Russian invasion of Ukraine

[jonnysensible]

Makariv looks smashed to bits. think its the 36th army getting chewed up. one of the Bayraktar TB2's is hunting there. lots of pics of dead armour today.

[Easo]

Oh, I already have. Russia's numbers have not changed from their only estimate of 500. I have the right, nay, the duty to accept any credible alternative, even if it would be embarrassing to Russia, because Russia would not be suppressing the real number if it wasn't.

Duty? Chill bro, this is WoW forum. Oh, and a secret - everyone would be smart to supress real numbers. That's kinda obvious, no?

The Afghan mujahedeen were ragtag rebels that had to scrape together whatever they could find. The Ukrainian army is a professional modern army.

Oh boy... Let me tell you a secret too - both the attacker and the defender have learned from the same sources, the same school of military thought. Even literally in the same schools, together. And since no one here considers Russians having a professional army...
Few Western instructors would not change it, it is a different school of warfare and Ukraine has a long way for truly modern, professional army.

The Afghans were much braver than you.
Be thankful the previous generation of your own countrymen were braver than you. They risked everything and ran for freedom the first chance they got.


Very sad to see you now being an authoritarian-simp, to win some kind of meta on a gaming forum.

They were very brave and died in hundreds of thousands, if not more. To the last Ukrainian, once more!

You do not realize where I am from. Here in Baltics all three countries have one big question as part of their national identities - what if we chose to fight back in 1940? Or 1939, before the Soviet base "agreement"? Everybody wants to know, but nobody actually would have liked to find out.

No. Stop strawmanning.

There are sensationalist sources in the West, yes. But they are not all attached at the hip to the Ukrainian regime the same way pretty much every Russian source is attached at the hip to the Kremlin. There is a very clear disparity in credibility and you trying to paint it as a matter of "both sides" just services Kremlin narratives.



I also realise that a) Ukrainian AA missiles have built in failsafes that cause them to destruct mid-air if they miss their targets, and b) Russia has been actively targeting civilian areas with artillery and missiles. Doesn't take a genius to boil that down to the most likely explanation.



Funny, because I seem to recall you were outright denying that Russia was targeting civilian areas and have now switched tack to "well it's a modern war so attacks on civilian areas are going to happen, what did you expect?"

This is what I mean when I say there's a manifest bias on your part. Claims of Ukrainian incompetence or misconduct do not receive the same level of skepticism you treat claims of Russian incompetence or misconduct - those get dismissed with "fog of war" bullshit or what is effectively "I can read Cyrillic script Telegram threads therefore I am the ultimate arbiter of truth."



No, habibi. The simulations all pretty much align with the "about two hundred is all that is necessary for a practical deterrent" number, and those estimates were done when the USSR was a factor rather than its decrepit successor.

Of course they are not - but I would like them to be better. Too much to ask?

Lol, another Slant. AA missiles from S-300, even Buk's have serious warheads. What happens if it never raises above highest buildings? You get image like from the start of war with that high rise in Kiev. Or the self-destruction happens in vicinity of some tall building? Something like this, where Klitchko is trying to sell the shrapnel elements from Buk's warhead as Russian missile strike:
https://t.me/milinfolive/79103

Failsafes my ass, you are talking about something not meant to be fired from middle of city and not made back in USSR - which every single S-300 and Buk unit in Ukraine's arsenal is - even missiles are that old, just refurbished.
I did post this before, but whatever:
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/33885
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/33886

I kinda don't really remember talking about Russian incompetence much and as for misconduct - I will repeat that most of you here are sheltered people who do not understand what war looks like. Moral high ground does not help with not dying. If you think that, for example, tanks are usually just randomly firing into some apartment building to kill civilians because Russians are barbarians, then I have a bridge to sell to you.
I did and still am talking about their losses, though.

As for Ukrainians - take off the pink glasses. As far as I understand and know they are in serious trouble in several aspects. Or, as per BBC (heh) from half hour ago:

And Ukraine still faces major challenges. Its forces are running low on weapons and ammunition, armed Russian drones are now operating largely with impunity and Moscow is calling up reinforcements.

