Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Breccia]

Five ways sanctions are hurting Russia

Technically the article says "US sanctions" but I'm guessing there's a lot of overlap. The US is not the only one kicking Russia in the wallet.

Russia’s GDP is shrinking

Russian gross domestic product (GDP) could shrink by as much as 7 percent on the year and 35 percent on the quarter, according to economists at J.P. Morgan. They say inflation could reach 14 percent in Russia by year’s end.

Sanctions have caused havoc in Russia’s financial sector

Russia’s central bank has struggled to stabilize the value of the ruble and prevent a steep rise in interest rates without access to roughly half of its foreign reserves.

The Russian stock market has also been shut down for weeks, suspending shares of domestic companies likely to plunge once trading resumes.

Russia has avoided defaulting on its foreign debt so far and even made a payment on Eurobond with U.S. dollars, which are increasingly valuable in Russia, instead of rubles.

Russian industries and trade have been shaken

Russia has been slowly integrating into globalized supply chains since the 1990s in industries such technology and aviation. Not having access to parts made, designed or controlled through intellectual property laws in the U.S. and elsewhere are now causing disturbances.

One key component used in a range of different industries is semiconductors, the computer chips that store and process data in products ranging from smartphones to weapons systems. Russia gets most of its chips from China, but many analysts say these are inferior by the standards of U.S. and other East Asian hardware.

The sanctions are having a cultural impact

For many Russians, the current crisis brings back memories of the 1990s, during which the country faced a prolonged depression as its economy was restructured following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Between 1989 and 1996, Russian GDP fell by more than 40 percent, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. It got so bad that the IMF had to stabilize the Russian ruble in 1995 with tight monetary controls and nominal exchange rate targets.

Quick note: I don't think the IMF feels the need to do that this time.

The sanctions have led to an exodus by Western businesses

A mass departure of multinational businesses from Russia has also evoked memories of Soviet-era limits on the country’s economy. Dozens of corporations have announced plans to end operations in Russia, citing both the moral implications of operating under Putin’s regime and the risks of running afoul of sanctions.

Russians have now been largely cut off from American financial services, technology and entertainment companies, including Apple, Netflix, Visa and Mastercard. American brands such as McDonalds and Levis, whose crossing of the Iron Curtain ushered a new era of economic liberalization in Russia, have also departed.

While the U.S. and its partners will likely reverse some of the economic sanctions on Russia at some point in the future, some of the business ties severed this year may never be restored.

There's more in the article, mostly personal stories and a comment on how the Russian government could create a knockoff industry.

Now just so we're clear: are these sanctions hitting Russian civilians? Yes. Do I feel bad about it? Yes. Is that a reason to stop? No. Put me on the jury of a murderer with a small, weeping child. Yes, I'll feel bad for the child when their parent goes to jail forever...but I'll still send them to jail forever. The person who left their child in that situation, is the murdering parent. If the Russian citizens want to know who to blame for the massive downfall their life has recently taken, they know it's Putin. We didn't sanction Russia just because we felt like it.

If the Russian people have a problem with the way things are working, the Kremlin's right over there. I hear it's easy to see, parts of it are on fire.

- - - Updated - - -

Defense Minister Shoigu hasn't been seen in public since March 11.

Shoigu retained power through the collapse of the CCCP somehow, and has worked for Putin since 1999 and as Defense Minister since 2012. He knows how Putin works. He knew what he was getting into.

One of three things has happened:
1) Nothing, and it's a coincidence
2) He's keeping a low profile, because he still has Putin's favor but not the public's
3) He lost Putin's favor, and he's basically dead now.

I emphasize that strikes are carried out only on military facilities and exclusively with high-precision weapons

-- Defense Minister Shoigu, blatant liar

I had trouble finding Shoigu's military experience, and eventually found out it was because he didn't have any. Russia's previous fighting of any real effort was 2008 and Shoigu wasn't in charge then. Crimea doesn't count. And he never served. Which means Shoigu was promoted by Putin after the 2008 war, most likely told to revolutionize and revamp Putin's aging military tech.

Um...yeah...I don't think he got around to that.

