Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Magnagarde]

But Navalny supports the annexation of Crimea. He isn't some democratic moral nice good guy that we tend to present him as in the west.

That said, Putin is waaaay worse.

Navalny is as relevant in Russian politics as yesterday's snow. He's completely insignificant and isn't a statesman a post-Putin Russia would look up to. The man nailed his scrotum to the Red Square; he's off the hook. The one who comes after will have to be twice the leading authority that Putin is to present-day Russia in order to keep the Russian Federation stable, which will be no easy feat. While Putin's moral compass completely broke on Ukraine, he was an incredibly intelligent statesman. The Russian people require a strong-willed statesman in order to work in unison, otherwise there's extreme political volatility. Sadly, people with such profiles tend to react poorly to sitting too long in a seat of power.

[Elegiac]

It's not a game of Starcraft and Ukrainians are not zerglings.

It's simply a case of getting back to reality and having a bit of empathy to understand the level of disaster that fell on people there. It's not this Top Gear meme time "Oh no!.. Anyway..."

Y'all do not have a monopoly of empathy here, habibi. The inverse argument of "it's easy to suggest appeasement when it's not you that has to live under Russian tyranny" is equally applicable.

[Easo]

Y'all do not have a monopoly of empathy here, habibi. The inverse argument of "it's easy to suggest appeasement when it's not you that has to live under Russian tyranny" is equally applicable.

Tell me - do you really think Ukraine will not have to concede anything in the peace deal and that they can keep doing this forever?
No, I don't care about Russia's economy potentially collapsing some unknown time in the future, regime change or the importance of having good moral standards, I am asking about the country of Ukraine now and in the immediate future of 2-4 weeks.

[Corvus]

I doubt that thing can do more than local EW, it's truck mounted, thus should be limited by power generation. Somehow I don't think it can shut down AWACS operations in a theatre (and AWACS have limited sensor range, Ukraine is far too big for trying to see all of it from outside it's airzone). Satellite distractions, on the other hand, are probably very actual right now, considering NATO is feeding live info to Ukraine.

And - they would not have risked bringing it to a war if they were actually afraid/couldn't afford to loose it. Of course, I don't hink that generals are happy now xD, EW units should be few km behind the lines. Well, forest fighting and not enough troops means "lines" are a stretchable definition

Russian claims are it can disrupt LEO satellites, disrupt drones and controlled missiles and shield objects on the ground from radar at ranges between 150-300 KM. So not a small area. And this one was covering the Kyiv area. Reportedly it caused a Bayraktar drone in Syria to crash by causing it to loose control.

This post goes further into its capabilities and the significance of capturing it.

[Kaleredar]

Tell me - do you really think Ukraine will not have to concede anything in the peace deal and that they can keep doing this forever?
No, I don't care about Russia's economy potentially collapsing some unknown time in the future, regime change or the importance of having good moral standards, I am asking about the country of Ukraine now and in the immediate future of 2-4 weeks.

And I’m sure people said the same things about the countries Hitler was invading back in the 1930s.

You’re just silly if you think Putin will stop with whatever Ukraine gives him. Was he satisfied with crimea when he did this exact same thing a few years ago? No? So why would he be satisfied now?

This is the point in time in which Russia is as UNprepared as they’ll ever be. Should Ukraine balk, in five years when putin just does this again he’ll have much more preparation, an economy much more divested from being harmed by sanctions, and probably months is not years more of propaganda spin of some justification for why Russia has to invade once more.


Ukraine seems willing to fight. You seem to be telling them not to. To Lay down their arms, give in, and put themselves up to the mercy of a country whose main notion is that they lie and lie a lot.

You’re not asking for peace, you’re asking them to kick the can down the road. That only helps Russia in the long term, not Ukraine.

[Mihalik]

So once more Elegiac wants to fight to the last Ukrainian.

That's the most profoundly stupid meme logic anyone has ever come up with related to this specific topic. Anyone who parrots it is either a knuckledraging moron or disingenuous little shit.

There are good guys and bad guys here, and if you have a shred of decency your duty to yourself is to give support to the good guys. Within one's means. That can be anything from active support, financial support, political support, or just moral support. I don't have any desire to see any Ukrainians die or Russians for that matter (well, I can think of a few Russians who should fucking hug a creeper in Minecraft), but as long as the Ukrainians have any desire to fight, we must continue supporting them.

[Breccia]

Biden and the EU to sanction hundreds of Russian lawmakers. Basically, the House.

[Jastall]

Tell me - do you really think Ukraine will not have to concede anything in the peace deal and that they can keep doing this forever?
No, I don't care about Russia's economy potentially collapsing some unknown time in the future, regime change or the importance of having good moral standards, I am asking about the country of Ukraine now and in the immediate future of 2-4 weeks.

Ukraine WILL have to concede things. Crimea's 100% gone, likely the Donbass too. But Moscow likely still demands the virtual surrender of their autonomy, something a nation cannot simply accept.

They can't rush to these concessions like headless chicken because "think of the childrennn". For them a bad peace now likely means a worse war in 5 to 10 years. If they thought otherwise they'd already have surrendered. Ukraine cannot sustain is current level of devastation forever but neither can Russia sustain the current level of political stalemate, military embarrassment and economic disaster. Blinking too soon and letting too much go might very well mean Ivan comes back sometime down the line except this time around he's actually prepared, isn't stupid and rolls over them in a week instead, with much punishments for the country's previous defiance.

