Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Easo]

Why on earth do you think higher bread prices in Turkey or Egypt are going to cause people in Japan, Taiwan, the EU, or the US to stop supporting sanctions. Besides a highly misanthropic view of your fellow man, I mean.

You're vastly overstating how important Russia is to the global economy, and vastly overestimating their self sufficiency. "RUSSIA STR0NK" indeed.

Uhh, when was the last time you took a look at fuel prices, for an example? Prices are increasing everywhere. You absolutely can expect goverments to pump cash into economies soon.

For those who keep repeating that “Putin has nothing to lose”, you forget he has children.

And if the nukes go flying, he can kiss them goodbye as well. Even a power hungry man like that typically has those they care for, not everyone is like Trump and Kim Jon Un from North Korea.

So, the question is which does he care about more which will answer if he really wants scorched earth.

That's just the OP of this thread, he seems to have an unhealthy obsession with that.

[Gaidax]

Why on earth do you think higher bread prices in Turkey or Egypt are going to cause people in Japan, Taiwan, the EU, or the US to stop supporting sanctions. Besides a highly misanthropic view of your fellow man, I mean.

You're vastly overstating how important Russia is to the global economy, and vastly overestimating their self sufficiency. "RUSSIA STR0NK" indeed.

Because it is a global economy.

Everything is intertwined - it's a chain reaction that you can't even fully predict. Countries having to divert resources from advancing industries to fill peoples' bellies, which in turn weighs on economy and production of useful commodities said Japan/Taiwan/EU directly or indirectly consume - increasing prices... etc etc.

[Vankrys]

They don't have enough drones with strike capability, including loitering ammo ones (low numbers, IIRC), but those are being used. They, however, absolutely are massively using recon ones, though, with target painting if needed. Last example can be seen from yesterdays strike on shopping centre, but from what I can read there is not enough for infantry needs.
This is the one single thing China could give them that would be useful, in regards to all that blah blah about China helping.

recon is nice and all, but if you want to make progress in the battlefield, you need a way to deliver payload (again sorry if i'm being insensitive) . It seems to me Russia went the way of hypersonic missile rather than UAV. This is bad math, those missiles go for $50+ million a pop.

[Elegiac]

Do yourself a favor stop replying it's embarrassing, you probably think it's just coincidence that republicans are pushing hard on Biden gas prices and inflation.

Bruh, they were pushing both angles long before this Ukraine shit started up. It being a convenient stalking horse for them does not mean support for the sanctions is going to vanish especially when the GOP establishment and the vast majority of its voter base is still firmly anti-Russia.

[NED funded]

People are being weird on gas prices xd

US gas prices arent the result of actual scarcity of gas, that is a Europe problem but about uncertainty there will be gas in the near future

I am not going to say its a problem that will solve itself but its kinda missing the point on the impact Russia has on the globe

[PhaelixWW]

I think the initial losses the Russia air force suffered and their apparent difficulty in removing Ukrainian AA (now even more difficult with a lack of precision missiles) largely grounded them.

It would seem Russia had to chose between having an air force at operation strength that they can't use or throw them into the grinder until they ran out of air force and they chose the former.

Its stupid and makes little sense based on how we are used to seeing the American air force operate and quickly establish complete air superiority whatever they deploy but it would explain why they are absent as you noted.

It's almost like Ukraine has had practice over the last 8 years in fighting against Russian-made tanks and aircraft for some reason...

It's almost like they were much more prepared for this attack than Russia expected...

...

Weird.

[Draco-Onis]

SNIP.

Best we agree to disagree lest I be reported again for hurting your fee fees.

[Elegiac]

Because it is a global economy.

Everything is intertwined - it's a chain reaction that you can't even fully predict. Countries having to divert resources from advancing industries to fill peoples' bellies, which in turn weighs on economy and production of useful commodities said Japan/Taiwan/EU directly or indirectly consume - increasing prices... etc etc.

And again: why do you think this is likely to have regime impacts in countries that still have access to the global economy to help defray their losses BEFORE it has impacts on the Russian regime?

