Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Belize]

1. It might be only destroying old Soviet factories keeping Ukraine's defense industry alive. It almost might mean creating something similar to the Weimar republic army - those two things are not the same.

2. It might mean forced extraction of everyone from Azov for publicized show trials. And only that.

3. Crimea would have joined regardless. So, maybe they don't want more republics just the implied thread of them - you don't know. Maybe they want 3 new ones to get more territory - you again don't know.

What were you saying...?

1. Russia has not indicated that at all. They have repeatedly indicated a complete and total demilitarization and dissolution of the Ukrainian armed forces, and been demanding a total ban on any defensive alliances in Ukraine to keep it a "Neutral State" A.K.A. easy to invade when the sanctions lift.

2. Yet again, in their original demands they indicated a complete of both Federal (or adjacent word for a Parliamentary system) and local governments in favor of more pro-Russia appointments.

3. Clearly Ukraine as a whole is uninterested in joining considering the population is fighting back. If Russia wanted to "let them choose" they'd have backed out 3 weeks ago.


Do not confuse your refusal to see things as they are with some sort of grand geopolitical complexity. Take the blinders off.

[Gaidax]

*snip*

You are really buying into whatever Russians say for no reason.

Yes, a good chunk of their demands are vague AF by design, so they can move the goalpoasts, as they see fit and sell this as a victory.

"Denazification" can practically be anything - it could be a statement by Ukrainian Office of President condemning Nazism and/or changing the symbol of Azov battalion and/or full blown government coup. Whichever comes first. Hell there is a joke in Ukraine now that this step will be accomplished once Russian forces fuck off - might as well be that.

Same goes for "demilitarization" - which is vague AF as well and practically can mean anything as well.

That is why I keep saying that out of all demands Russia put out, the only 2 that actually matter and are actual pain in the ass for Ukraine are status of "republics" and Crimea. The rest of the crap "denazification" and other bullshit - that's no issue for both sides and easily "done", practically because it's so vague to begin with.

[YUPPIE]

I don't understand how, abroad and not state side, there can still be Russian apologists with all the graphic feed of baby killings, rape, torture, everything in the war crime bingo book. And that speech Putin made recently that was very Hitler-esque.

"Abroad" is important here: You're not being censored or fed any lies. You see what is happening for real 24/7.

Gosh.

[Belize]

You are really buying into whatever Russians say for no reason.

Yes, a good chunk of their demands are vague AF by design, so they can move the goalpoasts, as they see fit and sell this as a victory.

"Denazification" can practically be anything - it could be a statement by Ukrainian Office of President condemning Nazism and/or changing the symbol of Azov battalion and/or full blown government coup. Whichever comes first. Hell there is a joke in Ukraine now that this step will be accomplished once Russian forces fuck off - might as well be that.

Same goes for "demilitarization" - which is vague AF as well and practically can mean anything as well.

That is why I keep saying that out of all demands Russia put out, the only 2 that actually matter and are actual pain in the ass for Ukraine are status of "republics" and Crimea. The rest of the crap "denazification" and other bullshit - that's no issue for both sides and easily "done", practically because it's so vague to begin with.

I literally point out how all the demands are simply calls for Ukraine to become a Russian satellite and then you repeat what I say.

Thanks, I guess?

[Gaidax]

I literally point out how all the demands are simply calls for Ukraine to become a Russian satellite and then you repeat what I say.

Thanks, I guess?

What did I write and what you responded... I don't know maybe my English is unclear, so I'll try in small words.

Both "denazification" and "demilitarization" are a saving face demands, because it's the official mission statement for Russia they told their citizens.

Both of these can be as simple as official statement from Ukraine on one end and moving NATO instructors out on the other. There is a reason why these two demands are not considered to be a show-stopper for Ukraine and Russia, because they are just bullshit for appearances for Russia.

Ukraine will easily give these, because they cost nothing. These are just a bunch of words and moving training grounds/instruction elsewhere. It does not turn Ukraine into "satellite state".

