Russian invasion of Ukraine

[AntiFascistVoter]

Russia has reportedly given up on trying to capture Kyiv for the time being after a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed them back in the Kyiv suburbs according to a source in the Pentagon.

"Okay Russian soldiers, whose war I totally don't support, it's time for you to close that 240km gap and cut off the khokh- er...Ukrainian nationalist forces in Donbas!"

[Gaidax]

He reportedly suffered a heart attack.

Hey what're the symptoms of Novichok poisoning again? Just curious.

Lead poisoning from the bullet in the brain.

Happens sometimes.

[Jessicka]

I think the point was that there is nothing stopping Russia from stopping hostilities. Ukraine isn't interested in conquering Russia....they just want the Russians to go home and stay there.

For sure, though I was reading it according to the current situation where Russia are trying to drop back and consolidate to focus on Donbas.

[Mihalik]

Russia has reportedly given up on trying to capture Kyiv for the time being after a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed them back in the Kyiv suburbs according to a source in the Pentagon.

You Westerners just don't understand.

It was all really part of the plan, every soldier and piece of equipment we lost! We aren't failing...we're winning differently.

This is a rather obscure WH40K reference, but Putinstans are doing a Games Workshop here...Abbadon the Harmless didn't fail with his 12 Black Crusades...it was all just part of plan!

- - - Updated - - -

Lead poisoning from the bullet in the brain.

Happens sometimes.

It was probably a heart attack...Can you imagine having to meet Putin day after day and break to him the news about the most recent epic fail of the day? You never know if today's meeting will be the one that ends with you falling out of a window and having a piano drop on you. To be honest the stress would get to anyone.

[AntiFascistVoter]

Putin's blood is in the water... now even France is feeling feisty!



Macron says France will spearhead operation to evacuate Mariupol ‘Exceptional humanitarian operation’ will be discussed with Putin within days, French president says.


*Private Hudson Voice* Right, right. Somebody said "alien" "baguette bombs" she thought they said "illegal alien" baguettes and signed up!

[P for Pancetta]

It was probably a heart attack...Can you imagine having to meet Putin day after day and break to him the news about the most recent epic fail of the day? You never know if today's meeting will be the one that ends with you falling out of a window and having a piano drop on you. To be honest the stress would get to anyone.

And he's getting scapegoated for the disaster. If you've seen the video where the head of the FSB gets scolded by Putin for very carefully trying to say that he disagrees with Putin's ideas I think it's very understandable someone getting a heart attack if you'd have to tell a maniac like Putin such devastating news.

[zealo]

Why should Russia be content being mere "gas station" to EU?

No real reason why Russia from Russia’s perspective should be content with such an economy.

That however does not mean Russia deserves a bunch of colonies in eastern europe unopposed just because of what the soviet union were. The Russia of today has not earned a position that influential in europe.

Maybe it could if it weren’t such a corrupt kleptocracy, but that’s speaking in hypotheticals.

[Corvus]

Putin signs a new law allowing people to be imprisoned for 15 years for spreading 'false news' about Russian embassies and overseas organisations.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share

[Breccia]

Hey what're the symptoms of Novichok poisoning again?

Displeasing Putin.

[Corvus]

This may explain some recent activity - Russia has set up a new troll factory to combat 'misinformation' about Ukraine. Operation Cyber Front Z.

https://olgalautman.substack.com/p/o...m_medium=email

[Edge-]

This may explain some recent activity - Russia has set up a new troll factory to combat 'misinformation'about Ukraine. Operation Cyber Front Z.

https://olgalautman.substack.com/p/o...m_medium=email

This one really gets me. Absolutely mad that these kids get paid to lay about on beanbag cushions shitposting on the internet.

[Breccia]

So at this point, we've all heard that Russia is pulling back from Kyiv. This AP article has some experts discussing why.

French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking in Brussels, said “it’s too soon to say” whether the Russians have changed their approach. “It shows very clearly that in any case, a (Russian) operation led simultaneously on all sides was thwarted by the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people. That’s what we see for several days.”

Stephen Biddle, a professor of international and public affairs at Columbia Universitywho has studied U.S. wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, said it’s difficult to decipher Moscow’s intent from Friday’s statement.

“It’s plausible that they’re basically trying to ratchet their perceived war aims down to something they’ve already accomplished,” he said, referring to their existing hold on parts of the Donbas. It’s also possible, he said, that they’ve decided they began the war with the wrong approach, with combat forces spread too thin across too many parts of the country. In that case, they might now try to regroup with a central focus on the Donbas and make that the new starting point for an offensive they could later broaden.

Loren Thompson, a defense analyst at the Lexington Institute, a Washington think tank, said Putin might be recalibrating.