Everything I've read pre-2022 on Shoigu suggests he is a people person, knowing he'll never run Russia because Putin but that he still wanted to be popular, with his own generals and the people alike. This disaster of an invasion, therefore, blunted his biggest strength while exposing his biggest weakness.

And we can't pretend he had nothing to do with this. We have proof he was.

I've already personally posted that Putin put his top spy in house arrest and suggested Putin just had him killed. Therefore I'm not quick to say Shoigu is also dead. If there was a rift between Intelligence and Military, I don't see Putin as the man to blame them both and kill both. I see him as the man to kill one and throw the victim's head at the survivor, saying "This is a reminder of the price of failure". Of course, I could be wrong. Putin could be just flat-out murdering/jailing everyone that isn't Putin because of how badly this is going. But as Putin is a long-term spy person, I think he's more willing to blame bad intel than bad military, and if he was only going to kill one of them, it's Beseda, the head spy, who'd be first. Even fully-working tanks and fully-stocked troops would have been slowed down by mud and angry Ukrainians.

If you're a football coach and it suddenly turns out the other team has a world-class sweeper and a legendary goalie, does it really matter if your players hit the pitch in the wrong uniforms? They're still not scoring.

I think Shoigu is alive, hiding from cameras, and terrified. Because the only person Shoigu can blame for the failure that isn't Putin is already dead. He's next.

[Elenos]

Speaking of consequences of the war we're going to have a global food crisis.

https://www.politico.eu/article/worl...kraine-russia/

Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s biggest producers and exporters of grain. The disruption caused by the war has a direct impact on countries that rely on these supplies in the Middle East and Africa.

Half of Africa's wheat imports come from Ukraine and Russia, which is also a major fertilizer exporter. As for Ukraine, its exports have ground to a halt and its capacity to keep growing food this year is hanging by a thread. The crunch point will come in the fall, Beasley said, when the full impact of the war’s disruption is likely to be felt.

“If you think we’ve got hell on earth now, you just get ready,” Beasley warned. "If we neglect northern Africa, northern Africa’s coming to Europe. If we neglect the Middle East, [the] Middle East is coming to Europe."

The economic conditions facing these parts of the world are now worse than they were in the run-up to the Arab Spring, he said. And it's not just the populations of Middle Eastern and North African countries who will feel the squeeze.

The WFP is already feeding millions of people further south in Sahel countries like Niger and Burkina Faso, where problems will worsen if global food prices stay sky high. “I’ve been warning our developed nations for

[Adam Jensen]

Lavrov whining about how he and Russia are the victim (again)

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...rce=reddit.com

What did these idiots expect, that the world would ignore them as they invade a sovereign nation and start bombing civilians?

[Draco-Onis]

Speaking of consequences of the war we're going to have a global food crisis.

https://www.politico.eu/article/worl...kraine-russia/

That can't be right I have been assured by people on this thread that there's nothing Ukraine and Russia have that we can't just replace and if it does it's people dying in places they are not "interested" in.

- - - Updated - - -

Lavrov whining about how he and Russia are the victim (again)

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...rce=reddit.com

What did these idiots expect, that the world would ignore them as they invade a sovereign nation and start bombing civilians?

Well yes we do that all the time, Russia made a massive miscalculation they should have known that the global importance of Ukraine meant that they would be a reaction it's not like Georgia or Yemen. Biden even told him a small incursion is fine he just got too greedy.

[Gorsameth]

Lavrov whining about how he and Russia are the victim (again)

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...rce=reddit.com

What did these idiots expect, that the world would ignore them as they invade a sovereign nation and start bombing civilians?

They expected sanctions, they did not expect this severity which is kinda fair since I don't think its ever been does this severe before.

He would have gotten away with just taking the 'republics'. He would have gotten away with it if he went in another direction. The problem is he overcommitted despite repeated warnings and went for a country directly bordering NATO and the EU.

Just like Russia cares about keeping its neighbours within Russians sphere of influence so to does the West care about keeping its neighbours and 'buffer' states.

If he did this exact same shit to Azerbaijan the reaction would have been a 'meh'. That is sadly how things work.

[dextersmith]

Although not war related Russia has declared an interest in hosting Euro 2028 or 2032.

https://twitter.com/LBCNews/status/1...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Utterly delusional!

