Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gaidax]

I have a question that I would like an answer to.

Let's assume for the sake of argument, however unlikely it might be to some of you, that Russia in half a year conquers all of Ukraine.

What do we then with Russia? Specifically what does the west when it comes to sanctions of occupied Ukraine, remember that with Crimea and Donbass there are vast sanctions on their entirety on virtually every aspect, but are we really going to see those kind of sanctions extended to an entire country of 40 million people and condemn them to misery?

That's like reading the cards or crystal ball. Who knows what it will be - likely yes, you'd have to sanction it all, because you certainly can't sanction Russia with one hand and then effectively spam it with humanitarian aid the other (ok yes North Korea, but not a good example IMO).

I do think, however, there is snowball's chance in hell Russia manages to take over Ukraine in that fashion this time around.

[Cynep]

So all the innocent people that would die don't matter in this equation? Why do you think total surrender is the only option? Ukraine will have to compromise to make a deal, I don't think Zelensky want that many people to die in the name of pride.

As a rule, submissiveness leads to more abuse and suffering than defiance. Still some people would choose to live as a slave while other people would choose to die fighting for their freedom. Ukrainians as a people were fighting for their freedom during majority of the last 500 years, and they made the same choice again a month ago.

There's an entire gamut of options of course, ranging from "fight a guerrilla war after hypothetical full occupation, until the enemy breaks and leaves" to "surrender at the moment of aggression" which already didn't happen, with a dozen of options I could list in between. Surrender is not really an option for Zelensky at this stage, though.

Yeah Ukraine will likely have to compromise, and I even outlined a reasonable compromise 3 weeks ago - Ukraine stays out of NATO, Russia withdraws beyond internationally recognized borders of Ukraine. That is a compromise, not a surrender.

[Gaidax]

And for what benefit would they engender this "reset" if not public opinion? What does it gain the politicians to have to use the mechanisms of politics to influence the "drones" enough to do so?

There's very little impetus to change it.

The same benefit Dems engendered with 2010 reset.

No Cold War, lower energy prices, preparing tackle big bad China, turning new page, etc etc.

Really not their first rodeo. How to make friends with the enemy 101 - find even scarier enemy.

Half of the country will instantly be like "hmm, so I am going to pay 20% less for gas now? Sweet..."

It's simply that - in the end people care mostly about what they get out of it and there is plenty merit.

[Kaleredar]

Puhlease,

American public attention span is that of a goldfish. In 2 years you have elections and in-between, as well as soon after you will find plenty other controversies and causes to gnaw on.

Don't go turning American public opinion into some sort of a thing, when you have a chunk of country ready to drink bleach or cow dewormer and other chunk thinks US is Avengers or Beacon of Freedom and happiness in the world, because some dude said so. Just to show how easy your unwashed masses are to manipulate.

That's kinda hilarious even.

The beautiful thing about the sanctions is that they don’t require the American citizen to remember them at all to keep working. Every man, woman and child in America could forget what Ukraine is tomorrow, but so long as the government sees it as a way to turn the knife in Russia’s side until they kowtow Back to their proper place in the world, the sanctions will just keep doing their thing.



And hey. At least the Americans don’t think they’re invading a sovereign neighboring country to get rid of nazis or secret chemical plants or “rescuing” same-language speakers.

Who would be so dumb to believe that sorry excuse for a war?

[Fugus]

It is even difficult to go after him economically or pound him with sanctions considering he is INSANE. For now they're working, yes, but when they eventually add up to cripple him to fuckedville forever, who is to say then he won't just decide "fuck it?" That's why the situation is terrifying.

You say no lunatic in history is unable to be stopped. Putin is the first one with nukes and threatening to use them.

You give him too much credit, it's already proven that it's not too hard to get him economically, he is hurting from it already pretty badly. And the moment Putin says "Fuck It" he doesn't have a giant red button he just gets to push and launch stuff, he actually has to give the orders to others who actually have to control the stuff and will know that they are killing their own families if they follow that order.

