Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

From the reading of it, it sounds like he means a Russia without Putin would be weak and unstable.

Possibly...though if other rumours are true, then these statements can be seen as a not so subtle start of distancing. Of course, rumours are just that, rumours.

[Vampiregenesis]

I read that the russians lost 40000 personnel, do they even have enough manpower to win this war or steal territory? that's more than 25% of their total force isn't it?

This war doesn't make sense, why would they not use their full power to win and preserve troops and their status, why would they not take steps to protect their economy beforehand. This war looked suicidal since the beginning where both armies were almost evenly matched (considering Ukraine is the defender so it has an advantage). Why would someone who spend his entire life with riches and yachts do war to someone else, if you are going to do war then at least invest some money into your army.

Senseless and very suicidal war.

[Magnagarde]

From the reading of it, it sounds like he means a Russia without Putin would be weak and unstable.

That is definitely the context within which he said that.

[MCMLXXXII]

I read that the russians lost 40000 personnel, do they even have enough manpower to win this war or steal territory? that's more than 25% of their total force isn't it?

This war doesn't make sense, why would they not use their full power to win and preserve troops and their status, why would they not take steps to protect their economy beforehand. This war looked suicidal since the beginning where both armies were almost evenly matched (considering Ukraine is the defender so it has an advantage). Why would someone who spend his entire life with riches and yachts do war to someone else, if you are going to do war then at least invest some money into your army.

Senseless and very suicidal war.

40k is way too much. I think even the Ukrainians aren't claiming that much

[Santti]

40k is way too much. I think even the Ukrainians aren't claiming that much

A quick Google search it's a NATO estimate, 30k-40k. And it's killed, wounded, captured and MIA, combined.

[Iphie]

40k is way too much. I think even the Ukrainians aren't claiming that much

No, but NATO is, based on 'known' casualties (7-15k killed) and a 1-3 KIA -WIA ratio. Then there's deserters and POW's. It adds up really quickly.

[MCMLXXXII]

A quick Google search it's a NATO estimate, 30k-40k. And it's killed, wounded, captured and MIA, combined.

If, and that's a big if, it's true then Russia went FUBAR.
Because no matter how much you control the media this is gonna be heard by the gen pop.
Not that I trust anything coming from the Russian MoD but NATO is ofcourse aligned with their counterpart.

[Santti]

If, and that's a big if, it's true then Russia went FUBAR.
Because no matter how much you control the media this is gonna be heard by the gen pop.
Not that I trust anything coming from the Russian MoD but NATO is ofcourse aligned with their counterpart.

Oh yeah, Russia fucked up, alright.

I don't think Russia can win this anymore. Ukraine just isn't budging, and Russia is crumbling, as their currency is all but worthless and morale is non-existent. Their military is an absolute joke.

Of course, Russia will want to claim some sort of victory in the end, and some vague "We came to kill them Nazis, and we succeeded" is the best they can hope for. Might get to keep Crimea as well.

[Azadina]

Oh yeah, Russia fucked up, alright.

I don't think Russia can win this anymore. Ukraine just isn't budging, and Russia is crumbling, as their currency is all but worthless and morale is non-existent. Their military is an absolute joke.

Of course, Russia will want to claim some sort of victory in the end, and some vague "We came to kill them Nazis, and we succeeded" is the best they can hope for. Might get to keep Crimea as well.

Crimea, and they'll probably have to choose between one of their favourite "republics". Had they only invaded the republics to steal, they'd have gotten away with it.

[Gabriel]

I must say: Goddamn has it been good to post in forums where the russian trolls are just permabanned straight up for posting pro-russia drivel, instead of this hellhole. Never change MMOC, you pile of shit.

[Iphie]

Crimea, and they'll probably have to choose between one of their favourite "republics". Had they only invaded the republics to steal, they'd have gotten away with it.

Let Russia have the republics and Crimea, all demilitarized as a buffer zone between them and Ukraine. Hey, if Russia wants a buffer then so can Ukraine. (I know that this is a very unlikely scenario and no, I'm not serious about this.)

And yes, I agree, had they only invaded the republics then they'd gotten away with it. Sanctions would have been implemented, the rest of Ukraine would have been equipped but nothing would have changed much.