[PhaelixWW]

Nonono. You don't understand. According to Easo the Russians are playing 9D chess. Their strategy is too stronk for our pitiful Western brains to comprehend.

Why even bother to post such low-effort bullshit? You're literally making stuff up to prove... something, I guess. God only knows.

I've never seen pretty much any of the things you've been complaining about ad nauseam.

Don't you ever get tired of it? Of people seeing that your "points" have no real substance? Next time, maybe, dig for a quote to post and respond to what's actually said, rather than posting a meaningless rebuttal to your own distorted headcanon.

If what you're suggesting is really true, then you should have no real trouble doing that... right?

[Mihalik]

If what you're suggesting is really true, then you should have no real trouble doing that... right?

Wait.

Let's track this.

2 days ago I make a post about how Russian gear seems to be garbage, like most of the Russian military. Point at them using shit gear and obviously missing crap they supposed to be having. Easo replies on how no, they are totally have all that gear. Everyone has that gear, duh.

I show him sources that no, they clearly do not have that gear. He doubles down. I provide more links and stuff, he moves goal posts on how WW2 rifles totally make sense and how "moooooost" Russian tanks clearly have the armor kits that there's photographic evidence to them obviously not having. Then he goes into some tangent on how nobody understands what "demilitarization" and "denazification" supposed to mean...when Vlad has repeatedly broke it down for us.

Again he has spent the last 3 weeks literally fetishizing the Russians and making all sorts of claims about everything from their capabilities to their supposed strategies. He also rewrote history a few times in the process.

Again, I used to think he was into some sort of Realpolitik shtick. He's not. He's just making shit up and spewing nonsense. It has become quite fucking annoying.

If the Russian strategy here is murdering civilians and wrecking their own economy in the process while having thousands of their own kids butchered, that they have been stunningly successful at. Anything else they've tried in the past weeks they have failed at.

[Kaleredar]

But it does answer your question, dude. Companies going back would mean lifting sanctions. There is a very real chance that part of peace deal is partial lifting of sanctions, good old realpolitik. Ukraine is definitely not gonna take the peace deal 100% on their own, without any talks with West.
As for insurgency - I already answered. He does not have to take Western Ukraine, like at all, just the regions with large Russian populations, or just even both full regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, that too fucks Ukraine economically very very harshly.

.

I don't think other countries are under the illusion that Putin is content "just" taking these parts of Ukraine. Russia's word is clearly dirt as to their aspirations in Europe. They see his overarching plot, and have been presented the perfect opportunity to choke it in its little warmongering cradle.

Like I said, these are countries placing sanctions. This isn't reliant upon the beneficence of some CEO worried about their monthly profits who's doing this now because he sees the opportunity for good press is temporarily suspending their services in Russia, but will renege on it "after things have cooled down."

Russia presented the countries most concerned with Russia's increased violent expansionism- the United States, and the members of the EU- with the perfect reasoning to put crushing, indefinite sanctions to cripple Russia's aggressive capabilities. Why should they end them, even if Ukraine falls? Why should they be merciful to Russia with their sanctions?

As for the fighting continuing even after a hypothetical "surrender," you're relying a lot upon the goodwill of "people who identify as Russian" rushing into the arms of their invaders who have blown up their homes, hospitals, and cities and may have indeed killed their friends and family to mean there wont be any further fighting. Besides, it doesn't take a very large group of people to lead a successful insurgency movement. The terrorist groups that bogged down the US- a country with an actual capable military, capable hardware, and capable leaders- in the middle east only ever made up a tiny sliver of the population of people that lived there.

And all of this is a moot point as it stands anyway, whether these things do or don't happen, because Ukraine is still fighting. And so long as Ukraine keeps fighting and refuses to Russia's obscene demands, Russia is slowly bleeding out, and only making the situation worse for themselves. The US, China, the EU... all the other countries of the world can pivot their reliances upon Russia, whatever they may be, away from them. And the longer it goes on, the more they pivot, and the less they care about Russia. But something tells me that Russia can't exactly do that for the entire rest of the world.