[Draco-Onis]

People are being weird on gas prices xd

US gas prices arent the result of actual scarcity of gas, that is a Europe problem but about uncertainty there will be gas in the near future

I am not going to say its a problem that will solve itself but its kinda missing the point on the impact Russia has on the globe

Most people don't understand how gas prices work they just blame the party in power and the president, that's always been the case.

[Gaidax]

And again: why do you think this is likely to have regime impacts in countries that still have access to the global economy to help defray their losses BEFORE the impacts on the Russian regime?

Because the reality is that on Earth there is X amount of grain, Y amount of gas and Z amount of silicone produced yearly (Russia is second producer after China btw).

And if you think these things can just magically be shifted around at the moment's notice, then no - because the same shit will happen like in 2020 happened with C19, everyone and their mothers went for "Every Man For Himself" mode hunting for masks, medical supplies and ER machines. Except now it will be every man for himself for that grain shipment or other half dozen basic things that suddenly shoot up in price.

Things like this impact world economy a lot, it's a snowball nobody can quite predict given the scope.

[Easo]

And again: why do you think this is likely to have regime impacts in countries that still have access to the global economy to help defray their losses BEFORE it has impacts on the Russian regime?

It might be enough with just doubling the price for fuel or bread.

recon is nice and all, but if you want to make progress in the battlefield, you need a way to deliver payload (again sorry if i'm being insensitive) . It seems to me Russia went the way of hypersonic missile rather than UAV. This is bad math, those missiles go for $50+ million a pop.

Have to know where to hit first, though, have to know where the enemy is. Recon is incredibly important. Also, almost all missiles used are cruise and ballistic ones, used for high level targets. Only two hypersonics have been launched, IIRC.
Imho yesterday was a show of force - we know you are hiding in that shopping centre.

[NED funded]

Because it is a global economy.

Everything is intertwined - it's a chain reaction that you can't even fully predict. Countries having to divert resources from advancing industries to fill peoples' bellies, which in turn weighs on economy and production of useful commodities said Japan/Taiwan/EU directly or indirectly consume - increasing prices... etc etc.

Europe as a reaction is investing millions into alternative energy, dunno how you would describe that if not advancing industries

Its divesting money but yall are acting like that is a bad thing in itself. Its a crisis and is pushing governments into new directions I dont think anybody here can for certainty claim if they are going to be good or bad

[PhaelixWW]

This is bad math, those missiles go for $50+ million a pop.

I'm not sure there's been a reliable price tag confirmed for the missiles used by Russia.

[Gaidax]

Europe as a reaction is investing millions into alternative energy, dunno how you would describe that if not advancing industries

Its divesting money but yall are acting like that is a bad thing in itself. Its a crisis and is pushing governments into new directions I dont think anybody here can for certainty claim if they are going to be good or bad

What you described now is like looking in a muddy puddle of shit, spotting some clean water spot and saying "look good things happen".

Bottom line - this is a huge investment that did not have to happen right fucking now and it's money that got diverted from other no less important things. It's not some miracle money that just appeared from the thin air - many governments will have to borrow to fill this hole, which puts them in long term debt with all the outcomes of that.

[Elegiac]

Because the reality is that on Earth there is X amount of grain, Y amount of gas and Z amount of silicone produced yearly (Russia is second producer after China btw).

Again; not what I'm asking, but alright.

[Easo]

Europe as a reaction is investing millions into alternative energy, dunno how you would describe that if not advancing industries

Its divesting money but yall are acting like that is a bad thing in itself. Its a crisis and is pushing governments into new directions I dont think anybody here can for certainty claim if they are going to be good or bad

The thing is - those changes will take decades overall. Sanctions impact everything pretty much right away. The average person cares mostly about what is in his fridge and when that fridge is empty (or fuel is twice as expensive) he might start seeking someone to blame.
This is why this is and should be a careful balancing act, to ensure Russia rolls over before we do.

[Jastall]

There are so many cherries on top that it's almost a meme. The list is truly long.

US leadership probably can't believe their own luck and if it was actually part of the plan, then color me impressed.

Putin really fucked this one up so hard that he probably slaps himself in front of the mirror when nobody is around to see that. Maybe the gigantic table is to hide the reddened cheeks.

