1. #12021
    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    Because by the logic of the other person: It wasn't directed at the West, and that we will never go to war over Ukraine's destruction. And he has the threat leverage in that he is evidently not messing around and just showed it.
    Such severe sanctions suggests that's not 100% cut and dry.

  2. #12022
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Broski...

    First of all NATO is already off the table if you bothered to even check. Zelensky himself said so, because the hard cold truth is that NATO not going to welcome Ukraine as its member in the next decade, if at all.

    The rest - there absolutely will be a compromise, because it's Ukraine that has a gun to its head, not other way around. I don't know what that compromise end up looking like, but there will be concessions there.

    For example, I am almost sure Crimea will go to Russia proper in some kind of hack deal like land purchase or some such. Ukraine in EU, Russia may concede there and instead have their friends in EU torpedo the whole thing or bog it down like Russian armor north of Kiev.

    Donbas is the only think I totally have no idea how will go, because it can go a dozen different ways - plenty of room for negotiations maneuvering there for both sides.
    Said so is the same BS crap people said before Russia invaded.
    Nato application is back on the table if Zelensky feels like it.

  3. #12023
    The Lightbringer bladeXcrasher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vankrys View Post
    Is it really? I mean, one thing years of watching things happening in the world taught me that just because someone or some organisation said that that particular thing will never happen doesn't mean it will never happen.

    Plenty of time i have seen people, countries, organisations, walking back their previous statements or promises. Foreign policy is not about honor or justice, it's about power and how to yield it.

    That being said, let's be cynical/analytical for a moment. Why would NATO want Ukraine? Accepting a new country in the alliance is a liability. It means you have to potentially answer the call, expend money, man power and political capital to defend it, it has to be worth it. And Ukraine lives in a very bad neighborhood if you allow me the language. But Ukraine has a great natural ressource potential, oil and gas, largely unexploited, which could help Europe be less dependent on Russia. Ukraine also has the most fertile land of Europe and can really help feed Europe.

    So yes, i do think Europe wants Ukraine in its rank, and i won't be surprised at all if NATO walk back its comment and accept Ukraine in the alliance.
    Really only need EU membership to accomplish that, even the EU in and of itself has a defensive pact between member states, doesn't it?

  4. #12024
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bladeXcrasher View Post
    Really only need EU membership to accomplish that, even the EU in and of itself has a defensive pact between member states, doesn't it?
    Sorta, the pact doesn't exactly say that the countries are obliged to help with soldiers but it does say that every form of help is required in case of a military assault. Wiggle room ya know?

  5. #12025
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    US and EU supporting Kyiv with massive flow of weapons and military equipment has made it almost impossible for Russia to capture the bigger cities by conventional means. Therefore, Russia has switched to bombing the cities into submission instead. Mariupol is/was the first big city to get demolished. The next will probably be Kharkiv or Kyiv itself... maaaybe Odessa, but Russia quite likes it so probably not. Meanwhile, US and EU will remain committed to sending more and more weapons to Ukraine -- causing the bombings to only intensify.

  6. #12026
    Quote Originally Posted by Uzkin View Post
    US and EU supporting Kyiv with massive flow of weapons and military equipment has made it almost impossible for Russia to capture the bigger cities by conventional means. Therefore, Russia has switched to bombing the cities into submission instead. Mariupol is/was the first big city to get demolished. The next will probably be Kharkiv or Kyiv itself... maaaybe Odessa, but Russia quite likes it so probably not. Meanwhile, US and EU will remain committed to sending more and more weapons to Ukraine -- causing the bombings to only intensify.
    that is terrible
    "Truth...justice, honor, freedom! Vain indulgences, every one(...) I know what I want, and I take it. I take advantage of whatever I can, and discard that which I cannot. There is no room for sentiment or guilt."

  7. #12027
    Quote Originally Posted by ati87 View Post
    Said so is the same BS crap people said before Russia invaded. Nato application is back on the table if Zelensky feels like it.
    Hmm...I think joining NATO is off the table for today. Tomorrow however...well, Putin is 70yrs old.

  8. #12028
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowferal View Post
    Hmm...I think joining NATO is off the table for today. Tomorrow however...well, Putin is 70yrs old.
    40+ years of murder going by his career history.
    "Truth...justice, honor, freedom! Vain indulgences, every one(...) I know what I want, and I take it. I take advantage of whatever I can, and discard that which I cannot. There is no room for sentiment or guilt."

  9. #12029
    Herald of the Titans CostinR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    Sorta, the pact doesn't exactly say that the countries are obliged to help with soldiers but it does say that every form of help is required in case of a military assault. Wiggle room ya know?
    There's wiggle room with NATO as well. Here is what Article 5 reads

    The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
    So basically if you attack say Estonia then it is considered an armed attack on all member nations. However the wiggle room is in the response, since it doesn't have any specifics there beyond what actions are deemed necesary.

