Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Azadina]

That's right you tell that coward Zelensky to grow a spine and stop trying to negotiate a diplomatic solution by conceding points every week like the Russians are doing.

He has been doing pretty fine so far. Had you been President of Ukraine, on day one of the invasion, not only would you have taken the offered ride out, you would have;

- sold off the next 5 generations as indentured servants to Russia, because ya know, lives important, gotta appease Russia
- given away all the rights to Ukraines natural resources to Russia
- handed over any part of the land Russia wanted

[MCMLXXXII]

Got it, you don’t know the definition. A concentration camp can most assuredly be political prisoners.

Yeah but for Nazis they ended up in death camps so that automatically changes the definition, right? /s

[zealo]

So basically nothing, that's what I thought.

Here's a shocker for you - sanctions will also be on negotiations table - that's the only real leverage Ukraine has.

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Toppling Ukrainian government is not on the books for Russia anymore. It's part of realization.

You people need to get up to speed there.

I'm sure Russia is absolutely salivating at the idea of Ukraine not sanctioning them afterwards.

Ukraine has no real control over the sanctions that's actually hurting Russia here, and neither is Ukraine the ones Russia needs to get to go along with that for lifting of them.

[Mihalik]

There seems to be reports that Belorussian citizens and railway workers are sabotaging their own railway services to impede Russian logistics. *chuckle*

https://belsat.eu/en/news/02-03-2022...nother-attack/
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russ.../31761964.html
https://spring96.org/be/news/107024 (You need to run this through google translate- At least 8 "rail guerrillas" detained since the beginning of the war: what is known about "rail war" in Belarus)

[Draco-Onis]

He has been doing pretty fine so far. Had you been President of Ukraine, on day one of the invasion, not only would you have taken the offered ride out, you would have;

- sold off the next 5 generations as indentured servants to Russia, because ya know, lives important, gotta appease Russia
- given away all the rights to Ukraines natural resources to Russia
- handed over any part of the land Russia wanted

But you've basically equated diplomacy to cowardice and he said that's the only way to end this war. Since he doesn't trust Russia he wants a third party for security guarantees obviously not let's fight until the end strategy you are advocating for.

[Afrospinach]

Apparently, the Belarus railway workers aren't too keen with the war in Ukraine and the use of their country as a staging ground. The railway connection between Belarus and Ukraine have suddenly fallen into disrepair and can no longer be used, for the moment, to reinforce and resupply Russian forces in northern Ukraine.
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russ.../31761964.html

Oddly enough this kind of sabotage was quite pervasive in WW2 for the Nazis as well. It is one of the reasons given for the fact that their tanks became so unreliable toward the end of the war.

[Azadina]

But you've basically equated diplomacy to cowardice and he said that's the only way to end this war. Since he doesn't trust Russia he wants a third party for security guarantees obviously not let's fight until the end strategy you are advocating for.

Cowardice is it's own thing entirely. It's entirely possible for two parties to do diplomacy, with one party being spineless coward, and the other one not.

It's also possible for outside observers sitting in complete safety to exhibit spades of cowardice, while the ones in warzone may not. Isn't that pretty interesting?

So no, I've basically equated spineless cowards as cowards, that's all.

[Milchshake]

A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the Russian war on Ukraine just concluded. It’s Day 27 since the Russian invasion.

