Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

No, no, no, don't be silly.

Kaput is German.

Yes, we've seen estimates that Russia had 150,000 troops ready to go, yes NATO's lowest estimate is 20% of that. But I don't think that includes mercenaries, Syrians or Belarussians. Losing 20% is bad, of course, as we can see from the loss of 20% of the ruble's purchasing power.

I don't think the Russians count the mercs, Syrians and Belarussians. (the Wagner group is rumoured to have lost over 4k as well, the Syrians are apparently not yet there and the Belarussians keep flipflopping about joining.)

Also, that video is dated, right now the situation in Irpin, Hostomel and Bocha is apparently that the Russians there have been encircled by Ukrainian forces, take that for what you will. (sorry if I used the wrong spelling for the place names.)

[Breccia]

Russia's central bank governor tries to resign and Putin refuses.

Elvira Nabiullina apparently tried to step down, but it would be viewed as betrayal by Putin, who instead made her sign up for five more years last week.

"Why would she want to resign?"

Well for one, her boss is a murdering dictator invading a sovereign country.

Also, that invasion is likely making her job a walking nightmare. And that was before Putin demands "hostile" countries buy oil in rubles not Euros or dollars, a move almost certainly done to get as much foreign currency into Russia to prop up its failing economy.

"Does that apply to previous contracts?"

I mean, it sounds like it would break previous contracts to me.

"Does EUrope have a choice?"

Yes. Just don't do it. The vast majority of Russia's oil and gas sales are in Euros or dollars, like 95% plus. Swapping that out for rubles would help the exchange rate, but Russia would still get the Euros and dollars. Considering Russia has declared nearly everyone "hostile" he has two choices, (a) keep the existing contracts or (b) lose massive amounts of money. Yes, EUrope would hate losing 40% of its natural gas if they just stopped buying it entirely. But the effect on Putin's economy would be worse and everyone knows it. Germany and Italy are already publicly against the change and they're customers #1 and #2. Russia is in no condition to refuse purchases of their biggest export for foreign currency.

There's also the question of how. Many of Russia's banks are sanctioned. Doing business with them is difficult. So, yeah, Nabiullina's life suddenly got a lot more complicated for reasons outside her control. I can see why she'd want out.

[Easo]

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/sta...60525106778120



Official maps (probably delayed) from Kiev - shows much more realistic advances in the west aka the recent counterattacks and quite likely overdone one in the east, which I don't believe that much. Regardless - some ground has been regained.

Also, that invasion is likely making her job a walking nightmare. And that was before Putin demands "hostile" countries buy oil in rubles not Euros or dollars, a move almost certainly done to get as much foreign currency into Russia to prop up its failing economy.

"Does that apply to previous contracts?"

I mean, it sounds like it would break previous contracts to me.

"Does EUrope have a choice?"

Yes. Just don't do it. The vast majority of Russia's oil and gas sales are in Euros or dollars, like 95% plus. Swapping that out for rubles would help the exchange rate, but Russia would still get the Euros and dollars. Considering Russia has declared nearly everyone "hostile" he has two choices, (a) keep the existing contracts or (b) lose massive amounts of money. Yes, EUrope would hate losing 40% of its natural gas if they just stopped buying it entirely. But the effect on Putin's economy would be worse and everyone knows it. Germany and Italy are already publicly against the change and they're customers #1 and #2. Russia is in no condition to refuse purchases of their biggest export for foreign currency.

There's also the question of how. Many of Russia's banks are sanctioned. Doing business with them is difficult. So, yeah, Nabiullina's life suddenly got a lot more complicated for reasons outside her control. I can see why she'd want out.

Germany's economy would literally fall tits up in that case - which would immediately bring at least few others with them and fuck with everyone else. 4th largest economy of the world, remember?? We absolutely are much more likely to pay them in roubles than allow that to happen.

Yep. Russia is going hyperbole with reports of 500 and blocking as much information as possible, on purpose. So yes, I'm taking the higher number because, right now, it's more likely that NATO's higher number is correct than anything Russia has published and stood by. By a lot. If you don't like it, take it up with Russia cutting off all information and their ridiculous 500 estimate. Tell them "be honest". Again, you and I both know 15,000 is closer to the truth than 500 is. I still win.

