Russian invasion of Ukraine

[YUPPIE]

Ukraine troops can't do shit.

The best they can do is stall as hard as they can. Pushing back is not even on the cards, let alone pushing back to Crimea - that one is outright fairytale.

They will keep taking toll on Russian forces, they might fight off some village or some such, but that's about it. Ukraine simply does not have the force and the weapons to push Russia back.

The whole "game" right now for Ukraine is not "pushing back", but mounting costs on every inch of Russian advance, which hopefully will force progress in talks.

So then what happens AFTER if Putin kills Zelenksy and celebrates his sick victory? The sanctions and economic death toll are still all there.

There's no REAL victory.

[Zaydin]

My brain does hurt quite a lot seeing CNN publish that photo. I genuinely feel my brain cells dying.

That's a Tochka missile. What fucking fantasy world are we living in? Oh right the one where Ukraine is killing a thousand Russians each day and destroying hundreds of tanks.

Russia is not stronk. The fact that they are struggling to make gains against an army they outnumber and outgun on paper is proof of that.

There is no decisive victory for Russia in the mess Tzar Putin got himself stuck in, only pyrrhic victories.

Also, the estimates were 1,000 casualties a day from Western intelligence. Casualty does not just mean KIA; it also factors in wounded and possibly MIA/PoWs.

[Draco-Onis]

Cool story, bro.

You know that poster is not alone my brain hurts each time I hear congress people and "analysts" on the news talking up a Ukrainian victory as inevitable.

[Rasulis]

Why is Japan so fiercely against Russia? It's not like even halfassed obligation, they seem to genuinely hate em.

One word "China". It is the same reason why TSMC halted all chip shipment to Russia on the first day of the invasion and Taiwan has donated in excess of $21 million to Ukraine humanitarian effort. In contrast China has only sent $700,000.

[Zaydin]

You know that poster is not alone my brain hurts each time I hear congress people and "analysts" on the news talking up a Ukrainian victory as inevitable.

In order to win, Russia has to conquer the entirety of Ukraine and hold it while also working to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people while being bled out by an inevitable insurgency being supplied by Western powers that want to see Russia bleed to death in another quagmire like what they got themselves stuck in in Afghanistan in the 70s-80s while also grappling with crippling Western economic sanctions. The Russian economy lost 15 years of economic growth in 3 weeks due to the sanctions on them.

Ukraine wins by not losing.

[Reeve]

I don't think Russia wants to take cities anymore right now it's about clamping down to lower casualties and hold the cities hostage for negotiations. If a city surrenders they will take it but urban warfare carries way too much risk.

It's funny. Maybe 10 years ago, playing Civilization, I remember thinking about how the early cities had strong walls and people manning them to keep enemies out, but once cannon came on the scene and made walls obsolete, it felt weird that cities' defensive capabilities went UP, not down. It always struck me as bizarre to think of modern cities as something that's actually defensible.

Now I have much better understanding why.

[Elegiac]

You know that poster is not alone my brain hurts each time I hear congress people and "analysts" on the news talking up a Ukrainian victory as inevitable.

Right, we should instead be listening to the people on MMO-C who were insisting that Kyiv was going to fall by the end of February and think that because they read Cyrillic script Telegram threads that they know better than actual foreign policy analysts.

Reminder that "US bad" is not a political position but a symptom of resentment poisoning.

[Gaidax]

In order to win, Russia has to conquer the entirety of Ukraine and hold it while also working to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people while being bled out by an inevitable insurgency being supplied by Western powers that want to see Russia bleed to death in another quagmire like what they got themselves stuck in in Afghanistan in the 70s-80s while also grappling with crippling Western economic sanctions. The Russian economy lost 15 years of economic growth in 3 weeks due to the sanctions on them.

Ukraine wins by not losing.

So wait, just so I am clear on this. If Russia ends up with a chunk of Ukraine annexed or turned into puppet "states" and gets various concessions out of Ukraine - that's Ukraine winning?

