Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Ihavewaffles]

That fairytale utopian worldview is slowly going to evaporate due to the tectonic impact of what's happening in Ukraine.

- - - Updated - - -



If China and Russia want to play ball, then ball is what should be played.

You didn't misunderstand anything because European troops are still very much active in Africa, especially in West Africa.

Dude...are u american? You don't know enormous European reluctance to get involved heavily into Africa due to colonial past...

N didn't u learn from Somalia.

Africa is too chaotic, u would do more harm than good...

Uhm this is getting too off topic...

[Combatbutler]

That fairytale utopian worldview is slowly going to evaporate due to the tectonic impact of what's happening in Ukraine.

If anything like this does happen, I personally will cheer for every foreign soldier that gets blown to bits or crippled for life in that theater, because they wouldn't deserve any other treatment, fuck invaders of any kind.

[Slant]

Africans are free to choose whatever geopolitical sphere they want, the US and especially Europe has absolutely zero rights on any metric to influence their decisions.

Are you kidding me? We have every right to do as we please. We are not obligated to sign any trade agreements or show any other kind of support. Especially not unconditional ones. We can, are allowed and we will continue to apply soft power to influence other nations. That's what diplomacy is all about. The only thing African nations can do is.. not listen to us. Which is fine, too. But everyone knows the type of deals China is making. They're not good. On one hand you have someone going "Hey, let's do this trade deal, but you gotta promise you'll respect human rights" and on the other you have "Hey, here's money. We own you now, bitch."

It's not hard to influence people that are faced with those two options.

- - - Updated - - -

I mean, sure. If they want to one day realize they lost control of their harbors to China due to inability to pay the loans.

This is one of the more comical myths on this forum. China doesn't "own harbors". They don't "own" anything in another country except companies. And companies are not nearly as hard a claim as people here think. Especially not when they are more like "service managers" of critical infrastructure like harbors. Takes politicians one vote to kill that company, remove all Chinese and boot them out.

This is called sovereignity. People really need to check their perspective on things.

[Gaidax]

If anything like this does happen, I personally will cheer for every foreign soldier that gets blown to bits or crippled for life in that theater, because they wouldn't deserve any other treatment, fuck invaders of any kind.

What soldiers?

The neo-colonisation of Africa is going full swing. You don't need any soldiers, when your local friends are all too willing to give up stuff for dimes and pennies, they will make sure to keep the "peasants" in check themselves.

[Combatbutler]

Are you kidding me? We have every right to do as we please. We are not obligated to sign any trade agreements or show any other kind of support. Especially not unconditional ones. We can, are allowed and we will continue to apply soft power to influence other nations. That's what diplomacy is all about. The only thing African nations can do is.. not listen to us. Which is fine, too. But everyone knows the type of deals China is making. They're not good. On one hand you have someone going "Hey, let's do this trade deal, but you gotta promise you'll respect human rights" and on the other you have "Hey, here's money. We own you now, bitch."

It's not hard to influence people that are faced with those two options.

The argument was pretty much fucking invasion, enforcing a decision. Not a trade embargo, or cut political ties ( Ich weiss, lesen ist nicht ganz deine Stärke.)

[Slant]

i think if putin is repeatedly pushed back more and more to the brink, he will nuke Ukraine and then set his forced terms for the West: resume "business co-existence" or die. Scary thought. And from what we've seen of his brainwashing and cult of personality, he could convince the Russian citizens they nuked themselves.

Which is fine, too. If he launches anything, he will delete Russia. And as tragic as that is, it's better than letting a madman like him hold the entire world hostage to his whims and tyrannical antics. We will remember the sacrifice of the Russian people. Especially the few that actually tried to oppose him.

- - - Updated - - -

The argument was pretty much fucking invasion, enforcing a decision. Not a trade embargo, or cut political ties ( Ich weiss, lesen ist nicht ganz deine Stärke.)

