Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gorsameth]

8 years ago Ukraine signed the Minsk Agreement with Russia to prevent a full scale invasion when it seems quite very possible Russia would do it, 8 years ago Ukraine would have been conquered easily.

Here we are 8 years down the line and Ukraine's military is significantly superior. A few years from now they'll be even stronger. What Ukraine and the West need against Russia is time: Time to strengthen militaries, time for the sanctions to work and time to prepare.

You are right in that if there's any agreement today it won't last more then 5-10 years, but 5-10 years of Ukrainian cities not being flattened and their entire country destroyed is a good deal for them.

I love that your sitting at home in comfort telling the Ukrainians they should give in to the Russians so they can get invaded again in 5 years.

How about we let the people fighting for their way of live decide when they should surrender.

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This is the key point people don't get here.

Right now Ukraine is fighting on fumes and with personal weapons, some missiles and such. They can't even make use of what West could potentially supply, simply because they don't have training that takes time.

That's why the West is hunting for Soviet stuff to give away to Ukraine, because Western one will take a good year to train to use and probably more to use effectively for Ukrainian army.

Nobody in their right mind thinks that Ukraine-Russia agreement would usher some new era of Peace and Happiness that will last decades, it is pretty clear for all that it will likely be just a several years break before it all flares up again. But the key thing is that Ukraine needs that time, both to rearm and train to use Western equipment AND for sanctions to actually bite and restrict Russia.

It's really that simple.

... have you missed all the talk about western instructors teaching the Ukrainian army to use modern weapons and tactics for the last 8 years?

No, their pilots are not trained to fly F16s because they don't have any but they sure know how to use all the man portable weapons being shipped their way. We have the wrecks of a ton of Russian vehicles, aircraft and helicopters to make that point rather clear.

[CostinR]

I love that your sitting at home in comfort telling the Ukrainians they should give in to the Russians so they can get invaded again in 5 years.

How about we let the people fighting for their way of live decide when they should surrender.

You confuse a ceasefire with surrender, cute, must be comfortable for you in whatever country you are in.

Here's a reality check: Russia controls Crimea, controls large sections of Donbass, controls the Crimea canal.

They won't give any of those back and Ukraine cannot take them back through military force.

Anyone living in a country bordering Ukraine is hardly sitting in comfort. Or do you think that mass of millions of refugees is just some flick of our imagination? Our hospitals, schools, hotels and homes are crowded with Ukrainians who have lost virtually everything.

But let's continue hearing from the brigade of keyboard warriors thousands of miles away who say Ukraine should fight to the bitter end, see their entire country devasted and ruined and an enormous part of their population becoming refugees.

But hey let's not have a ceasefire, because that would mean Ukraine surrenders to neo-nazis. I am sure Mariupol is a great vacation spot right now, why don't you go there high and mighty warrior.

[Breccia]

I live in Romania, who do you think Russia would go after next if they conquer Ukraine?

I'm just going to guess "not NATO".

[jonnysensible]

The west attack by Russia on Kyiv looks like it might be in a real bad way. It was the side that was fucked logistically because there are no train lines so you have to drive supplies down.

made a doodle on goolge maps



This is what is allegely happening its sort of the reverse donbas situation.

If Ukraine can pin those Russians in Irpin and encircle them from behind they are fucked.

There is alot of action around Makariv at the moment not really sure who is in control but it could well be Ukraine. Looks like it could be good news West of Kyiv at least. This is what happens when you think you can wrap something up in a week and 3 weeks later you haven't adjusted.

[Gaidax]

... have you missed all the talk about western instructors teaching the Ukrainian army to use modern weapons and tactics for the last 8 years?

Who the F cares about that. Can Ukrainian Army use Patriots? No they can't. Can Ukrainian army pilot Western jets? No they can't.

Why do you think there was this whole MiG jets nonsense from two weeks ago? Because that's the only thing Ukrainian pilots can pilot right away. Do you realize how much time it takes for pilot to train piloting something else entirely?

Why do you see West scrambling to find some Soviet-made AA systems like 9K33 Osa to give to Ukraine? Because they know how to operate it from the get go.

You just don't get it. The instructors did not give them classes on how to operate anything more than Javelins or Stingers and the like. That's good, but it's not what can keep Ukrainian cities being turned into rubble.

[Barzotti]

Anyone living in a country bordering Ukraine is hardly sitting in comfort. Or do you think that mass of millions of refugees is just some flick of our imagination? Our hospitals, schools, hotels and homes are crowded with Ukrainians who have lost virtually everything.

But let's continue hearing from the brigade of keyboard warriors thousands of miles away who say Ukraine should fight to the bitter end, see their entire country devasted and ruined and an enormous part of their population becoming refugees.

But hey let's not have a ceasefire, because that would mean Ukraine surrenders to neo-nazis. I am sure Mariupol is a great vacation spot right now, why don't you go there high and mighty warrior.