Damn... I sure don't want to see how "losing" looks like then.

[Draco-Onis]

In order to win, Russia has to conquer the entirety of Ukraine and hold it while also working to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people while being bled out by an inevitable insurgency being supplied by Western powers that want to see Russia bleed to death in another quagmire like what they got themselves stuck in in Afghanistan in the 70s-80s while also grappling with crippling Western economic sanctions. The Russian economy lost 15 years of economic growth in 3 weeks due to the sanctions on them.

Ukraine wins by not losing.

One big issue with your thesis is that you think Russia is looking to conquer all of Ukraine that delusion vanished the first week, their goal is no longer complete conquest of the entire country. It's clear they overestimated their reception but if Russia is backed into a corner they can level the entire country to the ground. As you've said Russia's economy has lost 15 years of economic growth, more and more Putin has nothing to lose.

Also how may millions of refugees and dead are you willing to pay for "not losing"?

[Easo]

They did, the Kremlin said no significant progress, Ukraine said: a bit progress, Russia seems to soften more. In other words: we're still talking, but it's difficult.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ne-2022-03-21/

Thank you! So as you said, same old same old.
P.S.
Damn Reuters with the paywall. At least Incognito is enough

I'm aware of that, but just because information comes from Ukrainian authorities doesn't mean it's instantly true, and media should know this. You do your basic due diligence before posting it, which includes doing some basic research to establish the authenticity/credibility of the information.

Exactly. That's Tochka in the picture, veeeeery far cry from hypersonics and pretty much sure to be their own.
Still, CNN did far worse today, with that repair shop/ammo dump video.

So wait, just so I am clear on this. If Russia ends up with a chunk of Ukraine annexed or turned into puppet "states" and gets various concessions out of Ukraine - that's Ukraine winning?

Damn... I sure don't want to see how "losing" looks like then.

Same approach as "Finland won Winter War".

[Zaydin]

So wait, just so I am clear on this. If Russia ends up with a chunk of Ukraine annexed or turned into puppet "states" and gets various concessions out of Ukraine - that's Ukraine winning?

Damn... I sure don't want to see how "losing" looks like then.

No one will recognize Tzar Putins land grab and the economic sanctions will never be lifted. If the Russian people are lucky they will only regress to a mid 20th century standard of living while Putin and his oligarch allies live in the lap of luxury.

[Elegiac]

One big issue with your thesis is that you think Russia is looking to conquer all of Ukraine that delusion vanished the first week, their goal is no longer complete conquest of the country. It's clear they overestimated their reception but if Russia is backed into a corner they can level the entire country to the ground. As you've said Russia's economy has lost 15 years of economic growth, more and more Putin has nothing to lose.

Translation: "Putain is holding Ukraine hostage therefore we should give him what he wants."

The answer is no, habibi. Acquiescing to fascists has never, ever been a productive policy.

[Yunru]

Cool story, bro.

Here is how a russan soldier sounds like right now:
https://www.101soundboards.com/sounds/178514-mommy

And yes its true, they do call their mommys

[Draco-Onis]

Right, we should instead be listening to the people on MMO-C who were insisting that Kyiv was going to fall by the end of February and think that because they read Cyrillic script Telegram threads that they know better than actual foreign policy analysts.

Reminder that "US bad" is not a political position but a symptom of resentment poisoning.

You know Russia can bomb Ukraine into next century right? in real life David doesn't beat Goliath he get pummeled into the ground. I am not saying Kyiv will fall I already stated that Russians do not want large scale urban warfare they didn't bring a force for that. The longer this goes on the more innocent people die so called "experts" do not give two shits about the cost they just want to stick it to the Russians from the comfort of their chairs.

- - - Updated - - -

Translation: "Putain is holding Ukraine hostage therefore we should give him what he wants."

The answer is no, habibi. Acquiescing to fascists has never, ever been a productive policy.

