1. #11281
    Quote Originally Posted by Zaydin View Post
    If Russia wins it will be a pyrrhic victory at best. No other country will recognize Russias claim to Ukraine and the economic sanctions will never be lifted. Russia will also be bled dry by the inevitable insurgency in Ukraine.

    Despite what you want people to believe, Russia is not stronk. Their inability to swiftly defeat an army that they outnumber on paper is proof that Putin has turned Russia into a comically corrupt failed state.
    That's funny, assuming we know Russia's goals - we don't, they were quite vague, aside from couple of points. Insurgency? What insurgency is there in Crimea? In the rebel held Donbas? If the goal is to take Donbas and fuck Ukraine up so that it needs hundreds of billions and decades to recover - which they don't have - then it might be "win" enough, at least sellable at home and ensuring they don't join anyone. Some other regions are also 50/50 likely to be reasonably secure if taken, especially Kherson, potentially Odessa and Kharkiv in the long run. People will quickly forget the need to fight if they are fed, as evidenced by the food lines at Melitopol. Plus this is not a foreign invader, at least not in the standard meaning of the word, as strange as that may sound.

    That smaller army is large by European sizes and has as much tanks as UK, France and Germany combined plus the country is biggest in Europe aside from Russia itself. Sure, it is backwards, sure Russia fucked up at the start, but too bad wars are not fought on Twitter.
    All I want is a more realistic view, instead of Twitter posts, especially while frontline keeps moving forward regardless of them. It's almost like people believe Western media and intelligence services would post absolutely negative prognosis now, information sphere is another battlefield to be won (which Russia lost).

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    But I see no reason to believe that's true. I see no reason for the people of Ukraine to throw up their hands and say "whelp, guess we're Russians subjects now." I see no reason for the rest of the world to go "well damn I guess Russia won; sanctions lifted!" and Russia's economy just sputters right back up to speed. I don't see a reason for companies or investors or all the people who have fled Russia to just say "Glad that's over! Back to business as usual, then!"
    About the bolded line - "temporarily paused operations", majority of them. Think about what that might mean. I would suggest waiting on such bold claims for now, realpolitik might rear it's head soon.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Russia is on its way to pyrrhic victory
    What if I told you that Putler's successor might be... Medvedev. And that he possibly is worse, more... harsh? Purely theoretical speculation based on couple recent events.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
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  2. #11282
    The Unstoppable Force Jessicka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yunru View Post
    You can pretty much build a railgun at home. You just need a lot of batterys and magnets to make it (and some rails for projectiles).

    I can see them getting better once computer inteligence goes up more, as they will be able to calculate a precise shot (and drop) on target from limited information they have. And some heat resistant materials.
    They've been making 'effective' railguns since the Star Wars program, it's power capacitance and heat sinking that are the major hurdle, not calculating trajectories. If I recall, the slugs melting in the barrel was a problem too, because friction and drag, and like, being the core of a massive electromagnet. Once again, physics and materials science getting in the way of cool.
    Last edited by Jessicka; 2022-03-19 at 11:50 PM.

  3. #11283
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    More Russia stronk bullshit
    No. Ukraine will win. Today or in a decade. Their actions made it clear they will win. The same way how Finland won the Winter War by not losing it.

    The Ukraine that will come out on the other end will be free of Russia and everything Russia is...corruption, authoritarianism and moral bankruptcy. Russia will be ....Russia.

    A hellhole stuck in the misery of the Middle Ages, fantasizing about the "good times" of Ivan the Terrible and Stalin when they were stronk, while they are queuing in bread lines.
    Last edited by Mihalik; 2022-03-19 at 11:50 PM.

  4. #11284
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    No. Ukraine will win. Today or in a decade. They made it clear they will win. The same way how Finland won the Winter War by not losing it.

    The Ukraine that will come out on the other end will be free of Russia and everything Russia is...corruption, authoritarianism and moral bankruptcy. Russia will be ....Russia.

    A hellhole stuck in the misery of the Middle Ages, fantasizing about the "good times" of Ivan the Terrible and Stalin when they were stronk, while they are queuing in bread lines.
    Real life is not a movie. I would suggest to cut the agitprop a bit, but alas, that would be a waste of words.
    Moral highground is nice to have, of course, but realistic views have to be taken as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

  5. #11285
    A new report from the Pentagon suggests continued frustration with Ukrainian resistance could turn Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy towards nuclear threats against the West.

    “Protracted occupation of parts of Ukrainian territory threatens to sap Russian military manpower and reduce their modernized weapons arsenal, while consequent economic sanctions will probably throw Russia into prolonged economic depression and diplomatic isolation,” read the 67-page report from Lieutenant General Scott Berrier and the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency.

