Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shalcker]

Bullshit. Europe wasn’t moving with any urgency toward being energy independent from Russia. Until you decided Ukraine was yours.

Which is exactly my argument.

[PhaelixWW]

In military matters you can do a lot more then "point out and say".

USSR and USA managed to reach agreements despite being bitter rivals.

With Russia US left every treaty that allowed for checks and balances.

I guess Russia was forced to invade and commit war crimes, eh?

How's Russian participation in international organizations providing "checks and balances" now, bee-tee-dubs?

[Gabriel]

In military matters you can do a lot more then "point out and say".

USSR and USA managed to reach agreements despite being bitter rivals.

With Russia US left every treaty that allowed for checks and balances.

USSR was a titan. russia is an abortion. There is no reason for USA to treat russia as an equal.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Which is exactly my argument.

It's not a good argument.

[Rasulis]

Chinese are taking notes for Taiwan - there will be "defensive" weapon supplies and little else.

One difference between Ukraine and Taiwan - Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) and Gallium Nitride (GaN) based military grade chips. Which are heavily used in US military and aerospace applications.

Taiwan's WIN Semiconductor foundries produced 79.2% of the global wafer supply for these chips. Followed by Tainan-based AWSC, California-based GCS and Hsinchu-based Wavetek. Together, the three Taiwanese firms hold almost 92% of the global market production of these chips.

The US will do more than just provide defensive weapons to Taiwan.

[dextersmith]

That doesn't make any sense.

But it does. ie. too lazy to seek alternative.

Have you ever read 1984 by George Orwell? It's about a dystopia that iirc has everything in common with today's Russia. Even basic things like chocolate is scarce. The scariest thing is, Russians are living that nightmarish reality but you're cheering on Putin.

[Kaleredar]

But it does. ie. too lazy to seek alternative.

Have you ever read 1984 by George Orwell? It's about a dystopia that iirc has everything in common with today's Russia. Even basic things like chocolate is scarce. The scariest thing is, Russians are living that nightmarish reality but you're cheering on Putin.

Now now now that's not an entirely accurate comparison.

When the countries in 1984 waged war on one another, they were in total control of what was happening. This is clearly not the case for Russia.

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One difference between Ukraine and Taiwan - Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) and Gallium Nitride (GaN) based military grade chips. Which are heavily used in US military and aerospace applications.

Taiwan's WIN Semiconductor foundries produced 79.2% of the global wafer supply for these chips. Followed by Tainan-based AWSC, California-based GCS and Hsinchu-based Wavetek. Together, the three Taiwanese firms hold almost 92% of the global market production of these chips.

The US will do more than just provide defensive weapons to Taiwan.

While him attempting to deflect to China is neither here nor there, it's also worth noting that Taiwan is on an island, which vastly complicates an invasion and makes it far more difficult to conceal.

While it's not a known factor of whether China's military is as incompetent as Russia's, Russia had a hard enough time just marching troops in a straight line into a country they share a land border with.

[dextersmith]

Also, just to be clear, if things continue the way they are, this might be the beginning of the end of Russia as you know it.

Does he know that he won't be able to post here anymore if Putin enforces that Russia-only internet he talked about building 2 weeks ago? And who would they hack for fun then?

[Rasulis]

Now now now that's not an entirely accurate comparison.

When the countries in 1984 waged war on one another, they were in total control of what was happening. This is clearly not the case for Russia.

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While him attempting to deflect to China is neither here nor there, it's also worth noting that Taiwan is on an island, which vastly complicates an invasion and makes it far more difficult to conceal.

While it's not a known factor of whether China's military is as incompetent as Russia's, Russia had a hard enough time just marching troops in a straight line into a country they share a land border with.

I was only referring to the expected level of US support in case of a Taiwan invasion. Taiwan semiconductor industry heavily underwrites US armed forces technological development. The currently under construction TSMC 5-nm foundry in AZ will cost 12 billion dollar - the equivalent of USS Gerald R. Ford carrier. TSMC newest 3-nm foundry cost over 100 billion. There is a reason why we let Taiwan build all these advanced foundries. They are freaking expensive. On top of that, many of their foundries are on the US DoD Trusted Foundry Program.

