Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Saradain]

Let's not give them ideas, though if Hessari is correct most border troops are in Ukraine currently.

You're not a russian shill, I was waiting for them to come out from the lairs with mouth frothing and claiming Finland attacked first so I could easily prove them wrong!

[Iphie]

You're not a russian shill, I was waiting for them to come out from the lairs with mouth frothing and claiming Finland attacked first so I could easily prove them wrong!

Nope, I am a dutchman living in beautiful Finland, I'm definitely not shilling for Russia.

[Veggie50]

Are you mixing up nazism with facism? Because there are facist systems without antisemitism, but antisemitism is backed into nazism - don't get fooled by the name - that's false advertising on purpose.

First things first, I am by no means saying Zelensky is a nazi, just wanna put that out there

But “nazi” does not mean “fascist who hates jews”. Nazi-ism is a subcategory of fascism, following the ideology of national socialism, which inherently needs an “out” group.

In WW2 the “out” group largely consisted of jews (and homosexuals, gypsies, mentally disabled, etc) but thats not by definition part of being a nazi.

[Breccia]

Well, MoEx is supposed to finally open in a few minutes after being shut down for 3 weeks.

You posted this four hours ago and I can't find much. They're trading bonds today, as in, the central bank is using all that foreign currency they seized to stay one step ahead of default. General stock exchange does not appear to be open.

Bloomberg has more.

The yield on Russian 10-year government debt was quoted down 44 basis points at 11.84%, as of 10:13 a.m. in Moscow. Bond trading between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. will be held in so-called discrete auction mode, then in the usual regime from 1 p.m. to 5 p.m., the central bank said in a statement on Friday. The ruble slipped for a second day, weakening 0.6% to 105.48 per dollar.



“Russia is facing a double-whammy -- a shortage of foreign currency and very high interest rates,” said Christopher Langner, head of investment strategy at First Abu Dhabi Bank in Dubai. “While the central bank may have limited ability to increase the local currency liquidity by cutting rates -- they have to incentivize people to keep their money in the bank -- it can buy bonds.”

The Eurobond coupon payment and cautious resumption of trading have shown that Russian markets can continue to function -- albeit in a much-diminished form -- after the unprecedented sanctions that froze some two-thirds of the central bank’s $643 billion of foreign reserves. Ruble trading volumes are a fraction of their pre-crisis levels and stocks, when they do resume trading, are expected to plummet.

“Our initial reading for now is that it is not the CBR’s intent to shepherd a wave of quantitative easing with large monetary injections, but rather to arrest volatility in the market,” said Ehsan Khoman, head of emerging market research at MUFG Bank. “Given last week’s coupon payment made, it does at face value signal that both the willingness and capability to pay by Russia is still intact.”

Russia has at least $488 million of interest payments coming due over the next 10 weeks, as well as a $2 billion bond it must repay next month, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Governor Elvira Nabiullina said in a video statement on March 19 that the Bank of Russia will start purchases of government bonds, known as OFZs, on Monday and sell them in full after the market stabilizes.

It really looks to me like Russia wants to avoid the whole "we have to pay this contract we signed" issue by holding the contract (the bonds) themselves, therefore, avoiding angry customers complaining and asking for their money. I'm surprised we're not seeing a rush to dump the bonds by the Russian people, who must really want those dollars right now.

This one site with a silly name claims the value of a Russian bond has fallen 1 to 32 percent, depending on the source. Considering the situation, that sounds like Russia's cheating is working.

[Azadina]

Let's not give them ideas, though if Hessari is correct most border troops are in Ukraine currently.

Perfect time to submit NATO papers, since Ruskies can't throw a response invasion outside of a suicide mission.

[Yunru]

Russan on the run:


Everything being blocked, people being rejected on banks (in other country) and yeah.....

I dont think Putin still stay longer in power with all that happening.

[Saradain]

Perfect time to submit NATO papers, since Ruskies can't throw a response invasion outside of a suicide mission.

What a time we live in...Wanting protection in form of defensive pact is considered an act of war by genocidal neighbour and we have to fear for even wanting safety :S

And then there's the school bullies getting mad that smaller countries just want to live safely so they cannot be bullied again!

[Slant]

Is that a serious reply? Russia doesn't need aircraft carriers since there's no ocean between it n rest of europe, or asia. Again, what function would an aircraft carrier have?

Only reason China even builds them is partially Taiwan but its mainly to US threats to cut off route of China's oil imports, US navy like to position itself there n bully china about china's oil imports n all its trade that has to pass through there.
It's US that is causing China to throw money on making a giant fleet...

The fuck you on about? The US is only there to protect international seaways and make a point about Taiwan. When did they ever block ships? That's not what the US navy does. I'd like a source for that outrageous claim.

[Easo]

Sun Tsu said in the Art of War to never put your enemy into a corner with no way to escape because an enemy with nowhere to go will fight to the death.

