Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

Really only need EU membership to accomplish that, even the EU in and of itself has a defensive pact between member states, doesn't it?

Sorta, the pact doesn't exactly say that the countries are obliged to help with soldiers but it does say that every form of help is required in case of a military assault. Wiggle room ya know?

[Uzkin]

US and EU supporting Kyiv with massive flow of weapons and military equipment has made it almost impossible for Russia to capture the bigger cities by conventional means. Therefore, Russia has switched to bombing the cities into submission instead. Mariupol is/was the first big city to get demolished. The next will probably be Kharkiv or Kyiv itself... maaaybe Odessa, but Russia quite likes it so probably not. Meanwhile, US and EU will remain committed to sending more and more weapons to Ukraine -- causing the bombings to only intensify.

[YUPPIE]

US and EU supporting Kyiv with massive flow of weapons and military equipment has made it almost impossible for Russia to capture the bigger cities by conventional means. Therefore, Russia has switched to bombing the cities into submission instead. Mariupol is/was the first big city to get demolished. The next will probably be Kharkiv or Kyiv itself... maaaybe Odessa, but Russia quite likes it so probably not. Meanwhile, US and EU will remain committed to sending more and more weapons to Ukraine -- causing the bombings to only intensify.

that is terrible

[Shadowferal]

Said so is the same BS crap people said before Russia invaded. Nato application is back on the table if Zelensky feels like it.

Hmm...I think joining NATO is off the table for today. Tomorrow however...well, Putin is 70yrs old.

[YUPPIE]

Hmm...I think joining NATO is off the table for today. Tomorrow however...well, Putin is 70yrs old.

40+ years of murder going by his career history.

[Elenos]

Sorta, the pact doesn't exactly say that the countries are obliged to help with soldiers but it does say that every form of help is required in case of a military assault. Wiggle room ya know?

There's wiggle room with NATO as well. Here is what Article 5 reads

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

So basically if you attack say Estonia then it is considered an armed attack on all member nations. However the wiggle room is in the response, since it doesn't have any specifics there beyond what actions are deemed necesary.

What keeps the leaders of the Baltics and Poland up at night isn't that Russia might invade them, they've had to deal with that fact for many years, but rather that if Russia does invade NATO might not do much to save them. That's why Poland spends so much on defense, because they want to make it as painful for Russia as possible because they are afraid Western Europe and the US wouldn't march enormous forces to save them.

They literally can't take Ukraine with what they have there now.

Gonna have to disagree with you strongly on that. Yes Russia failed to take Ukraine even with all their forces deployed, but it took them almost two weeks to even send all their initial troops, and even then they were still trying to achieve the initial foolish invasion plan.

What we are seeing Russia do over the last few days is change strategy after their initial one failed...well it failed on day 1 but don't tell Moscow that. They are redeploying forces to the East, their immediate goal is to take Mariupol and free up roughly a dozen tactical battalions which they will then use to encircle/destroy/force to withdraw Ukrainian forces in Donbass while also moving cut off Ukraine from East of the Dnieper.

This is going to take weeks but it is a very achievable goal. Once that is done Kharkiv and Chernihiv will follow in terms of being encircled, and then Kiev and Odessa, but that is several months down the line.

Can Russia and Ukraine maintain a war for 3-6 months. Yes they can.

EDIT: I understand the desire you express that a negotiated solution can be achieved, I really do. We're seeing 1/10 of Ukraine's entire population fleeing the country, entire cities destroyed, children killed and I really do not wish to see the aftermath of half a year of fighting in Ukraine.

However Russia and Ukraine will continue to fight and neither side is really giving ground in negotiations so far.

[Azadina]

First I said other parties are involved and second you didn't answer the question, what's your plan?

The question huh? You asked three. Last I checked, I answered what I felt was The question. I suppose you mean your third, and since it's loaded with condition that you made up, and happens to be very vaguely undefined, I don't consider it of any consequence.

I'll answer the second, in a way: without receiving reinforcements and constant supply, Russias pitiful terrorist band will not survive a month. Regardless of how much certain sorts absolutely love to bang the defeatist drum, along with practically yelling RUSKI STRONK, RUSKI DECIM, DESTYOR, RUSKI NOT EVEN IN FINAL FORM YET11!.

[Draco-Onis]

The question huh? You asked three. Last I checked, I answered what I felt was The question. I suppose you mean your third, and since it's loaded with condition that you made up, and happens to be very vaguely undefined, I don't consider it of any consequence.

I'll answer the second, in a way: without receiving reinforcements and constant supply, Russias pitiful terrorist band will not survive a month. Regardless of how much certain sorts absolutely love to bang the defeatist drum, along with practically yelling RUSKI STRONK, RUSKI DECIM, DESTYOR, RUSKI NOT EVEN IN FINAL FORM YET11!.

You mean another month because it will be a month in just a bit, so your strategy is fight until the end regardless of how many die.

[Azadina]

You mean another month because it will be a month in just a bit, so your strategy is fight until the end regardless of how many die.

Month from this day, correct.

[Gaidax]

Is it really? *NATO 5D chess secretly prepping to launch WW3 vs Russia over some nobodies* noises

Do you like know what NATO even is?

It's no.1 priority and mission is to ensure its members are not getting invaded. Last thing they want to do is to sabotage that by involving themselves with Ukraine. NATO loyalty and obligations are to its current members first and foremost.

Yes individual politicians and governments may be hawkish and say a lot of BS publicly like "we gotta act", but the last thing they want is to actually expose themselves to a conflict they can happily avoid.

NATO is not Avengers. They won't rush to protect poor Ukraine against Russian bear ever, unless it is legit WW3 already.

