Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

Zelensky can likely give away Crimea and maybe parts of the Donbass, but he cannot give away cities like Kharkiv which bled themselves dry for this.

I'm guessing Putin is far more interested in keeping the south area (Kherson, Melitopol, and Mariupol) rather than Kharkiv, anyway.

But taking Kharkiv and especially if he were able to "take" Kyiv, it would enable him to demand more during later negotiations.

[Gaidax]

No.

I do not see sanctions going away. No matter the outcome/development.

It does not matter what you see.

The reality is simple, first there will be armistice. Then there will be actual negotiations and negotiations will be among other things withdrawal from Mariupol, Nuclear Power Plants and status of Donbas "republics".

If Ukraine wants the "republics" back as Ukraine, they will have to make a few calls here and there and trade that off for sanctions relief and West will oblige. It's pretty simple.

Then few years down the road Russia will cut it's own "Iran deal" with the West to get rid of much the rest. Probably led by some another president then who will try his best to put biggest smile he can, before going back to usual shit a decade later.

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And yes, any sort of agreement will lead to another arms race and absolutely Russia may as well learn the lessons, lick its wounds a bit and retry again few years down. That also is an option.

But it will also give Ukraine a few years of reprieve and time to reinforce and beef up the army with Western equipment.

[Mihalik]

I'm guessing Putin is far more interested in keeping the south area (Kherson, Melitopol, and Mariupol) rather than Kharkiv, anyway.

But taking Kharkiv and especially if he were able to "take" Kyiv, it would enable him to demand more during later negotiations.

Those are no go too really.

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It does not matter what you see.

The reality is simple, first there will be armistice. Then there will be actual negotiations and negotiations will be among other things withdrawal from Mariupol, Nuclear Power Plants and status of Donbas "republics".

If Ukraine wants the "republics" back as Ukraine, they will have to make a few calls here and there and trade that off for sanctions relief and West will oblige. It's pretty simple.

Then few years down the road Russia will cut it's own "Iran deal" with the West to get rid of much the rest. Probably led by some another president then who will try his best to put biggest smile he can, before going back to usual shit a decade later.

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And yes, any sort of agreement will lead to another arms race and absolutely Russia may as well learn the lessons, lick its wounds a bit and retry again few years down. That also is an option.

But it will also give Ukraine a few years of reprieve and time to reinforce and beef up the army with Western equipment.

Sorry to burst your fantasy bubble, but those sanctions are here to stay. The west has long been lacking a strategic enemy it could rally against.

Russia literally served itself up on a silver platter. Unlike China, they are economically irrelevant. It's easy to play hardball with Russia, it's easy to score political points, to form a consensus, to be a hardliner etc. It doesn't cost much, and it will cost even less in a year or two.

But keep deluding yourself.

[PhaelixWW]

Those are no go too really.

If the war were to end today, certainly. Not a definite "no go" the longer the war goes on, if Russia keeps making inroads, though still unlikely.


Also... per The Guardian per Reuters:

Russia will only use nuclear weapons if its very existence were threatened, Russian state-owned news agency has cited Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov as saying.

A certain false prophet here is probably fuming over this.

[zealo]

Then few years down the road Russia will cut it's own "Iran deal" with the West to get rid of much the rest. Probably led by some another president then who will try his best to put biggest smile he can, before going back to usual shit a decade later.

Saying a predication like that with a straight face is comical when there's a large array of countries inside the EU who all have their very own experiences with Russian imperialism and oppression.

It could happen, but you might want to lower your certainty that it will just a tad. There's not an insignificant amount who all have their own interests in seeing Rusia stay down if it gets on hard times.

[Gaidax]

Saying a predication like that with a straight face is comical when there's a large array of countries inside the EU who all have their very own experiences with Russian imperialism and oppression.

It could happen, but you might want to lower your certainty that it will just a tad. There's not an insignificant amount who all have their own interests in seeing Rusia stay down if it gets on hard times.

That was what... 10 years ago?

Short memory there buddy.

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In before: nuh huh - totes gonna be different it ain't 1990... 2003... 2010... ???

[zealo]

[IMG]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Lavrov_and_Clinton_reset_relations-1_%28cropped%29.jpg[IMG]

That was what... 10 years ago?

Short memory there buddy.

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In before: nuh huh - totes gonna be different it ain't 1990... 2003... 2010... ???

Yes, just over 10 years ago or there about.

You might want to remind the class what Russia embarked on after that from around about 2014, cause it's actually important to why the point you're trying to make isn't as certain as you seem to think it is.

[Gaidax]

Yes, just over 10 years ago or there about.

You might want to remind the class what Russia embarked on after that from around about 2014, cause it's actually important to why the point you're trying to make isn't as certain as you seem to think it is.

Remind me please, what Russia did in 2008 that warranted this "reset" to begin with.

You are so funny, you really think anyone gives a damn what XYZ did.

The only thing that matters is merit and interests. In a few years from US and Co. will need Russia onboard to bomb some another dustball and it will be "reset" all over again.