Lol what?! Aren't they banned from everything right now, even pee-wee hockey? How could the world's currently most hated country be considered for that. I don't think their economy will have recovered enough by then to house all those participants. Is this a trap to lure in more international athletes to hold hostage?

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/14/sport...ntl/index.html

[Kallisto]

Lavrov whining about how he and Russia are the victim (again)

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...rce=reddit.com

What did these idiots expect, that the world would ignore them as they invade a sovereign nation and start bombing civilians?

They're not talking to the world. They're talking to Russians in Russia. Which is why they say what they say. It's trying to keep the locals from rebelling.

[Pann]

Lol what?! Aren't they banned from everything right now, even pee-wee hockey? How could the world's currently most hated country be considered for that. I don't think their economy will have recovered enough by then to house all those participants. Is this a trap to lure in more international athletes to hold hostage?

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/14/sport...ntl/index.html

It will feed into the narrative that the evil West is against them when their application is filed in the recycling cabinet.

[Breccia]

"Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s biggest producers and exporters of grain."

We've talked about this before. My opinion remains unchanged. It sucks that countries that relied on Ukrainian food have that supply cut off because of Putin. They should blame Putin. It sucks that countries that relied on Russian food have that supply cut off because of Putin. They should blame Putin.

I do hope the drop is obvious enough that even the US knows there's a big market over there, and US farmers pick up the slack. This could be very good for them, and quick napkin math of Ukraine/Russian exports suggest the US can fill a lot of it -- maybe half.

[Mihalik]

That can't be right I have been assured by people on this thread that there's nothing Ukraine and Russia have that we can't just replace and if it does it's people dying in places they are not "interested" in.

Either the US or the EU could single handedly replace every gram of lost Russian/Ukrainian production.

We literally pay farmers not to grow wheat or to grow something else as part of quota and environmental regeneration schemes. Same for fertilizers.

The capacity is there. What is closing is the window for US/European farmers to plant wheat. Governments need to act like 5 minutes ago to pass the necessary structural reforms (tax incentives, subsidies etc) to get farmers to plant wheat.

But as this is not an urgent, high profile issue (yet) politicians are sleeping on it.

[Breccia]

Governments need to act like 5 minutes ago to pass the necessary structural reforms (tax incentives, subsidies etc) to get farmers to plant wheat.

I mean, even that might not be needed. If, for example, Nigeria said "we need 20 million bushels of wheat and Ukraine will only fill 5" you'd think it would be easy for Nigerians and Americans to just start signing order contracts. Yeah there might be tariffs or whatever, but US AG conglomerates should see this is an opportunity that will make them more rich.

- - - Updated - - -

NATO to move large number of troops to its Eastern front.

President Putin’s invasion is brutal. And the human suffering is horrifying and painful to witness.

We are determined to do all we can to support Ukraine.

But we have a responsibility to ensure that the war does not escalate beyond Ukraine, and become a conflict between NATO and Russia.

This would cause even more death and even more destruction.

[Forogil]

not really. The Russian army is not performing well but it is taking ground (it will probably end up taking all of donbass). It's combat effectiveness isn't great at the moment but its pulling battalions from elsewhere to replenish its forces. It still has alot of military power it can bring down.

To me any discussion about cease-fire (or peace) must consider how long it is likely to last.
A cease-fire that lasts a few days or weeks will currently be beneficial to Russia - a year-long one (without any strict de-militarization of Ukraine) will benefit Ukraine more.

[Breccia]

A cease-fire that lasts a few days or weeks will currently be beneficial to Russia - a year-long one (without any strict de-militarization of Ukraine) will benefit Ukraine more.

Which seems like a really good reason for Russia to agree to a lengthy cease-fire, then just break it in a few weeks.

[Rasulis]

We've talked about this before. My opinion remains unchanged. It sucks that countries that relied on Ukrainian food have that supply cut off because of Putin. They should blame Putin. It sucks that countries that relied on Russian food have that supply cut off because of Putin. They should blame Putin.

I do hope the drop is obvious enough that even the US knows there's a big market over there, and US farmers pick up the slack. This could be very good for them, and quick napkin math of Ukraine/Russian exports suggest the US can fill a lot of it -- maybe half.