[PhaelixWW]

You guys are so committed to camping this thread and tone policing it to the point of nonsense. Demanding everyone treat as Subject MAtter Experts.

That deserves a hyperbolic response. Imagine being so committed to Absurdism, but touching less grass than a Mime.

Does that mean, then, that it's fair to call you a racist, Trump-loving, contrarian, Putin-worshiping authoritarian-simp?

If not, why not?

I mean, you're literally trying to turn what should be an academic disagreement into a moral one specifically for the purpose of falsely painting anyone who disagrees with you as human garbage.

If you think that's "deserved", then you're probably closer to the morally bankrupt caricature you're busy painting than the people you're attacking.

Don't want tone police? Either don't use shitty, unwarranted tone, or else expect the same in return, I guess. It's entirely possible to disagree with someone, even vehemently, without resorting to logical fallacies and lies.

[Elegiac]

Of course they are not - but I would like them to be better. Too much to ask?

And once again, you're ignoring the point.

You do not apply this same standard to Russian sources. Just Western and Ukrainian ones.

Lol, another Slant. AA missiles from S-300, even Buk's have serious warheads. What happens if it never raises above highest buildings? You get image like from the start of war with that high rise in Kiev. Or the self-destruction happens in vicinity of some tall building?

Like I said; the videos clearly show a downward trajectory that explodes violently on contact. That does not service the notion of an AA misfire at all, especially when you account for the fact the claims of an AA misfire started on a Kremlin-operated platform.

I kinda don't really remember talking about Russian incompetence much and as for misconduct - I will repeat that most of you here are shelted people who do not understand what war looks like. Moral high ground does not help with not dying.

This has fuck all to do with your about-face on Russia targeting civilian areas, rofl. My point is that you switched from denying it to trying to justify it, and the denial was based entirely on a clear favor for Russian sources rather than non-Russian ones.

[Rasulis]

They are going to open the market for trading tomorrow. At least partially.

[Zaydin]

Makes sense. Not only are they throwing meat into the grinder and everyone knows it, Putin could arrest = kill any of them at any time.

They knew what they got into. I have no sympathy for them. Soldiers and conscripts, different story, hope they defect or flee.

Yep. Putin will happily scapegoat them and throw them under the bus rather than admit he was told what he wanted to hear by his Intel chiefs that the mighty Russian army would conquer all of Ukraine in days.

- - - Updated - - -

They are going to open the market for trading tomorrow. At least partially.

How many seconds will it take for it to implode after it opens?

[Kaleredar]

Yep. Putin will happily scapegoat them and throw them under the bus rather than admit he was told what he wanted to hear by his Intel chiefs that the mighty Russian army would conquer all of Ukraine in days.

How many seconds will it take for it to implode after it opens?

If they're hazarding it I'm guessing they've attempted to finagle it in some way where it doesn't at least appear to implode.

[Rasulis]

Yep. Putin will happily scapegoat them and throw them under the bus rather than admit he was told what he wanted to hear by his Intel chiefs that the mighty Russian army would conquer all of Ukraine in days.

- - - Updated - - -



How many seconds will it take for it to implode after it opens?

It will be interesting. Sberbank is valued at $0.52 per share in the London Stock Exchange from a high of $14.97. Not sure if it is going to be one of the stock that will be available to trade.

[jonnysensible]

It will be interesting. Sberbank is valued at $0.52 per share in the London Stock Exchange from a high of $14.97. Not sure if it is going to be one of the stock that will be available to trade.

gonna look down the back of my sofa for change and buy gazprom.

[Elegiac]

gonna look down the back of my sofa for change and buy gazprom.

If you have a few Robux lying around they might accept those, too. Rofl.

[Breccia]

There are times you just have to admire The Onion for "It's funny because it's true".