Not exactly sure what you are winning, because obviously a two+ week old number is much less likely to be accurate now than the fantastical 15k. And those losses - invasion should be actually failing by now, not just getting stuck. But as you wish.

that 15000 looks about right, some of the videos ive seen from belarus are russian bodies in trucks that are absolutely stacked.

On the first day Ukraine lost around 1500 and Russia lost around 1400, these numbers aren't wild.

I highly doubt that any side lost that many on the first day. Absolute majority of the destroyed vehicles so far have been without bodies (some, without a question, have been removed, but some were definitely simply abandoned)

[Breccia]

US formally accuses Russia of war crimes.

We’ve seen numerous credible reports of indiscriminate attacks and attacks deliberately targeting civilians, as well as other atrocities. We are committed to pursuing accountability using every tool available, including criminal prosecutions.

Russia’s forces have destroyed apartment buildings, schools, hospitals, critical infrastructure, civilian vehicles, shopping centers, and ambulances, leaving thousands of innocent civilians killed or wounded. Many of the sites Russia’s forces have hit have been clearly identifiable as in-use by civilians.

-- US SecState, so honest his name is literally A. Blinken

The accusation is nothing without follow-through. ICC can bring charges but probably doesn't have the manpower to actually go there in person and make arrests. If the ICC were to ask, and the US were to help, Putin would likely take that as an invasion despite the ICC asking for help.

- - - Updated - - -

obviously a two+ week old number is much less likely to be accurate now than the fantastical 15k.

Again, the second Russia releases anything official and reasonable I'm willing to discuss it. Wake me when that happens. Until then, 15,000 isn't "fantastical" when they already admitted 10,000 as has been pointed out. Until Russia gives a better answer than 500 while cutting off any information that could contain the truth, I think I'm perfectly justified in using something in NATO's range. I trust NATO's estimates over Russia's hyperbole. Your opinion on the subject changes nothing.

And no, I don't think Germany will fall to pieces over a monetary dispute that Russia has no ability to enforce and no position to dictate terms. If Russia could make Germany fall to pieces, they would have done so by now. Be honest.

[Easo]

Russia blocks access to Google News website

I wonder how long until full Google block. Yandex has the lion share of the market anyway, but regardless this will not help getting actual info to Russians.

Again, the second Russia releases anything official and reasonable I'm willing to discuss it. Wake me when that happens. Until then, 15,000 isn't "fantastical" when they already admitted 10,000 as has been pointed out. Until Russia gives a better answer than 500 while cutting off any information that could contain the truth, I think I'm perfectly justified in using something in NATO's range. I trust NATO's estimates over Russia's hyperbole. Your opinion on the subject changes nothing.

And no, I don't think Germany will fall to pieces over a monetary dispute that Russia has no ability to enforce and no position to dictate terms. If Russia could make Germany fall to pieces, they would have done so by now. Be honest.

They did not admit that they lost 10k, enough already. Hard proof or GTFO, I am not going to listen to some Daily Mail level of shit. You, instead, should better pray that Russia indeed has that many losses, because that is one of the few things that can actually help Ukraine survive this more or less intact. And you better not think about what is happening with Ukrainian manpower, because this works two ways.

You don't think? Do you understand that Germany's heavy industry fucking stops in that case? You really need to lay off the hype pipe and hope that no side ever goes that far. "They already would have done it" - while talking about a situation where Russian gas keeps flowing through a country they are at war with and the sanction givers happy keep sucking it xD

[Milchshake]

The Russians are losing so many flag officers, they’re gonna have to call up Mike Flynn and Tulsi Gabbard from reserve duty.

[Rasulis]

Japan protests Russian halt to World War Two peace treaty talks

So, Japan and Russia never signed a peace treaty after WWII. You learned something new every day.

[Elegiac]

I am not going to listen to some Daily Mail level of shit.

I mean, you clearly aren't going to listen to hard facts if they're unfavorable to Russia, either. Remember this?