Putin gives that order, there is a good chance he will personally end up killed before he sees it followed. No matter how crazy he wants to be, the world will largely outlive him, Putin seems to love Russia and fantasize about the return of it's power and he knows that doing that removes Russia from the world stage permanently.

[Mihalik]

Some of the sanctions will stay but not all because whether you like it or not Russia has natural resources that the world needs that cannot be conjured up out of nowhere. The global impact is already being felt in places as many posters have pointed they don't "care" about. Even if the neo liberal warhawks giant boners blinds them to that fact the EU is certainly not going to stay for that ride.

Here's the thing about resource economies.

They can be squeezed pretty easily as they lack the diversity to maintain a functional economy without people buying that narrow range of products they are selling.

Sure, without them costs of electronics might go up on our end for example ....but on their end, they are literally starving and dying due to shortages of basic necessities.

So yeah, the sanction regime will be eased ...but the pressure will be maintained to keep Russia under pressure, just above water...but letting it slowly fall apart from within.

[Vankrys]

I have a question that I would like an answer to.

Let's assume for the sake of argument, however unlikely it might be to some of you, that Russia in half a year conquers all of Ukraine.

What do we then with Russia? Specifically what does the west when it comes to sanctions of occupied Ukraine, remember that with Crimea and Donbass there are vast sanctions on their entirety on virtually every aspect, but are we really going to see those kind of sanctions extended to an entire country of 40 million people and condemn them to misery?

Sadly yes, lifting the sanctions on Putin would only validate him in his expansionism madness. There are other countries in Europe to protect.
But let's be honest, Russia does not have the manpower to occupy a country of 40 millions people that does not want him there, not by a very long margin.
And the only pressure we'd have to free Ukraine would be to asphyxiate Russia.

[Gaidax]

And hey. At least the Americans don’t think they’re invading a sovereign neighboring country to get rid of nazis or secret chemical plants or “rescuing” same-language speakers.

Who would be so dumb to believe that sorry excuse for a war?

I just spilled my coffee all over the monitor.

It's as if 2003 did not happen. Did you find 'em Iraqi WMD yet?

Did you forget /s by chance?

[YUPPIE]

he doesn't have a giant red button he just gets to push and launch stuff, he actually has to give the orders to others who actually have to control the stuff

this is often said, but do we have actual proof someone as megalomaniacal as a dictator like Putin does not have full control over his own prized WMDs he waves around?

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/22/europ...ntl/index.html

[PhaelixWW]

Yeah Ukraine will likely have to compromise, and I even outlined a reasonable compromise 3 weeks ago - Ukraine stays out of NATO, Russia withdraws beyond internationally recognized borders of Ukraine. That is a compromise, not a surrender.

Do you really think Russia will leave Crimea? Or will we now get CPR to join DPR and LPR?

[Kallisto]

this is often said, but do we have actual proof someone as megalomaniacal as a dictator like Putin does not have full control over his own prized WMDs he waves around?

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/22/europ...ntl/index.html

That's been Russian/Soviet policy on nuclear weapons usage since Stalin's time.

[PhaelixWW]

I just spilled my coffee all over the monitor.

It's as if 2003 did not happen. Did you find 'em Iraqi WMD yet?

Did you forget /s by chance?

Iraq is not a same-language-speaking, neighboring country that the US was going to try to annex.

[Gaidax]

Do you really think Russia will leave Crimea?

The best case scenario for Ukraine right now from the inevitable negotiations is having DNR/LNR somehow stay part of Ukraine, as some sort of complete autonomy free to deal with Russia as it sees fit.

Crimea? Forget about it. It's a pie in the sky.

[Vankrys]

Do you really think Russia will leave Crimea? Or will we now get CPR to join DPR and LPR?

I don't know if Crimea has free press still, but if they do, i won't be glad to be assimilated with Russia, with the devastating sanctions and all.

[Fugus]

this is often said, but do we have actual proof someone as megalomaniacal as a dictator like Putin does not have full control over his own prized WMDs he waves around?