[Makabreska]

I dunno man, every time Shalcker is back from vaycay, this entire thread ceases to exist with this constant back and forth. Even mods participate. If his intentions are to nuke any discussion then he does an admirable work.

[Polyxo]

Been tried before. Didn't go well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_invasion_of_Russia

Problem is not necessarily with beating the Russians. It's beating Russia (the fucking land itself). As long as you don't try and invade Russia, you can beat 'em.

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Tell us again how you're totally not invading Ukraine. How there's zero chance for that happening.

Lie to me Shillcker. Lie to me.

Considering the compulsive lying from Russia, odds are that whatever you say the opposite is true.

Yeah, but that was then, this is now.

[Themius]

Imagine Putin seriously, not as "propaganda", thinking "NATO has bases in Ukraine in all but the name - they just renamed them 'missions'; they develop biological weapons with American help; Ukrainian authorities nurture and arm Nazis there, and America clearly want to use them to attack Russia; Zelensky openly declares he might ignore Budapest Memorandum and drop Ukrainian non-nuclear status... what can i do to stop them???"

His own intelligence apparatus clearly confirmed his fears.

And even if he was wrong in those assumptions EU or US made no real effort to dispel them - "you're wrong, we aren't planning anything, honest!" didn't cut it.

And neither did Ukraine.

NATO is a defensive pact

If a woman joins the neighbourhood wife beater defence league, and it upsets her wife beating husband, because if he beats her then people will defend her... you realise the husband has no legs to stand on.

[Shalcker]

There are plenty of LNG transport vessels. The global fleet size has been increasing annually since 2010 to meet the US increased production and China's increasing demand. At just under 700 vessels, it is now double what it was in 2010. It is still increasing at around 5% per year. Including loading/unloading, transatlantic transport between the Gulf facilities and EU countries is about 10 – 15 days. Accounting for maintenance down time, a single vessel could easily make 10 round trips in a year.

I'm looking at LNG fleet capacity is ~94 million m3 in 2020 (probably around ~100 million m3 right now if rate of increase is about the same) and that seems like not enough for "ten trips per year" to hit anywhere close to actual LNG deliveries (1 bcm per year? seems awfully low), so clearly i'm missing something.

Could you just tell me, what is real yearly transit capacity of tanker fleet? To see how strained it would get if it would need to carry extra load equal to current Russian pipeline gas?

20% of all European LNG in 2021 also came from Russia (and i'm not sure if that included exchange schemes where tanker with Russian gas simply becomes "US gas from US company" while another tanker closer to Russian recipients in turn becomes "Russian" or just direct Russian sales).

Floating transfer terminals could be a short-term solution until EU countries have a chance to build permanent jetty-based terminals. They cost a fraction of land-based terminals. Without the need for large civil works, they can be operational in a short amount of time. The system is assembled using inter-connected floating barges using cryogenic floating hoses to transfer the LNG to the shore. Germany already ordered 3, France 1 and Italy 2. They are expected to be operational in around 12 months. Much shorter timeline than 3 – 5 years for a standard terminal.

Ok, so 6 terminals total, operational in ideal circumstances somewhere around end of this year, with each providing up to umm... 8? 10? bcm per year.
So, up to 60 bcm

Existing LNG infrastructure allows to import 237 bcm - note that some of that capacity was already used (average of 90% was in use this winter).

Total of ~300 bcm (let's be generous).

US plans to provide additional 15 bcm this year then 50 bcm next years up to 2030.

Qatar i think offered to get 6% of their exports up to 7% ? So i guess up to 20% increase on their side? Clearly not going to come close to US commitment.

...and the rest has to come from Asian market. Which isn't going to take it lying down.

Pipelines and compressor stations are the biggest obstacle. Moreso for the landlocked power generating and manufacturing facilities. Engineers are creative. They'll figure something out.

There... just doesn't seem to be enough spare gas for EU.

Existing pledges will fill those "emergency floating transfer units" and that will be basically it?

So, about third of previous Russian ~180 bcm of pipeline gas will be potentially covered by new LNG?