Russia is suffering at least 1,000 casualties a day per Western intelligence sources, more according to Ukrainian sources. Of the two numbers, Western sources are more likely to be accurate. How long can Russia afford that sort of attrition before Russians get pissed off and storm the Kremlin with the intention of hanging Tzar Putin?

There is no decisive victory for Russia in any scenario. If they win, it's a pyrrhic victory at best.

This is not ancient China, last stands are cool only in movies.

Thousand casualties per day for a force of 200+30 thousand would mean they would collapse very soon. The number is absolute bullshit. This is not WW2 and this is not even considering things like limited ammunition for Ukrainian artillery or having no air advantage. It's almost like West would have no reason to report anything else but a positive spin, to keep morale up and support flowing. This is not a TV show, but a war, such things goes.

the president says DO IT, his workers by OATH do it. Hence why people were afraid of Trump.

You need to go to sleep sometimes, it's required to be able to think straight.

AI? Do you think this is 2052 and not 2022?

Aircraft carriers? U complain of some old Soviet tub, lol Russia is neighbor to Ukraine, what do they need an aircraft carrier for? Sail one up the river Dnieper!? Lulz

I'm sorry, but China has nothing Russia needs, Chinese mil industrial complex isnt a Huaweii, not for a long time.

Your "analysis" of carriers is funny, considering everyone tries to build them still.

Drones. Russia does not have enough and China is one of the biggest suppliers of them. Aside from that - not much.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Thousand casualties per day for a force of 200+30 thousand would mean they would collapse very soon. The number is absolute bullshit. This is not WW2 and this is not even considering things like limited ammunition for Ukrainian artillery or having no air advantage. It's almost like West would have no reason to report anything else but a positive spin, to keep morale up and support flowing. This is not a TV show, but a war, such things goes.

Once again the man so fond of reminding us all about the "fog of war" that means none of us really know what's happening, tells us what's really happening.

One of these days you'll have to explain why you, and only you, are immune to the fog of war. Did you fall into a tub of radio-active x-ray specs when you were a child? Bitten by a bat?

[Breccia]

I dont think Putin still stay longer in power with all that happening.

I mean...he is a murdering dictator. I'm not holding my breath.

Yes, both the Russian people and the Russian oligarchs should be livid right now. Despite Putin's attempts, the Russian people do have enough outside world contact -- this includes having it before it was cut off -- to know why this is happening. The oligarchs aren't cut off from shit.

The forecasts of Russia's GDP are not great. Moody's changed their forecast from +2% pre-war to -7% due to war. I've seen harsher here and there as well. To put that in perspective, they lost 3% in 2020. So the sanctions are going to be worse for Russia than COVID was.

Russia's game-fixing bond mechanics seem to be working, in that because Russia is holding interest rates artificially high they didn't instantly crash and burn. I'm not great at this kind of discussion, but I can't find any sources that are saying "Russia's bond market just barely survived like a world first Anduin kill" or "Russia's bonds dropped to worthless" so they must have managed to stay afloat and be generally okay. Perhaps someone more experienced or qualified will explain the situation.

[Unholyground]

Is that a statement or a wish?

You'll have to wait and see but I'll tell you they won't be around for much longer.

[Corvus]

Russia's game-fixing bond mechanics seem to be working, in that because Russia is holding interest rates artificially high they didn't instantly crash and burn. I'm not great at this kind of discussion, but I can't find any sources that are saying "Russia's bond market just barely survived like a world first Anduin kill" or "Russia's bonds dropped to worthless" so they must have managed to stay afloat and be generally okay. Perhaps someone more experienced or qualified will explain the situation.

I'm no expert either, but the main draw of bond markets is that they are meant to be stable. A 13% spike is not stable. It just seems more stable compared to what would happen if stocks were traded.

[Easo]

1. Russia says to the American ambassador that diplomatic relations are almost broken between the two countries.

2. As per AFP press - Instragram and Facebook are to be banned as extremist organizations in Russia.

Once again the man so fond of reminding us all about the "fog of war" that means none of us really know what's happening, tells us what's really happening.

One of these days you'll have to explain why you, and only you, are immune to the fog of war. Did you fall into a tub of radio-active x-ray specs when you were a child? Bitten by a bat?

Because those numbers are fucking huge, at the level of Eastern Front during WW2, except we are talking about way less troops there, more mobile warfare instead of sitting in trenches (Ukrainians are, though). Add to that lack of enough munitions for Ukraine - a well known issue even before the war and especially now after the ammo dumps went up in smoke, add the airforce not controlling the skies, add systematic destruction of Ukrainian equipment with precision strikes for roughly the last couple of weeks.
With WHAT could they inflict that many casualties?

Russian invasion would collapse very quikly, that's couple batallions combat incapable each day while we know that Russia is not bringing in reserves, at least not in any noticable amount - Ukraine would be able to roll over the front units if that were the case because they would be incredibly undermanned. But it is not and front lines are where they are - so think if the 1k per day dead/wounded/sick/captured can be real.

