I used to think so, too, but that was before we saw a) the overestimation of Russian combat ability, b) the underestimation of the resistance and determination of the Ukrainian people, and c) the economic impact of the massive global isolation of Russia.
That presupposes that Ukraine is willing to concede those negotiations, of course. Current indications are less than definite on that point. The longer this goes on, the more that Ukraine would seem to have the upper hand in any protracted fighting.
I don't think Russian troops can "dig in" well enough to support a continued presence in areas taken over during this invasion.
R.I.P. Democracy
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
It does.
Heck, Zelensky pretty much indicated as much like today. Here's Ukrainian source (in Russian), I read natively - you can use translate.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/03/21/7333398/
There will be a "compromise", whatever that means. Russia will get its share - it may get less or much less than it bargained for, but don't think for a moment Ukraine won't go for some sort of concessions, because despite the hype - they are in very real trouble.
The info has been scratched from the article, but it's a pro-kremlin tabloid. Who know's what's going on right now.
Original: https://www.kp.ru/online/news/4672522/
Archived: https://archive.ph/f0A2Y#selection-1259.0-1259.181
По данным Минобороны РФ, в ходе спецоперации на Украине ВС РФ потеряли убитыми 9861 человека, ранения получили 16153 человека.
Google translate:
According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.
Yeah Ukraine and Zelenksy's bravado and fighting spirit have been deeply admirable, and have proven more than enough to stall Russia's advance. But it -is- an Advance, and Russia has the advantage of a target rich environment of non-combatants they can just keep shelling to force Ukraine into submission.
Negotiations were always going to hinge on how long Ukraine could hold out vs How long until this invasion cost too much for Russia to continue and still get something out of.
Ditto.
That's simply the reality. Ukraine maybe can manage to fight Russia to a stalemate for a very long time (and that is most optimistic projection there), but it is a stalemate with a chunk of Ukraine being under Russian control and them shooting rockets/artillery into what's not.
And Russians aren't going to pull back out of goodness of their hearts. Neither Ukraine can push them back militarily, because for all the achievements, they still fight a horde.
So yes, Ukraine will have to swallow some of the bad stuff in negotiations and maybe bank for clawing it back in the future, because Putin is not eternal after all and eventually sanctions/pressure may make Russia concede on whatever they get this round of negotiations.
I think you misinterpreted what "concede those negotiations" meant. "Concede" doesn't mean "compromise", and "those negotiations" doesn't mean "all negotiations".
I'm not convinced that Ukraine will be willing to concede negotiations for land taken in this invasion. I'm far less certain about Russian claims to DPR, LPR, and Crimea.
There are, of course, many more other terms to negotiate, as well.
R.I.P. Democracy
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
You can bet that Crimea, for one, is a done deal. There is nothing to look for for Ukraine there. It is de-facto Russia now.
The only thing Ukraine has a shot of winnig back is these so called republics and at most in a format of expanded autonomy. And that's a long shot too.
Realistically, he probably will get Mariupol and power plants back and northern part of Ukraine. The rest he'd have to suck up one way or another.
It's estimated the start of the fresh $800 million of the Assistance Package will be arriving in the next 24 hours.
It's probably a good thing all this assistance is being underplayed.
- Otherwise the RusSiA StROnK crowd would be complaining about Biden escalating this to WW7. Even with the end of the world at hand, they're still unfuckable.
- Otherwise the RusSiA StROnK crowd would have to concede that Assistance, Sanction, and 4 guys on twitter counting bombed T-72s is enough; to bring the Russian EMpire to a stalemate.
hell there's a chance Ukraine could even negotiate some of those territories back into itself if Russia's recent round of Economic Hardships prove too much to handle and they can't financially support efforts to repopulate and rebuild the areas they've spent the last two months bombing. It's not a great chance, but it's something.
You can see the change in tone from both sides, Zelensky clearly is "preparing the ground" for whatever the deal is and Russia has chilled in demands (outside from Putler's speeches, which still scare me).
As long as there is no major collapse of frontline somewhere Kiev has little reason to openly concede.
For @Breccia - the question as to why reserves are not used, why even volunteers are not used? My guess is that the plan was to "trouble" the nation as little as possible, thus the minimum force required was gathered. Mobilizations, calling in reservists, etc. - they are not exactly something popular with the people plus they screw with economy. So Kremlin seems to have gambled that initial shock + rapid advance would do the job (as I have said - not an impossible scenario).
Since it did not work out Putler might be trying to force the win with what he has, no reserve use unless absolutely necessary (remember, frontline is still advancing in Lugansk and Donetsk regions), maybe hoping that Ukraine will break somewhere.
I can even add the recent missiles strikes as warning to Kiev's leadership that hey, we know what you are doing, where you are hiding ammo, soldiers, vehicles, etc. Even that is a part of "diplomacy".
They dragged in units from all across the European side of Russia, pulled units from Syria and even dragged in units from the Far East.
"Mobilizing reserves" at this junction means giving up the charade of not using conscripts as frontline combat units as they would need to draft reservists. There are complex political implications to that, number one being having to admit that the casualty rates are sky high. Furthermore even if you reactive conscripts that only recently left service, they will still need some retraining, orientation etc before they can be sent into an active combat unit. Drafting fresh recruits...that takes months as you need to run them through basic. Even the most basic basic would take about 2 months before they reach the frontlines.
These sort of mobilizations are extra complicated as more often than not you'd be pulling young men away from their jobs/studies. That has economic implications.
R.I.P. Democracy
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
Fucking morons from CNN published a video from Kiev with Ukrainian ammo dumps and trophee repair shop, easily geolocatable amongst the buildings.
Well, here comes another Iskander soon...
P.S.
Not that Russia is blind, but this does not help.
Are they saying that about Russia? I do not believe there's one million plus members of Russia's armed services watching this go down from the safety of Russia, eating snacks and saying "yep, that one man on the front line us ten are backing is getting his ass kicked, someone should do something comrade" (munch munch munch).
We're going to disagree on that one. Killing people and blowing up buildings counts as "killing people and blowing up buildings" even if the goal is to have a stronger bargaining position later. If I beat you over the head and take your wallet, that's not me conducting a sales pitch to sell you your own wallet back. That's me fucking mugging you.
Fair enough, but again, I went to sites talking about Russia's current, not potential, strength. They all said much higher numbers than we're seeing in Ukraine. Some said 1 to 2 million in reserves. I don't believe "fresh recruit not done training" counts as "reserve". If that's what those sites were saying, shame on them, I won't apologize for misreading that.
You're 100% right about pulling people out of jobs in an already fracturing economy. Yeah, there's a good reason not to do that right now, isn't there?
- - - Updated - - -
Me? You're the one who claimed murder and destruction was diplomacy. I disagree and don't care your opinion on the subject. The term you're looking for is "conquering". Punching someone in the face until they hand over the car keys isn't borrowing someone's car, that's just flat-out theft. The use of military force applied until the weaker country surrenders is not diplomacy.