Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Breccia]

It's likely they were feeding him less than factual information about Ukraine cause they're afraid of him, if they weren't just as deluded as him to begin with.

Okay...see...I don't get this. Oh, yeah I've posted it myself, I just don't see why anyone would do that. Leaving the Trump parallels aside, this isn't a situation where Putin could ask for something vague like "I want world leaders to respect me" or "I want inflation to go down" and you say you'll do something about it. This was a large visible 150,000 people and the truck they rode in on that the world could see. Delusion, fine, although one questions how even a corrupt military could be filled with insane people for 22 years. But if they knew Ukraine (a) could and (b) would fight back hard, why would you tell Putin they wouldn't? He kills people. One of his FSB buddies that was Putin's spy head since 2009? In house arrest, because of this. For all we know he's dead and "house arrest" is the cover story for why nobody's seen him. I posted on that today.

If they knew there was a problem, it would have made way more sense to make "mild" suggestions or just give different orders, along the lines of "Send 300,000 and tell everyone it's 100,000 also bring extra tank fuel and MREs you might be there longer than a week". Carrying out Putin's orders you knew would fail, is just as fatal as telling him "no". Feeding Putin misinformation about a war that was 100% open to the public to watch, where that misinformation becomes abundantly clear, is asking for your last request to be a fine cigar you enjoy for the rest of your half-life.

There's insane, but then there's suicide.

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There are indications that the Russians don't actually have a theater commander coordinating the invasion as a whole.

Oh...yeah, that answers the question right there, doesn't it? Everyone gets to say "this wasn't my fault, I wasn't in charge". I wonder if that makes a good tombstone?

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How did they rebuild or activate assets so deep after Trump ?

With as bad as morale is, and with how many of Russia's civilians oppose the war, I'm moderately sure I could get useful intel from Russia. Obviously US Intel can do a much better job than a math teacher whose high school Facebook group just so happens to have a Russian transfer student who's active and someone else who happens to be a state dept paper pusher behind a former Soviet bloc desk.

[Iphie]

Oh...yeah, that answers the question right there, doesn't it? Everyone gets to say "this wasn't my fault, I wasn't in charge". I wonder if that makes a good tombstone?

In the end that means there is only ONE person responsible for this: Putin himself as the Commander-in-Chief, right? So all fallout would be for him as well...

[Finlandia WOAT]

So all the innocent people that would die don't matter in this equation? Why do you think total surrender is the only option? Ukraine will have to compromise to make a deal, I don't think Zelensky want that many people to die in the name of pride.

Several things:

1) If Zelenskyy rushes into a favorable deal with the Kremlin when the only leverage the latter has is civilian hostages, what do you think will happen when Russia invades again in 5-10 years?

Letting the Kremlin know they can get what they want by massacring civilians sets a horrible precedent. It's why Kyiv rejected the Kremlin surrender terms for Mariupol.

2) They're not fighting for "pride", they're fighting for the right of Ukraine to self-determine it's future, whether it wants to be a Western nation or a Russian client state. Any deal that doesn't end with a strong security agreement is tantamount to surrendering that fight and accepting Ukraine is beholden to Moscow- because it means Moscow can just do this again, and next time it won't be a poorly supplied, poorly planned joke of a Blitzkrieg.

Granted, cheering for people to go out and die (albeit people who seem very willing to fight to the death, albeit albeit that could well be Ukrainian propaganda) from behind my computer screen a continent away is easy. I'm saying that the stakes here are more than just "pride", it's a fight for the future of Ukraine. Zelenskyy isn't exaggerating when he says this fight will decide Ukraine's future.

3) If the reports of high morale and general opprobrium toward all things Russian are true (and I believe the latter, people don't take kindly to being bombed and starved, only the Quislings of the 5th column of Kyiv, infested with the Russian propaganda brain worms, will actually side with the Russians on this), then Zelenskyy may well not have the political capital to negotiate a ceasefire. De-militarization? Yeah okay, sure.