    A new report from the Pentagon suggests continued frustration with Ukrainian resistance could turn Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy towards nuclear threats against the West.

    “Protracted occupation of parts of Ukrainian territory threatens to sap Russian military manpower and reduce their modernized weapons arsenal, while consequent economic sanctions will probably throw Russia into prolonged economic depression and diplomatic isolation,” read the 67-page report from Lieutenant General Scott Berrier and the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency.


    Testifying before the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday, Berrier said the combined one-two punch of a stalwart if outmanned Ukrainian military and worldwide imposition of economic sanctions on Russia will mean the country begins to run short on some of the necessary tools of modern warfare like “precision-guided munitions,” which could hinder Russia’s invasion.

    Already, over 1,000 long-range missiles have been fired into Ukraine as Russian’s military march through the country has continuously hit roadblocks and setbacks.

    “As this war and its consequences slowly weaken Russian conventional strength,” Berrier said, “Russia likely will increasingly rely on its nuclear deterrent to signal the West and project strength to its internal and external audiences.”

    As it is, Putin has already imposed a higher state of alert on his country’s nuclear array, and Berrier said that state of alert could be pivoted into an outright threat.

    “U.S. efforts to undermine Russia’s goals in Ukraine, combined with its perception that the United States is a nation in decline, could prompt Russia to engage in more aggressive actions not only in Ukraine itself, but also more broadly in its perceived confrontation with the West,” Berrier said.

    As for Ukraine’s continued resistance, Berrier said Putin is dead set on reabsorbing Ukraine into Russia on terms that do not benefit Ukrainians “to restore a sphere of influence over Ukraine and the other states of the former Soviet Union.”
    "Truth...justice, honor, freedom! Vain indulgences, every one(...) I know what I want, and I take it. I take advantage of whatever I can, and discard that which I cannot. There is no room for sentiment or guilt."

  6. #11286
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    What if I told you that Putler's successor might be... Medvedev. And that he possibly is worse, more... harsh? Purely theoretical speculation based on couple recent events.
    Medvedev is "dead".

    He got "promoted" off, but he won't be anything because aside from loyalty to Putin he has nothing - West does not see him seriously as anything but a puppet.

    They will probably find someone who is either unknown or positive for West, to turn down the flames a notch. I don't think the decision makers there are interested in making Russia into another China or North Korea. Why I would not be shocked if Navalny could be dusted off and sold to the West as Russian Aung San Suu Kyi - a figurehead that West adores with old guard still being behind the scenes.

  7. #11287
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    Real life is not a movie. I would suggest to cut the agitprop a bit, but alas, that would be a waste of words.
    Moral highground is nice to have, of course, but realistic views have to be taken as well.
    Yes. Yes. It will steamroll Ukraine in 3 days.

    We know. #Easorealism.

    Tell us more about realism as your fantasy Russian military turned out to be just that. A fantasy.

  8. #11288
    speaking of Navalny: at this point, why hasn't Putin killed him? There's no one to be mindful about it since he's thrown all logic and reasoning out the window, even in Russia.
    "Truth...justice, honor, freedom! Vain indulgences, every one(...) I know what I want, and I take it. I take advantage of whatever I can, and discard that which I cannot. There is no room for sentiment or guilt."

  9. #11289
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    speaking of Navalny: at this point, why hasn't Putin killed him?
    What's the point of even doing that. He has no power and he's in jail for decades. He can still be useful down the road and offing him will only be troublesome noise.

  10. #11290
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post

    About the bolded line - "temporarily paused operations", majority of them. Think about what that might mean. I would suggest waiting on such bold claims for now, realpolitik might rear it's head soon.
    Even if Adidas and coke went back to selling products in Russia, that doesn't actually answer my question.

    So Russia has track pants and unhealthy soda back. And the crushing sanctions placed on them by other countries...? The inevitably insurgency efforts by the Ukrainians?

    How does that end for Russia?
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  11. #11291
    Another collateral damage from the war.

    How Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine Is Adversely Impacting India’s Economy

    I'll just cite the last paragraph.

    Due to these inescapable policy stalemates, the Indian government is struggling with little room to maneuver to ensure businesses’ profitability, earn foreign currency earnings and to prevent the domestic demand from being hit. Currently in Asia, India has become the worst hit country, where the inflation has risen to more than 13%, the forecasted economic growth rate is expected to fall from 8.2% to 7.8%, and there exists fears of a much dreaded stagflation in its economy, owing to global inflationary pressures from this war.


    The global sanction against Russia has been ridiculously effective.

    One punch.