“Moscow may be looking for a way out of its Ukraine quagmire,” he said in an email. “Focusing its military goals on control of the Donbas could be a way of scaling back without admitting defeat.”

That last one seems viable to me, but would still be an admission of defeat. I realize that Shalcker recently said

Because aggressors generally have goals in war.
And people usually start wars with no intention to stop until they achieve them, one way or another.

which means that either
a) Putin is incompetent, or
b) Putin always intended to attack Kyiv and not succeed...which means Putin is incompetent too, I guess.

But everyone with reason and common sense, and who doesn't have a gun to their head, should instead consider the option that Russia -- demonstrating how poorly they planned and executed and didn't even pack cold weather clothing in February -- is, in fact edging slowly towards the door.

IF so...what's next?

1) Ukraine, angry as fuck, pursues them.
2) What several people have said, but Putin could withdraw and concentrate his forced in a piece of Ukraine that he can claim was the goal the whole time, except of course it isn't since he also said he wanted to get rid of Nazis and he attacked Kyiv proving he's lying. In his new position, Putin re-starts talks for the...seventh? time...and tries to get Ukraine to agree to have another piece sawn off.
3) Ukraine takes the opportunity to charge Crimea, partially to get their country back, partially to kick Putin in the balls in public.
4) Other countries, emboldened by Putin's pants around his ankles, take a few more covert liberties and/or more blatantly supply Ukraine with weapons, as they see the chance for Ukraine's long slow loss turn into a stalemate or even a victory

Or, it could be something else. What do you think about Putin's admissio of failure and cowardly retreat? Let's keep the conversation going with turnip-free breath.

[Polyxo]

Putin's blood is in the water... now even France is feeling feisty!



Macron says France will spearhead operation to evacuate Mariupol ‘Exceptional humanitarian operation’ will be discussed with Putin within days, French president says.


*Private Hudson Voice* Right, right. Somebody said "alien" "baguette bombs" she thought they said "illegal alien" baguettes and signed up!

Honestly, if nuclear weapons were somehow off the table, and France really wanted it, I think they could take Russia alone.

[PACOX]

This may explain some recent activity - Russia has set up a new troll factory to combat 'misinformation' about Ukraine. Operation Cyber Front Z.

https://olgalautman.substack.com/p/o...m_medium=email

What news are yall getting from Russia? Russia news is generally propaganda, in that case its banned, and that's about it. Neutral sources are few and far in between. No one, understandably, wants to report any news that Russia might take as 'good' and you can't trust what Russia reports.

[Collegeguy]

Russian media get in a shouting match on state tv over the failures in Ukraine.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia...res-in-ukraine

In addition some were saying the Russian military would have to run Ukraine for 2 generations to 're-educate' the population.

I can't believe this conversation took place. Propaganda is out of control if they think Russia could survive even 2 years of this.

[Deus Mortis]

No generals died so far. Gerasimov is relatively common surname; the guy who died wasn't general despite having same name.

So this was the last reply you left for me. Do you still believe this and how do you feel that a 7th General has now died? And as I brought up last time, only 1 general has died on the US side since 9/11. In closing I will leave you with this beautiful picture, please send it to your boss for me.

[PACOX]

The claim is all the other shit was to weaken Ukraine so they could take Donbass. It’s something only someone paid in turnips would believe.

That claim is absolutely ridiculous but rumor is that that reason Putin decided to Invade the entire country instead of east Ukraine where he could have at least exploited pro-Russian support was because he actually believed Russia had more support in western Ukraine. Whether he believed his own bullshit or was fed bad information, we won't know until afterwards if ever, but it is a thought that some analysts think is credible. Supposedly the theory is backed up by Russian intelligence reports and how someone like Putin who doesn't believe in the legitimacy of Ukraine might interpret Ukrainian politics. Long story short Putin might have actually thought Russia would have faced less resistance thus had an opportunity to easily roll over Kyiv - which absolutely would make shoring up eastern Ukraine holdings a lot easier in 'peace' talks.


Back in the real world, obviously its all insane and delusional. Clearly Russia failed at reading the room countless times. Their m strategic blunders do such that had completely irrational expectations and goals...some of that stuff they do actually believe. People believe in a lot irrational and 'obviously wrong' stuff. All you have to do is look across the political aisle. Now imagine a group that would make many American conservatives (socially) appear liberal.