4)IMO, the time for the Ukrainians to defeat the Russians is now. They don't have a great chance by any means, but the have a chance. Putin's invasion is poorly supplied, poorly equipped, basically SNAFU'ed in every possible way. Their logistics are shit. The Ukrainians are being supplied heavily by the West- the US aid package should start arriving soon-, their morale is high. Russian logistics are shit. Russia has failed to push into the country or capture (or even surround!) most of the major cities. Even the Western conservative estimates have the Russian forces taking horrific casualties while gaining virtually zero ground. Russian logistics are shit. Russian logistics are shit despite being an artillery army (the most logistically demanding army). Their logistics are shit and Trent the tire expert of Twitter speculates that within 6-8 weeks the Russian logistical truck fleet will be completely gone, the victim of "operational attrition" and getting blown up by angry Ukrainians with RPG's.

And if not now, then when? In 5-10 years, when Putin/the fascist strongman mafioso who replaces him does this again, but with better planning, better logistics and a more motivated force? Hoping for a Ukrainian victory is hopium...but what is signing whatever deal the Kremlin shoves at Zelenskyy and hoping that's the end of it? The Ukrainian's didn't believe that in 2014...they were right.

[Santti]

In the end that means there is only ONE person responsible for this: Putin himself as the Commander-in-Chief, right? So all fallout would be for him as well...

Oh definitely, but there is no way a strongman is going to take any blame, from anyone. It's always someone else's fault.

[Gorsameth]

That's the name of the hype man in my rap group, 2 Live Mensheviks.

Like every serious online pundit. I have a youtube for my other career in comedy, and a soundcloud for mumblecore rhymes.
/s



It's been critically under-rated, how amazing US intelligence is working in this crisis.
How did they rebuild or activate assets so deep after Trump ?
Or its simple but effective psyops.
Or both?

The President doesn't know what assets the CIA has, he has no need to know. Plus I would not be surprised at all if the intelligence community were careful about what they actually told Trump if he didn't absolutely need to know.

Those people are not stupid, they know what they are doing and how to protect their agents.

[Breccia]

In the end that means there is only ONE person responsible for this: Putin himself as the Commander-in-Chief, right?

Well, in the real world, yes. Putin is a murdering dictator, he "doesn't" make mistakes, the corpses floating downstream from his office made them because they are traitors to Most Glorious Mother Russia. We've discussed in this thread a few times, including how Russian soldiers who flee or give up were never really Russian soldiers but other people because True Yarans, I mean, Russians don't lose, quit, or lose faith.

[Edge-]

Russian military districts operating in different parts of Ukraine appear to be competing for resources rather than coordinating their efforts

I thought capitalism and competition was supposed to make things more efficient!?!

[Gorsameth]

Okay...see...I don't get this. Oh, yeah I've posted it myself, I just don't see why anyone would do that. Leaving the Trump parallels aside, this isn't a situation where Putin could ask for something vague like "I want world leaders to respect me" or "I want inflation to go down" and you say you'll do something about it. This was a large visible 150,000 people and the truck they rode in on that the world could see. Delusion, fine, although one questions how even a corrupt military could be filled with insane people for 22 years. But if they knew Ukraine (a) could and (b) would fight back hard, why would you tell Putin they wouldn't? He kills people. One of his FSB buddies that was Putin's spy head since 2009? In house arrest, because of this. For all we know he's dead and "house arrest" is the cover story for why nobody's seen him. I posted on that today.

If they knew there was a problem, it would have made way more sense to make "mild" suggestions or just give different orders, along the lines of "Send 300,000 and tell everyone it's 100,000 also bring extra tank fuel and MREs you might be there longer than a week". Carrying out Putin's orders you knew would fail, is just as fatal as telling him "no". Feeding Putin misinformation about a war that was 100% open to the public to watch, where that misinformation becomes abundantly clear, is asking for your last request to be a fine cigar you enjoy for the rest of your half-life.

There's insane, but then there's suicide.

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Oh...yeah, that answers the question right there, doesn't it? Everyone gets to say "this wasn't my fault, I wasn't in charge". I wonder if that makes a good tombstone?