• Fighting in and around the southern port city of Mariupol remains fierce, as Russia tries to claim a first strategic victory after weeks of fighting. It now includes naval shelling launched from the Sea of Azov, the senior defense official said.
• Near the southern city of Mykolaiv, there are now signs that the Russians are repositioning themselves outside the city to the south after facing fierce resistance from Ukrainians, senior U.S. defense official says.
• As reported elsewhere, there is a Ukrainian effort afoot to retake terrain they had lost to Russia. Pentagon isn’t commenting on specific locations, but senior defense official says “we’re starting to see indications” that Ukraine is “now able and willing to take back territory.”
• Still little clarity on Russian casualty numbers, after an unexpected report from a Russian tabloid yesterday said that more than 9,000 Russian soldiers had been killed. Russia has since blamed that report on a hack.
• The Pentagon is “aware of that incident,” but can’t say whether the report was a hack, a protest or someone “making a statement.”
• U.S. estimates of Russian combat deaths are still nebulous. “Even our best estimates are just that, and we have low confidence in them.”
• Continued discussion about Russia reinforcing its military in Ukraine. If it does so, the senior defense official says, “the most likely scenario would be that they would draw them from outside of Russia.” That said, other options are available for Russian reinforcements. “I can’t rule out that they wouldn’t pull out reinforcements from in Russia, too,” senior U.S. defense official says.
• President Biden raised yesterday concerns about Russia potentially using chem/bio weapons. The senior defense official says they still have no signs that anything is imminent, but Russian officials “continue to talk about this.”
• Some fidelity on Russian naval action. There are about 21 Russian ships in the Black Sea, senior defense official says. That includes 12 surface combatants and nine tank landing ships.
• Russian forces are still roughly in the same positions outside Kyiv: 15 km northwest of the city center, and 30 km east. “We just have not seen a lot of movement on their part.”
• Senior U.S. defense official says that its deconfliction line with Russia for this conflict is tested every day “and the Russians are picking up.” Calls that a “good thing.”
• Senior U.S. defense officials compares current U.S.-Russia deconfliction line for Ukraine war with a similar line set up years ago for operations in Syria that still exists. It has narrow goals, he implies. “It’s a deconfliction line. It’s not a complaint line.”
• Continued morale issues among Russian soldiers seen, senior defense official says.
• In addition to food and fuel shortages, the Pentagon now observes frostbite as an issue.

Not planning for a long conflict. Missing out on rotation of forward forces.

[snebb]

Russian troops ‘suffering from frostbite as deployed without* proper cold-weather gear'
Pentagon reporter Caitlin Doornbos, who contributes to the US-based Stars and Stripes news outlet, tweets comments from a US official, who has claimed Russian troops are “suffering from frostbite in some cases because they were not deployed with proper cold-weather gear”.

The above independent page has a wierd layout on mobile at least.

It's pretty well established that US intelligence has been more or less on point throughout the past weeks, and I'm very willing to believe this.

How the fuck did Russia, of all places, get this wrong?!

*Their headline has a clear typo of 'with', which should be without

[Edge-]

The above independent page has a wierd layout on mobile at least.

It's pretty well established that US intelligence has been more or less on point throughout the past weeks, and I'm very willing to believe this.

How the fuck did Russia, of all places, get this wrong?!

*Their headline has a clear typo of 'with', which should be without

Is...Russia having to learn the lesson they've historically taught to invaders? This timeline is freakin wild.

[Iphie]

How the fuck did Russia, of all places, get this wrong?!

They planned for a short war. Not for General Winter to bite them in the ass.

Edit: I say planned, but I'm starting to wonder exactly how much the army was involved and how much this was just Putin saying: "go".

[masterhorus8]

Is...Russia having to learn the lesson they've historically taught to invaders? This timeline is freakin wild.

This was the exact same thing I thought when I read it. It baffles my mind. But then again, not learning from history is indeed the best way to repeat it.

[Shadowferal]

Is...Russia having to learn the lesson they've historically taught to invaders? This timeline is freakin wild.

Might be libertarian...

[Milchshake]

The above independent page has a wierd layout on mobile at least.

It's pretty well established that US intelligence has been more or less on point throughout the past weeks, and I'm very willing to believe this.

How the fuck did Russia, of all places, get this wrong?!

Putin ... stepping on rakes and making more Hitler level mistakes.


Maybe he listens to the same podcasters as terminal contrarians on gaming forums.

[Breccia]

[*]In addition to food and fuel shortages, the Pentagon now observes frostbite as an issue.

How the fuck did Russia, of all places, get this wrong?!

I'll do you one better: why is Gamora? Why are Russian tanks getting stuck in spring-thaw mud while the troops are getting frostbite? It takes a special kind of leadership to get both sides of the weather wrong at the same time.

From Business Insider:

Russian forces are getting frostbite while fighting in Ukraine because they don't have adequate cold-weather gear, a senior US defense official said.

The official told reporters during a Tuesday Pentagon briefing that the frostbite problem had forced some Russian troops to the sidelines during the war.