[Kaleredar]

That claim is absolutely ridiculous but rumor is that that reason Putin decided to Invade the entire country instead of east Ukraine where he could have at least exploited pro-Russian support was because he actually believed Russia had more support in western Ukraine. Whether he believed his own bullshit or was fed bad information, we won't know until afterwards if ever, but it is a thought that some analysts think is credible. Supposedly the theory is backed up by Russian intelligence reports and how someone like Putin who doesn't believe in the legitimacy of Ukraine might interpret Ukrainian politics. Long story short Putin might have actually thought Russia would have faced less resistance thus had an opportunity to easily roll over Kyiv - which absolutely would make shoring up eastern Ukraine holdings a lot easier in 'peace' talks.


Back in the real world, obviously its all insane and delusional. Clearly Russia failed at reading the room countless times. Their m strategic blunders do such that had completely irrational expectations and goals...some of that stuff they do actually believe. People believe in a lot irrational and 'obviously wrong' stuff. All you have to do is look across the political aisle. Now imagine a group that would make many American conservatives (socially) appear liberal.

My guess is that he had a shock and awe campaign of trying to startle Ukraine into some form of easy surrender of some territory Putin desired, likely with the added goals of scaring them into some form of disarmament (for easier future Russian territory acquisitions) and likely a complete swearing off of joining NATO. (Again, to ensure they remained largely defenseless.) I'm going to assume that their "Ukraine doesn't immediately fold" contingency plan was basically to just ram all their forces in towards Kyiv, and they thought such a thing would be adequate to force the matter: That zelensky would flee or capitulate and the Ukrainians would dissolve in terror, and that such a thing would take a few weeks at most.

I think their failure is twofold: 1) Ukraine putting up a hell of a better fight than they expected, due both to Ukrainian resolve and the utter state of disarray that's become apparent in the Russian military machine that's put Ukraine on a much more even foot with Russia and 2) The rest of the world not just idly sitting by in apathy. If we still had a Russian sympathizing moron like Trump in the white house, these past few months might have gone very differently on an international level. Perhaps Putin thought that he had adequately pro-russianized the US with four years of Trump. Perhaps he thought that he could threaten the EU with energy dependence. Either way, yet another grievous miscalculation on Russia's part, and one that's basically doomed Russia the longer they stay in conflict.


As you point out, however, these things are all predicated upon Russia, the government that lies through its teeth every chance it gets, believing things that simply weren't the case. And the con man is always in the most trouble when he starts believing his own con.

[PhaelixWW]

My guess is that he had a shock and awe campaign of trying to startle Ukraine into some form of easy surrender of some territory Putin desired, likely with the added goals of scaring them into some form of disarmament (for easier future Russian territory acquisitions) and likely a complete swearing off of joining NATO. (Again, to ensure they remained largely defenseless.) I'm going to assume that their "Ukraine doesn't immediately fold" contingency plan was basically to just ram all their forces in towards Kyiv, and they thought such a thing would be adequate to force the matter: That zelensky would flee or capitulate and the Ukrainians would dissolve in terror, and that such a thing would take a few weeks at most.

I think their failure is twofold: 1) Ukraine putting up a hell of a better fight than they expected, due both to Ukrainian resolve and the utter state of disarray that's become apparent in the Russian military machine that's put Ukraine on a much more even foot with Russia and 2) The rest of the world not just idly sitting by in apathy. If we still had a Russian sympathizing moron like Trump in the white house, these past few months might have gone very differently on an international level. Perhaps Putin thought that he had adequately pro-russianized the US with four years of Trump. Perhaps he thought that he could threaten the EU with energy dependence. Either way, yet another grievous miscalculation on Russia's part, and one that's basically doomed Russia the longer they stay in conflict.


As you point out, however, these things are all predicated upon Russia, the government that lies through its teeth every chance it gets, believing things that simply weren't the case. And the con man is always in the most trouble when he starts believing his own con.

Back near the beginning of the invasion, I said this:

Zelensky staying is the worst scenario for them, because it's causing the resistance to be even tougher...

I don't know if Ukraine gets as much aid as it's getting if it doesn't have a visible Zelensky to rally international news around.

...because it's important to note just how much of an effect Zelensky has had in garnering that aid and preventing international apathy. So I'd add that to your list of failures.

The other important thing is that Russia has basically spent the last 8 years hardening their target. Things would have been better for Russia if they'd kept moving in after taking Crimea in 2014, or even if they'd just rolled in right after Trump was sworn into office in 2017. But now, Ukrainian troops have spent those 8 years being trained by the best militaries in the world, and have been primed specifically to fight Russian troops, essentially.

And then, of course, there's Xi Jinping's trolling, asking Putin to wait until after the Olympics... when the snow started to melt and the land turned to mud. That was a huge blunder.

Wow, so many failures to choose from.

[Corvus]

Saw someone raise an interesting point - Ukraine is only meant to have 18 TB2 drones so how did Russia shoot down 35 of them?