Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Draco-Onis]

Again, the obvious answer is often the correct one, Yes Putin wants to end this as soon as possible and Russia should have more troops so why are they not being used? Because they either don't exist, are not trained or can otherwise not be deployed.

It makes no sense for Russia to have half a million troops watching this quagmire unfold so why are they not deployed? Because they can't be deployed for whatever reason, most likely because they can't be supplied based on what we see.

Or alternatively they are going to do what they did in Syria cut off the cities and bomb them to ashes.

[Poopymonster]

Yeah Ukraine and Zelenksy's bravado and fighting spirit have been deeply admirable, and have proven more than enough to stall Russia's advance. But it -is- an Advance, and Russia has the advantage of a target rich environment of non-combatants they can just keep shelling to force Ukraine into submission.

Negotiations were always going to hinge on how long Ukraine could hold out vs How long until this invasion cost too much for Russia to continue and still get something out of.

With their supply chain, what there is of it, in tatters. How long will the troops sit there and shell the city while hunger is a constant companion, along with the cold. As they see their troops blowing up a place that has what they need. Supplies? C̶a̶d̶i̶a̶n̶s̶ Ukraine soldiers blew it up on the way in. Their CO, he was just bequeathed instant mortality by an enterprising fellow in blue and yellow. Through his brainpan. Ukraine is in a bad spot, but the Russian soldiers in the field, hunger+cold+what the fuck wear a body down, no matter how Antenoran the climate was where they were born and raised. They can only deal with it so long. It won't be tomorrow, or the next day, but it will catch up to them.

Unless those mobile crematoriums we heard about are really Deluxe Sized BBQ smokers. But that'll create an entirely different set of morale problems. But they'll be warm, and full belly morale problems at least.

Ukraine has shown they're willing to die for this. The Russian side doesn't seem that keen on going that far for the cause.

[Gaidax]

Yeah, okay, maybe we're actually on the same page, then. I took "digging in and defending, until negotiations give them some wins" to mean that you thought Russia would end up with the dug-in territories.

No. Or at least no-ish. Russia will likely "give up" Mariupol even after it takes it. Same goes for what's going on north of Kiev and Nuclear Power Plants.

The whole digging in part is to make sure Ukraine has no real chance to take it back by force and remove it off the table.

Ukraine will have to give up Crimea and there is a good chance "republics" will go too "for a meanwhile". Hard pill to swallow, but Ukraine simply can't take it back by force and Russia won't give up Crimea just because sanctions. For that to even have a chance to happen a regime change is necessary and a regime change that will decide to go "reset" with West at that.

And yes, I know Zelensky is telling the media that no way they give up territorial integrity. I read Ukrainian news, but fiery speeches are one thing and reality is the other.

[Easo]

Me? You're the one who claimed murder and destruction was diplomacy. I disagree and don't care your opinion on the subject. The term you're looking for is "conquering". Punching someone in the face until they hand over the car keys isn't borrowing someone's car, that's just flat-out theft. The use of military force applied until the weaker country surrenders is not diplomacy.

Slogans sure are good and nice, they show your moral high ground, but they do not help in negotiations at all. Realpolitik is a thing. "We will keep bombing you unless xxx" is a thing, too.

[downnola]

Realpolitik is a thing.

It's an ideology followed by insufferable sociopaths and most of it's followers that have sat in positions of power are more likely than not to be guilty of war crimes. What of it?

[Breccia]

"We will keep bombing you unless xxx" is a thing, too.

It is, it goes by names like "extortion". Or "Hiroshima". It is not diplomacy. Russia is not negotiating with Ukraine by blowing up buildings and killing people. That's just flat-out war. I'm not arguing whether it works, I'm arguing over your use of "diplomacy" to sweep bodies under the rug. Fuck that shit, call it what it is, murdering people.

[Gaidax]

Fair enough, but again, I went to sites talking about Russia's current, not potential, strength. They all said much higher numbers than we're seeing in Ukraine. Some said 1 to 2 million in reserves. I don't believe "fresh recruit not done training" counts as "reserve". If that's what those sites were saying, shame on them, I won't apologize for misreading that.

You're 100% right about pulling people out of jobs in an already fracturing economy. Yeah, there's a good reason not to do that right now, isn't there?

