Russian invasion of Ukraine

[starstationprofm]

Which one would that be?

Putin, duh. Just like Lelouch.

[Shalcker]

In case you forgot

That is still true even with current info, since that talked about Eastern Ukraine, where Russian army presence never was constant.

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So there is no threat of Ukraine joining NATO. Yet Russia is crying about it?

If there is no threat why not put that in writing as Russia asks? At least then your promises will have a paper trail.

The Russian hybrid warfare lost in the Donbas. Ukraine smashed the Russian backed rebels and the Russians had to use conventional military against them. I can see Russia getting worried about Ukraine buying Turkish drones (look at how quickly they ended the Azeri-Armenia conflict 59 days). I suspect there are at least 20,000 Russian regulars in the donbas.

Why would they need that many?

I think there are only really a few positions on this whole thing that I have seen articulated in the press that can be summed up as (from realists at least) :
“I am willing to risk great-power conflict, even a devastating war, because oppression is inexcusable and aggression should be deterred.”
“I am willing to risk the conquest and oppression of smaller states because great- power war is worse and brings much more suffering.”

It is quite obvious that "great power conflict" will have huge impact at home while "oppression of minor states" is localized to them.

Have you seen much personal impact from UK meddling in Syria or Libya?

[Yadryonych]

Putin, duh. Just like Lelouch.

Not sure if it was originally supposed to be some sort of insult, but you've just discovered a whole new layer of awesomeness in Putin

[Shalcker]

To respond to the added bit, didn't I just tell you that this playbook was long in the tooth to begin with? Like...in the post you're quoting?

Can you tell me what is the point of responding to "Here is how humans work - do you feel the same when interacting with 'other side'?" with "That's usual Russian playbook!" if not to imply that you aren't operating like that?

It wasn't whataboutism; it was generalization.

That you'd think I'm a proponent of "American Exceptionalism" is toppest of keks, to boot.

So, would you agree that you also trust your own and allied government claims more then Russian one? Just like Russians do in reverse?

[PC2]

Can you tell me what is the point of responding to "Here is how humans work - do you feel the same when interacting with 'other side'?" with "That's usual Russian playbook!" if not to imply that you aren't operating like that?

It wasn't whataboutism; it was generalization.

So, would you agree that you also trust your own and allied government claims more then Russian one? Just like Russians do in reverse?

What does all of that mean??

So do you guys promise that Ukraine is going to be the last country where you put your boot on their head? Or do you think there will be another one after this in the next few decades? Cause we're all just staring at you wondering what comes next.

[Mihalik]

What does all of that mean??

So do you guys promise that Ukraine is going to be the last country where you put your boot on their head? Or do you think there will be another one after this in the next few decades? Cause we're all just staring at you wondering what comes next.

Georgia. Georgia has been on the Russian's shitlist far longer than Ukraine. Ukraine happens to be more important at the moment, which is why they don't dick around with Georgia right now. But it's the next one on the list.

Then maybe the Baltics.

[Shalcker]

What does all of that mean??

So do you guys promise that Ukraine is going to be the last country where you put your boot on their head? Or do you think there will be another one after this in the next few decades? Cause we're all just staring at you wondering what comes next.

I'm not seeing how do you see that question in a quote, but Ukraine has little to do with ultimate reasons - other then being "battleground" between different influences where Russia has strongest leverage.

Noone wants Ukraine as a territory to be ruled and provided for - neither Russia nor US nor EU. Everyone wants them as "self-sustaining" part of their trade block, part of their cultural sphere, part of their military alliance perhaps, for their warm bodies in either foreign military adventures or filling lowest rungs of job ladder abroad (being same thing for Poles as Poles are to Germans).

And as American influence is slowly waning - as everyone understands their tricks, ticks, and phobias, and plays them like a fiddle - eventually natural historical order will reassert itself. Like China with Taiwan, we only need to wait.

And military option is only needed to keep America away from potential of suicidal pushes; as counter-balance to idiocy of US politicians and their disastrous non-solutions.

[jonnysensible]

.
natural historical order

there is no such thing

Theres too many off ramps for this conflict still for it to happen imo.

[Shalcker]

Theres too many off ramps for this conflict still for it to happen imo.

I fully expect that no military action will happen in Ukraine this year. That would be my bet.

And that is also current Russian goal.

[jonnysensible]

I fully expect that no military action will happen in Ukraine this year. That would be my bet.

And that is also current Russian goal.

seems like posturing to be taken seriously as a world power. Russia seems like it would be happy with the Minsk agreement, can't see putin wanting to deal with the domestic consequences to the economy or fighting an insurgency.

