Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gaidax]

People that skirt around the rather abject truth of "Russia is absolutely in the wrong here" are pretty suspect of being "pro-Russia."

"Give the Russians what they want. You know, for the Ukrainian's safety" isn't much better. It's real "nice place you got here, shame if something happened to it" energy.

Nobody he is pro-Russian aside from Shalker and some other poster from the other day that copy pasted RT news.

So it happens, that I was born Soviet Union, which became Ukraine, in Odessa in fact - I grew up there and I did not grow up on some infantile fantasies about the world or superhero movies. I know full well what Russia is and what Ukraine is. So my perspective is different.

I also happen to know both Ukrainian and Russian and I can read both source material natively, I don't need Google translate or narrator to understand what Zelensky says.

I do not subscribe to overly rosy views of some posters here, simply because history and actual reality on the ground is telling a very different story. Some people here live in outright fantasy world, but when you used to actually live next to Russia - you can't afford slurping that hopium of West rushing to the rescue.

Or Russia somehow collapsing from withing because West put some partial sanctions on it. Or Ukrainian army (which is just as shit and corrupt as Russian one) having snowball's chance in hell of actually beating back Russians when it comes to actual strategic view of the war - they could not even do it to these meme republics for years, let alone Crimea.

So yes, me splashing cold water on some overly optimistic interpretations of catastrophe going on there, does not mean I am some Kremlin's agent. Neither does me explaining time and time again that the only way to stop this war would be via negotiations with Russia where Ukrainians will be forced to make concessions.

Yes, Russia is getting fucked in various ways, but the pickle is that Ukraine is getting fucked much harder. The remaining to be seen projections how it's going to get better for Ukraine some day does not exactly help them right now, when their cities get dusted and their refugees flee the country in millions.

Is Russia bad in the wrong terrorist state led by a reincarnation of Hitler? Yes. But the reality is that for now Ukraine will have to make deal with it if it wants killings and destruction to stop. Then maybe half a decade down the road things will change and be renegotiated.

[Easo]

@Rasulis - something I see in Runet repeatedly commented about is that CNC machines, "work tables" and so on are largely foreign from the classic factory tooling manufacturers, like Japan and Germany. So while Russia claims a lot of achievements in domestic production and actually has done a huge work with their so called "import replacement" program started in 2014 (they did predict at least something as you can see) tooling itself remains a huge issue. No more tech support, repairs and replacements. Black market, substandard tools, etc. Oh you make the most advanced composite airplane wings in the world (MC-21)? Well, tooling is Japanese (IIRC), so see you in few years or sooner when the machine fails and can't be repaired.
I don't even wanna guess what will it take to domesticate that.

Because he doesn't, for some unknown reason, realize just how incredibly fucking stupid it makes people sound when they attempt to call you pro-Russian?

Well, the name of the game is black or white here...

It sounds like Izyum may not have been lost after all given repeated reports from western Intel that the Ukrainians are still defending it.

Not exactly. Izym is lost, but there is small southern part behind the river, on which Ukraine held for at least few days. The information right now is not clear, they might still be there. I have a feeling that the lack of troops on both sides are playing a major role in this, large sectors are barely controlled, taken and then retaken, because no one has full overview on where exactly the enemy is, specifically, where smaller units are.

to avoid the orcs when we write letters to the UN saying how bad it is when russia invades you.

I am highly confused.

[Ettan]

Wouldn't a starved out, asphyxiated Russia become even more aggressive? Isn't that what happened to 1941 blockaded Japan that lead to Pearl Harbor attack?

Well it wont starve, not physically atleast. Rus is a net wheat exporter. But it will starve technologically and its growth potential will be anihilated.
It may cause some desperation and could very reasonably lead them to being more heavy handed.
Would it manifest as an attack outward on nato? no. That would be exeedingly foolish.
You attack from a position of strength, not one of weakness.
That was not really a possibility, even befoure the russians got tied up in ukraine. Hence the invasion, to stop Ukraine from eluding their clutches.
Easy to imagine somone desperate would lash out in anger, quite different when that desperate person has a gun cocked at their head.