Reservists are reservists. For every country ever the actual fighting force is far greater than what is on the ground regularly.

What is in Ukraine is a part of the regular forces and the numbers you have are 150k. But the full army body count includes all the reservists Russia can call on to in case of shitshow and yes that's easy 2 millions.

Not a rocket science.

- - - Updated - - -

It's an ideology followed by insufferable sociopaths and most of it's followers that have sat in positions of power are more likely than not to be guilty of war crimes. What of it?

It's not "ideology", it's how the world actually works. Right, left, center, red, blue, communists, capitalists, nazis, whatever. In the end everyone is cutting deals all around based on merit and national interests.

Not on "feels" and "justice".

[downnola]

It's not "ideology", it's how the world actually works.

It wouldn't need a name then would it? My point stands.

[Mihalik]

Fair enough, but again, I went to sites talking about Russia's current, not potential, strength. They all said much higher numbers than we're seeing in Ukraine. Some said 1 to 2 million in reserves. I don't believe "fresh recruit not done training" counts as "reserve". If that's what those sites were saying, shame on them, I won't apologize for misreading that.

You're 100% right about pulling people out of jobs in an already fracturing economy. Yeah, there's a good reason not to do that right now, isn't there?

"Reserves" typically means conscripts that have already finished their year of enlistments. So they are not completely untrained (keep in mind, conscripts are conscripts, not professionals no matter what). But a whole bunch of them have been already out of the military for years. They are just not combat ready. That's why I was referencing "recently discharged" conscripts. Like last year's batch or something.

So that 1 to 2 million...basically means everyone who has done military service and is still on paper military aged. That age goes as high as 50. Now, let's be optimistic...imagine a 38 year old, who has done his stint in the military like...18ish years ago. Since then he hasn't updated on any training, protocols, procedures etc. He sure as shit has been doing any physical training. Maybe has spent those last 18 years smoking etc. (Note Russian men are notorious for rarely making it to 70, because they aren't exactly living a healthy lifestyle).

Sure, he's in the "reserves". Whether it's even worth attempting to try and draft that guy....that's a DEBATABLE.

[Easo]

It's an ideology followed by insufferable sociopaths and most of it's followers that have sat in positions of power are more likely than not to be guilty of war crimes. What of it?

It is, it goes by names like "extortion". Or "Hiroshima". It is not diplomacy. Russia is not negotiating with Ukraine by blowing up buildings and killing people. That's just flat-out war. I'm not arguing whether it works, I'm arguing over your use of "diplomacy" to sweep bodies under the rug. Fuck that shit, call it what it is, murdering people.

There was this country called Yugoslavia. You may know it better as Serbia now. It was bombed until certain people gave up. The example is from the opposite side, if you will, but the point is - bombings change things at the diplomacy table.

Tomato tomatoe, you need to start taking off those glasses, they don't help with what is happening on the ground, it does not matter how much you dislike it.

[Gaidax]

It wouldn't need a name then would it? My point stands.

But it's not "ideology" - heck it's "anti-ideology" if anything.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realpolitik

The whole idea is that "ideology" is taking second place to actual reality on the ground.

Heck, want a fresh example of said "realpolitik": https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...ancing-network

US effectively sanctions Yemen (yes the starving Yemen) to please Saudis and get some of that extra sweet oil as well as pressure Iran for agreement some more.

B-but people are starving there? Yeah. Who fucking cares, we have our needs, amirite?

---

P.S. Reminds me of that Slant guy with his "US not doing trade agreements with dictators and murderous regimes" and then immediately getting back in his shell when a list of said obvious dictators and murderous regimes US deals with was offered.

Dreamers.

[Draco-Onis]

"Reserves" typically means conscripts that have already finished their year of enlistments. So they are not completely untrained (keep in mind, conscripts are conscripts, not professionals no matter what). But a whole bunch of them have been already out of the military for years. They are just not combat ready. That's why I was referencing "recently discharged" conscripts. Like last year's batch or something.

So that 1 to 2 million...basically means everyone who has done military service and is still on paper military aged. That age goes as high as 50. Now, let's be optimistic...imagine a 38 year old, who has done his stint in the military like...18ish years ago. Since then he hasn't updated on any training, protocols, procedures etc. He sure as shit has been doing any physical training. Maybe has spent those last 18 years smoking etc. (Note Russian men are notorious for rarely making it to 70, because they aren't exactly living a healthy lifestyle).

