Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Kathranis]

I feel like at this point if Russia really wants to invade, the international community probably isn't going to stop them. It could unfold into a humanitarian crisis with non-committal "intervention" from the US and allies, like Syria, but there's no appetite for war right now.

Then again, we're not actively engaged in a war right now for the first time in about 20 years, and it would distract from all the ongoing domestic issues. And new wars are usually pretty good way to help an administration secure a second term. All it'd take to sway public opinion would be the right kind of incident.

[Fuiking]

I feel like at this point if Russia really wants to invade, the international community probably isn't going to stop them. It could unfold into a humanitarian crisis with non-committal "intervention" from the US and allies, like Syria, but there's no appetite for war right now.

Then again, we're not actively engaged in a war right now for the first time in about 20 years, and it would distract from all the ongoing domestic issues. And new wars are usually pretty good way to help an administration secure a second term. All it'd take to sway public opinion would be the right kind of incident.

Theres one thing to go to war with a country with no nuclear abilities and going to war with a aging behemoth armed with some actually nukes, who if cornered might actually decide to yolo it... and maybe very maybe, China might join the fray to either pick up the pieces or try to weaken NATO.

[Crispin]

We just asked US to put that in writing; so far US didn't manage to do so.

- - - Updated - - -

As in "could be not 'Russian army soldiers' but 'Russian PMC soldiers', we don't have enough info yet ".

Never denied "Russian" part.

You pointed out earlier, that troops in allied countries are fine.

No you were clear that it was not Russians, ubtill Putin said it was.

[arandomuser]

While hitler was making plays in europe annexing territories the west ignored it mostly because public sentiment was against confronting hitler, its kind of sad we KNEW the holocaust was happening but we couldnt do anything because the public figured "its not me who cares" imagine if britain wasnt lead by churchill who didnt listen to public sentient and declared war anyways? its crazy how many millions of people the public would have slaughtered in the name of neutrality if given the chance. people like tucker are literally fascist apologist at this point
oh we also had these people during ww2, they were called the "america first" comitee ( https://exhibitions.ushmm.org/americ...st-committee-2) this is literally what the tucker types are, they even use the same slogan

[Xyonai]

I feel like at this point if Russia really wants to invade, the international community probably isn't going to stop them. It could unfold into a humanitarian crisis with non-committal "intervention" from the US and allies, like Syria, but there's no appetite for war right now.

Then again, we're not actively engaged in a war right now for the first time in about 20 years, and it would distract from all the ongoing domestic issues. And new wars are usually pretty good way to help an administration secure a second term. All it'd take to sway public opinion would be the right kind of incident.

I just don't think there is enough of a want for an all out War right now for it to score points domestically, especially somewhere so far away.

I do otherwise agree; If Russia wants to just keep biting out pieces of Ukraine there's not much that can realistically be done to stop them short of a counter offensive into Russia itself. But, despite all of Putin's whining about nasty ol' NATO, no one actually -wants- to push a War into Russia. Because, to be frank, there's really nothing there worth taking that can't be more legitimately acquired elsewhere without the cost of dealing with Russia's military. It'd just be a kerfuffle that benefits no one and might only feasibly happen if Russia continues to set its sights ever westward and tries to march on the rest of Europe. Which would also be hilariously stupid and far too costly for what Russia's able to muster.

[Easo]

That particular hedge have been already made ("no invasion unless Ukraine attacks Donbass"), there is no need to "predict" it.

"Russian invasion taking over Ukraine" is also quite suicidal and illogical, yet people somehow see it as inevitable.

At the time I said that those weren't necessarily Russian troops - there was potential for some alternative routes. Don't think i ever denied those were Russians however.

I said something else, about the spiel you will use...
Gee, I wonder how suicidal that is for Russia? Ah right, sanctioned back into middle ages. Then again, you have made clear that it won't impact YOU. The rest? Ehh, who cares about бы..., ahemm, compatriots, amirite? Gazprom cash or something!