Again, how does this end for Russia? You're relying upon an awful lot of downright apathy from people- and countries- that are looking for every opportunity to smack Russia back into place.

[Rasulis]

Not surprising, there will be others, too. Personally - I am worried about food exports, not to Europe, but Africa and Asia.
It will be the actual test of unity now, one that we must pass.

Wheat shipments to Central Asia, Middle Eastern and Africa will be problematic.

There is another economic consideration for countries, such as SA, India and Turkey, that buy advanced arm technologies from Russia. Can they still expect arm deliveries?

The problem is that Russia has ZERO advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity. For that matter, they have zero semiconductor manufacturing capacity. Period.

Russia depends entirely on TSMC for their manufacturing, military and security semiconductor chip needs. TSMC halted all chip shipments on the first day of the invasion. Other options for 5-nm chips are Samsung and Japan. No luck there either.

They could settle for 22-nm chips produced by SMIC. The problem is that although the chips are made in China, parts for the manufacturing equipment are made in the USA. Which is why SMIC also halted all shipments to Russia.

Russia could retaliate by cutting off supplies of neon gas required for the lasers used in litographic chip-making equipment. That will incovenienced the semiconductor industry. For a while at least.

The problem for Russia is that there are no strategic neon mines in the Ukrainian or Russian countryside. Neon gas is extracted from the air by fractional distillation of the liquid phases. The only reason why the world sourced so much of their neon gas supply from Ukraine and Russia is economic. As long as it can be bought for a reasonable price, there is little benefit for US and EU companies to compete. The west does not even need to built the facilities from scratch. There are existing major air separation facilities (liquid oxygen, nitrogen and other inert gasses) the that can be converted/calibrated to extract Neon gas.

I think we are going to start seeing SA, India and Turkey looking more toward US for their future arms purchases.

[Kaleredar]

I think we are going to start seeing SA, India and Turkey looking more toward US for their future arms purchases.

It wouldn't surprise me if this is actually why China is stepping further and further away from Russia, only that they see themselves positioned to supply the above-mentioned countries with the items of interest, especially India.

China has likely been in a state of "We'll see what ol' Vladdy here is gonna do, best keep our options open" that's slowly shifted into a "wow, these guys are really fucking up." So perhaps they're poising themselves to swoop in and fulfill the regional hole Russia has created.

[Masark]

The problem is that Russia has ZERO advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity. For that matter, they have zero semiconductor manufacturing capacity. Period.

They do have some. The TTL chips my college used in basic electronics classes were mostly Russian made, though this was like 15 years ago.

But watching them try to fly modern planes using Apollo-era computers would be pretty comical.

[Rasulis]

It wouldn't surprise me if this is actually why China is stepping further and further away from Russia, only that they see themselves positioned to supply the above-mentioned countries with the items of interest, especially India.

China has likely been in a state of "We'll see what ol' Vladdy here is gonna do, best keep our options open" that's slowly shifted into a "wow, these guys are really fucking up." So perhaps they're poising themselves to swoop in and fulfill the regional hole Russia has created.

SA and Turkey maybe. India will never buy arms from China.

- - - Updated - - -

They do have some. The TTL chips my college used in basic electronics classes were mostly Russian made, though this was like 15 years ago.

But watching them try to fly modern planes using Apollo-era computers would be pretty comical.

If I remember correctly, TTL chips are limited to a few hundred transistors. The transistor counts of 90-nm chips, which is 2004 -2005 technology, are in the hundreds of millions. The current crops of 5-nm chips are in the hundred of billions. Definitely would be comical.

[YUPPIE]

Zelenksy is currently trying to goad Biden into visiting him where he is, which is pretty despicable.

That said, if Biden does visit (unlikely) would Putin try to kill him? He can claim "accident"

[Zaydin]

Zelenksy is currently trying to goad Biden into visiting him where he is, which is pretty despicable.