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/22/europ...ntl/index.html

Does he have a little red button on his desk that he presses and they launch without human input at all? And given the state of the nation and his military, how many of those nukes are actually functional instead of just there for show and more likely to blow up in their own silos rather than launch?

And that link even talks about if they are threatened personally, not just kicked out of a place where they are invading. And even then, most of those nukes wouldn't make it far and while the ones that did would cause massive damage, Russia would cease to exist the moment they launch. And the guy Putin orders to launch them knows that his and his families lives are ended the moment he does.

Like I said, you give him too much credit. As crazy as he wants to pretend he is and you pretend he is, that still won't change the math behind those decisions.

[Cynep]

I have a question that I would like an answer to.

Let's assume for the sake of argument, however unlikely it might be to some of you, that Russia in half a year conquers all of Ukraine.

What do we then with Russia? Specifically what does the west when it comes to sanctions of occupied Ukraine, remember that with Crimea and Donbass there are vast sanctions on their entirety on virtually every aspect, but are we really going to see those kind of sanctions extended to an entire country of 40 million people and condemn them to misery?

Misery is relative, I can testify as someone who lives in the sanctioned Donbass. Yes, I earn 1/3 of what I earned in 2013, I can't use international banking legally (there are exploits), we're heavily blockaded so travel is a problem (helped with Covid, lol), and all imported stuff costs extra. But the infrastructure remains, local stuff like food is good and cheap. For example with new currency rate I'm paying like $2.5 for home internet 100 mbit unlimited, and $0.5 for phone. So, Ukrainians could manage it if it helped the cause.

It's an impossible scenario. Russia doesn't have enough troops to occupy Ukraine. The only way they conquer Ukraine is if Ukraine is depopulated.

And then there won't be people left to be condemned to misery.

This is an even better answer than mine, actually.

[PC2]

If in two-three years whoever has the lead will start working towards "reset"

Maybe but it depends. If Russia supports China over the West in the coming years and decades then we've no reason to reconcile with them and have friendly relations. Some trading is fine but we know we have to work on minimizing it going forward and focus on creating alternative options.

[Gaidax]

Iraq is not a same-language-speaking, neighboring country that the US was going to try to annex.

It still got invaded alight over bullshit pretense. You can count it under "chemical weapons labs" clause there.

So I find the claims quite amusing seeing US does this shit a plenty too. Way too often in fact. Libya and Afghanistan were also both their own share of bullshit reasons too, especially Libya.

[Kaleredar]

I just spilled my coffee all over the monitor.

It's as if 2003 did not happen. Did you find 'em Iraqi WMD yet?

Did you forget /s by chance?

Aaaaand deflecting from the “sorry the world wasn’t apathetic enough to Russias invasion to just do nothing, and now that things are in place they literally don’t require any more input to continue to make Russia suffer” point I made.

Yeah, and that was 2003.

Why is Russia still fucking up even worse almost 20 years later?


You are extremely hopeful for Russia’s prospects in this situation that are all looking unilaterally terrible for them in the long run and continue to get worse every day.

[zealo]

Remind me please, what Russia did in 2008 that warranted this "reset" to begin with.

You are so funny, you really think anyone gives a damn what XYZ did.

The only thing that matters is merit and interests. In a few years from US and Co. will need Russia onboard to bomb some another dustball and it will be "reset" all over again.

I can tell you here and there - all it will take for next reset to initiate is Putin to go, because he's tainted. Then there will be some dancing around various points for a few years, until another reset agreement is signed as usual. That'd make it like what... 3rd one? Every 10-ish years on the clock. Comedy.

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And you know what's the kicker? Russia didn't even return South Ossetia to Georgia, despite this "reset". How's about them apples?

I'm not so naive as to believe countries operate on morals for past actions.

What isn't in the west's interest however is a Russia starting to have ambitions to disrupt the unipolar world order the likes of the USA have enjoyed since the early 90s. An attempt at a reset isn't anywhere near this certain without substantive changes in behaviour from Russia on a government level.