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With as bad as morale is, and with how many of Russia's civilians oppose the war, I'm moderately sure I could get useful intel from Russia. Obviously US Intel can do a much better job than a math teacher whose high school Facebook group just so happens to have a Russian transfer student who's active and someone else who happens to be a state dept paper pusher behind a former Soviet bloc desk.

The general is told by his Colonels that they each have 100k men, 1000 tanks and full supplies for all of it (numbers obv made up).

The Colonel knows its more like 80k men, 800 tanks and supplies but he doesn't want to make Putin angry by saying his battalion isn't at full strength.

The Majors know that of those 80k men only 50k are combat ready, 400 tanks need maintenance and he sold 20% of the supplies on the black market to make money for himself but he can't tell the Colonel that or he would risk losing his job.

The Captains know that of those 50k combat ready 20% are to fat, the 400 tanks that don't need maintenance kinda do need maintenance and those 80% supplies are more like 50% because he wanted some money for himself as well but he can't tell the Major that or he would risk losing his job.

The lieutenants know that half of the 40k ready and fit troops are young kids that will shit themselves in an actual fight, none of the tanks would pass certification, and last months fuel supply was sold to pay for his cousins wedding but he can't tell the Captain that or he would risk losing his job

That is how you get an incompetent army. corruption and people trying to cover their own ass at every single layer of organisation. And at some point it becomes easier to just keep lying and hope it magically works out rather then fess up you have been lying for the last several decades.

[Poopymonster]

Yeah, as opposed to giving and being slaughtered, starved or deported to work camps, while having your whole way of life turned upside down anyways?

Exactly. As long as the Ukrainians want to fight, give them all the weapons, supplies, whatever we can. We're not forcing them to do anything. They are choosing to fight the invader, for how long is their choice.

[Finlandia WOAT]

Exactly. As long as the Ukrainians want to fight, give them all the weapons, supplies, whatever we can. We're not forcing them to do anything. They are choosing to fight the invader, for how long is their choice.

Agree. This is a fight for the Ukrainian right to self-determination. It's why the "US/West is convincing Ukraine to fight and suffer!" is Russian propaganda, it assumes both that Ukraine has no capacity for self-determination, and it assumes that Ukraine's defeat is inevitable.

[Mihalik]

Sip

What I find amusing tho is when professional kleptocrats are surprised that they aren't the only ones skimming off the top.

-Like, I know I've been stealing, I know my underlings have been stealing...but I'm surprised that my underlings underlings have also been in fact....stealing.

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Agree. This is a fight for the Ukrainian right to self-determination. It's why the "US/West is convincing Ukraine to fight and suffer!" is Russian propaganda, it assumes both that Ukraine has no capacity for self-determination, and it assumes that Ukraine's defeat is inevitable.

A lot of right wingers and left wingers have found an odd common ground on them backing Russia. But their arguments are usually just basically

1. Frame this as a US-Russia conflict. Never ever mention Ukraine, their wants, needs, desires, rights or objectives.
2. Victim blame Ukraine.
3. OK...but what about when the US nuked Japan?

[Draco-Onis]

SNIP.

None of your hypotheticals matter Zelensky is no fool, he wants a deal with security guarantees involving the international community or a coalition with other countries for protection. Russia's demands are being lowered so are Zelensky's that's usually how these things go until they find something they can agree with.

[Poopymonster]

If a friend or family member visits from the middle/south US way up here in (checks local sources) 38F weather and doesn't bring their jacket, they'll likely feel foolish and complain, but they'll be okay. Whoops. If they come for a week to go hiking, skiing or fishing without winter clothes, even in March, eventually they'll be outside below freezing. That's no longer "whoops" and balls-deep into "what was I thinking?" We've seen plenty of reports that Putin thought it'd be over weeks ago, this is just more of that.

It's the same temperature here as Kyiv, incidentally.