From what I understand, when the price of wheat jumped from 7.50 to 12.28 overnight, it spooked the market. The buyers stopped buying. No incentive to increase production on the supply side since the demand cratered to almost zero.

It has gone down to 10.68 since then. Not a lot of buyers yet. It will need to go down some more before we'll start seeing buyers come back. Once buyers are back, I expect we'll start seeing increase in production.

[PC2]

I think ultimately Ukraine will come out on top in the coming decade. The West is rich enough to give Ukrainians a better lifestyle than Russians by investing in their economy and helping them rebuild after the conflict.

So the best way to beat Russia is to make an alliance with their disobedient satellite states and then make them richer(per capita) than Russia. That would also send a signal to all other Russia puppet states that they could be doing better if they had different loyalties.

[Rasulis]

Five ways sanctions are hurting Russia

Technically the article says "US sanctions" but I'm guessing there's a lot of overlap. The US is not the only one kicking Russia in the wallet.

One thing we learned from this war is that this Russia is not the old USSR. With self-sufficient economy and industrial might that used to give NATO generals nightmares of hordes of Russian tanks rolling through Western Europe.

There are already reports of Russian oil companies having problem with maintaining production in their older fields after Haliburton, Schlumberger and Baker Hughes suspended operations in Russia. It didn't even take a week. That's just ridiculous.

Not a lot is mentioned about their arctic operations. I expect that will be in trouble soon since the operations were almost exclusively performed by BP and Shell.

[Finlandia WOAT]

They expected sanctions, they did not expect this severity which is kinda fair since I don't think its ever been does this severe before.

He would have gotten away with just taking the 'republics'. He would have gotten away with it if he went in another direction. The problem is he overcommitted despite repeated warnings and went for a country directly bordering NATO and the EU.

Just like Russia cares about keeping its neighbours within Russians sphere of influence so to does the West care about keeping its neighbours and 'buffer' states.

If he did this exact same shit to Azerbaijan the reaction would have been a 'meh'. That is sadly how things work.

I do think if their delusions had come to fruition and Ukraine rolled over and surrendered, done in half a week, easy game, then the sanctions would have been perfunctory. I don't think they were wrong there. They were wrong in that Ukraine would surrender immediately (let alone they were willing and able to go down fighting and bring the Russian Army and economy with them).

I think ultimately that's how the Ukraine will come out on top in the coming decade. The West is rich enough to give Ukrainians a better lifestyle than Russians by investing in their economy and helping them rebuild after the conflict.

So the best way to beat Russia is to make an alliance with their disobedient satellite states and then make them richer(per capita) than Russia. That would also send a signal to all other Russia puppet states that they could be doing better if they had different loyalties.

Kamil Galeev, by far the most fascinating analyst covering the Russia/Ukraine war in my twitter feed, has opined that this is the real reason Putin wants to, at the least, wreck Ukraine. He's afraid of his citizens seeing first and hearing second hand the quality of life a Western liberal progressive government can offer in comparison to his ethno-nationalist kleptocratic petrostate.

[jonnysensible]

One thing we learned from this war is that this Russia is not the old USSR. With self-sufficient economy and industrial might that used to give NATO generals nightmares of hordes of Russian tanks rolling through Western Europe.

There are already reports of Russian oil companies having problem with maintaining production in their older fields after Haliburton, Schlumberger and Baker Hughes suspended operations in Russia. It didn't even take a week. That's just ridiculous.

Not a lot is mentioned about their arctic operations. I expect that will be in trouble soon since the operations were almost exclusively performed by BP and Shell.

not to mention that you don't get the strong welfare state in exchange for the authoritarianism anymore like with the old USSR, you just get the authoritarianism.

[Rasulis]

not to mention that you don't get the strong welfare state in exchange for the authoritarianism anymore like with the old USSR, you just get the authoritarianism.

Is it bad? When I was in Russia the tour guide mentioned that they have the highest home ownership in the world. I do recall being amazed at the total absence of vagrancy in Moscow & St. Petersburg.

[Milchshake]

Is it bad? When I was in Russia the tour guide mentioned that they have the highest home ownership in the world. I do recall being amazed at the total absence of vagrancy in Moscow & St. Petersburg.

Yes, guided tours ... known for taking you to the bad parts of town.