Surveying his accomplishments in the past month with evident satisfaction, Vladimir Putin reportedly grew pleased Thursday as his plot to ruin the Russian economy and destroy its international standing went exactly to plan. “It’s incredible that in a few short weeks, my goal to tank the ruble and humiliate the Russian military on the global stage has gone off without a hitch,” said the Russian president, adding that when he laid out his plan to his inner circle months ago, few had believed that he could make such swift progress on stalling his army outside of Kyiv against a military that was an embarrassing order of magnitude smaller than his own. “The cherry on top is that by isolating myself from every country in Europe and driving the world together in condemnation of me, I’ve essentially made us into a vassal state of China’s. So we’re basically fucked from an economic and geopolitical perspective, which is just what I hoped to get out of this war. Now if I can just a get a few more thousand of my own troops killed, I’ll have everything I could ever want.” At press time, Putin had reportedly begun devising plans to invade Estonia with the express intention of spreading his forces ever thinner across eastern Europe in an unwinnable quagmire.

Now I know The Onion is a satire site but...circle the part that's wrong?

[Easo]

UK is sending more stuff:

The UK Government will provide 6,000 new defensive missiles to Ukraine & over $30m in military aid, per a statement.

This more than doubles defensive lethal aid provided by UK to Ukraine to over 10,000 missiles. UK also working to provide longer-range targeting & intel.

And once again, you're ignoring the point.

You do not apply this same standard to Russian sources. Just Western and Ukrainian ones.



Like I said; the videos clearly show a downward trajectory that explodes violently on contact. That does not service the notion of an AA misfire at all, especially when you account for the fact the claims of an AA misfire started on a Kremlin-operated platform.



This has fuck all to do with your about-face on Russia targeting civilian areas, rofl. My point is that you switched from denying it to trying to justify it, and the denial was based entirely on a clear favor for Russian sources rather than non-Russian ones.

I almost do not read official Russian news, because first, they are blocked in my country, even TASS, second, when I did I even posted about the insanse bullshit coming from them. Search my posts about RIA News (the same ones who wrote the "Brave new world" a tad too soon...).

The video clearly shows AA missile launch (vertical smoke trail makes it very obvious), geolocated to the south of Kiev - thus cannot be Russian - going into a high rise. Because that is how loss of target/malfunction looks like. Reality does not care.

Telegram is Kremlin operated platform? Are you... serious? The same Telegram who Kremlin tried to block, the same Telegram who with Whatsapp is one of the very few uncensored channels left in Russia? WTF, Elegiac? Are you OK?

Blah blah. Welcome to war, it sucks. Morality does not care for the dying. If you want to be like Endus, who strangely is not here to talk about pure infantry in cities he is so fond, then feel free to do so, I will just laugh.
Your problem is that you keep mistaking the way war works as "justifying it". There is no other approach how to take a city aside from literally starving it, or, on the opposite side - how to defend one (which is why I keep repeating that I do not judge Ukrainians for certain actions of theirs).
That is why I said - sheltered, that is why you keep talking about atrocities and targeting civilians - because you do not get it how it works.

[Corvus]

There are times you just have to admire The Onion for "It's funny because it's true".



Now I know The Onion is a satire site but...circle the part that's wrong?

Ooh, I know this one. The bit about Estonia. It's actually Poland.

[Elegiac]

I almost do not read official Russian news, because first, they are blocked in my country, even TASS, second, when I did I even posted about the insanse bullshit coming from them. Search my posts about RIA News (the same ones who wrote the "Brave new world" a tad too soon...).

You do realise the Kremlin operates more than just official news sources, right? That it has a literal army of paid trolls designed to spread disinformation on social media?

The video clearly shows AA missile launch (vertical smoke trail makes it very obvious), geolocated to the south of Kiev - thus cannot be Russian - going into a high rise. Because that is how loss of target/malfunction looks like.

No dude; as I've said AA missiles do not work like that, and the video evidence does not support it being a misfire. Especially when the claims about it being a misfire started on a Kremlin operated platform.

Telegram is Kremlin operated platform?

I am referring to Smotrim, not Telegram. Stop strawmanning.

Blah blah. Welcome to war, it sucks. Morality does not care for the dying. If you want to be like Endus, who strangely is not here to talk about pure infantry in cities he is so fond, then feel free to do so, I will just laugh.
Your problem is that you keep mistaking the way war works as "justifying it". There is no other approach how to take a city aside from literally starving it, or, on the opposite side - how to defend one (which is why I keep repeating that I do not judge Ukrainians for certain actions of theirs).