But... there's absolutely zero guarantee that Russia would respect any ceasefire. We know perfectly well you can't trust Putin and the current invasion has demonstrated that quite a lot of times. What makes you think he can be trusted in that situation?

[CostinR]

But... there's absolutely zero guarantee Russia would respect any ceasefire. We know perfectly well you can't trust Putin and the current invasion has demonstrated that quite a lot of times. What makes you think he can be trusted in that situation?

This isn't about trust, it's about what can and cannot be achieved. It's about buying time. Time to equip, time for sanctions, time for Europe to vastly increase military spending etc.

After the 2014 ceasefire agreement at Minsk there was constant shelling on both sides but the frontline itself remained static. There weren't armored assaults. This gave Ukraine 8 years to prepare, and they did.

[Barzotti]

This isn't about trust, it's about what can and cannot be achieved. It's about buying time. Time to equip, time for sanctions, time for Europe to vastly increase military spending etc.

After the 2014 ceasefire agreement at Minsk there was constant shelling on both sides but the frontline itself remained static. There weren't armored assaults. This gave Ukraine 8 years to prepare, and they did.

The exact same argument can be applied to Russia too and you know damn well that Russia will keep trying to invade Ukraine but with better preparation and logistics. A ceasefire would allow Russia to buy time aswell.

[CostinR]

The exact same argument can be applied to Russia too and you know damn well that the Russia will keep trying to invade Ukraine but with better preparation and logistics. It's about buying time for Russia aswell.

Time is in the West's favor on this: Sanctions, military build up, munition stocks etc. Russia would learn some very valuable lessons from this, it is true, but so will Ukraine and the West.

If this war goes on for a few more months Ukraine won't even lose conventionally, they'll run out of ammo long before that. Those Javelins and Stingers the US provided Ukraine? There aren't infinite stocks of them and the West is gonna run of out their stocks to send to Ukraine at this rate pretty quickly and there's problems in ramping up production:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...raine-00019333

[Barzotti]

Time is in the West's favor on this: Sanctions, military build up, munition stocks etc. Russia would learn some very valuable lessons from this, it is true, but so will Ukraine and the West.

If this war goes on for a few more months Ukraine won't even lose conventionally, they'll run out of ammo long before that. Those Javelins and Stingers the US provided Ukraine? There aren't infinite stocks of them and the West is gonna run of out their stocks to send to Ukraine at this rate pretty quickly and there's problems in ramping up production:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...raine-00019333

So why would Ukraine negotiate a ceasefire if time is in the West's favor? If time is running out for your enemy, you don't want to stop the situation getting progressively worse for him. You don't want to call it a draw if your chances of winning are increasing with time. And if you want a ceasefire to protect civilian lives and for humanitarian reasons, there's no guarantee the ceasefire would be respected by Russia anyway.

And if the war goes on for a few more months, Russia will run out of ammo way before the West.

[Gorsameth]

This isn't about trust, it's about what can and cannot be achieved. It's about buying time. Time to equip, time for sanctions, time for Europe to vastly increase military spending etc.

After the 2014 ceasefire agreement at Minsk there was constant shelling on both sides but the frontline itself remained static. There weren't armored assaults. This gave Ukraine 8 years to prepare, and they did.

The Russian army is in a worse state then the Ukraine army at this point. Ukraine is being supplied better then the Russian army thanks to Western aid.
There are more Russian army elements cut off from supply lines then Ukraine elements.

A cease fire is objectively better for the Russian army then the Ukrainian army at this point.

[jonnysensible]

The Russian army is in a worse state then the Ukraine army at this point. Ukraine is being supplied better then the Russian army thanks to Western aid.
There are more Russian army elements cut off from supply lines then Ukraine elements.

A cease fire is objectively better for the Russian army then the Ukrainian army at this point.

not really. The Russian army is not performing well but it is taking ground (it will probably end up taking all of donbass). It's combat effectiveness isn't great at the moment but its pulling battalions from elsewhere to replenish its forces. It still has alot of military power it can bring down.

[Breccia]

If Ukraine can pin those Russians in Irpin and encircle them from behind they are fucked.

There's some kind of irony of beseiging a force that was there to beseige you.

[Crispin]

How anyone living in a NATO country can fear Russia, especially after the pathetic shitshow they've pulled of in Ukraine, is beyond me.

Suggesting that Ukraine should go for peace for 5 years, and let Russia come back with refined tactics, makes zero sense either. If Ukraine would prefere to lose with less devastation, they would surrender.

This is not a soccer match, there's no half time peptalk, and suddenly team Russia is like a new team. The equipment that the Stingers and Javelin take it, takes longer to replace. Russia is not sitting on endless equipment.

[Yunru]

There's some kind of irony of beseiging a force that was there to beseige you.

There is still a army on easteren river bank tho.

[Corvus]

Poland has expelled 45 Russian diplomats accused of spying.

[CostinR]

How anyone living in a NATO country can fear Russia, especially after the pathetic shitshow they've pulled of in Ukraine, is beyond me.