His political goals (much like Xi and Trumps) seems to be making the world a safer place for autocrats. I still think he wants to retire but doesn't trust anyone not to rob him if he gives up power. This seems like a headache too far and i really dont see what russia would gain.

[Easo]

If we are talking about natural order then we could almost go on and say that natural order of Russia is to regularly fall appart in a spectacular fashion, if we are using crap arguments. But do we want to use crap arguments...? No? Then stop using them.

The Russian hybrid warfare lost in the Donbas. Ukraine smashed the Russian backed rebels and the Russians had to use conventional military against them. I can see Russia getting worried about Ukraine buying Turkish drones (look at how quickly they ended the Azeri-Armenia conflict 59 days). I suspect there are at least 20,000 Russian regulars in the donbas.

Just a side note, but I feel the need to correct you:
1. Ukraine did not smash rebels. They certainly managed to put them in a bad spot before the northern wind happened, but Ukraine was running out of steam during the ambitious "let's drive along Russia's border to cut them off" thing. Sure, in the long term without Russia's support rebels have no chance, as Ukraine can and would outbody them. But back in 2014/start of 2015? Nah, unlikely.
2. Bayraktar/the drone cult is way too popular for what it should be. They were not the reason for Armenian defeat (Su-25's and artillery did the actual heavy lifting, Bayraktars served much more as target painters instead), they are just free kills for any jet fighter and command posts would be among the first to enjoy ballistic missile strikes leaving those drones unusable. They work well against people hiding in caves/no opposition, but that's it.

[PC2]

eventually natural historical order will reassert itself.

No it won't. The future will be uniquely new.

Georgia. Georgia has been on the Russian's shitlist far longer than Ukraine. Ukraine happens to be more important at the moment, which is why they don't dick around with Georgia right now. But it's the next one on the list.

Then maybe the Baltics.

I was thinking maybe northern Kazakhstan but it seems like Russia is kind of friendly with Kazakhstan because they've been sending them aid recently.

[XDurionX]

I fully expect that no military action will happen in Ukraine this year. That would be my bet.

And that is also current Russian goal.

There is ongoing military action in Ukraine with russian combatants for years, so you'd instantly lose that bet. Oh sorry, i was talking about "soldiers on vacation".

[Shalcker]

No it won't. The future will be uniquely new.

That presumes that history has no effect on current or future actions; this very thread proves otherwise.

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There is ongoing military action in Ukraine with russian combatants for years, so you'd instantly lose that bet. Oh sorry, i was talking about "soldiers on vacation".

At the moment DNR and LNR are staffed with Ukrainians, and mutual shelling isn't what thread title is about.

[Mihalik]

I was thinking maybe northern Kazakhstan but it seems like Russia is kind of friendly with Kazakhstan because they've been sending them aid recently.

Kazakhstan is a victim of its own geographic position. They will either be a Russian or a Chinese satellite state.

They are closer to the Russians for historical, ethnic and religious reasons (you know being majority Muslims and China's relationship with Muslims).

It would be very very hard for Kazakhstan to escape the orbits of either of those powers as it happens to be literally wedged between the two.

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At the moment DNR and LNR are staffed with Ukrainians, and mutual shelling isn't what thread title is about.

Horseshit.

[Shalcker]

Horseshit.

Why? Do you think they need Russia to operate artillery?

[XDurionX]

That presumes that history has no effect on current or future actions; this very thread proves otherwise.

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At the moment DNR and LNR are staffed with Ukrainians, and mutual shelling isn't what thread title is about.

Ah yeah i forgot about that peasants shooting down MH17 with bow and arrow. Oh wait, that never happened, those were russian operated russian arms!

https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-ru...led-in-ukraine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...led-in-ukraine

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...aine-not-much/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28968526

Everybody knows russian soldiers have been killing and dying in Ukraine for years. You are a liar.

[jonnysensible]

At the moment DNR and LNR are staffed with Ukrainians, and mutual shelling isn't what thread title is about.

50% of their strength is russian regulars or pmc. Not to mention the leaders of the DNR and LNR took Russian passports recently lol.

[Shalcker]

Ah yeah i forgot about that peasants shooting down MH17 with bow and arrow. Oh wait, that never happened, those were russian operated russian arms!

Did you see any BUKs on DNR/LNR side right now?

Everybody knows russian soldiers have been killing and dying in Ukraine for years. You are a liar.

Everybody also knows that between flare-up those forces are withdrawn and locals keep the line themselves.

[XDurionX]

Everybody also knows that between flare-up those forces are withdrawn and locals keep the line themselves.

Yeah, all those constant flare ups, doing flare things all the time.