I doubt it was a plan. The Pentagon thought Ukraine would fold quickly if memory serves. At most I'd say American support for Ukraine pre-war was a bait, to tempt Putin into overreaction, IE via militarily occupying the Republics or somesuch so Europe is forced closer to the US. They didn't expect the Kremlin to go full retard and not only invade the entire country, but to be such incompetents about it. At least probably not until the last couple weeks beforehand where Russian troop movements became a crystal clear indicator as to their intentions.

But yeah, they definitely can't believe their luck. This one move single-handedly obliterated Russian soft power, greatly weakened their economy, dispelled most myths as to their strength while also marking them as enough of a threat to get Europe spooked. It's an even more colossal screw-up than Irak, whose dire consequences were at least (relatively speaking) mostly felt by locals rather than Americans. Russians lost a lot to this venture on the pollical, military and economic fronts, and for what? More of a stranglehold on Crimea than they already had, probably more control over a small portion of Ukraine that they already influenced by proxy and "guarantees" that Ukraine will do their damnest to liberate themselves from as soon as humanly possible? Even claiming it's a Pyrrhic victory sounds quite charitable to me.

While striking, the bear made clear its flanks are made of paper. Silly bear.

[Fugus]

There won't be any nukes.

I know there is this "madman Putin" meme, but he's really not that. And even if you'd entertain the notion he is a wacko ready to slam that proverbial red button - Russia also has checks and balances on that one.

All this "highest alert" crap is simply psychological warfare and it even somewhat works, because nobody wants to gamble and lose.

Exactly my point, he is using the Nukes as a deterrent and trying to play like he has little to lose if he is countered on this. But that is largely a bluff that can likely be called without too much worry of that for the simple fact that even if he lost this conflict, even if he lost his position, even if he lost his life, he still has something that should be worth more to him than that that he doesn't want to risk losing, his family.

The only realistic way you will see nukes being put on the table by Putin is if he has some progressive mental disease that deteriorates his ability to think or someone takes out his kids at which point he REALLY has nothing left to lose.

[Gaidax]

The only realistic way you will see nukes being put on the table by Putin is if he has some progressive mental disease that deteriorates his ability to think or someone takes out his kids at which point he REALLY has nothing left to lose.

The people who put him there and keep him there would off him the moment it's a thing anyway.

It's not even about children or "something to lose", he is a mere mortal, not Iron Man and not a god. He's not even Kim Jong Un, even that guy needs to watch his back, let alone Putin.

He knows full well that if he tries - he won't be a thing one way or another even before anyone bothers to launch.

- - - Updated - - -

I doubt it was a plan. The Pentagon thought Ukraine would fold quickly if memory serves. At most I'd say American support for Ukraine pre-war was a bait, to tempt Putin into overreaction, IE via militarily occupying the Republics or somesuch so Europe is forced closer to the US. They didn't expect the Kremlin to go full retard and not only invade the entire country, but to be such incompetents about it. At least probably not until the last couple weeks beforehand where Russian troop movements became a crystal clear indicator as to their intentions.

But yeah, they definitely can't believe their luck. This one move single-handedly obliterated Russian soft power, greatly weakened their economy, dispelled most myths as to their strength while also marking them as enough of a threat to get Europe spooked. It's an even more colossal screw-up than Irak, whose dire consequences were at least (relatively speaking) mostly felt by locals rather than Americans. Russians lost a lot to this venture on the pollical, military and economic fronts, and for what? More of a stranglehold on Crimea than they already had, probably more control over a small portion of Ukraine that they already influenced by proxy and "guarantees" that Ukraine will do their damnest to liberate themselves from as soon as humanly possible? Even claiming it's a Pyrrhic victory sounds quite charitable to me.

While striking, the bear made clear its flanks are made of paper. Silly bear.

Yes. Pretty much.

There was a bait 100% and yes the luck is that not only Putin took the bait, but he fucked it up royally too combined with Ukraine actually putting up a fight.

[Vankrys]

The only realistic way you will see nukes being put on the table by Putin is if he has some progressive mental disease that deteriorates his ability to think or someone takes out his kids at which point he REALLY has nothing left to lose.

i honestly think there is a non zero probability that Russia may use small yield tactical nuke against Ukraine if Putin is frustrated enough and needs a win.