[Gorsameth]

You mean another month because it will be a month in just a bit, so your strategy is fight until the end regardless of how many die.

Shockingly people are more likely to keep fighting when you threaten their entire way of life.

[Belize]

You mean another month because it will be a month in just a bit, so your strategy is fight until the end regardless of how many die.

Yeah, as opposed to giving and being slaughtered, starved or deported to work camps, while having your whole way of life turned upside down anyways?

Russia doesn't exactly have a great track record when it comes to countries it occupies and turns into a satellite. Living standards tend to go down dramatically.

[Vankrys]

Do you like know what NATO even is?

It's no.1 priority and mission is to ensure its members are not getting invaded. Last thing they want to do is to sabotage that by involving themselves with Ukraine. NATO loyalty and obligations are to its current members first and foremost.

Yes individual politicians and governments may be hawkish and say a lot of BS publicly like "we gotta act", but the last thing they want is to actually expose themselves to a conflict they can happily avoid.

NATO is not Avengers. They won't rush to protect poor Ukraine against Russian bear ever, unless it is legit WW3 already.

I think you misunderstand my meaning (and straw manning my message).
I never say NATO would accept Ukraine membership while it's being invaded, that obvious. I say, never say never when it comes to foreign affair. The enemies of yesterday are the allies of today.
I think you are making the same mistake as the Russian, thinking NATO is some kind of overlord its members must obey, it's not. NATO is a just a defense pact that clearly state diplomacy and peaceful means should be sought before any armed conflict.
It is entirely possible down the road, once the dust settle, Ukraine be joining NATO. You haven't shown any valid reason why it wouldn't possible. Because Zelinsky promises not to? Please, tell me you are not that naive.

[Belize]

Less than 24 hours after our resident Pro-Russia armchair generals made it very clear that in their unequalled and absolutely correct opinion that Ukraine had zero chances at pushing Russia out, and that the best they could do was slow them down, Ukraine pushes Russia out of Kyiv suburbs, retaking a highway and cutting off Russian troops trying to surround Kyiv.

Thank god for the military experts on this forum. Without them, we'd be truly lost and unable to analyze anything happening.

[Gaidax]

I think you misunderstand my meaning (and straw manning my message).
I never say NATO would accept Ukraine membership while it's being invaded, that obvious. I say, never say never when it comes to foreign affair. The enemies of yesterday are the allies of today.
I think you are making the same mistake as the Russian, thinking NATO is some kind of overlord its members must obey, it's not. NATO is a just a defense pact that clearly state diplomacy and peaceful means should be sought before any armed conflict.
It is entirely possible down the road, once the dust settle, Ukraine be joining NATO. You haven't shown any valid reason why it wouldn't possible. Because Zelinsky promises not to? Please, tell me you are not that naive.

You know why Russia keeps spawning them "People's Republics" all over the place? One of the key things is to keep countries hosting them in a state of potential conflict at moment's notice.

That alone blocks any chance of NATO inviting said country ever. Ukraine has snowball's chance of getting into NATO as long as Donbas and even Crimea are a thing. It's really that simple. NATO does not invite trouble on itself, it goes completely against its core mission.

[Draco-Onis]

Yeah, as opposed to giving and being slaughtered, starved or deported to work camps, while having your whole way of life turned upside down anyways?

Russia doesn't exactly have a great track record when it comes to countries it occupies and turns into a satellite. Living standards tend to go down dramatically.

Why do people think those are the only options? you guys watch way too many movies, if Zelensky thought that he wouldn't be trying to compromise by lowering his demands. Russia isn't Nazi Germany the Germans were way more competent.

[Gaidax]

Less than 24 hours after our resident Pro-Russia armchair generals made it very clear that in their unequalled and absolutely correct opinion that Ukraine had zero chances at pushing Russia out, and that the best they could do was slow them down, Ukraine pushes Russia out of Kyiv suburbs, retaking a highway and cutting off Russian troops trying to surround Kyiv.

Thank god for the military experts on this forum. Without them, we'd be truly lost and unable to analyze anything happening.

You simply don't get it, ma boi.

Some minor back and forths are nothing to write home about, the bottom line that said "armchair generals" tell you is that Ukraine simply is incapable of evicting Russia from its land by force.

Yes, there will be some back and forth, of course there will be - Ukraine clears some road, Russia grabs some village etc etc. But the big picture is that it's simply a stalemate, Ukraine can't win militarily in this war.

[Draco-Onis]

Month from this day, correct.

You do realize you are basically asking Ukraine to enter a never ending war right? because even if you are right Russia isn't going to entirely pull out of Ukraine, they will always have forces in the separatist regions and the fighting would never stop. There's no situation where Ukraine on its own gets its entire territory back from Russia and gets peace in the process.

[Shadowferal]

Yeah, as opposed to giving and being slaughtered, starved or deported to work camps, while having your whole way of life turned upside down anyways?

Hm..adds perspective to Putin's reasoning of a refugee corridor to Russia.

[Vankrys]

You know why Russia keeps spawning them "People's Republics" all over the place? One of the key things is to keep countries hosting them in a state of potential conflict at moment's notice.

That alone blocks any chance of NATO inviting said country ever. Ukraine has snowball's chance of getting into NATO as long as Donbas and even Crimea are a thing. It's really that simple. NATO does not invite trouble on itself, it goes completely against its core mission.

I'm sure someone said at some point that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will never join NATO.
I'm sure someone said at some point that Sweden and Finland will never join NATO, they're thinking about it now.
And you say Ukraine will never join NATO.

You must know something no one else does.