You don't rush to make deals with an untrustworthy, borderline irrational actor. At least not without getting into a better position first (or worsening theirs). And Russia has proven to be completely untrustworthy. Jury's out on the irrational bit but I'm honestly not optimistic at this point.

[Cynep]

Biggest issue is still in Donbas, as Johnny said - slow advances (think like ~15km a day) with an everpresent threat of encirclement.

Since you like accuracy, 15km a day is a Kremlin fairy tale, that's 105km a week. Only happened during the first week in the south and north, not anymore.

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But Navalny supports the annexation of Crimea. He isn't some democratic moral nice good guy that we tend to present him as in the west.

That said, Putin is waaaay worse.

I mean annexing Crimea was Putin's achievement, for Putin to give it back would be acknowledging that he's a pathetic loser. But for a different ruler? Even though Navalny (or any other Russian politician) supported the 2014 invasion, he could accept a reset to 2013 even if it means forfeiting Putin's gains. I wish it was possible to poll regular Russians on trading Crimea for the end of sanctions and mutual hatred.

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Tell me - do you really think Ukraine will not have to concede anything in the peace deal and that they can keep doing this forever?
No, I don't care about Russia's economy potentially collapsing some unknown time in the future, regime change or the importance of having good moral standards, I am asking about the country of Ukraine now and in the immediate future of 2-4 weeks.

Judging by last 2-3 weeks, Ukraine won't collapse during next 2-4 weeks. They are openly repeating that ultimatums won't be accepted, something very drastic has to happen for them to change that - more drastic than bombing children's hospitals and forcibly taking civilians to concentration camps.

[Corvus]

This is an odd one - Russia had just one prototype of the T80UM2 tank, equipped with the Drozd-2 active protection system. It was spotted in the recent Zapad exercises, with the 4th Guards Tank.

Now it has been spotted in Ukraine. Destroyed.

With Russia supposed to have plenty of high end stock available, why a unique prototype would be assigned to frontline combat is a bit of a mystery.

[Dontrike]

Is...Russia having to learn the lesson they've historically taught to invaders? This timeline is freakin wild.

I saw a twitter thread (can't find the link) that went why Russia's military is so poor and nothing like has been reported for years. Basically Putin weakened the military on purpose as he and other upper level folks see that as the only people that could take them down and for decades they've been slowly making it awful.

[PhaelixWW]

I like this better than the usual conflict maps.



- - - Updated - - -

Hrmm, wonderful.

The Guardian: Russian forces have “looted and destroyed” a laboratory at the site of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, Ukrainian officials said.

“Russian occupiers illegally seized the newest laboratory,” the State Agency of Ukraine for Exclusion Zone Management said in a statement late on Tuesday.

The laboratory processes radioactive waste and contains “highly active samples and samples of radionuclides” which are now “in the hands of the enemy” the agency added.

The lab was described as a “unique complex with powerful analytical capabilities” unavailable elsewhere in Europe.

The Russians captured the plant in the first few days of the war, holding workers there hostage for weeks before some were released.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Iraq is not a same-language-speaking, neighboring country that the US was going to try to annex.

It dates back a bit but Texas comes to mind.

[PhaelixWW]

It dates back a bit but Texas comes to mind.

The US didn't invade the Republic of Texas to annex it, though; they came willingly. The following "border dispute" (*cough* Mexican-American War *cough*) was mostly fought between peoples who spoke different languages.


I mean, I guess we're splitting hairs here, at this point, but that was also going on 200 years ago.

[Flarelaine]

Ehh, who knows. USSR learned some lessons from it which helped against Germany. Russia, however, does have short term memory regarding war experience, I mean Chechen Wars were not that long ago, nor the short one with Georgia. It partially is connected to troops retiring, but officer cadre should retain it, at least in theory.

The officer cadre might remember wars but they also remember they're paid in turnips pennies so stealing that tank fuel is suddenly a great deal.

[beanman12345]

We got a bunch of Marjorie Taylor Green's arguing the immediate surrender of Ukraine in here I see. Not even surprised by the ones making them either.

[PhaelixWW]

We got a bunch of Marjorie Taylor Green's arguing the immediate surrender of Ukraine in here I see. Not even surprised by the ones making them either.

Who do you mean?

Include quotes.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

The US didn't invade the Republic of Texas to annex it, though; they came willingly. The following "border dispute" (*cough* Mexican-American War *cough*) was mostly fought between peoples who spoke different languages.


I mean, I guess we're splitting hairs here, at this point, but that was also going on 200 years ago.

A bit more recently there was also the Kingdom of Hawaii. Philippines and Cuba had troubled histories too, that bordered with annexion (Puerto Rico and Guam did get annexed).

The carving up of Yugoslavia is much more recent, and it did feature neighbors or near neighbors favoring (from weapon deliveries, diplomatic pressure to armed interventions) the factions with which they had cultural affinities (including murky WW2 past), with their economic annexation as a result.

The situation in Ukraine does echo the latter a lot, with one half of Ukraine having a long common history with Central Europe as well as a murky WW2 history.

[beanman12345]

Who do you mean?

Include quotes.

You could just read the last 2 pages... If you have to ask, using quotes won't fix ya.

[jonnysensible]

saw the vid of russian orcs looting houses. Proper taking TV's and microwaves, discipline absolutely fucked. and the reports of murder and rape, like Chechnya.

heard that intercepted phone call of the russian troop moaning about frostbite, having to live with loads of his comrades bodies because they couldnt do anything with them, and not having body armour. lol get wrecked. commander telling them it will be over in 4 days lmao