Rather their frustations will be directed innwards.
Forceful aquisition of foreign assests (assets most of these companies have long since written off as dead).
Stronger crackdown on protestors, dissenters/ "wrongthink", witchhunts on traitors and 5th columnists (russians with familial ties to ukraine or the west).
That and blocking foreign "propaganda".
Like we wont have to shut down many of the social media platforms/apps and the like; the russian admin will do that work for us.
As it is more harmful for the russian regime, that the population could get glipses of what is happening; than the crap their popaganda apparatus can manage to spew out. Better have them all hooked up to state controlled tv.
And I think very soon, also blocking russian emigrasion.

Just today that poor opposition leader had a further 9 years of fake sentencing passed on him.

Bit dated & quite long, but heres a good insight into the psyche of russian madness



<sub>Imp Japans misscalculation was abit different, but on similar lines. (both misscalculated the oppositions will to fight).

Prelude began in 37/38 with japans war with china, leading to trade restrictions and culminating with the us cutting off oil and freezing Jpn assets in 41 due to following further imperial expansion (manchuria/thailand/french indonesia/ british malay ect).
(So a tad bit agressive pre sanctions one could say).
Imp Jap got abit miffed; sentiment along the lines of; the western powers had previously been allowed to flex imperial muscles, so why couldnt they?
And going by historical precident they where quite right at that honestly, western powers had played with that region as they wished. Many of their later aquisitions where exactly that; western colonial remnants.

Then proceeded with a preemptive attack, one not aimed at war with the us, but to scare the us away from war.
It essentially flexed its naval might, as Jpn had dominance of the seas at the time.
They knew even when planning their attack, jpn would not win a prolonged war with usa, yet didnt think the us had the resolve for one.

But rather than having the effect of scaring them away from medeling in their affairs; it backfiered and their attack woke a giant.</sub>

[PhaelixWW]

People that skirt around the rather abject truth of "Russia is absolutely in the wrong here" are pretty suspect of being "pro-Russia."

I don't really see that happening, though. Certainly not with the kind of frequency with which I see the "pro-Russia" accusation lobbed.

There are only, maybe, three posters that I see as "pro-Russian", and they're obvious about it.

[Draco-Onis]

Are you supposing that Russia doesn't deserve to be hurt, here?

Former soviet states don't possess the economic or military power to adequately redress Russia on anything by themselves. The EU and the United States, however? Absolutely, and obviously.

"This is really just between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine should know when they've lost, and it's wrong for the world to but into their business" is a really weird take when Russia was butting into Ukraine's business by... you know, invading them.

And targeting civilian areas with munitions.

And blowing up hospitals.

And kidnapping people.

Okay since I didn't say any of this nor imply it if you were following this conversation, I am assuming you are just using me to get something off your chest.

[YUPPIE]

I think people fail to see these sanctions Joe Biden and his allies are imposing on Russia isn't just affecting their ability to trade, but crippling their war machine. They will not be able to maintain their needs if this keeps up. It's a perfect way of non-direct confrontation sabotage.

And that's where Putin may declare war or resort to WMDs on Ukraine when the war machine eventually falls apart.

[Gaidax]

I think people fail to see these sanctions Joe Biden and his allies are imposing on Russia isn't just affecting their ability to trade, but crippling their war machine. They will not be able to maintain their needs if this keeps up. It's a perfect way of non-direct confrontation sabotage.

And that's where Putin may declare war or resort to WMDs on Ukraine when the war machine eventually falls apart.

Dang, you're almost salivating at prospect of WW3 or nukes flying.

Guess different people have different fetishes.

Don't you worry there won't be any WW3 or nukes anytime soon... or maybe do worry there won't be any, in your case.

[Elenos]

People that skirt around the rather abject truth of "Russia is absolutely in the wrong here" are pretty suspect of being "pro-Russia."

"Give the Russians what they want. You know, for the Ukrainian's safety" isn't much better. It's real "nice place you got here, shame if something happened to it" energy.

I am reminded of a particular quote from the video game Spec Ops: The Line, a horror game wearing the guise of a modern military shooter, it goes like this:

"When the truth is undeniable, you create your own." It's something stated at the very end of the game when the protagonist realizes that all the he had done throughout the story was unleash a level of untold slaughter he then blamed on someone else, who had long been dead, simply because he could not accept what he had done.