    What keeps the leaders of the Baltics and Poland up at night isn't that Russia might invade them, they've had to deal with that fact for many years, but rather that if Russia does invade NATO might not do much to save them. That's why Poland spends so much on defense, because they want to make it as painful for Russia as possible because they are afraid Western Europe and the US wouldn't march enormous forces to save them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    They literally can't take Ukraine with what they have there now.
    Gonna have to disagree with you strongly on that. Yes Russia failed to take Ukraine even with all their forces deployed, but it took them almost two weeks to even send all their initial troops, and even then they were still trying to achieve the initial foolish invasion plan.

    What we are seeing Russia do over the last few days is change strategy after their initial one failed...well it failed on day 1 but don't tell Moscow that. They are redeploying forces to the East, their immediate goal is to take Mariupol and free up roughly a dozen tactical battalions which they will then use to encircle/destroy/force to withdraw Ukrainian forces in Donbass while also moving cut off Ukraine from East of the Dnieper.

    This is going to take weeks but it is a very achievable goal. Once that is done Kharkiv and Chernihiv will follow in terms of being encircled, and then Kiev and Odessa, but that is several months down the line.

    Can Russia and Ukraine maintain a war for 3-6 months. Yes they can.

    EDIT: I understand the desire you express that a negotiated solution can be achieved, I really do. We're seeing 1/10 of Ukraine's entire population fleeing the country, entire cities destroyed, children killed and I really do not wish to see the aftermath of half a year of fighting in Ukraine.

    However Russia and Ukraine will continue to fight and neither side is really giving ground in negotiations so far.
    Last edited by CostinR; 2022-03-22 at 01:50 PM.
    "Life is one long series of problems to solve. The more you solve, the better a man you become.... Tribulations spawn in life and over and over again we must stand our ground and face them."

  10. #12030
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    First I said other parties are involved and second you didn't answer the question, what's your plan?
    The question huh? You asked three. Last I checked, I answered what I felt was The question. I suppose you mean your third, and since it's loaded with condition that you made up, and happens to be very vaguely undefined, I don't consider it of any consequence.

    I'll answer the second, in a way: without receiving reinforcements and constant supply, Russias pitiful terrorist band will not survive a month. Regardless of how much certain sorts absolutely love to bang the defeatist drum, along with practically yelling RUSKI STRONK, RUSKI DECIM, DESTYOR, RUSKI NOT EVEN IN FINAL FORM YET11!.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jtbrig7390 View Post
    True, I was just bored and tired but you are correct.

    Last edited by Thwart; Today at 05:21 PM. Reason: Infracted for flaming
    Quote Originally Posted by epigramx View Post
    millennials were the kids of the 9/11 survivors.

  11. #12031
    Quote Originally Posted by Azadina View Post
    The question huh? You asked three. Last I checked, I answered what I felt was The question. I suppose you mean your third, and since it's loaded with condition that you made up, and happens to be very vaguely undefined, I don't consider it of any consequence.

    I'll answer the second, in a way: without receiving reinforcements and constant supply, Russias pitiful terrorist band will not survive a month. Regardless of how much certain sorts absolutely love to bang the defeatist drum, along with practically yelling RUSKI STRONK, RUSKI DECIM, DESTYOR, RUSKI NOT EVEN IN FINAL FORM YET11!.
    You mean another month because it will be a month in just a bit, so your strategy is fight until the end regardless of how many die.
    Last edited by Draco-Onis; 2022-03-22 at 01:34 PM.

  12. #12032
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    You mean another month because it will be a month in just a bit, so your strategy is fight until the end regardless of how many die.
    Month from this day, correct.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jtbrig7390 View Post
    True, I was just bored and tired but you are correct.

    Last edited by Thwart; Today at 05:21 PM. Reason: Infracted for flaming
    Quote Originally Posted by epigramx View Post
    millennials were the kids of the 9/11 survivors.

  13. #12033
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vankrys View Post
    Is it really? *NATO 5D chess secretly prepping to launch WW3 vs Russia over some nobodies* noises
    Do you like know what NATO even is?

    It's no.1 priority and mission is to ensure its members are not getting invaded. Last thing they want to do is to sabotage that by involving themselves with Ukraine. NATO loyalty and obligations are to its current members first and foremost.

    Yes individual politicians and governments may be hawkish and say a lot of BS publicly like "we gotta act", but the last thing they want is to actually expose themselves to a conflict they can happily avoid.