    The bilateral trade, which stood at $11.9 billion (Russia) and $3.1 billion (Ukraine) in 2021, has been impacted severely, as exclusions of Russian banks from the Swift international payment system, have made transactions in U.S. dollars, the predominant currency for trade with Russia no longer viable. India’s pharmaceutical industry, which accounted for 32% of $510 million total exports to Ukraine, has been jolted badly, owing to closure of trading route to Ukraine.


    Two punch.

    Adding to the woes of exporters, the enforced blockade on the movement of ships through the Black Sea has stopped exports to the other countries belonging to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. And Indian exports worth over $500 million face uncertainty as a result of the withdrawal of credit guarantee cover on items bound for the region.


    - - - Updated - - -

    What is the cost of Russia censoring the internet?

    Russia's economy already lost $860 million this year because the government keeps shutting down the internet

    Yikes. I did not realize that Russian influencers generated that much money. That's a joke btw.

  12. #11292
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    Yes. Yes. It will steamroll Ukraine in 3 days.

    We know. #Easorealism.

    Tell us more about realism as your fantasy Russian military turned out to be just that. A fantasy.
    I find it funny that people are talking about 3 days yet cannot find a single official Russian source saying that. I know that I did not say it (you can go search my post history, maybe I don't remember and you will prove the opposite).
    I definitely thought that Ukraine is gonna get overwhelmed by pure firepower and the technological superiority, but not this. Then again - no one expected this (ok, except some people who thought that more infantry is required, there were some analysts saying it).

    So tell me - why do we not intervene? Do not make the no-fly zone? Do not even supply old MiG's? I mean, the nukes gotta be old, rusty and stolen, according to forum posters, probably including you as well judging by your posts.
    Or maybe you think that NATO leadership is full of weakass idiots? So, why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Medvedev is "dead".

    He got "promoted" off, but he won't be anything because aside from loyalty to Putin he has nothing - West does not see him seriously as anything but a puppet.

    They will probably find someone who is either unknown or positive for West, to turn down the flames a notch. I don't think the decision makers there are interested in making Russia into another China or North Korea. Why I would not be shocked if Navalny could be dusted off and sold to the West as Russian Aung San Suu Kyi - a figurehead that West adores with old guard still being behind the scenes.
    If Russia decides to go into full shit-on-the-West survivalist mode, then maybe it does not matter. Reason I am saying this is because he seems to be suddenly "activated", for the lack of better word. A lot of str0nk speeches, public posts, etc., since just before the war started.
    Plus the rumours, as useless as they might be, that while Putler is more calculating and pragmatical (heh that failed), this one has the harsh hand, even having been given nickame of Губитель xD
    In short - there is someone to leave in charge, in case Pu has to backpedal and admit failure/take blame.

    Navalny would be mega funny, though. I don't think that can work, Kremlin would need to make an appearance of regime failure and change, which has a real risk of going wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    Even if Adidas and coke went back to selling products in Russia, that doesn't actually answer my question.

    So Russia has track pants and unhealthy soda back. And the crushing sanctions placed on them by other countries...? The inevitably insurgency efforts by the Ukrainians?

    How does that end for Russia?
    But it does answer your question, dude. Companies going back would mean lifting sanctions. There is a very real chance that part of peace deal is partial lifting of sanctions, good old realpolitik. Ukraine is definitely not gonna take the peace deal 100% on their own, without any talks with West.
    As for insurgency - I already answered. He does not have to take Western Ukraine, like at all, just the regions with large Russian populations, or just even both full regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, that too fucks Ukraine economically very very harshly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    Another collateral damage from the war.
    Not surprising, there will be others, too. Personally - I am worried about food exports, not to Europe, but Africa and Asia.
    It will be the actual test of unity now, one that we must pass.
    Last edited by Easo; 2022-03-20 at 12:25 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

  13. #11293
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    we know Russia's goals - we don't, they were quite vague, aside from couple of points.
    ???

    Russia literally broadcasts what they want every chance they get.

  14. #11294
    Warchief Torched's Avatar
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    When your choppers are getting shot down left and right, better transport them low to the ground huh. lolol
    “A man will contend for a false faith stronger than he will a true one,” he observes. “The truth defends itself, but a falsehood must be defended by its adherents: first to prove it to themselves and secondly, that they may appear right in the estimation of their friends.”
    -The Acts of Pilate.

  15. #11295
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    I mean, the nukes gotta be old, rusty and stolen, according to forum posters, probably including you as well judging by your posts.
    Because it doesn't fucking matter whether 80% of their nukes are fucking duds or not. 1 nuke is 1 nuke too many. Considering what will be left of the Russian economy soon, we have something to loose.