Just like that character people here on this forum and many other places cannot accept the truth, but I'll lay it down as simply and clearly as I can.

The following is the undeniable truth over the last few weeks:

- The Russian invasion has created one of the largest refugee crisis in a century. In the span of a few weeks we have 1/10th of Ukraine's entire pre-war population being externally displaced, beyond the large numbers also internally displaced. In total we are talking of displacement of ONE QUARTER of Ukraine's entire population, and we barely at the 4 week threshold. Give it a few months and we'll be talking about a refugee crisis on the level of WORLD WAR ONE, if not being second only to WW2, the two most devastating conflicts in all of human history.

- Continued fighting for a few more months will see untold devastation being visited on Ukrainian population centers. The people in Mariupol have been reduced to drinking puddle water and that fate in the near future likely awaits places like Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Chernihiv, Sumy and others. A fate similar to places like Aleppo, Homs, Gronzy.

- The only solution to prevent such a massive humanitarian catastrophe is a negotiated solution to the war. NATO will not launch a military intervention as Western Leaders have made clear many times over and Ukrainian army cannot under any circumstance prevent this level suffering, even under the alternate universe scenario where they might defeat the Russian military and drive them out of Ukraine, Ukraine would still be utterly devasted in enormous parts of the East and South.

- The only likely way to achieve a ceasefire is compromise, and yes that means Russia gets Crimea, likely Donbass as well along with Ukraine not entering NATO. Whatever the terms, it is imperative to reach a negotiated solution to prevent untold suffering even if it means making a deal with the devil Putin.

So for the keyboard warriors sitting comfortably at their chairs in countries thousands of miles away from Ukraine accusing others of being pro-Russians because unlike in your fantasy world some of us actually know what's going to happen, how it's going to happen and what the consequences will be? There are not enough words to condemn you.

Finally to answer one particular question: Is there going to be a ceasefire? No, I do not think there will be one, not given the current political stances of both Ukraine and Russia.

But by all means cheer how Russian generals are killed, and Russia sanctioned and bleeding money. It won't change squat for Ukraine.

[YUPPIE]

Dang, you're almost salivating at prospect of WW3 or nukes flying.

Guess different people have different fetishes.

Don't you worry there won't be any WW3 or nukes anytime soon... or maybe do worry there won't be any, in your case.

let's be REALISTIC here with the reality of sanctions:

No money = almost no support apart from fringe terror networks. No ability to maintain infrastructure, rapidly declining morale, no food, eventually no functioning guns, against a force constantly supplied in the best of military equipment by almost the entire world?

The Russian war machine is eventually going to crumble to dust. And then what will Putin have left when his troops decide to retreat or desert from impossible odds? His arsenal of nukes and chemical weapons on reserve in a last bid to turn the tides.

[Fugus]

I think people fail to see these sanctions Joe Biden and his allies are imposing on Russia isn't just affecting their ability to trade, but crippling their war machine. They will not be able to maintain their needs if this keeps up. It's a perfect way of non-direct confrontation sabotage.

And that's where Putin may declare war or resort to WMDs on Ukraine when the war machine eventually falls apart.

You repeating this insanity doesn't change the math behind it...... If Russian soldiers want to kill their own families following such suicidal orders, then they can watch Russia be a blighted memory in the worlds history.

So, you repeating this crap won't change the fact its crap and Putin will lose that exchange as well.

[YUPPIE]

You repeating this insanity doesn't change the math behind it...... If Russian soldiers want to kill their own families following such suicidal orders, then they can watch Russia be a blighted memory in the worlds history.

So, you repeating this crap won't change the fact its crap and Putin will lose that exchange as well.

not the nukes. I just said he has those, at least. But Zelenksy and many others believe Putin will inevitably deploy chemical WMDs on Ukraine.

Inevitable with how he's losing and the speculative odds.

[Fugus]

not the nukes. I just said he has those, at least. But Zelenksy and many others believe Putin will inevitably deploy chemical WMDs on Ukraine.

Inevitable with how he's losing and the speculative odds.

And once he starts committing those level of war crimes that endangers other nations as the winds change, how do you think the world will respond when Russia starts endangering other nations like that?