That's it?

[Zaydin]

In military matters you can do a lot more then "point out and say".

USSR and USA managed to reach agreements despite being bitter rivals.

With Russia US left every treaty that allowed for checks and balances.

How long do you think the Russian people will tolerate their husbands, fathers, brothers and sons getting killed or maimed in Ukraine for nothing due to Tzar Putins delusions of grandeur and his insane entitled belief that Russia has right to restore the Russian Empire? Especially given that he has gotten more Russian soldiers killed in one month than the Soviets lost in Afghanistan in ten years because he got high on his own supply?

[Shalcker]

I was only referring to the expected level of US support in case of a Taiwan invasion. Taiwan semiconductor industry heavily underwrites US armed forces technological development. The currently under construction TSMC 5-nm foundry in AZ will cost 12 billion dollar - the equivalent of USS Gerald R. Ford carrier. TSMC newest 3-nm foundry cost over 100 billion. There is a reason why we let Taiwan build all these advanced foundries. They are freaking expensive. On top of that, many of their foundries are on the US DoD Trusted Foundry Program.

There are alternative facilities being built in US.

Even if US wants to defend Taiwan it cannot afford to bet on their industry not being destroyed in the process (like it happens in Ukraine right now).

[Santti]

NATO is a defensive pact

If a woman joins the neighbourhood wife beater defence league, and it upsets her wife beating husband, because if he beats her then people will defend her... you realise the husband has no legs to stand on.

Just like with the "denazification" in Ukraine, the NATO whining is just a weak excuse. That's all it is.

Russia perfectly knows this invasion made NATO much more popular in the countries like Finland and Sweden, who are closer to joining than ever. They know any doubts whether or not NATO is necessary, are gone. Russia justified it's existence. They know that. Any whining towards how bad the NATO is, is just a distraction. An excuse.

[Azadina]

NATO is a defensive pact

If a woman joins the neighbourhood wife beater defence league, and it upsets her wife beating husband, because if he beats her then people will defend her... you realise the husband has no legs to stand on.

Bad example, because in Russia it's precisely the mans legal right to beat wife occasionally.

[Shalcker]

How long do you think the Russian people will tolerate their husbands, fathers, brothers and sons getting killed or maimed in Ukraine for nothing due to Tzar Putins delusions of grandeur and his insane entitled belief that Russia has right to restore the Russian Empire?

A few years seems like a safe bet. Even if discontent will grow over time.

Ukraine isn't likely to last that long.

Especially given that he has gotten more Russian soldiers killed in one month than the Soviets lost in Afghanistan in ten years because he got high on his own supply?

His military likely feeds him same data they provide on daily briefings.

Families of dead will get compensations and distinctions; law that survivors will be considered "military veterans" (with all associated benefits) is already signed. (and make no mistake, there were a lot of benefits added in previous years)

[ruwshtyb]

I was only referring to the expected level of US support in case of a Taiwan invasion. Taiwan semiconductor industry heavily underwrites US armed forces technological development. The currently under construction TSMC 5-nm foundry in AZ will cost 12 billion dollar - the equivalent of USS Gerald R. Ford carrier. TSMC newest 3-nm foundry cost over 100 billion. There is a reason why we let Taiwan build all these advanced foundries. They are freaking expensive. On top of that, many of their foundries are on the US DoD Trusted Foundry Program.

how is Chinese civil war "invasion"? Taiwan is officially part of PRC. How do you treat Chinese civil war as "invasion"? Do you mean Mao tsetung and CCP are the "invader" because they defeated KMT in the Chinese Civil War? (And Chinese Civil War is technically still ongoing.)

Or do you mean Abraham Lincoln was the "invader"?

[Azadina]

A few years seems like a safe bet. Even if discontent will grow over time.

Ukraine isn't likely to last that long.

His military likely feeds him same data they provide on daily briefings.

Families of dead will get compensations and distinctions; law that survivors will be considered "military veterans" (with all associated benefits) is already signed. (and make no mistake, there were a lot of benefits added in previous years)

They won't, when you're just retroactively firing them from military for dying, being captured, defecting, being "traitor", etc.