Invasion is not "influencing". It's an invasion. And China isn't about to invade anything in Africa, that's just a silly forum discussion quite disconnected from the realm of probable realities.

[Magnagarde]

Cute, but not how reality works.

Africans are not free to choose shit, because the continent is lorded by corruption and elites carving up their little fiefdoms, if not outright warlords turned politicians. This is how China is able to push all these cancerous loans with ridiculous terms and do whatever the fuck they want. They just grease the palms of the officials and get on with it. "Africans choosing" is not even on the books.

Here's one BBC piece I liked: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...sh-into-powder

Just one of the many many stories - I am sure it was "African people choice" there.

---

As a side note, I happened to visit Addis-Ababa on flyover to China, took a (guarded) drive through city a few years back. The amount of Chinese projects all over the place - impressed me, it's as if China practically bought out half of the place.

But that's just anecdote, so whatever.

China's unique approach to foreign capital and capitalism, incorporated into an etatistic communist system, allows it to spread far and wide through projects which have bilateral benefits for their partners, for the time being. A strong authoritarian rule, combined with planned economics is going to present the hardest challenge to "leading democracies" because it is going to promote a system that is opposed to democracy to begin with, showing that poliical pluralism doesn't equal the largest amount of economic progress. The writing is on the wall already; China will force lethargic utopists into a crude awakening. This isn't to say that the former colonial superpowers are angels and peace-bringers in their own right.

[Combatbutler]

Invasion is not "influencing". It's an invasion. And China isn't about to invade anything in Africa, that's just a silly forum discussion quite disconnected from the realm of probable realities.

I adressed this fucking lunacy

If African countries pursue Chinese influence and military presence, then it should be cut in its roots through the use of more than just talk and economy

Anyone making such a statement, deserves to be challenged on it.

[YUPPIE]

Which is fine, too. If he launches anything, he will delete Russia. And as tragic as that is, it's better than letting a madman like him hold the entire world hostage to his whims and tyrannical antics. We will remember the sacrifice of the Russian people. Especially the few that actually tried to oppose him.

so you DON'T doubt the possibility he's insane to do all that?

[Corvus]

Latest report from the ISW - the war has likely reached a stalemate that will last weeks if not months.

The tl/dr - the Ukranians have defeated the initial Russian campaign of the war. The Russians can only make limited advances in some regions, but that is insufficient to seize objectives. Due to the heavy Russian losses at Mariupol, even when it falls it is unlikely to free up enough combat power to make much of a difference elsewhere. The Russians in the south appear to be making for Kryvyi Rih but it is larger the Mariupol, heavily fortified now and the Russian force is smaller than the one used at Mariupol. The Russians are digging in around Kyiv, going on the defensive. The Russians are using naval infantry to reinforce the front, and appears to began using elements from teh Black Sea Fleet, which was meant to land at Odessa, to aid at Maiupol.

In short a stalemate with limited movement anytime soon.

As to why, well, trucks. Trucks are very important.

This article by a military logistics expert (the same one who raised the issue about poor maintenance of the tyres of Russian trucks) goes further into the truck issue Russia is having.

The tl/dr - in 6-8 weeks the Russia truck fleet is kaput. They have already lost confirmed more than 500 transport vehicles to combat action, but the big killer will be attrition. In warzones, 1 mile driven in a truck is the same as 10 to 20 normally. And the reason is that truck drivers want to live and abuse the heck out of the trucks in doing so. Combine that with poor maintenance, overloading of trucks and simply not enough of them to start with and the Russian truck fleet is going to break down really fast.

[Slant]

China's unique approach to foreign capital and capitalism, incorporated into an etatistic communist system, allows it to spread far and wide through projects which have bilateral benefits for their partners, for the time being. A strong authoritarian rule, combined with planned economics is going to present the hardest challenge to "leading democracies" because it is going to promote a system that is opposed to democracy to begin with, showing that poliical pluralism doesn't equal the largest amount of economic progress. The writing is on the wall already; China will force lethargic utopists into a crude awakening.