Putin has put themselves in a lose/lose situation at this point, the question becomes how much they lose in the long run.

[PC2]

let's be REALISTIC here with the reality of sanctions:

No money, almost no support apart from fringe terror networks. No ability to maintain infrastructure, no food, eventually no functioning guns, against a force constantly supplied in the best of military equipment by almost the entire world?

The Russian war machine is eventually going to crumble to dust. And then what will Putin have left when his troops decide to retreat or desert from impossible odds? His arsenal of nukes and chemical weapons on reserve in a last bid to turn the tides.

That's too dramatic and not very realistic though. Russia isn't a world super power but they still have enough resources and know-how to make it through this war without collapse. People and countries are pretty adaptable and resourceful when they need to be so you should not just assume they will crumble to dust anytime soon.

[downnola]

I am reminded of a particular quote from the video game Spec Ops: The Line, a horror game wearing the guise of a modern military shooter, it goes like this:

"When the truth is undeniable, you create your own." It's something stated at the very end of the game when the protagonist realizes that all the he had done throughout the story was unleash a level of untold slaughter he then blamed on someone else, who had long been dead, simply because he could not accept what he had done.

Just like that character people here on this forum and many other places cannot accept the truth, but I'll lay it down as simply and clearly as I can.

The following is the undeniable truth over the last few weeks:

- The Russian invasion has created one of the largest refugee crisis in a century. In the span of a few weeks we have 1/10th of Ukraine's entire pre-war population being externally displaced, beyond the large numbers also internally displaced. In total we are talking of displacement of ONE QUARTER of Ukraine's entire population, and we barely at the 4 week threshold. Give it a few months and we'll be talking about a refugee crisis on the level of WORLD WAR ONE, if not being second only to WW2, the two most devastating conflicts in all of human history.

- Continued fighting for a few more months will see untold devastation being visited on Ukrainian population centers. The people in Mariupol have been reduced to drinking puddle water and that fate in the near future likely awaits places like Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Chernihiv, Sumy and others. A fate similar to places like Aleppo, Homs, Gronzy.

- The only solution to prevent such a massive humanitarian catastrophe is a negotiated solution to the war. NATO will not launch a military intervention as Western Leaders have made clear many times over and Ukrainian army cannot under any circumstance prevent this level suffering, even under the alternate universe scenario where they might defeat the Russian military and drive them out of Ukraine, Ukraine would still be utterly devasted in enormous parts of the East and South.

- The only likely way to achieve a ceasefire is compromise, and yes that means Russia gets Crimea, likely Donbass as well along with Ukraine not entering NATO. Whatever the terms, it is imperative to reach a negotiated solution to prevent untold suffering even if it means making a deal with the devil Putin.

So for the keyboard warriors sitting comfortably at their chairs in countries thousands of miles away from Ukraine accusing others of being pro-Russians because unlike in your fantasy world some of us actually know what's going to happen, how it's going to happen and what the consequences will be? There are not enough words to condemn you.

Finally to answer one particular question: Is there going to be a ceasefire? No, I do not think there will be one, not given the current political stances of both Ukraine and Russia.

But by all means cheer how Russian generals are killed, and Russia sanctioned and bleeding money. It won't change squat for Ukraine.

This is a whole lot of words just to say that Ukraine should make concessions of territory and disarmament to keep Russia from committing more war crimes. I don't see Ukrainians willing to make these concessions when Russia is thoroughly embarrassing itself with a half-assed invasion. That's not to say there haven't been attempts on Ukraine's part to negotiate a ceasefire and end the conflict, but it's pretty tough to negotiate in good faith when a ceasefire is agreed upon and Russia continues shelling during the talks, which they also did in Syria.

Even if Ukraine took your advice and went down the road of appeasement, there's no guarantee Russia wouldn't come up with a new excuse to invade again a few years down the road. Any agreement they could draw up now wouldn't be worth the paper it was written on because their goal is regional influence over Ukraine, which they won't get until they install a friendly government. Considering the Russian army destroyed any goodwill Eastern Ukrainians had towards Russia with the death and destruction it's causing on civilian populations, I don't see a regime change lasting. This is obviously a misjudgment on Putin's part and there's no reason to give him anything. If anyone in Ukraine thought otherwise they would have surrendered by now.