I can tell you here and there - all it will take for next reset to initiate is Putin to go, because he's tainted. Then there will be some dancing around various points for a few years, until another reset agreement is signed as usual. That'd make it like what... 3rd one? Every 10-ish years on the clock. Comedy.

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And you know what's the kicker? Russia didn't even return South Ossetia to Georgia, despite this "reset". How's about them apples?

[Vankrys]

No.

I do not see sanctions going away. No matter the outcome/development.
They are not in place as a year long or "until the conflict is over", their timeline I see more on the scope of 20-30 years.

Wouldn't a starved out, asphyxiated Russia become even more aggressive? Isn't that what happened to 1941 blockaded Japan that lead to Pearl Harbor attack?

[PhaelixWW]

Remind me please, what Russia did in 2008 that warranted this "reset" to begin with.

All of which is why "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me" applies here.

Also, what were sanctions like in 2008 vs. now?

Somehow, I don't think Russia's going to be given the benefit of the doubt as much as they were in 2009.


...


That being said, all bets are fucking off if Trump somehow crawls his way back into the White House. I don't see any other US President, even another GoP one, doing the same thing, though.

[Finlandia WOAT]

None of your hypotheticals matter Zelensky is no fool, he wants a deal with security guarantees involving the international community or a coalition with other countries for protection. Russia's demands are being lowered so are Zelensky's that's usually how these things go until they find something they can agree with.

Where? From what I can tell, the Kremlin's demands are the same as they as at the beginning of the invasion: Crimea/Donbass, no NATO/"neutrality" (1), Russian language protection (this one is reasonable, actually), "de-militarization" and "de-nazification". The only thing they have moved off of is de facto acceding that Zelenskyy gets to stay, which I believe was only a de facto demand anyway.

Also for the record, only two of my 4 points had to do with the current negotiations.

1: it's not clear whether the Kremlin is pursuing no NATO (but individual security agreements are fine) or "neutrality" as no security guarantees and trade agreements that are not Kremlin approved. As you say, Zelenskyy would be a fool to accept that, the only reason is if the situation is for more dire than what has been reported for Ukraine (very possible).

[Rasulis]

J.P. Morgan at the behest of US Central Bank just let another $66 million Russian bond payment go through. It looks like the US still want to provide an out for Russia.

[Gaidax]

All of which is why "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me" applies here.

Also, what were sanctions like in 2008 vs. now?

Somehow, I don't think Russia's going to be given the benefit of the doubt as much as they were in 2009.

Don't be naïve, politics do not care about proverbs.

In the end nobody really wants Cold War 2.0, or splitting the world into two or simply having a rogue permanent security council member. It's just the reality of it - so yes, West will reset as many times as necessary, because ultimately it is the right thing to do for the good of the many at expense of the good of the few.

That's how things work.

[Poopymonster]

Wouldn't a starved out, asphyxiated Russia become even more aggressive? Isn't that what happened to 1941 blockaded Japan that lead to Pearl Harbor attack?

If they do get more aggressive, who's closer to take it out on, distant mythical nebulous boogeymen "Politicians in The West" or something a bit more...local?

[Iphie]

J.P. Morgan at the behest of US Central Bank just let another $66 million Russian bond payment go through. It looks like the US still want to provide an out for Russia.

Of course, as long as there IS an out Russia can take it. Once they are really backed into a corner without an out it gets hairy. Also, money paid to us is money not in Russia's hands.

[Draco-Onis]

Sorry to burst your fantasy bubble, but those sanctions are here to stay. The west has long been lacking a strategic enemy it could rally against.

Russia literally served itself up on a silver platter. Unlike China, they are economically irrelevant. It's easy to play hardball with Russia, it's easy to score political points, to form a consensus, to be a hardliner etc. It doesn't cost much, and it will cost even less in a year or two.

But keep deluding yourself.

Some of the sanctions will stay but not all because whether you like it or not Russia has natural resources that the world needs that cannot be conjured up out of nowhere. The global impact is already being felt in places as many posters have pointed they don't "care" about. Even if the neo liberal warhawks giant boners blinds them to that fact the EU is certainly not going to stay for that ride.

[Rasulis]

Of course, as long as there IS an out Russia can take it. Once they are really backed into a corner without an out it gets hairy. Also, money paid to us is money not in Russia's hands.

It shows the gross level of corruption in Russia. The CBR is sweating over 66 million dollar payment, and Putin has a yacht worth upward of 700 million dollar sitting in a port in Italy.

[Draco-Onis]

It shows the gross level of corruption in Russia. The CBR is sweating over 66 million dollar payment, and Putin has a yacht worth upward of 700 million dollar sitting in a port in Italy.

The reason they cannot pay is because they can't liquidate or use assets frozen overseas. It's not like they can tell the investors to take a used yacht as payment.

[Fugus]

Not sure if others have reported this but...

"Journalist reportedly kidnapped and tortured by Russian troops in Ukraine"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...cid=uxbndlbing

[YUPPIE]

Not sure if others have reported this but...

"Journalist reportedly kidnapped and tortured by Russian troops in Ukraine"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...cid=uxbndlbing

that's because that's EVERY DAY for Putin. He tortures or at least kills someone every day. He is evil beyond measure.