    Again, at the end of this, the Russians will be literally directly trading oil and gas for food and medicine.

  16. #11296
    Quote Originally Posted by Belize View Post
    ???

    Russia literally broadcasts what they want every chance they get.
    Explain "demilitarization" and "denazification" fully. Like, what exactly do they mean?

    Or the vague words about locals choosing their own fate, which can be widely interpreted, from literally nothing to more "people's republics"?

    Quote Originally Posted by Torched View Post

    When your choppers are getting shot down left and right, better transport them low to the ground huh. lolol
    Those are the damaged heli's from the Kherson airfield. This is how armies usually move them, except when across large distances, then transport planes are often used.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    Because it doesn't fucking matter whether 80% of their nukes are fucking duds or not. 1 nuke is 1 nuke too many. Considering what will be left of the Russian economy soon, we have something to loose.

    Again, at the end of this, the Russians will be literally directly trading oil and gas for food and medicine.
    So why we even have an army then? Nukes are everything, just keep few of those!

    I also find it ironic you do not see the str0nk in your own posts.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

  17. #11297
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    If Russia decides to go into full shit-on-the-West survivalist mode, then maybe it does not matter. Reason I am saying this is because he seems to be suddenly "activated", for the lack of better word. A lot of str0nk speeches, public posts, etc., since just before the war started.
    Plus the rumours, as useless as they might be, that while Putler is more calculating and pragmatical (heh that failed), this one has the harsh hand, even having been given nickame of Губитель xD
    In short - there is someone to leave in charge, in case Pu has to backpedal and admit failure/take blame.

    Navalny would be mega funny, though. I don't think that can work, Kremlin would need to make an appearance of regime failure and change, which has a real risk of going wrong.
    OK, if Russia indeed decides to go full Red Alert neo-USSR down with rotting West, then I have no clue who they will put up for a show. Might as well Medvedev because he is a nice proven loyal puppet.

  18. #11298
    Quote Originally Posted by Belize View Post
    ???

    Russia literally broadcasts what they want every chance they get.
    Nonono. You don't understand. According to Easo the Russians are playing 9D chess. Their strategy is too stronk for our pitiful Western brains to comprehend.

  19. #11299
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    Explain "demilitarization"
    I'm gonna go ahead and let you figure that one out. It's pretty simple...

    and "denazification" fully. Like, what exactly do they mean?
    Complete replacement of the current political structure in Ukraine, under the pretext that those at the helm are "Nazis". Again, fairly self evident.

    Or the vague words about locals choosing their own fate, which can be widely interpreted, from literally nothing to more "people's republics"?
    *Points to Crimea* that kind of choosing. A lot of it at gunpoint. For the last time, self evident considering the only "correct answer" from "people choosing their own fate" is being crushed by Russia's boot and become a Russian satellite like Belarus and Georgia.


    Use your brain. None of this is particularly ambiguous.

  20. #11300
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    Nonono. You don't understand. According to Easo the Russians are playing 9D chess. Their strategy is too stronk for our pitiful Western brains to comprehend.
    OP of this thread also likes to make things up in his head. Do try to find that "according to Easo". Also, why are you not yet in Ukraine, fighting? Gotta ask you the same question I asked couple other people...

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    OK, if Russia indeed decides to go full Red Alert neo-USSR down with rotting West, then I have no clue who they will put up for a show. Might as well Medvedev because he is a nice proven loyal puppet.
    I just know that I will see the day Putler rolls off the stage, I will grab popcorn then (even with the bit of a risk that fallout might get me), in case there is no replacement.

    Quote Originally Posted by Belize View Post
    I'm gonna go ahead and let you figure that one out. It's pretty simple...



    Complete replacement of the current political structure in Ukraine, under the pretext that those at the helm are "Nazis". Again, fairly self evident.



    *Points to Crimea* that kind of choosing. A lot of it at gunpoint. For the last time, self evident considering the only "correct answer" from "people choosing their own fate" is being crushed by Russia's boot and become a Russian satellite like Belarus and Georgia.


    Use your brain. None of this is particularly ambiguous.
    1. It might be only destroying old Soviet factories keeping Ukraine's defense industry alive. It almost might mean creating something similar to the Weimar republic army - those two things are not the same.

    2. It might mean forced extraction of everyone from Azov for publicized show trials. And only that.

    3. Crimea would have joined regardless. So, maybe they don't want more republics just the implied thread of them - you don't know. Maybe they want 3 new ones to get more territory - you again don't know.

    What were you saying...?
    Last edited by Easo; 2022-03-20 at 12:40 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

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