Why did USA and USSR both make so many nuclear weapons if 100 are enough?

Hint: Being able to read Kremlin propaganda in its native language does not make you a foreign policy expert.

[Poopymonster]

Japan protests Russian halt to World War Two peace treaty talks

So, Japan and Russia never signed a peace treaty after WWII. You learned something new every day.

Reminds me of David Eddings Elenium trilogy.
A treaty was never signed with Zemoch ending the war, how do you justify renewed hostilities after 500 years?
We were resting.
I don't know about the rest of you, but I feel quite well rested.

[Breccia]

They did not ad--

Oh hey, Easo, did Russia finally release an updated death count in the last half hour?

What? They haven't? I guess you provided no new information and I have no choice but to stick with NATO's estimate.

Don't worry. I do have new information.

Ukrainians have pushed Russian forces back to the east of Kyiv, US official says

Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces back on the frontlines east of Kyiv, a senior US defense official told reporters Wednesday.

Russian forces are about 55 kilometers (roughly 34 miles) away from Kyiv’s city center to the east, an increase of between 25 and 35 kilometers (roughly 15 to 22 miles) as compared to the same location yesterday, the official said.

To the northwest of Kyiv’s city center, Russian forces are “digging in, and they are establishing defensive positions,” the official said. They have not gotten any closer to Kyiv’s city center along this line, the official added. They remain 15-20 kilometers (9-12 miles) away from Kyiv’s city center to the northwest.

At the same time, the official said that Russian forces are becoming more active in the eastern part of Ukraine in the Donbas area, saying they’ve “applied a lot more energy” in the Luhansk and Dontesk regions, the two areas the Kremlin declared as independent republics ahead of last month’s invasion.

“We’re starting to see them sort of dig in around Kyiv, but really trying to go more on the offense than they have been, more energy apply to that eastern part,” the official said. “So that’s a little bit of a change from what we’ve been talking about before.”

Also, Russia to expel US diplomats in a retaliatory move. No real surprise there.

[Draco-Onis]

Russia's central bank governor tries to resign and Putin refuses.

Elvira Nabiullina apparently tried to step down, but it would be viewed as betrayal by Putin, who instead made her sign up for five more years last week.

"Why would she want to resign?"

Well for one, her boss is a murdering dictator invading a sovereign country.

Also, that invasion is likely making her job a walking nightmare. And that was before Putin demands "hostile" countries buy oil in rubles not Euros or dollars, a move almost certainly done to get as much foreign currency into Russia to prop up its failing economy.

"Does that apply to previous contracts?"

I mean, it sounds like it would break previous contracts to me.

"Does EUrope have a choice?"

Yes. Just don't do it. The vast majority of Russia's oil and gas sales are in Euros or dollars, like 95% plus. Swapping that out for rubles would help the exchange rate, but Russia would still get the Euros and dollars. Considering Russia has declared nearly everyone "hostile" he has two choices, (a) keep the existing contracts or (b) lose massive amounts of money. Yes, EUrope would hate losing 40% of its natural gas if they just stopped buying it entirely. But the effect on Putin's economy would be worse and everyone knows it. Germany and Italy are already publicly against the change and they're customers #1 and #2. Russia is in no condition to refuse purchases of their biggest export for foreign currency.

There's also the question of how. Many of Russia's banks are sanctioned. Doing business with them is difficult. So, yeah, Nabiullina's life suddenly got a lot more complicated for reasons outside her control. I can see why she'd want out.

I can see why Putin would not want her to quit considering the circumstances she has done an outstanding job. I wouldn't want to be in her position but as a fellow economist I admire her other central banks have shit the bed in lesser situation but she has kept the ship steady. The rubble regained 20% from its lows and climbing, you can't mitigate everything as a central bank but they have done everything they could given the situation.

[Breccia]

you can't mitigate everything as a central bank but they have done everything they could given the situation.

Yeah, the damage was sudden and sharp but they changed a bunch of laws to keep runs on the bank from destroying everything. Maybe she should be running the war.

[Draco-Onis]

Yeah, the damage was sudden and sharp but they changed a bunch of laws to keep runs on the bank from destroying everything. Maybe she should be running the war.