That said, if Biden does visit (unlikely) would Putin try to kill him? He can claim "accident"

Killing the President of the United States would be an act of war and spark a war with NATO.

[PhaelixWW]

Zelenksy is currently trying to goad Biden into visiting him where he is, which is pretty despicable.

Why is it despicable?

That said, if Biden does visit (unlikely) would Putin try to kill him? He can claim "accident"

Why would Putin try to kill Biden?

What would killing Biden achieve for Putin?

How could he claim "accident"?

[YUPPIE]

Killing the President of the United States would be an act of war and spark a war with NATO.

He can deny it since he's not even there. Saying Biden was naive for visiting a war zone, claim his soldier was "out of line," stupid shit.

- - - Updated - - -

Why is it despicable?

he implicitly phrased it like "you're a chicken if you don't" after Biden has been giving him the most support...

[PhaelixWW]

He can deny it since he's not even there. Saying Biden was naive for visiting a war zone, claim his soldier was "out of line," stupid shit.

Would the US ever stand for that kind of lame excuse?

What do you think the US would do about it?

Do you think Putin is stupid enough to think the US wouldn't respond?

he implicitly phrased it like "you're a chicken if you don't" after Biden has been giving him the most support...

Would you think Biden is a "chicken" if he didn't go after that invitation?

Do you think Biden is concerned about the opinion of people who might think that?

[beanman12345]

Wait.

Let's track this.

2 days ago I make a post about how Russian gear seems to be garbage, like most of the Russian military. Point at them using shit gear and obviously missing crap they supposed to be having. Easo replies on how no, they are totally have all that gear. Everyone has that gear, duh.

I show him sources that no, they clearly do not have that gear. He doubles down. I provide more links and stuff, he moves goal posts on how WW2 rifles totally make sense and how "moooooost" Russian tanks clearly have the armor kits that there's photographic evidence to them obviously not having. Then he goes into some tangent on how nobody understands what "demilitarization" and "denazification" supposed to mean...when Vlad has repeatedly broke it down for us.

Again he has spent the last 3 weeks literally fetishizing the Russians and making all sorts of claims about everything from their capabilities to their supposed strategies. He also rewrote history a few times in the process.

Again, I used to think he was into some sort of Realpolitik shtick. He's not. He's just making shit up and spewing nonsense. It has become quite fucking annoying.

If the Russian strategy here is murdering civilians and wrecking their own economy in the process while having thousands of their own kids butchered, that they have been stunningly successful at. Anything else they've tried in the past weeks they have failed at.

No need to explain anything, it's obvious to everyone reading along.

Zelenksy is currently trying to goad Biden into visiting him where he is, which is pretty despicable.

That said, if Biden does visit (unlikely) would Putin try to kill him? He can claim "accident"

He can't bag Zelensky, who's we know is his primary target. He sure as hell ain't killing Biden.

[YUPPIE]

Do you think Putin is stupid enough to think the US wouldn't respond?

he'll just wave the MAD card like always. Plus, he's fucking nuts right now so I don't think he's thinking much of anything these days with consequences in mind.

[Fugus]

Would the US ever stand for that kind of lame excuse?

What do you think the US would do about it?

Do you think Putin is stupid enough to think the US wouldn't respond?

I HOPE that the US would respond, but given how craven the GOP has proven they are and their voters are, I fear they would saber rattle for the public but not actually do much of anything while in private thanking him for it.

Remember we got Tucker Carlson backing Putin, we got Trump backing Putin, and we got others as well. So, we can't really say for sure if they don't end up with enough influence to stop them, especially given Moscow Mitch the Bitch at the lead of the party whom actively accepted Russian help in the election and threatened Obama if he went public about it and Russian Oligarchs even rewarded after their sanctions were dropped by investing over 250 million in his home state. Part of me fears they would try their best to prevent the US from responding as they would have seen it as Russia killing their enemies and aiding them.