Yes, that is all well and good.

Until oppressed people revolt. And people like you realise... this is why oppression never worked in human history. It's not good for business in the long run. The reason why democracies are striving and are top of the class in almost every metric imaginable is because the key is to let people participate in the success, get them personally invested in their success instead of assigning whatever success they are allowed to have.

Sorry, your post is quite rubbish. We are seeing China's economy be volatile as fuck. That's not the play. Takes them just a bad mood of a banker somewhere to let them collapse. And if the West wanted to, they could trigger it any day of the week. We don't want to, though, because it would hurt us badly, too.

It's like these sanctions with Russia... takes a bit of pain for us to reevaluate the cost/benefit ratio. What you're saying now is the West being fed up with Putin's antics and deciding that the political cost of tolerating his bullshit has outweighed the economical cost of fucking him up. What you see now is the West turning up the heat to medium. This isn't the end of the line. So whatever fantasy you have about China's capabilities, don't for a second assume that their system is superior in any way.

[Magnagarde]

What soldiers?

The neo-colonisation of Africa is going full swing. You don't need any soldiers, when your local friends are all too willing to give up stuff for dimes and pennies, they will make sure to keep the "peasants" in check themselves.

Indeed, the economic subjugation of Africa is in fact rounded up in a number of countries, such as Ethiopia.

[Slant]

I adressed this fucking lunacy

Anyone making such a statement, deserves to be challenged on it.

African nations aren't exactly pursuing Chinese influence. The lack of attention from Europe and the US kinda forces them into an agreement with China. That's really on us leaving a vacuum in Africa. We could change it, but for some reason there is crisis after crisis being thrown at us from the outside, so we're quite too busy to make big things in Africa. And also, we'll have to figure out how to do it. Personally, I think it'd be best if we strengthened the African Union and went from EU to AU level talks. We'll see how it plays out, but Africa is surely going to be one of the more interesting places in the next century or so. Nothing you or I will be able to see to its conclusion.

[JohnBrown1917]

17 African countries have abstained from voting on Russia's invasion in the UN GA; Eitrea even supported it.

I think it is high time that the US and the EU reevaluate their aid programmes to these African countries too. I see absolutely no reason to continue aiding countries whose policies fail to condemn aggression of this scale.

The non-alligned movement and their position therein can't be an excuse not to cut aid.

Yeah, lets fuck over the poorest people on earth for something they probably have no control over.

- - - Updated - - -

What soldiers?

The neo-colonisation of Africa is going full swing. You don't need any soldiers, when your local friends are all too willing to give up stuff for dimes and pennies, they will make sure to keep the "peasants" in check themselves.

An Israeli critical colonialism lmao

[Magnagarde]

Yes, that is all well and good.

Until oppressed people revolt. And people like you realise... this is why oppression never worked in human history. It's not good for business in the long run. The reason why democracies are striving and are top of the class in almost every metric imaginable is because the key is to let people participate in the success, get them personally invested in their success instead of assigning whatever success they are allowed to have.

Sorry, your post is quite rubbish. We are seeing China's economy be volatile as fuck. That's not the play. Takes them just a bad mood of a banker somewhere to let them collapse. And if the West wanted to, they could trigger it any day of the week. We don't want to, though, because it would hurt us badly, too.

It's like these sanctions with Russia... takes a bit of pain for us to reevaluate the cost/benefit ratio. What you're saying now is the West being fed up with Putin's antics and deciding that the political cost of tolerating his bullshit has outweighed the economical cost of fucking him up. What you see now is the West turning up the heat to medium. This isn't the end of the line. So whatever fantasy you have about China's capabilities, don't for a second assume that their system is superior in any way.

The Chinese system isn't superior by any margin nor does it have the stability, though it is the destabilization of the Chinese system, which will inevitably have to be addressed once it poses a more direct threat, that will be the main factor for a lethargic approach towards Chinese encroachment. This, which you addressed as "it would hurt us badly too", is only going to get worse with every year that nothing is being done about it.

