Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Forogil]

“The Kremlin vowed Monday to retaliate if Britain seized Russian oligarchs’ London properties as part of sweeping sanctions aimed at deterring Moscow from invading Ukraine.”

It may be good in itself, but what I find worrying is that Johnson tries to use this conflict to deflect from partygate.

[Kuntantee]

In case you didn't know, Russia already invaded Ukraine in 2014. Reasonable, LMFAO.

I know, but that changes pretty much nothing. Technically, invasion of Georgia was also unreasonable but it happened. The pattern should be obvious by now, that if they invade, they will win. Lavrov was giving signals of diplomacy, maybe it isn't BS. Ukraine must seek this option.

Ukraine must know they are alone defending their borders and we cannot help them.

[Easo]

Their fears of western European aggression may be highly unlikely to ever come true, but that doesn't make them entirely unfounded, I think they would probably be less afraid of western Europe invading them if it wasn't for western Europe's historical habit of invading them (looking at you here France and Germany). I mean if some nearby countries kept invading me and getting millions of my people killed I'd be suspicious of them too.

On the flipside though, the last time France invaded Russia was around the same time the USA were invading Canada (a conquest that went so amazingly well that the Canadian counterattack saw the white house on fire lol) and you don't see Canadians paranoid of imminent US invasion.

I think the west goofed big time by not asking Russia to join NATO in the 90's, that would have proven NATO's history as a "lets gang up on Russia" club was over and probably have prevented Putin ever getting elected in the first place, they would be a pretty useful ally against Chinese expansion right now...

Except the fucking France and Germany are fucking democractic, not led by dictators/emperors, thus no one does that anymore. It's a stupidly huge difference which people like Shalcker do not get because it requires them to actually think beyond blaming West for their issues. I get it, blaming West is much easier than marching on Kremlin and removing the wannabe Tsar, but alas...

Curious that countries there see Russia as potential counterweight and not US... probably something to do with US killing millions of their people.
Some left perspective:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8KhRkbEld

Really? Is that the best you could come up with? What does the Russia as a potential counterweight to China (hah, funny, remember the talk about them being your allies/partners?) have to do with China being a bully and disliked by countries bordering it?

I know, but that changes pretty much nothing. Technically, invasion of Georgia was also unreasonable but it happened. The pattern should be obvious by now, that if they invade, they will win. Lavrov was giving signals of diplomacy, maybe it isn't BS. Ukraine must seek this option.

Ukraine must know they are alone defending their borders and we cannot help them.

Yeah yeah, just bend over, got it. Who will be next asked to do that and should they too just bend over as well?

[bladeXcrasher]

I know, but that changes pretty much nothing. Technically, invasion of Georgia was also unreasonable but it happened. The pattern should be obvious by now, that if they invade, they will win. Lavrov was giving signals of diplomacy, maybe it isn't BS. Ukraine must seek this option.

Ukraine must know they are alone defending their borders and we cannot help them.

By your own metric they have already been unreasonable and invaded Ukraine. You acted as if up until 2022 Russia has been reasonable and only if they invade Ukraine would they not be reasonable. The only thing Russia has proven is they can't be trusted to act reasonably.

[Fuiking]

By your own metric they have already been unreasonable and invaded Ukraine. You acted as if up until 2022 Russia has been reasonable and only if they invade Ukraine would they not be reasonable. The only thing Russia has proven is they can't be trusted to act reasonably.

kuntantee is turkish irc.

[Kuntantee]

By your own metric they have already been unreasonable and invaded Ukraine. You acted as if up until 2022 Russia has been reasonable and only if they invade Ukraine would they not be reasonable. The only thing Russia has proven is they can't be trusted to act reasonably.

