain level of faith that some lines wouldn't be crossed.

I'm pretty sure there aren't any sanctions that have been applied to Russia that haven't previously been applied to countries like North Korea or Iran.

There are also a lot of sanctions that *haven't* been applied; for instance, it is not illegal for US companies to conduct business with Russia, a lot of companies have just voluntarily elected to stop doing so.