Sure, he's in the "reserves". Whether it's even worth attempting to try and draft that guy....that's a DEBATABLE.

I don't think that's it Putin doesn't want to activate reserves because that would mean letting the truth out 1-2 million people that's what 10-20 million friends and family that would be alarmed. He also doesn't really have to when he can just bomb Ukraine into submission with less risk.

[Slant]

It's an ideology followed by insufferable sociopaths and most of it's followers that have sat in positions of power are more likely than not to be guilty of war crimes. What of it?

That's wrong. And you shouldn't try to define words you don't know the meaning of. Makes you look like a fool.

[DarkTZeratul]

bombings change things at the diplomacy table.

He's not saying that they don't, just that the bombings are not diplomacy.

[Easo]

In place of both Ukraine and Russia I would do exactly what Azeris did in 2nd Karabakh War - do not publish anything about casualties until the war ends.
It was fucking demoralizing reading Armenian losses, which were oficially published almost daily. Another 20-30-40 people dead, almost all of them 18-21 years old - and that went on for a month.,

He's not saying that they don't, just that the bombings are not diplomacy.

Thus it is literally pointless moral grandstanding. Russia IS there, Russia IS bombing Ukraine, nothing changes aside from patting your back that you are disgusted with that.

[Poopymonster]

I don't think that's it Putin doesn't want to activate reserves because that would mean letting the truth out 1-2 million people that's what 10-20 million friends and family that would be alarmed. He also doesn't really have to when he can just bomb Ukraine into submission with less risk.

It would also pull those people out of their jobs.

[Breccia]

So that 1 to 2 million...basically means everyone who has done military service and is still on paper military aged. That age goes as high as 50.

Yeah, that's making a lot more sense. Still, it's been weeks since we knew it was going poorly. There are certainly various ways this is going badly, and "doesn't have reserves" vs "has reserves but refuses to use them" both end in "troops have low morale because they don't have backup, food, or a working plan."

bombings change things at the diplomacy table.

Yes, and beating a dog until it can no longer stand means it will respond to "sit" better, but I'm still going to call it animal abuse and not training.

Here, read this paper called The Diplomacy of Violence about the US in Central American in the 1950-1990 range. Sounds like you'd be a fan. Enjoy.

[Mihalik]

I don't think that's it Putin doesn't want to activate reserves because that would mean letting the truth out 1-2 million people that's what 10-20 million friends and family that would be alarmed. He also doesn't really have to when he can just bomb Ukraine into submission with less risk.

Like, going even with the absolutely most conservative estimates of 1k killed and injured a day (and that number would go much higher if they actually tried starting to take cities), those numbers are hard to hide, doesn't matter how much you clamp down on information and how much you lie on TV.

Remember, Six degrees of Kevin Bacon? With 10 thousand dead and 30 thousand injured (soon were hitting those numbers, even if we are going with the most conservative estimates), most people in Russia already know someone personally how got killed or injured or know someone who knows someone. Soon they will be knowing 2, 3, 5 etc.

[Elegiac]

But it's not "ideology" - heck it's "anti-ideology" if anything.

Lol @ the notion of realpolitik being 'anti-ideology' because... no, it very much is an ideology based on a core set of assumptions. Which is evident in the fact Realpolitik's key weakness is the same as that of "economic realism" - namely that it assumes all parties involved are inherently rational actors.

That leads to situations where states or organizations pursue policy that is clearly contrary to their self-interest (i.e. folly) and you get a gaggle of realists twisting themselves in knots trying to explain how no, actually, the folly is in fact Just Part of the Plan™ because people in power could never be that fundamentally stupid, which further feeds the folly by helping to dismiss actually rational voices.

You know, like in this very thread.

Realpolitik has a place, but pretending it's the only lens of analysis and not just one of several lenses is a pretty bad form of intellectual masturbation.

[Gaidax]

There are various reasons why reserves are not used. Starting from simple appearances (not a war, but "operation") to popularity and to economical and simply logistical challenges.

I mean Russia's biggest issue in this invasion is logistics (aside from disastrous leadership), not manpower. Their no.1 priority is to fix the logistics, because it does not matter if you have 150k or 2m if you are stuck in the mud with broken supply lines and chaos.