Ask the Polish government who was too afraid to give Ukraine Mig-29s how they can fear Russia.

Perhaps no country should fear the US after the debacle of Afghanistan? Oh wait.

Suggesting that Ukraine should go for peace for 5 years, and let Russia come back with refined tactics, makes zero sense either. If Ukraine would prefere to lose with less devastation, they would surrender.

Perhaps Ukraine should have kept fighting in 2014 instead of signing Minsk. I am sure things would have worked well for them. You know in the same year they were getting their asses handed to them.

Oh wait they didn't keep fighting, they accepted a ceasefire that was constantly broken that gave them 8 years to train, equip and modernize their military, which has allowed them in conjunction with Russia's poor military plans to hold for a month.

It will not last.

But hey when Ukraine runs out of Javelins, Stingers, artillery shells and even assault rifle rounds that the west cannot replenish for them because we have neither the munition stocks or supply chain at this time and the remnants of their air defenses and air forces are left completely inoperable I am absolutely certain things will go well for them. Ukraine CANNOT sustain this level of fighting given their munition stocks and the west cannot make up for it in the short term: We are already running out of ammo to send them for the AT and AA infantry systems.

On top that how do you suppose those munition stocks even reach the Ukrainian front lines in Donbass, Chernhiv and Sumy? Kiev has one major road remaining and about two weeks left of food ( the food aspect is according to their mayor ).

Russia may have issues getting the ammo to their troops in the field, but they absolutely have the necessary stocks to keep going for a very very long time.

In short we need time. Time to get the supply chains going, time to give Ukraine ammo and heavy military equipment, time to train to use that equipment and time for the sanctions to work. We have the resources to make this far more difficult for Russia then it has been over the last few weeks, but not instantly: It will take the west and Ukraine years.

Because a Ukraine with far more powerful military might not even be invaded because it would be too bloody costly for Russia.

But nevermind that, we're on a trip in Disneyland according to people like you. Enjoy the sightseeing, not that any of you lot would ever dare step foot in eastern europe to help the refugees, let alone heading to Ukraine to help there.

[Corvus]

Someone appears to have thrown a molotov at the walls of the Kremlin. Poor bugger is going to be falling out of a window soon.

[Breccia]

Perhaps no country should fear the US after the debacle of Afghanistan?

Um...the US and allies invading Afghanistan was not the shitshow you're suggesting. The occupation, absolutely, complete fucking disaster, but the invasion itself went smoothly. This line makes as little sense as living in a NATO country and being worried Russia will invade...after Ukraine.

[Crispin]

Ask the Polish government who was too afraid to give Ukraine Mig-29s how they can fear Russia.

Perhaps no country should fear the US after the debacle of Afghanistan? Oh wait.



Perhaps Ukraine should have kept fighting in 2014 instead of signing Minsk. I am sure things would have worked well for them. You know in the same year they were getting their asses handed to them.

Oh wait they didn't keep fighting, they accepted a ceasefire that was constantly broken that gave them 8 years to train, equip and modernize their military, which has allowed them in conjunction with Russia's poor military plans to hold for a month.

It will not last.

But hey when Ukraine runs out of Javelins, Stingers, artillery shells and even assault rifle rounds that the west cannot replenish for them because we have neither the munition stocks or supply chain at this time and the remnants of their air defenses and air forces are left completely inoperable I am absolutely certain things will go well for them. Ukraine CANNOT sustain this level of fighting given their munition stocks and the west cannot make up for it in the short term: We are already running out of ammo to send them for the AT and AA infantry systems.

On top that how do you suppose those munition stocks even reach the Ukrainian front lines in Donbass, Chernhiv and Sumy? Kiev has one major road remaining and about two weeks left of food ( the food aspect is according to their mayor ).

Russia may have issues getting the ammo to their troops in the field, but they absolutely have the necessary stocks to keep going for a very very long time.

In short we need time. Time to get the supply chains going, time to give Ukraine ammo and heavy military equipment, time to train to use that equipment and time for the sanctions to work. We have the resources to make this far more difficult for Russia then it has been over the last few weeks, but not instantly: It will take the west and Ukraine years.

Because a Ukraine with far more powerful military might not even be invaded because it would be too bloody costly for Russia.

But nevermind that, we're on a trip in Disneyland according to people like you. Enjoy the sightseeing, not that any of you lot would ever dare step foot in eastern europe to help the refugees, let alone heading to Ukraine to help there.

So because there's a limit to what kind of weapons we'll deliver, NATO countries should be fearful of Russia? Sound logic mate. There's a difference on provoking a war with Russia, and beeing superior in one.

And wtf does a occupation against insurgents have to potential war with Russia?

Where do you compare NATO military stocks vs Russian?

Your end comment is just sheer stupidity. No one is enjoying this, regardless if we disagree with you.

Edit: Keep in mind that one of Russias demands is the demilitarization of Ukraine, how do you figure out that we'll have years to arm Ukraine?