[Azadina]

Let Russia have the republics and Crimea, all demilitarized as a buffer zone between them and Ukraine. Hey, if Russia wants a buffer then so can Ukraine. (I know that this is a very unlikely scenario and no, I'm not serious about this.)

And yes, I agree, had they only invaded the republics then they'd gotten away with it. Sanctions would have been implemented, the rest of Ukraine would have been equipped but nothing would have changed much.

Now there's an idea to refine. Demilitarize the hell out of those regions; no military grade equipment, and strict ban on any and all kind of firearms, modern bows/crossbows, explosives and so forth. Local police force is allowed couple modern crossbows.

[Gorsameth]

I am trying to run some scenarios in my head as to why Russia is forcing to buy their O&G in rubles, cuz it literally doesnt make sense

1. Russia sells gas and gets paid in dollars and euros, they get Euros and dollars for their imports for currency reserves (Result: Price of Ruble is stable)

2. Russia forces buyers to purchase rubles, in order to purchase rubles they would have to exchange Euros and Dollars for rubles. Russia gets its euros and dolalrs (Same result?)

Am I missing something here cuz all it seems this does is endanger existing contracts

From what I heard the idea is that countries would have to buy rubles to pay the contracts, thereby increasing trading in the ruble and boosting the currency somewhat out of the current crater it is in.

[Gaidax]

The whole ruble thing is not a bad idea, but it won't be happening overnight at all. I imagine they can only do it for new contracts, which will take a year or so to happen.

The obvious benefit for Russia is that it will force West to purchase and thus prop up Ruble.

That said I doubt anything major will come out of this. It's going to be a mechanism to reduce effect of sanctions a tad, but that it.

[Rustedsaint]

I am trying to run some scenarios in my head as to why Russia is forcing to buy their O&G in rubles, cuz it literally doesnt make sense

1. Russia sells gas and gets paid in dollars and euros, they get Euros and dollars for their imports for currency reserves (Result: Price of Ruble is stable)

2. Russia forces buyers to purchase rubles, in order to purchase rubles they would have to exchange Euros and Dollars for rubles. Russia gets its euros and dolalrs (Same result?)

Am I missing something here cuz all it seems this does is endanger existing contracts

I mean this is more of the same brilliant thinking that bought this trouble in the first place.

[Gorsameth]

The whole ruble thing is not a bad idea, but it won't be happening overnight at all. I imagine they can only do it for new contracts, which will take a year or so to happen.

The obvious benefit for Russia is that it will force West to purchase and thus prop up Ruble.

That said I doubt anything major will come out of this. It's going to be a mechanism to reduce effect of sanctions a tad, but that it.

If its just for new contracts later that is actually makes it a worse idea because it gives Europe a year to move further away from Russian gas and oil and then tell Russia its not happening, they can accept dollars or not sell anything and their economy explodes yet again.

[Gaidax]

If its just for new contracts later that is actually makes it a worse idea because it gives Europe a year to move further away from Russian gas and oil and then tell Russia its not happening, they can accept dollars or not sell anything and their economy explodes yet again.

As if Europe won't be trying to diversify its energy suppliers as is. This won't change anything on that front.

Overall, it will give Ruble some prop up, but it's not some earthshaking effect either. It's not like West will now have to stockpile billions dollars worth of Ruble - they will have to get some, but just to cover new contracts over time.

[Shadowferal]

Sounds like the Ukrainians should start blowing up the port facilities to deny their use to the Russians. Go scorched earth.

Staging point to boat in supplies...maybe?

[Skulltaker]

I must say: Goddamn has it been good to post in forums where the russian trolls are just permabanned straight up for posting pro-russia drivel, instead of this hellhole. Never change MMOC, you pile of shit.

And yet you come back here. Says a lot about you, to be honest.

[Draco-Onis]

If its just for new contracts later that is actually makes it a worse idea because it gives Europe a year to move further away from Russian gas and oil and then tell Russia its not happening, they can accept dollars or not sell anything and their economy explodes yet again.

It will take at least 10 years to move away from Russian oil and gas without causing a recession in Europe. It can be done now but the analysis points to a lot of EU countries going into a recession as a result due to rising inflation and energy prices rising. The figures vary wildly though somewhere between .2 - 5% because it's really hard to tell what a sudden cut like that would do.