[Elegiac]

Whatever the terms, it is imperative to reach a negotiated solution to prevent untold suffering even if it means making a deal with the devil Putin.

Yep, we get it. Anything in the name of peace for our time.

[Gaidax]

This is a whole lot of words just to say that Ukraine should make concessions of territory and disarmament to keep Russia from committing more war crimes.

The conclusion should be the obvious for anyone who gives it even a moment of thought.

It's really the point I'm trying to get through. For the costs Russia pays for this bullshit, Ukraine pays tenfold and in blood of citizens who had nothing to do with it.

The Western response, the sanctions, even the losses of Russian army is something that will take months, if not years to take effect. Ukraine does not have months or years - they have catastrophe unfolding right now as we argue who is a covert Kremlin's spy over popcorn here.

And yes, despite the heroic resistance - the hard cold truth is that Ukrainian army is incapable of forcefully removing Russians in any sort of game-changing capacity. And West is not exactly rushing to the rescue here either, aside from basic supplies and basic weapons.

So yes, the negotiations are the only way for Ukraine here. Luckily their fierce resistance, coupled with Russian incompetence, gives them some ammo for negotiations - so it won't be a complete one-sided surrender. Still though, Russia has quite a few more chips on that table, because they are fully capable of turning more cities into rubble, as they have demonstrated, despite these convoy memes and jokes here just like what 2 weeks ago.

So yes, unfortunately, Ukraine will have to "compromise" and outright give in to some demands. Many of the demands are intentionally vague and are nothing more than pretext/excuse by Russia for invasion, so they can be equally met with declarative or cosmetic compromises, that are easy enough. Mariupol, Nuclear Power Plants, Donbas and Crimea are the key sticking points - and Russia is not going to just give them up out of goodness of their hearts and Ukraine can't do shit about it without prolonging paying of this very disproportionate price for every day passing.

- - - Updated - - -

Yep, we get it. Anything in the name of peace for our time.

I am sure you don't mind others to fight the good fight. You're pretty clear on that one.

[Corvus]

Russia probably didn't want this to fall into Ukrainian hands (and from them on to NATO) - a 1RL257 Krashuka-4 EW system, used to suppress AWACS radars radar and reconnaissance satellites. That is the most modern system they have and even damaged it will have a wealth of knowledge that can be used.

[Elegiac]

I am sure you don't mind others to fight the good fight. You're pretty clear on that one.

"You can't support Ukrainians' own displayed desire for resistance or oppose appeasing an aggressive autocracy unless you personally are willing to go and fight on the frontlines" is a limp dick ad hominem argument. Do better.

[Gaidax]

"You can't support Ukrainian's own displayed desire resistance or oppose appeasing an aggressive autocracy unless you personally are willing to go and fight on the frontlines" is a limp dick ad hominem argument. Do better.

It's not a game of Starcraft and Ukrainians are not zerglings.

It's simply a case of getting back to reality and having a bit of empathy to understand the level of disaster that fell on people there. It's not this Top Gear meme time "Oh no!.. Anyway..."

You just can't grasp what that CostinR poster wrote in his excellent response to this whole nonsense.

[Easo]

So once more Elegiac wants to fight to the last Ukrainian.

Russia probably didn't want this to fall into Ukrainian hands (and from them on to NATO) - a 1RL257 Krashuka-4 EW system, used to suppress AWACS radars radar and reconnaissance satellites. That is the most modern system they have and even damaged it will have a wealth of knowledge that can be used.

I doubt that thing can do more than local EW, it's truck mounted, thus should be limited by power generation. Somehow I don't think it can shut down AWACS operations in a theatre (and AWACS have limited sensor range, Ukraine is far too big for trying to see all of it from outside it's airzone). Satellite distractions, on the other hand, are probably very actual right now, considering NATO is feeding live info to Ukraine.

And - they would not have risked bringing it to a war if they were actually afraid/couldn't afford to loose it. Of course, I don't hink that generals are happy now xD, EW units should be few km behind the lines. Well, forest fighting and not enough troops means "lines" are a stretchable definition