Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shadowferal]

Still it is huge threat. Because any miscommunication would result in WW3. For example an accident of military exercise.

And when has that happened? Which country has been stupid enough to invade a NATO nation?

[ruwshtyb]

And when has that happened? Which country has been stupid enough to invade a NATO nation?

I have said it is not necessarily an invasion. Maybe just miscommunication would be treated as invasion for NATO. Then boom, ww3 starts

[Poopymonster]

Umm...foreplay?

*unzips up Adidas tracksuit*

[PhaelixWW]

God, Russia should get rid of all its nuclear weapons...

Just think of how easy it would be to trigger WW3 with an accident or a military exercise!

[Shadowferal]

I have said it is not necessarily an invasion. Maybe just miscommunication would be treated as invasion for NATO. Then boom, ww3 starts

You're so full of childish shit.
Maybe a meteorite will hit too.

[Huehuecoyotl]

I have said it is not necessarily an invasion. Maybe just miscommunication would be treated as invasion for NATO. Then boom, ww3 starts

Sure, NATO will launch nukes because someone misses a comma on a postcard. What fucking planet are you on?

[ruwshtyb]

God, Russia should get rid of all its nuclear weapons...

Just think of how easy it would be to trigger WW3 with an accident or a military exercise!

Currently, Polish wants ww3 lol. They want to send troops to fight against russia

[Canpinter]

I have said it is not necessarily an invasion. Maybe just miscommunication would be treated as invasion for NATO. Then boom, ww3 starts

i mean obviously right, like Russia could have meant to send a happy birthday card to Poland but they mixed up what box it was in and accidentally bombed them instead. could happen to anyone really.

[PhaelixWW]

Currently, Polish wants ww3 lol. They want to send troops to fight against russia

I guess that's why Russia wants to "denazify" them, right?

[Poopymonster]

I guess that's why Russia wants to "denazify" them, right?

Next stop, let's denazify Israel!

[Kaleredar]

Still it is huge threat. Because any miscommunication would result in WW3. For example an accident of military exercise.

...which has not happened for the past 72 years of NATO's existence.


Like I said, many countries decided it makes sense to have friends in the world. Because sometimes, "the promises of peace" from standalone countries... like Russia... clearly can't be trusted. Why do you think Finland and Sweden are really thinking about joining NATO now?

Don't poke the wolves, and they won't come for you. Easy as that. Because saying "no, wolves, you should all split up!" really just sounds like you want the ability to hunt the wolves one by one without the risk of all of them coming at you.

[ruwshtyb]

I guess that's why Russia wants to "denazify" them, right?

I agree "Denazify" is definitely a part of Russia propaganda. However, Nato expansion being a threat is nowhere.

[Azadina]

Still it is huge threat. Because any miscommunication would result in WW3. For example an accident of military exercise.

Only Ruski military exercises cross into countries in which they are not welcome. No one else has this problem.

[Canpinter]

...which has not happened for the past 72 years of NATO's existence.


Like I said, many countries decided it makes sense to have friends in the world. Because sometimes, "the promises of peace" from standalone countries... like Russia... clearly can't be trusted. Why do you think Finland and Sweden are really thinking about joining NATO now?

Don't poke the wolves, and they won't come for you. Easy as that. Because saying "no, wolves, you should all split up!" really just sounds like you want the ability to hunt the wolves one by one without the risk of all of them coming at you.

given the state of the Russian military it might actually be a toss up between them and a medium sized pack of literal wolves

[PhaelixWW]

...which has not happened for the past 72 years of NATO's existence.

Yeah, the irony is palpable.

Remind me: how many countries has USSR/Russia invaded in the last 72 years? Or even just Russia in the last 30 years?

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However, Nato expansion being a threat is nowhere.

NATO expansion is demonstrably not a threat.

Russian expansion, on the other hand, is.

[D Luniz]

given the state of the Russian military it might actually be a toss up between them and a medium sized pack of literal wolves

likely cause of some russian general's death, cause arent there quite a few of them in the Chernobyl exclusion zone that Russia is using as a FOB

[ruwshtyb]

NATO expansion is demonstrably not a threat.

Russian expansion, on the other hand, is.

Serbia disagrees.

[Xyonai]

Russian soldiers release Ukraine town’s mayor and agree to leave after protests

A mayor in a Ukrainian town occupied by Russian forces has been released from captivity and the soldiers have agreed to leave after a mass protest by residents.

Slavutych, a northern town close to the Chernobyl nuclear site, was taken by Russian forces but stun grenades and overhead fire failed to disperse unarmed protesters on its main square on Saturday.

The crowd demanded the release of mayor Yuri Fomichev, who had been taken prisoner by the Russian troops.

A man walks through a bombed-out street in Mykolaiv.
Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 31 of the invasion
Read more
Attempts by Russian troops to intimidate the growing protest failed and on Saturday afternoon Fomichev was let go by his captors.