Mid 2000s, a friend of mine fly up to visit me for New Years Eve. From Brazil. I warned her to get heavy coat, gloves, scarf, boots, since she's flying to Michigan. Those things were kinda rare there. She had most of it, but after a few steps outside Detroit Metro Airport, she stopped. I said I'd bring the car around, she can go back inside where it's warmer. She left the heavier stuff she bought while visiting since "I'm not going to need this shit again. Never coming back here. Too fucking cold."

[Mihalik]

None of your hypotheticals matter Zelensky is no fool, he wants a deal with security guarantees involving the international community or a coalition with other countries for protection. Russia's demands are being lowered so are Zelensky's that's usually how these things go until they find something they can agree with.

There are nevertheless he simply cannot agree too.

1. Demilitarization is an absolute no go. There's no guarantee Russia could ever give to the Ukrainians that it won't invade again. They've shat on every single agreement that they have made so far. Russia's promises aren't worth the paper they are written on. They only way Russia could ever guarantee it won't invade Ukraine again would be for it to accept Ukraine joining NATO. Then Russia could possibly add such stipulations as -While a NATO member Ukraine shouldn't hold NATO exercises on its soil, shouldn't allow missile defense systems to be placed on its soil or allow the placement of nuclear weapons on its soil, simultaneously Ukraine would downsize and limit the size of its military. That could possibly work as a guarantee, otherwise demilitarization is a non starter.

2. Zelensky can likely give away Crimea and maybe parts of the Donbass, but he cannot give away cities like Kharkiv which bled themselves dry for this.

[Ettan]

So basically nothing, that's what I thought.

Here's a shocker for you - sanctions will also be on negotiations table - that's the only real leverage Ukraine has.

No.

I do not see sanctions going away. No matter the outcome/development.
They are not in place as a year long or "until the conflict is over", their timeline I see more on the scope of 20-30 years.
Its only ramping up further, with an eventual full skism forming. If I was a blyatman I would seek to get out while I could, even if this meant to leave everything and starting all over again, as I doubt that oppurtunity will be present for much longer.

Energy has not yet been touched for obvious dependency reasons, but the process of decoupling there has already begun.
The EU will look elsewhere for its energy needs.
In ~2-3 years, or even befoure that, their dependency will be gone; filled with mix of increased north sea & african gas (MEG expansion) pipeline to ME, & LNG shipping pluss a hessitant return to nuclear.

Now these sanctions, their goal is not regime change in russia or to serve as a slap in the face.
The aim is to cripple russia, it is economic war.
In the unprobable event that there was regime change in rus; Putin would only be replaced with another autocrat. So no change.
But with the russian mentality (700 years of autocracy and almost 9 years of almost democracy) I dont think one could get there befoure the russians starve, and that isnt in the cards.

For the ukranian side, I would not advice diplomacy, bar peacemeal strategic ceasefires.
With recent events there are no guarantees russia now can give to ukraniane. Their word means nothing, the best they can provide are convenient lies.

Effects I see going forward;

Ru markets; will remain decimated, and will only get progressivly worse.

European markets; with its "relativly" close ties to russia will suffer also, more so in the east. Eastern european countries & Turkey had more economic ties to rus than the rest of europe, russia was the regional production hub. That will change now.

But this is not long term damage, their markets will shift and consolidate to the eu.
So over the long term I would actually view it as a boon to europe, influx of goods & workers from eastern europe and migrating ukrainians.
And with strong economic development in eastern europe and turkey; areas previously held back by the regional dominance of russia. A severance from russia would benefit their development greatly. Having investment pour into your country is something quite diffrent than; you ship cheap labour to slave away in russian factories.
As a whole europe will come out strengthened politically, economically and militarily.

Chinese markets; As they continue a line of neutrality will remain unaffected. Still its not like they will let a good disaster go to waste, they will exploit weakness.
Dont think they will go so far as to press any of their claims, but they could (outer manchuria).

US markets; will barely be touched, it has never been closely linked to the russian economy; only global oil price spikes will affect it alittle.
And here the Us always have plenty of options, inceasing own reg production / boosting fracking* ect.

