Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shadowferal]

Putin will still die of old age...

[Gaidax]

Sounds more like hostages.

"We'll release those western assets if you release our reserve."

Not the first for Russia. They use that all the time for their stuff.

That US basketball player - also another hostage.

We had a story about a year or so ago when our citizen got arrested for drugs possession and nearly sentenced for zillion years for what should have been light charge, but got released as soon as some certain local Orthodox church property was registered as Russian state ownership.

So yeah, they do that shit with people, sure as hell they will do it with property too.

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Putin will still die of old age...

Yeltzin died of old age. Gorbachev will also die of old age. Khrushchev died of old age.

No, Putin won't get hanged, there are reasons to why Russia gives extra care to not kill off their previous leaders that got bumped off or overthrown - they don't want to give people ideas that maybe it's the way it should be.

So yes, he will "retire" and will live out the rest of his life in Russia in safety, even if he will surely have people keeping an eye on him just in case.

[Draco-Onis]

Then why don't you elaborate? Specifically, mind, not just the vague "it's not the same because I say so" that you've been spewing out.

The middle east and Africa, the Saudis have been waging war in Yemen for 7 years leading to what the UN has called the greatest humanitarian crisis in history. It's also not Russia's first invasion of its neighbors Georgia was a thing.

[Gaidax]

Putin's demands per his phone call with Turkey.

Basically, nothing has changed.

Neutrality, demilitarisation so that Ukraine poses 'no threat', denazification (which is highly offensive but Ukraine has been doing a good job of it the last 3 weeks killing Russians), Crimea permanently Russian, recognition of Donetsk/Lugansk.

Ukraine will have to give up Crimea - that is a total no go. The best hope Ukraine can have is maybe arranging some sort of lease agreement for 99 years or such (basically kick the can down the road on this question), so they can present it as if it's still technically Ukrainian - maybe have that money serve as reparations.

Donbas is the real pickle. Best hope for Ukraine there is for that to become some sort of greater self-ruled autonomy still part of Ukraine.

Other than that - can't rule out these whole talks being bullshit to buy time to regroup. Although I think it would be outright madness on Russia's part, they need to finish this shit fast, because the costs are real.

[Kallisto]

Ukraine will have to give up Crimea - that is a total no go. The best hope Ukraine can have is maybe arranging some sort of lease agreement for 99 years or such (basically kick the can down the road on this question), so they can present it as if it's still technically Ukrainian - maybe have that money serve as reparations.

Donbas is the real pickle. Best hope for Ukraine there is for that to become some sort of greater self-ruled autonomy still part of Ukraine.

Other than that - can't rule out these whole talks being bullshit to buy time to regroup. Although I think it would be outright madness on Russia's part, they need to finish this shit fast, because the costs are real.

If the talks were a stalling measure I think Putin would have asked for something more reasonable like a "Part of Ukraine but with a lot of self rule." for Donbass etc while telling Zelinsky to denounce any forms of Nazism live on TV.

Even if it was, I don't think the inner circle of generals would accept a small peace now with another invasion 6, 12, 18, 24 months down the road because frankly there's no way, even with Ukrainian neutrality that Ukraine won't be armed to the teeth even in open secret if the war ends with Ukraine existing in some form. It would be an even bigger blood bath for Russia because Russia clearly needs to change its entire military doctrines for the 21st century and that's not something that will happen with the corruption within the Russian military and Moscow itself.

[dextersmith]

Yeltzin died of old age. Gorbachev will also die of old age. Khrushchev died of old age.

No, Putin won't get hanged, there are reasons to why Russia gives extra care to not kill off their previous leaders that got bumped off or overthrown - they don't want to give people ideas that maybe it's the way it should be.

So yes, he will "retire" and will live out the rest of his life in Russia in safety, even if he will surely have people keeping an eye on him just in case.

Safety as in a hole in the ground like Bin Laden?

[Magnagarde]

I've been following World News every day to find Biden making some badass remark. So unless it's all bluster, I'm inclined to believe he is serious. The guy has won my approval with not cowing down to Putin.

Let's not pretend that it's hard to not cow down to Putin while running a North American country. The only thing that Biden now has to do is pretend to think about the economic well-being of his allies in Europe, who - having become the most complacent democracies in the world that care more about non-existential issues than the strenght of their states - will rely even more on the US. It's a win-win for Joe and he knows it, especially if the US purchasing spree of Soviete-era equipment for Ukraine pays dividends in Russian losses. The US have lead Putin to thin ice over Ukraine and he single-handedly managed to ruin what good will and cooperation he accrued in Europe. The Americans played him like a fiddle and I don't doubt they too are surprised how much of a self-destructive and uncharacteristically irrational move this was for Putin.

[dextersmith]

If the talks were a stalling measure I think Putin would have asked for something more reasonable like a "Part of Ukraine but with a lot of self rule." for Donbass etc while telling Zelinsky to denounce any forms of Nazism live on TV.