The pursuit of superprofit has transfered manufactoring overseas, driving growth, jobs and technology in the destination of production. China has reached a level of comfort where it knows that any destabilization of China leads to a direct tectonic destabilization of the entire world. You are too comfortable with thinking that it would be that easy to deal with China. China is in every European's home and it is the European's pursuit of profit that has lead to this.

Hunger, lack of jobs and social turmoil would reach Europe pretty quickly once faced with an insufficient purchasing power, which would be an inevitability across the board if anything were to happen to China.

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah, lets fuck over the poorest people on earth for something they probably have no control over.

The Russians didn't vote in a referendum to invade Ukraine either, yet they're being fucked just the same over an executive decision made by Putin.

[Ihavewaffles]

so you DON'T doubt the possibility he's insane to do all that?

Dude, nukes won't be used, unless some idiot spills something deadly from those ukr bio chem labs, but why is vict nuland worried about evacuating stuff from there if it doesn't exist? How?

If a spill happens, it would make covid-19 global pandemic seem like a picnic. Would result in Western n Russian consenus to contain it with nukes as last resort..

But don't worry, us denies there's any bio n chem WMDs there...n they never lie about such things..

[Gaidax]

"Hey, let's do this trade deal, but you gotta promise you'll respect human rights"

If I had a drink, I'd spill it over the monitor right now.

If you think IMF is not full of shit, you're delusional. It's not some non-profit organization, it was created by the World Bank not out of purity of their hearts. Bank is a bank and they want to have their ROI allright.

Part of the reason for many Africa's tragedies are almost insane focus on said returns from the likes of IMF, who is hardly a benevolent entity that only wants "promise to respect human rights".

It is as much of "I own you now bitch", as China. You could even argue moreso in many cases.


Here's a decent overview of all the shit IMF did in Africa over the years: https://www.tni.org/my/node/10827

And you say "promise to respect human rights". Reminds me of "Peacemaker, what a joke" quote from Suicide Squad.

[Slant]

so you DON'T doubt the possibility he's insane to do all that?

Hmm, I think Putin, like all bullies, is a coward. His sense for self preservation makes a nuclear move unlikely. But I won't deceive myself into thinking that if he talks about it, he might be insane enough to go through with it. I'm quite indifferent about it at this point. I'm in a big city, I'll get vaporized instantly. Not much I can do about it. But if he does it, Russians cease to exist.

I'm banking on the fact that his generals are even more interested in self preservation than he is. And his criminal friends. Unless he somehow manages to sneak nuke everything, I think it's far more likely he'll get a bullet in his head before launching nukes. Russians will then go "Oops, sorry about that everyone, let's just pretend this thing never happened, Putin was an idiot" and try to undo some of the damage. The West would probably keep the sanctions in place until we're convinced Russia has finally understood the concept of democratic elections and then we'll slowly ease sanctions in a tit-for-tat until everything is back to normal.

What I would be curious about is how much control the West would demand, and how we would ensure to curb Russian mafia actions... I dare say we should absolutely keep sanctions in place until Russia cleans up its crime addiction and corruption.

[JohnBrown1917]

The Russians didn't vote in a referendum to invade Ukraine either, yet they're being fucked just the same over an executive decision made by Putin.

Yeah, Putin is a real role model that should be followed when making decisions.

[Magnagarde]

I adressed this fucking lunacy

Anyone making such a statement, deserves to be challenged on it.

You can challenge me on it from a legalist and idealist worldview, which I would wholeheartedly wish upon the entirety of the world, but the reality is different.

What I brought up is already happening and is being done to prevent China's influence from spreading, but in a more conniving way.

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah, Putin is a real role model that should be followed when making decisions.

Yeah, African corrupt politicians and warmongers are a real role model that should be followed when making decisions.

The only difference between the Africans running Eritrea, who support Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, and Putin is that Putin isn't African and that they don't have the kind of power that he has.