    NATO is not Avengers. They won't rush to protect poor Ukraine against Russian bear ever, unless it is legit WW3 already.

  14. #12034
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    You mean another month because it will be a month in just a bit, so your strategy is fight until the end regardless of how many die.
    Shockingly people are more likely to keep fighting when you threaten their entire way of life.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  15. #12035
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    You mean another month because it will be a month in just a bit, so your strategy is fight until the end regardless of how many die.
    Yeah, as opposed to giving and being slaughtered, starved or deported to work camps, while having your whole way of life turned upside down anyways?

    Russia doesn't exactly have a great track record when it comes to countries it occupies and turns into a satellite. Living standards tend to go down dramatically.

  16. #12036
    I am Murloc!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Do you like know what NATO even is?

    It's no.1 priority and mission is to ensure its members are not getting invaded. Last thing they want to do is to sabotage that by involving themselves with Ukraine. NATO loyalty and obligations are to its current members first and foremost.

    Yes individual politicians and governments may be hawkish and say a lot of BS publicly like "we gotta act", but the last thing they want is to actually expose themselves to a conflict they can happily avoid.

    NATO is not Avengers. They won't rush to protect poor Ukraine against Russian bear ever, unless it is legit WW3 already.
    I think you misunderstand my meaning (and straw manning my message).
    I never say NATO would accept Ukraine membership while it's being invaded, that obvious. I say, never say never when it comes to foreign affair. The enemies of yesterday are the allies of today.
    I think you are making the same mistake as the Russian, thinking NATO is some kind of overlord its members must obey, it's not. NATO is a just a defense pact that clearly state diplomacy and peaceful means should be sought before any armed conflict.
    It is entirely possible down the road, once the dust settle, Ukraine be joining NATO. You haven't shown any valid reason why it wouldn't possible. Because Zelinsky promises not to? Please, tell me you are not that naive.

  17. #12037
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Less than 24 hours after our resident Pro-Russia armchair generals made it very clear that in their unequalled and absolutely correct opinion that Ukraine had zero chances at pushing Russia out, and that the best they could do was slow them down, Ukraine pushes Russia out of Kyiv suburbs, retaking a highway and cutting off Russian troops trying to surround Kyiv.

    Thank god for the military experts on this forum. Without them, we'd be truly lost and unable to analyze anything happening.

  18. #12038
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vankrys View Post
    I think you misunderstand my meaning (and straw manning my message).
    I never say NATO would accept Ukraine membership while it's being invaded, that obvious. I say, never say never when it comes to foreign affair. The enemies of yesterday are the allies of today.
    I think you are making the same mistake as the Russian, thinking NATO is some kind of overlord its members must obey, it's not. NATO is a just a defense pact that clearly state diplomacy and peaceful means should be sought before any armed conflict.
    It is entirely possible down the road, once the dust settle, Ukraine be joining NATO. You haven't shown any valid reason why it wouldn't possible. Because Zelinsky promises not to? Please, tell me you are not that naive.
    You know why Russia keeps spawning them "People's Republics" all over the place? One of the key things is to keep countries hosting them in a state of potential conflict at moment's notice.

    That alone blocks any chance of NATO inviting said country ever. Ukraine has snowball's chance of getting into NATO as long as Donbas and even Crimea are a thing. It's really that simple. NATO does not invite trouble on itself, it goes completely against its core mission.

  19. #12039
    Quote Originally Posted by Belize View Post
    Yeah, as opposed to giving and being slaughtered, starved or deported to work camps, while having your whole way of life turned upside down anyways?

    Russia doesn't exactly have a great track record when it comes to countries it occupies and turns into a satellite. Living standards tend to go down dramatically.
    Why do people think those are the only options? you guys watch way too many movies, if Zelensky thought that he wouldn't be trying to compromise by lowering his demands. Russia isn't Nazi Germany the Germans were way more competent.

  20. #12040
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Belize View Post
    Less than 24 hours after our resident Pro-Russia armchair generals made it very clear that in their unequalled and absolutely correct opinion that Ukraine had zero chances at pushing Russia out, and that the best they could do was slow them down, Ukraine pushes Russia out of Kyiv suburbs, retaking a highway and cutting off Russian troops trying to surround Kyiv.

    Thank god for the military experts on this forum. Without them, we'd be truly lost and unable to analyze anything happening.
    You simply don't get it, ma boi.

    Some minor back and forths are nothing to write home about, the bottom line that said "armchair generals" tell you is that Ukraine simply is incapable of evicting Russia from its land by force.

    Yes, there will be some back and forth, of course there will be - Ukraine clears some road, Russia grabs some village etc etc. But the big picture is that it's simply a stalemate, Ukraine can't win militarily in this war.

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