Translation: Come to a compromise and save lives, we don't care about fascist dictators a lot of our best friends with oil are.

[Elegiac]

You know Russia can bomb Ukraine into next century right?

Yes. And?

in real life David doesn't beat Goliath he get pummeled into the ground.

That's nice dear we have more than half a century of failed asymmetrical warfare attempts by countries far better prepared than Russia was.

I am not saying Kyiv will fall

Plenty of people were, and those people are still banging the "RUSSIA STR0NK, HYPERSONIC MISSILES FAST" drum as if their credibility hasn't long since vanished.

I already stated that Russians do not want large scale urban warfare they didn't bring a force for that. The longer this goes on the more innocent people die so called "experts" do not give two shits about the cost they just want to stick it to the Russians from the comfort of their chairs.

You do realise "sticking it to the Russians" is in fact a function of neutering their ability to perform similar attempts at annexation elsewhere, right? Claiming that "you're just concerned about the humanitarian costs" is a bald faced lie with a very clear agenda of trying to paint the US/NATO/the West as the actual villains in this scenario.

Again: "US bad, West bad" isn't a political position. You're just resentment poisoned.

Translation: Come to a compromise and save lives, we don't care about fascist dictators a lot of our best friends with oil are.

And thank you for proving my point with this little whataboutism that this is very much an "anti-US/NATO/West" shtick rather than actual concern about any humanitarian costs.

[Zaydin]

One big issue with your thesis is that you think Russia is looking to conquer all of Ukraine that delusion vanished the first week, their goal is no longer complete conquest of the entire country. It's clear they overestimated their reception but if Russia is backed into a corner they can level the entire country to the ground. As you've said Russia's economy has lost 15 years of economic growth, more and more Putin has nothing to lose.

Also how may millions of refugees and dead are you willing to pay for "not losing"?

If Russia 'levels' Ukraine, a NATO intervention stops becoming a matter of "IF" and becomes a matter of "When". Because if Putin keeps ordering the deliberate massacre of civilians, international outrage in the EU and NATO member states is going to grow to a point where something will have to be done and that something will likely be the systematic destruction of Russian troops in Ukraine and the destruction of the Russian oil industry via missile/airstrikes.

Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country. Without their oil and natural gas, what exactly do they have that other countries want aside from aging Soviet era military surplus?

[Barzotti]

in real life David doesn't beat Goliath he get pummeled into the ground.

In real life the USSR doesn't lose in Afghanistan and the USA doesn't lose in Vietnam and Afghanistan too?

[Draco-Onis]

You do realise "sticking it to the Russians" is in fact a function of neutering their ability to perform similar attempts at annexation elsewhere, right? Claiming that "you're just concerned about the humanitarian costs" is a bald faced lie with a very clear agenda of trying to paint the US/NATO/the West as the actual villains in this scenario.

Again: "US bad, West bad" isn't a political position. You're just resentment poisoned.

Have you not been paying attention? they don't have the ability to perform similar annexation elsewhere properly. They can still do it in places like Crimea where there is strong support for Russian presence. If Russia has destroyed Ukraine within a week you would have a point but this is contradictory, you can't be making fun of Russian STONK and at the same time be scared they are taking over make up your mind.

This week we send weapons to Saudi Arabia to use in a genocide, this is not US bad West Bad it's laughing at people who think this is some kind of moral imperative. This is purely political and capital interest that make Ukraine important, ask the people of Georgia about how much the international community "cares".


Infracted.

[Poopymonster]

In real life the USSR doesn't lose in Afghanistan and the USA doesn't lose in Vietnam and Afghanistan too?

/10fishcalledWanda

[Draco-Onis]

In real life the USSR doesn't lose in Afghanistan and the USA doesn't lose in Vietnam and Afghanistan too?

So you want Ukraine to turn into Vietnam or Afghanistan, you have a funny definition of "victory".