If you're saying that war crimes are tactical necessities then why did you go to such lengths to try and claim Russia wasn't committing them using Russian sources as your evidence? Why not just skip straight to justifying said war crimes like you do with Israeli ones?

Again; the point here is not that modern warfare sucks, which it does, it's that you have a very clear bias in favor of Russian claims by not treating them with remotely the same level of skepticism as you do non-Russian claims.

[Finlandia WOAT]

Oh boy... Let me tell you a secret too - both the attacker and the defender have learned from the same sources, the same school of military thought. Even literally in the same schools, together. And since no one here considers Russians having a professional army...
Few Western instructors would not change it, it is a different school of warfare and Ukraine has a long way for truly modern, professional army.


:

Ukrainian forces have received training from the Western special forces for the last 8 years. For example:

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/18/w...n-ukraine.html

I think after the army was smashed in 2014 by Russian regulars- one reason why Putin thought this would be a cakewalk, the UA imploded in 2014- the Ukrainian armed forces reorganized itself along Western/NATO principles. A quote I found from the Wikipedia article of current CiC of Ukraine, from last July:

The overall course of reforming Ukraine's Armed Forces in line with NATO principles and standards remains irreversible. And the key here is the principles. Changes must take place primarily in the worldview and attitude towards people. I would like you to turn your face to the people, to your subordinates. My attitude towards people has not changed throughout my service».

Also, I keep hearing from those OSINT guys that Russian forces aren't following their own orthodoxy. It makes sense. Most conscripts are poorly trained and weren't told they were going into a warzone until the Ukrainians started shooting at them. Communication has been not far from non existent. That's actually why these generals keep getting shot, they lose touch with their units, head to the front, then either get sniped or assaulted at the front.


Edit: Also Ukraine is far closer to a modern professional army, exponentially close, infinite closer, than it is to the brave goat farming cave dwellers of the Mujahideen. There are Chechen Mujahideen fighting alongside Ukraine apparently (not Kadryov's goon squad, which only exists to for PR and to torture/murder civilians and PoWs).

[Daymanmb]

Hard proof or GTFO

We're still waiting on evidence of soldiers using ambulances as cover on the reg.

[Corvus]

The 15K dead might be feasible if including Chechens/Speratists/Wagner, all of whom are being treated a little more expendably. We know Russia's 3 week old claim of just 500 dead is wrong because the BBC a week back had counted more publicly known funerals of those who had died in Ukraine than Russia's given number.

The Chechens seem to have lost a lot of men - an Al Jazeera journalist reported of speaking to people he knew in Chechnya and they claim there have been hundreds dead, with mourning houses all over the country, and that conscription of people up to 50 is taking place to be fed into the holocaust as they call it.

And those funerals would have been from victims early in the war - they were of the ones that they could recover the bodies of, ship them home (in some cases to the far sides of Russia) and prepare the funerals. All of which takes time. Plus there were a disproportionate number of officers in those funerals. Being a little more high profile, they get preferential treatment over the poor common grunts.

[Elenos]

The 15k dead is fantasy figures, but it's the higher end estimate provided by NATO. The likely number is somewhere between 7k-15k, I'd say about 10k or so. The US was saying 10k as the highest estimate 5 days before that NATO figure, and if you tell me Ukraine killed 5k in 5 days where we've seen a reduction in heavy fighting I'll eat my own hat.

@Breccia No one here gives a shit about Russian government statements and figures. This isn't your "duty" to correct what none of us actually takes seriously in any way.

[NED funded]

There are times you just have to admire The Onion for "It's funny because it's true".



Now I know The Onion is a satire site but...circle the part that's wrong?

Seriously dude I cant imagine what exactly was Putin and his inner circle thinking about doing this war? Like do they genuinely believe they could leave unscathed from this?

Western powers will at best see a 6% inflation or somewhere like that. The Russian economy is prob at its limits rn

[Breccia]

This isn't your "duty" to correct what none of us actually takes seriously in any way.

I disagree. As long as Russia is pumping misinformation, I'm going to take a legitimate estimate, like you personally quoted, on the far side. My number will be closer to the truth, plus I get to mock them for free.

We should all be doing this.