*Not that its very likely for it to boost fracking alot; even with envirnomental considerations aside; opec wont be very happy about this so its not probable.
(It is just so easily scaled up and remains profitable at lows where other production methods do not).
And opec is a vital ally.
So its more likely then they work something out with opec, and have them fill the void; while the us secures its own energy needs.

But it remains a tool they have available, if it really wanted to the us could bring global oil prices under 40 and f every exporter.

[PhaelixWW]

Zelensky can likely give away Crimea and maybe parts of the Donbass, but he cannot give away cities like Kharkiv which bled themselves dry for this.

I'm guessing Putin is far more interested in keeping the south area (Kherson, Melitopol, and Mariupol) rather than Kharkiv, anyway.

But taking Kharkiv and especially if he were able to "take" Kyiv, it would enable him to demand more during later negotiations.

[Gaidax]

No.

I do not see sanctions going away. No matter the outcome/development.

It does not matter what you see.

The reality is simple, first there will be armistice. Then there will be actual negotiations and negotiations will be among other things withdrawal from Mariupol, Nuclear Power Plants and status of Donbas "republics".

If Ukraine wants the "republics" back as Ukraine, they will have to make a few calls here and there and trade that off for sanctions relief and West will oblige. It's pretty simple.

Then few years down the road Russia will cut it's own "Iran deal" with the West to get rid of much the rest. Probably led by some another president then who will try his best to put biggest smile he can, before going back to usual shit a decade later.

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And yes, any sort of agreement will lead to another arms race and absolutely Russia may as well learn the lessons, lick its wounds a bit and retry again few years down. That also is an option.

But it will also give Ukraine a few years of reprieve and time to reinforce and beef up the army with Western equipment.

[Mihalik]

I'm guessing Putin is far more interested in keeping the south area (Kherson, Melitopol, and Mariupol) rather than Kharkiv, anyway.

But taking Kharkiv and especially if he were able to "take" Kyiv, it would enable him to demand more during later negotiations.

Those are no go too really.

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It does not matter what you see.

The reality is simple, first there will be armistice. Then there will be actual negotiations and negotiations will be among other things withdrawal from Mariupol, Nuclear Power Plants and status of Donbas "republics".

If Ukraine wants the "republics" back as Ukraine, they will have to make a few calls here and there and trade that off for sanctions relief and West will oblige. It's pretty simple.

Then few years down the road Russia will cut it's own "Iran deal" with the West to get rid of much the rest. Probably led by some another president then who will try his best to put biggest smile he can, before going back to usual shit a decade later.

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And yes, any sort of agreement will lead to another arms race and absolutely Russia may as well learn the lessons, lick its wounds a bit and retry again few years down. That also is an option.

But it will also give Ukraine a few years of reprieve and time to reinforce and beef up the army with Western equipment.

Sorry to burst your fantasy bubble, but those sanctions are here to stay. The west has long been lacking a strategic enemy it could rally against.

Russia literally served itself up on a silver platter. Unlike China, they are economically irrelevant. It's easy to play hardball with Russia, it's easy to score political points, to form a consensus, to be a hardliner etc. It doesn't cost much, and it will cost even less in a year or two.

But keep deluding yourself.

[PhaelixWW]

Those are no go too really.

If the war were to end today, certainly. Not a definite "no go" the longer the war goes on, if Russia keeps making inroads, though still unlikely.


Also... per The Guardian per Reuters:

Russia will only use nuclear weapons if its very existence were threatened, Russian state-owned news agency has cited Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov as saying.

A certain false prophet here is probably fuming over this.

[zealo]

Then few years down the road Russia will cut it's own "Iran deal" with the West to get rid of much the rest. Probably led by some another president then who will try his best to put biggest smile he can, before going back to usual shit a decade later.

Saying a predication like that with a straight face is comical when there's a large array of countries inside the EU who all have their very own experiences with Russian imperialism and oppression.

It could happen, but you might want to lower your certainty that it will just a tad. There's not an insignificant amount who all have their own interests in seeing Rusia stay down if it gets on hard times.