Agreed Russian economists are better than their generals.

[Huehuecoyotl]

They did not admit that they lost 10k, enough already. Hard proof or GTFO, I am not going to listen to some Daily Mail level of shit.

Once again the fog of war descends to make the opinions of everyone that isn't Easo worthless. Especially when it paints Russia in a negative light.

And you wonder why so many of the other posters here don't take you seriously. It's impossible to distinguish you from an Eastern European version of Baghdad Bob.

The estimate of 10k came from a Russian source. It vanished fairly quickly, but like the journalist holding up a "stop the war" sign on TV, just because it vanished quickly doesn't mean it wasn't there.

What I can't understand is what you think you're achieving by switching from laughable credulity for positive Russian news to spectacular levels of doubt for anything negative. All it means is that any sensible thoughts you might bring to the discussion will be ignored in the midst of your bipolar responses to different news sources.

If you want to play the thoughtful sceptic, you're going to need to be consistent in the application of that scepticism. As it stands, your bias spews over every post you make, and clouds anything you're trying to impart.

[Draco-Onis]

Once again the fog of war descends to make the opinions of everyone that isn't Easo worthless. Especially when it paints Russia in a negative light.

And you wonder why so many of the other posters here don't take you seriously. It's impossible to distinguish you from an Eastern European version of Baghdad Bob.

The estimate of 10k came from a Russian source. It vanished fairly quickly, but like the journalist holding up a "stop the war" sign on TV, just because it vanished quickly doesn't mean it wasn't there.

What I can't understand is what you think you're achieving by switching from laughable credulity for positive Russian news to spectacular levels of doubt for anything negative. All it means is that any sensible thoughts you might bring to the discussion will be ignored in the midst of your bipolar responses to different news sources.

If you want to play the thoughtful sceptic, you're going to need to be consistent in the application of that scepticism. As it stands, your bias spews over every post you make, and clouds anything you're trying to impart.

I think Russia has lost thousands of troops until an independent party runs confirmation I tend not to believe numbers from governments since they all have some sort of agenda. However given the level of incompetence and disfunction we have seen from the Russians their losses has to be greater than Ukraine's.

[Breccia]

I think Russia has lost thousands of troops until an independent party runs confirmation I tend not to believe numbers from governments since they all have some sort of agenda.

That's fair, but when two sources disagree but only one is hiding the numbers on purpose, I'm going to choose the side that's not intentionally hiding information. Russia is most likely hiding their death count because of how emasculatingly embarrassing it is for them.

[Draco-Onis]

That's fair, but when two sources disagree but only one is hiding the numbers on purpose, I'm going to choose the side that's not intentionally hiding information. Russia is most likely hiding their death count because of how emasculatingly embarrassing it is for them.

Of course Russia is the worst offender but the Pentagon and Ukraine have incentives to fudge the numbers too. Aside from that it's a war zone all these things are wild guesstimates that are bound to be off even if they were without an agenda.

[Zaydin]

They did not admit that they lost 10k, enough already. Hard proof or GTFO, I am not going to listen to some Daily Mail level of shit. You, instead, should better pray that Russia indeed has that many losses, because that is one of the few things that can actually help Ukraine survive this more or less intact. And you better not think about what is happening with Ukrainian manpower, because this works two ways.

Do you really think the numbers Russia is giving are even remotely accurate? The Russian casualty reports Ukraine is putting out are likely inflated, too, but still more likely to be closer to the truth than the Russian numbers because Putin admitting he got more Russians killed in a month than died in ten years in Afghanistan would be a major blow to his control of the country. As it is, the Western intelligence estimates are far likely closer to the real numbers than either Russia or Ukraine are reporting.

Russia got too used to bombing rebels who had to scrape together whatever they could find. They are now up against an opponent who might not have their numbers but is still on a rough technological parity with them and Russia is finding out it's not so easy to go up against a relatively modern army, especially one with a good motivation to fight like hell. The Ukrainian army is fighting to defend their home and independence. What are the poorly trained and equipped Russian conscripts fighting for? Not getting shot by Tzar Putins commissars or not getting branded traitors for failing to conquer a sovereign nation?