An agreement was made that the Russians would leave the town if those with arms handed them over to the mayor with a dispensation for those with hunting rifles.

Fomichev told those protesting that the Russians had agreed to withdraw “if there are no [Ukrainian] military in the city”.

The deal struck, the mayor said, was that the Russians would make a search for Ukrainian soldiers and arms and then depart. One Russian checkpoint outside the city would remain.

The incident highlights the struggle that Russian forces have faced even where they have had military victories.

Slavutych, population 25,000, sits just outside the so-called exclusion zone around Chernobyl – which in 1986 was the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster. The plant itself was seized by Russian forces soon after the start of the 24 February invasion.

“The Russians opened fire into the air. They threw flash-bang grenades into the crowd. But the residents did not disperse, on the contrary, more of them showed up,” said Oleksandr Pavlyuk, a governor of the Kyiv region in which Slavutych sits.

[PhaelixWW]

Serbia disagrees.

NATO didn't start a war in Serbia...

[Breccia]

anyone know how the supply chain parts needed to maintain them is holding up?

Yes. Poorly.

At the start of the war, Boeing and Airbnb, sorry, Airbus halted the standard supply parts. Funny story: when they said that, Russia had already ordered sixty planes from them which will no longer be delivered. "You should have seen that coming," the head of Boeing didn't say but could easily have, "We both worked with Trump. Not fulfiling contracts is par for the course for us."

The very next week, this article was published titled basically "Russia is running out of airplane parts, toothpaste and tampons". Well, no, the real headline is "Russian airlines may soon resort to 'cannibalizing' planes and creating a 'Frankenstein fleet' to keep Western-built planes flying".

Oleg Panteleev, head of Russian AviaPort analytical agency, said Russia could turn to seedy alternatives if inventory runs out, like unauthorized parts from China or under-the-table supplies from Iran.

"Of course, it would be good for Russia to find suppliers and partners in third countries who would be ready to ensure stable shipments of all necessary components," Panteleev told Reuters. "But if these countries say they are afraid of sanctions, Russia would need to search for foreign specialists and create a maintenance system at Russian factories."

The move to use potentially uncertified parts could create a "Frankenstein fleet," making Russian planes "worthless outside the former Soviet Union," Nick Cunningham, an analyst with Agency Partners, told Bloomberg.

Some analysts also worry about companies "cannibalizing" other planes on the ground, including those owned by lessors.

"It [Russia] will have to create a full-fledged maintenance system for some types of aircraft. But before that...it will need to cannibalise some aircraft for use as spare parts," Panteleev explained to Reuters.

Peter Walter, an industry consultant at IBA, echoed Panteleev, telling Bloomberg that he expects airlines to begin robbing planes on the ground in Russia "in order to keep the remainder of the fleet operational."

That article predicted, basically, the following correctly:

This article from March 10 quotes Russia as saying China isn't selling them parts. This follow-up article from March 11 shows Russia basically scrounging through other Asian countries for spare parts.

We also know Russia passed a set of "laws" that basically let them seize any planes that enter their airspace. It's...an interesting move, they'd already banned a bunch of countries from flying in, but I guess there were a few planes left over. But nothing about this law seems aimed at one type of plane, so, they're going to get a random grab bag of mostly commercial planes, which I guess they could scavenge for parts. (related: some Russians are afraid to fly out of Russia because they think other countries will ground them the same way...I don't think other countries have enacted such a law) Most people have given up getting their planes which are in Russia back.

Now, I honestly don't know how badly Russia needs airplane parts -- I'd like to believe their newly-renovated, top-of-the-line fleet of brand new airplanes will...what? They aren't? Russian planes crash a lot because of poor upkeep and use? Well, shit. I am led to believe commercial airplanes need extensive maintainance every few years because of how often they're run. I mean, duh, they're machines. Russia has something like 500 ready-to-go combat planes. Assuming even distribution, that's a plane needing significant upkeep every few days. Obviously there's a lot of variables here, and I'm giving Russian mechanics some credit here for keeping their planes aloft with duct tape and wishful thinking, but I'm also assuming they didn't happen to have large crates of spare parts just what they needed stocked up because they knew the war would cut off their supply, either.

I expect, by now, they've had only minor losses, two to eight planes grounded because the fighter jet equivalent of a distributor cap or spark plug is busted. Small losses can be waited out, while they hope to rummage around and find them under the seat cushions or glove box. But...if those losses pile up, at some point, they'll likely irreparably cannibalize, reducing not just their existing force but their maximum force.

All of which, of course, is over and above anything that crashes or is shot down. Y'all ain't getting those pieces back, comrade.

"What about commercial air flights?"

What about them? I mean, I expect Putin to cannibalize those, too, should be fun for the economy when the Russian delivery services can't get goods from Point A to Point B. But not right this second. But quite frankly, the rate at which Russian cargo and passengers get around Russia is a lesser concern when Russia is murdering Ukrainian civilians.