Even if it was, I don't think the inner circle of generals would accept a small peace now with another invasion 6, 12, 18, 24 months down the road because frankly there's no way, even with Ukrainian neutrality that Ukraine won't be armed to the teeth even in open secret if the war ends with Ukraine existing in some form. It would be an even bigger blood bath for Russia because Russia clearly needs to change its entire military doctrines for the 21st century and that's not something that will happen with the corruption within the Russian military and Moscow itself.

Attacking down the road would nullify any agreement and invite nations everywhere to rally behind Ukraine for a smack down.

[Corvus]

Attacking down the road would nullify any agreement and invite nations everywhere to rally behind Ukraine for a smack down.

And no doubt they'll just wave the nuke card again to prevent interference. But its going to take a lot longer than 6 months to rebuild their forces before Russia can even think of going again. Probably looking at a few years, especially with all the sanctions. Meanwhile Ukraine is probably going to be given so much stuff that this time they'll be properly armed before any attack.

[YUPPIE]

Meanwhile Ukraine is probably going to be given so much stuff that this time they'll be properly armed before any attack.

they haven't won yet, and we don't know if there will be a Ukraine in the foreseeable future given Putin's mental state. Morbid as that is, this is still an ongoing war to the last man. Reminder that, if not nukes, Zelenksy said Putin has a scorched earth mentality and isn't afraid of using chemical WMDs.

[Corvus]

Latest update from the US DoD. Bit of an odd one as they claimed there has been no shelling observed on Ukraine over the last 24 hours. From reading the article I think the title is a little misleading as it may be referring to shelling by Russian naval units. But even so very little else seems to have changed.

The ISW report has more detail but seems to have been written before Izyum. They seem to think Mariupol is likely to fall in the coming weeks, but that Russia suffered heavy losses around Kyiv and Kharkiv and lost 10 aircraft in the previous 24 hours (5 jets, 3 helicopters, 2 UAVs).

[Collegeguy]

Putin's demands per his phone call with Turkey.

Basically, nothing has changed.

Neutrality, demilitarisation so that Ukraine poses 'no threat', denazification (which is highly offensive but Ukraine has been doing a good job of it the last 3 weeks killing Russians), Crimea permanently Russian, recognition of Donetsk/Lugansk.

Disarmament sounds terrible. It would put Ukraine under constant threat. No matter how weak Russia is, they could always walk in with no resistance.

[Kallisto]

Disarmament sounds terrible. It would put Ukraine under constant threat. No matter how weak Russia is, they could always walk in with no resistance.

The whole Disarmament thing doesn't seem to be consistent depending on who is talking from Russia. One moment it's basically just a small group of people, the other moment it's basically an actual military allowed just not aligned with NATO in any way (Like Sweden which has been brought up by Russia as a way they'll accept Ukraine. Though I believe that as far as I can throw Putin.).

If it is the latter then it's something that can be negotiated with. If it is the former it's a nonstarter.

[Rasulis]

Well, that dollar in the future might not be the only de facto currency of the world should be clear, especially after these events. Will the attempt to make it succeed? Under a question, but imho it is certain that China with "friends" will at least try.

Euro is actually a close second to USD. The most used currency used for international payment in 2021 - USD (40.51%), Euro (36.65%), Pound (5.89%), Yuan (2.7%), Yen (2.58%).

When we are talking about SWIFT transactions, Yuan only ranked 6th. Behind USD, Euro, Pound, Yen, AUD. Rather odd when you consider that the Chinese is the second largest economy in the world.

[PACOX]

I can't help but to shake my head when I see some of the more mainstream coverage of the story.

The thing now is to talk about civilian building being hit. This phase of the war was known and expected as the Russian's established operating forward operating positions. Unfortunatetly in a conflict, whether you are agree with it or not, civilian buildings often stop being viewed as civilian building and instead enemy assets. No modern force actively in conflict (so half of NATO, Israel, Russia, SA, etc) hasn't taken down a civilian building and caused civilian casualities. No excuses because you can always make the case that the armed force shouldn't be doing what its doing, buts its a reality of war and armed conflicts. Its hard to find out why some of thise sites were hit, what was dont to minimize civilian casulities, because both sides want to sell a story and only a handful try to actually be informative.

What I don't like how some reporters painted allowed the narrative that Russia wasn't actually advancing play out. If you ask a lot of people they think (or maybe until the last 48 hours happened) that the war has been nothing but a series of blunders for Russia. The entire Russian military was stuck on the highway and getting towed by farmers. Those kind of narratives are not respectful or helpful to the Ukrainians having to live out these events. We turn on the news and laugh and cheer against Russia, they turn on the news, gain a false sigh of relief and then find themselves in a hot zone.

Bad info is bad info even if the intentions are good.

[Specialka]

I can't help but to shake my head when I see some of the more mainstream coverage of the story.