When are you going to accept that no one is buying what you are selling, tovarisch?

[Milchshake]

Recent history shows the Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan after 10 years and 15,000 KIA. When the army was larger and not looted by oligarchs.

And that was before video games or 4chan.

[Easo]

I mean, you clearly aren't going to listen to hard facts if they're unfavorable to Russia, either. Remember this?

Hint: Being able to read Kremlin propaganda in its native language does not make you a foreign policy expert.

Show me a hard fact about 10k deaths.

Funny, you can't even read the opposite side to filter out the grains of truth, you can't read Ukrainian nor understand it (unless you can suddenly ), so you just listen to English sources, I guess. Telegram channels in Russian and Ukrainian? Meh, who needs those. Oh, and you clearly don't know much about those two countries, their mentality and shared traits. I bow to your superior skills getting truth out with those limitations.

Oh hey, Easo, did Russia finally release an updated death count in the last half hour?

What? They haven't? I guess you provided no new information and I have no choice but to stick with NATO's estimate.

Don't worry. I do have new information.

Ukrainians have pushed Russian forces back to the east of Kyiv, US official says

USA says this:

Pentagon asked to speak to NATO’s disclosure today that they assess 7K to 15K Russian soldiers killed in four weeks.

Senior defense official says he has not seen estimates “as high as NATO’s” but does not offer U.S. numbers. U.S. still has “low confidence” in their assessments.

Guesswork, no one has true data, wow, what a surprise... Basically, you are just hoping that the highest number from NATO's estimate, which varies wildly, is true. Good approach xD

Also I posted about pushback before, so not sure what you are trying to say...

Once again the fog of war descends to make the opinions of everyone that isn't Easo worthless. Especially when it paints Russia in a negative light.

And you wonder why so many of the other posters here don't take you seriously. It's impossible to distinguish you from an Eastern European version of Baghdad Bob.

The estimate of 10k came from a Russian source. It vanished fairly quickly, but like the journalist holding up a "stop the war" sign on TV, just because it vanished quickly doesn't mean it wasn't there.

What I can't understand is what you think you're achieving by switching from laughable credulity for positive Russian news to spectacular levels of doubt for anything negative. All it means is that any sensible thoughts you might bring to the discussion will be ignored in the midst of your bipolar responses to different news sources.

If you want to play the thoughtful sceptic, you're going to need to be consistent in the application of that scepticism. As it stands, your bias spews over every post you make, and clouds anything you're trying to impart.

Take a good look around here, at people ignoring such silly things as logistics, Ukrainians forced to hide weapons in shopping centres, garrages, houses, etc., missile strikes on barracks killing hundreds, then at the same time arguing that there are definitely so many Russian dead, because Russia has to be lying because it is Russia and that Ukraine is doing quite fine, actually.

You really do not seem to get that I care only about what is realistic, sourced with something at least close to hard facts. And a deleted post in single place is not the best "hard fact".

Do you really think the numbers Russia is giving are even remotely accurate? The Russian casualty reports Ukraine is putting out are likely inflated, too, but still more likely to be closer to the truth than the Russian numbers because Putin admitting he got more Russians killed in a month than died in ten years in Afghanistan would be a major blow to his control of the country. As it is, the Western intelligence estimates are far likely closer to the real numbers than either Russia or Ukraine are reporting.

Russia got too used to bombing rebels who had to scrape together whatever they could find. They are now up against an opponent who might not have their numbers but is still on a rough technological parity with them and Russia is finding out it's not so easy to go up against a relatively modern army, especially one with a good motivation to fight like hell. The Ukrainian army is fighting to defend their home and independence. What are the poorly trained and equipped Russian conscripts fighting for? Not getting shot by Tzar Putins commissars or not getting branded traitors for failing to conquer a sovereign nation?

When are you going to accept that no one is buying what you are selling, tovarisch?

What Russian numbers? There has been a single one. SINGLE ONE weeks ago. At least pretend that you are following this.

Tovarisch? Kindergarden level of insult, trying to pin anyone who disagrees to the opposite side.