"They're struggling on many fronts," the official said, according to the Task and Purpose reporter Haley Britzky.

It's the latest setback Russian forces have faced in their invasion of Ukraine, which began February 24.

A US defense official told reporters at a Monday background briefing that Russian forces were experiencing issues with morale within its ranks because they did not expect such a fierce resistance from Ukraine.

Many Russian troops also had no idea what orders they'd be forced to take in Ukraine, the official said. Russian forces were also having communication and logistical problems in Ukraine, the official said.

Russia's ongoing advance on Ukraine has appeared to be largely stalled across multiple fronts as it struggles to achieve significant military objectives.

If a friend or family member visits from the middle/south US way up here in (checks local sources) 38F weather and doesn't bring their jacket, they'll likely feel foolish and complain, but they'll be okay. Whoops. If they come for a week to go hiking, skiing or fishing without winter clothes, even in March, eventually they'll be outside below freezing. That's no longer "whoops" and balls-deep into "what was I thinking?" We've seen plenty of reports that Putin thought it'd be over weeks ago, this is just more of that.

It's the same temperature here as Kyiv, incidentally.

[Belize]

They planned for a short war. Not for General Winter to bite them in the ass.

Edit: I say planned, but I'm starting to wonder exactly how much the army was involved and how much this was just Putin saying: "go".

There's been credible reporting that Putin really thought that he would just waltz in Ukraine like he did in Crimea and simply have cities roll over for him.

Wether that's due to bad intel from yes-men or actual delusions is up for debate, but the results are the same. Russia did not go into Ukraine with "prolonged conflict against a resistant population" as a possible outcome.

[Breccia]

Is...Russia having to learn the lesson they've historically taught to invaders?

Napoleon invaded late June. This is the first day of spring. This feels like a different lesson to me.

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Putin ... stepping on rakes

"Sideshow Bubuska"?

[zealo]

Putin ... stepping on rakes and making more Hitler level mistakes.


Maybe he listens to the same podcasters as terminal contrarians on gaming forums.

Many in Putin's inner circle consists of a bunch of his buddies from the FSB and his time in the KGB, the BBC had a good article about who those people are earlier this month.

It's likely they were feeding him less than factual information about Ukraine cause they're afraid of him, if they weren't just as deluded as him to begin with.

[Belize]

It also gets worse for Ukraine, though.

The other outcome is that it gets worse for Ukraine, and Russia sits fatly on its newly acquired territory.

I understand that Ukraine has to sacrifice a lot. And I truly empathize with that, but as Zelenskyy has repeatedly said, and echoed by those fighting in Ukraine, they don't have a good alternative to sacrificing what they have right now to preserve their future.

Aid is flowing to Ukraine, the longer they can beat back Russian forces, the weaker Russia is in its negotiations for peace. We're already seeing cracks in the other former Soviet satellites that Russia has brought back into its fold by force. Literally all Ukraine has to do is hold on and last as long as possible.

Appeasement of Russian behavior is simply not a valid outcome here. It gives them the chance to rebuild their forces and invade the next country on their list and then you get more misery and pointless death in another 5-10 years.

[Mihalik]

There are indications that the Russians don't actually have a theater commander coordinating the invasion as a whole.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/21/p...war/index.html

The US has been unable to determine if Russia has designated a military commander responsible for leading the country's war in Ukraine, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter — something that current and former defense officials say is likely a key contributor to the apparent clumsiness and disorganization of the Russian assault.

Without a top, theater-wide commander on the ground in or near Ukraine, units from different Russian military districts operating in different parts of Ukraine appear to be competing for resources rather than coordinating their efforts, according to two US defense officials.
Units participating in different Russian offensives across Ukraine have failed to connect, these sources say, and in fact, appear to be acting independently with no overarching operational design.
Russian forces also appear to be having significant communication issues. Soldiers and commanders have at times used commercial cell phones and other unsecure channels to talk to each other, making their communications easier to intercept and helping Ukraine develop targets for their own counterstrikes.
It's all led to what these sources say has been a disjointed — and at times chaotic — operation that has surprised US and western officials.