The thing now is to talk about civilian building being hit. This phase of the war was known and expected as the Russian's established operating forward operating positions. Unfortunatetly in a conflict, whether you are agree with it or not, civilian buildings often stop being viewed as civilian building and instead enemy assets. No modern force actively in conflict (so half of NATO, Israel, Russia, SA, etc) hasn't taken down a civilian building and caused civilian casualities. No excuses because you can always make the case that the armed force shouldn't be doing what its doing, buts its a reality of war and armed conflicts. Its hard to find out why some of thise sites were hit, what was dont to minimize civilian casulities, because both sides want to sell a story and only a handful try to actually be informative.

What I don't like how some reporters painted allowed the narrative that Russia wasn't actually advancing play out. If you ask a lot of people they think (or maybe until the last 48 hours happened) that the war has been nothing but a series of blunders for Russia. The entire Russian military was stuck on the highway and getting towed by farmers. Those kind of narratives are not respectful or helpful to the Ukrainians having to live out these events. We turn on the news and laugh and cheer against Russia, they turn on the news, gain a false sigh of relief and then find themselves in a hot zone.

Bad info is bad info even if the intentions are good.

I guess that is the case when you get your info on social media. My medias do not say that the Russian army was towed by peasants. But they still are far behind what you would expect them to be after the last 10 years when they kept bragging how they were a "great army".

[Kaleredar]

I can't help but to shake my head when I see some of the more mainstream coverage of the story.

The thing now is to talk about civilian building being hit. This phase of the war was known and expected as the Russian's established operating forward operating positions. Unfortunatetly in a conflict, whether you are agree with it or not, civilian buildings often stop being viewed as civilian building and instead enemy assets. No modern force actively in conflict (so half of NATO, Israel, Russia, SA, etc) hasn't taken down a civilian building and caused civilian casualities. No excuses because you can always make the case that the armed force shouldn't be doing what its doing, buts its a reality of war and armed conflicts. Its hard to find out why some of thise sites were hit, what was dont to minimize civilian casulities, because both sides want to sell a story and only a handful try to actually be informative.

What I don't like how some reporters painted allowed the narrative that Russia wasn't actually advancing play out. If you ask a lot of people they think (or maybe until the last 48 hours happened) that the war has been nothing but a series of blunders for Russia. The entire Russian military was stuck on the highway and getting towed by farmers. Those kind of narratives are not respectful or helpful to the Ukrainians having to live out these events. We turn on the news and laugh and cheer against Russia, they turn on the news, gain a false sigh of relief and then find themselves in a hot zone.

Bad info is bad info even if the intentions are good.

Indeed, but on that same token keeping a narrative of "Russia is bumbling this at every turn and being awful to boot" is a good way to keep people caring about Ukraine. If you want people to eat the inconveniences of having Russia sanctioned, you gotta have them thinking it's for some reason.

If people were as doom and gloom as "Ukraine is going to fall in a matter of days, they should surrender and thank Russia for their time" or "why should we care about some randos in Ukraine?" as some sects of the media (mostly conservative,) and indeed even a few posters around here, are and have been I doubt there would be this groundswell of support for Ukraine. And that groundswell helps drive policy that helps punish Russia.

Disarmament sounds terrible. It would put Ukraine under constant threat. No matter how weak Russia is, they could always walk in with no resistance.

Agreeing to a disarmament is basically letting Russia say "alright we're gonna call a T.O so we can rebuild our forces, iron out all the logistical problems we ran into, reinvest and reconstruct our economy in ways that aren't nearly as affected by sanctions, and then make sure you have absolutely no way to defend yourself... and we totally swear we'll be cool after that!"

...until of course Russia cooks up some other bullshit reason they think gives them the right to invade and they just do this all over again, just with them far more prepared and Ukraine far less prepared.

I think Ukraine knows that, in the current iteration, Russia can't really ever win. Even if they occupy Ukraine, they'll face stiff, constant, and violent resistance not-so-subtly funded by western governments to sew chaos and discord. And Russia will continue to be the global pariah, untouchable by investors and under constant heavy sanction that causes their economy to continue its further collapse.

Basically, Ukraine is the fatally poisonous animal that gets eaten... but takes Russia, the predator, down with it.

[YUPPIE]

if putin is somehow murdered and doesn't get to invoke "taking you all with me", what kind of compromise afterward would Russia have to give to undo the sanctions?

Is his life really what all the sanctions hang on? Like if he's dead or imprisoned, do they go away if Russia decides to make the appropriate compensations and peace, whatever those are?

[PhaelixWW]

Russian missiles targeted Lviv today. They reported struck somewhere near the airport, but not the airport directly.

One wonders if they're starting to target suspected stockpiles of foreign aid shipments.

[Veggie50]

if putin is somehow murdered and doesn't get to invoke "taking you all with me", what kind of compromise afterward would Russia have to give to undo the sanctions?

Is his life really what all the sanctions hang on? Like if he's dead or imprisoned, do they go away if Russia decides to make the appropriate compensations and peace, whatever those are?

Just Putins death? No.

Russia would have to make formal apologies, social reforms and amendments to their constitution, most likely.