Yeah, sure, so you just tried to argue that white is not white, but black. This is why we are calling you out. Until the tsar admitted the thing 146% clear to everyone but the most blind/stubborn people you tried to argue about some "alternative routes". It's not even funny, Shalcker, it's just sad.

[Shalcker]

You pointed out earlier, that troops in allied countries are fine.

No you were clear that it was not Russians, ubtill Putin said it was.

Always made a distinction; you always failed to notice it too.

[Magnagarde]

And shut the hell up about Yugoslavia. Russia's participiation in stopping a fucking genocide was... driving to an airfield and having a standoff with Western forces. Wow much work. Ah yes, and spreading conspiracy theories that Serbs totally did not do genocide aka Srebrenica was made up/overblown.

Not only that, but many russians visited Bosnia to participate in the war. Central Bosnia is littereted with their remains. A reverse Donbass and Luhansk scenario, so to speak.

[Crispin]

Always made a distinction; you always failed to notice it too.

Uhm no you didnt.

[Shalcker]

You’ve never failed to claim Russia was in no way involved when multiple countries confirmed they were. Stop playing.

"Multiple hostile governments saying anything" doesn't add much, especially without any supporting evidence.

Would you believe Russians saying that there are American mercenaries in Donbass preparing Ukrainians for chemical provocations?

Same thing for me.

[Crispin]

"Multiple hostile governments saying anything" doesn't add much, especially without any supporting evidence.

Would you believe Russians saying that there are American mercenaries in Donbass preparing Ukrainians for chemical provocations?

Same thing for me.

Aaand deflecting lol. God so predictable.

[Edge-]

"Multiple hostile governments saying anything" doesn't add much, especially without any supporting evidence.

Would you believe Russians saying that there are American mercenaries in Donbass preparing Ukrainians for chemical provocations?

Same thing for me.

"But what about America?"

This playbook was long in the tooth to begin with.

[Shalcker]

"But what about America?"

This playbook was long in the tooth to begin with.

Universal human universals are universal; American exceptionalism is cringe.

[Edge-]

Universal human universals are universal.

I didn't ask for an order of Word Salad, thanks.

[Crispin]

Universal human universals are universal; American exceptionalism is cringe.

“I HATE AMERICA QQ” is all you’ve got?

What happened with the NATO invasion of Iraq and Syria?

[Edge-]

American exceptionalism is cringe.

To respond to the added bit, didn't I just tell you that this playbook was long in the tooth to begin with? Like...in the post you're quoting?

That you'd think I'm a proponent of "American Exceptionalism" is toppest of keks, to boot.

[Marcellus1986]

Always made a distinction; you always failed to notice it too.

Remember when you claimed the little green men in Crimea were local forces when they were wearing top end Russian body armor, uniforms, and the latest standard weaponry?

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

[Orange Joe]

We just asked US to put that in writing; so far US didn't manage to do so.

- - - Updated - - -

As in "could be not 'Russian army soldiers' but 'Russian PMC soldiers', we don't have enough info yet ".

Never denied "Russian" part.

oh no. You strongly denied they were Russian.

[jonnysensible]

So there is no threat of Ukraine joining NATO. Yet Russia is crying about it?

The Russian hybrid warfare lost in the Donbas. Ukraine smashed the Russian backed rebels and the Russians had to use conventional military against them. I can see Russia getting worried about Ukraine buying Turkish drones (look at how quickly they ended the Azeri-Armenia conflict 59 days). I suspect there are at least 20,000 Russian regulars in the donbas.

I think there are only really a few positions on this whole thing that I have seen articulated in the press that can be summed up as (from realists at least) :

“I am willing to risk great-power conflict, even a devastating war, because oppression is inexcusable and aggression should be deterred.”
“I am willing to risk the conquest and oppression of smaller states because great- power war is worse and brings much more suffering.”

[Orange Joe]

Always made a distinction; you always failed to notice it too.

No, it's radicals that are actually dangerous destroying enemy radicals that are actually dangerous too; win-win situation.

There aren't that many of them from Russian side anyway; but every bit helps.

In case you forgot