It is almost like people do not understand that propaganda is not done just by Russia.

You'll have to wait and see but I'll tell you they won't be around for much longer.

While it would be nice I do have to ask - did you made that divination from a tea cup?

[Flarelaine]

Given the reports I have seen about Russian soldiers stealing/destroying Ukrainian civilians phones or taking their SIM cards...

Russian soldiers are under silence orders, without phones (and as I have explained like 10 times Russian MoD failed at media war, partially due to this). Of course that means some will try to "work around" the ban.
And do you seriously think Russia would be using enemy's GSM network to communicate? They are not that incapable.

When I see Petraeus on TV saying that's what they do, I kinda believe him.

[Elenos]

One of these days you'll have to explain why you, and only you, are immune to the fog of war. Did you fall into a tub of radio-active x-ray specs when you were a child? Bitten by a bat?

The Pentagon: 7.000 Russian Soldiers killed since the beginning of the war as a higher end estimate, with casualties as low as 3.000 possibly.
Ukraine: 15:000 Russians killed. Almost 1.000 each day for the last week or so.

Which do you believe? Because if it's the latter I've got some kool-aid right here.

Also Ukraine: 97 Russian jets, 121 Helicopters.

Oryx ( verifiable source of equipment losses ): 15 Russian Jets, 34 Helicopters. Ukraine scored a great hit against Russia at an airport some days ago that took out a lot of helicopters.

When I see Petraeus on TV saying that's what they do, I kinda believe him.

Patreus is respected military leader but don't confuse some instances of these reported situations with the entirety of the Russian army.

[Easo]

When I see Petraeus on TV saying that's what they do, I kinda believe him.

Retired people often write a lot of things, have to be relevant, have to sell their books, and so on...

Ukraine claimed a lot of crap, like a destroyed column of 200 vehicles - no proof. 3x shot down IL-76'es over their controlled territory - zero proof even two weeks later. 30x destroyed helis on the Kherson airfield? Maybe 15, over two separate attacks, some might be the old dead Ukrainian ones. Sunk a large patrol vessel with Grad's - the what now? Said vessel was seen sailing a week later.
Some dude was even given award for destroying Iskander launch platform, if memory serves me well - lolwhatnow?

Propaganda - bread of war. Oh, and I am not even really blaming them - they do not have a choice, they have to bullshit to keep the morale up. Everyone would do it, everyone MUST do it.
@CostinR - those are all casualties, not just killed, but regardless - 1k per day would mean Russian force would be combat incapable very soon.

[Breccia]

1. Russia says to the American ambassador that diplomatic relations are almost broken between the two countries.

Russia seems mad bro about all those consequences of their actions. My sympathy towards the Russian government can be found on my left nut, they're invited to search for it with their lips. Of course relations are broken, they broke them, what did they expect? They're making shit up about US bioweapon labs and they attacked the election, don't think we've forgotten about that. The question is why we haven't cut off ties already. They're sure acting like they want to be cut off.

Russia is very much the criminal here. The US has credible evidence they're making lists of Ukrainians to ship off to camps, and you can't get much more Nazi than that.

Cutting off diplomatic ties can suggest a lot of things, but it's not a declaration of war or breaking of any trade arrangements. It typically means one country done fucked it up so badly the other one is screening their calls. What's Russia going to tell us, anyhow? "We're still murdering civilians?" We knew that. They would not accept us at the bargaining table anyhow.

So unless the Russian ambassador was warning us in a "please, take me with you, I can't go back to Russia" kind of way, this reads like Russia trying to play the victim here. Spoiler alert, you lose the right to play the victim when you invade a sovereign country when everyone asks you not to. If they change their mind, maybe Israel or China can forward a message to US.

[Bakis]

1k per day would mean Russian force would be combat incapable very soon.

He could still put in chemical agents or further besiege bit by bit into starvation of food and essential supplies. It's not like their is much rationale left.
His stances on various demands just shows hes not even serious about a way out while saving face.

He is entirely living in his fantasy world right now.

[Breccia]

I'm no expert either, but the main draw of bond markets is that they are meant to be stable. A 13% spike is not stable. It just seems more stable compared to what would happen if stocks were traded.

Yeah, it does look like Russia is waiting as long as they can to prevent what should be a full-on selloff crash in any free situation, and instead make it a "rich Russians can save themselves first". Any foreign investors stuck with unsellable, worthless assets are going to get hammered.

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His stances on various demands just shows hes not even serious about a way out while saving face.

To me, this is the dangerous part. I mean, more than bombing civilians already is. He's had multiple weeks of failures and losses that could have been painted over with the appearance of a victory if he'd taken the offramps. He didn't. We're going to watch as he very slowly and very costly grinds Ukraine down by erosion, while the effects are dumped onto the average Russian civilian who wanted nothing to do with this.

I was hoping that the slow speed of Russia's war would give Putin more time to change course. I guess it did give him more time, but he didn't want it.