Bigger powers always do unreasonable stuff. USA invaded Iraq based on false premises. I remember most of EU and Turkey being against it. Meaning most of NATO was against it, didn't change a damn thing. I am simply being realistic. Russia was also unreasonable in Crimea, but Crimea is gone. They were also unreasonable at Ossetia. Guess what? Ossetia is gone. Accept and move on. What they have now, the problem at hand, is that Russia is threatening to invade again. Address their security problems with diplomacy if you can. Russia did not attempt to negotiate Crimea, but it seems they are signaling that now so take the chance, if you can. I vaguely remember Russia signaling some room for diplomacy* in Georgia too, but Georgia was too set on NATO helping them as far as I remember. Well, I guess that did not turn out as they expected, to say the least. The good thing is, NATO is more transparent on what kind of support they're willing to commit nowadays...

It does not matter if this is illegal and it does not matter if Russia is unreasonable in our view. If they commit, a third to half of the Ukraine is gone and as far as I know, the eastern parts of Ukraine, the parts closer to Russia, are the richer parts. It would be a disaster for them.

This is a path I suggest not because I like it but because I know NATO will not support Ukraine. Sending military hardware is extremely unlikely to change the course of a potential conflict.

* When I say diplomacy, most people think following international law/trying to find a common legal ground but that's not how it works for countries like Russia, China or USA. What I mean by diplomacy is addressing their "security" concerns at your expense.

- - - Updated - - -

kuntantee is turkish irc.

Yes, I am from the only country, next to USA, that tries to counter Russia in three distinct fronts, while rest of the NATO, aside from UK, is shilling Russia.

[Easo]

Yes, I am from the only country, next to USA, that tries to counter Russia in three distinct fronts, while rest of the NATO, aside from UK, is shilling Russia.

Baltics and Poland shilling for Russia? Fascinating.
And who, exactly, bought S-400's, at the time when relations with Russia were going down the shitter? As for different fronts, whole 3 even? Riiiight... Make it 4, don't be shy.

[Flarelaine]

Turkey has in fact supported Azerbaijan against Russia's little friend Armenia and shot down Russian tanks in Syria.

[PfeffermintShake]

Looks like Le Petite Triple Entente is moving ahead.




Putin really backed himself into a corner concerning his home audience. Can he deescalate and manage the public disapproval?

[bladeXcrasher]

Looks like Le Petite Triple Entente is moving ahead.




Putin really backed himself into a corner concerning his home audience. Can he deescalate and manage the public disapproval?

The Russian public approval or European public approval?

[JohnBrown1917]

Turkey has in fact supported Azerbaijan against Russia's little friend Armenia and shot down Russian tanks in Syria.

Turkey does love anything to fuck with Armenians.

[caervek]

Turkey has in fact supported Azerbaijan against Russia's little friend Armenia and shot down Russian tanks in Syria.

I didn't follow the Syrian war that closely but if I remember right it was a Russian aeroplane they shot down

[uuuhname]

I don't care what happens. not that anything looks to be happening anyway. the fact the MSM is running articles crying about "US's global prestige being on the line if Biden doesn't start a war over the Ukraine!" is evidence enough this is all manufactured consent to get us into another war because Raytheon Execs need to buy another island off of Fiji to diddle minors on.

[Forogil]

I don't care what happens. not that anything looks to be happening anyway. the fact the MSM is running articles crying about "US's global prestige being on the line if Biden doesn't start a war over the Ukraine!"

Can you point to those articles? I'm clearly not reading the same MSM.

[Zaydin]

You know, it's kind of funny that Putin is insisting he doesn't want war over Ukraine but that the west does when Secretary of State Anthony Blinken pointed out the obvious: If you don't want war, withdraw your troops from Ukraines borders.

Of course that would run counter to Putins strongman image and be seen as backing down and showing weakness and appearing weak is something Putin desperately does not want to be seen as

[PACOX]

You know, it's kind of funny that Putin is insisting he doesn't want war over Ukraine but that the west does when Secretary of State Anthony Blinken pointed out the obvious: If you don't want war, withdraw your troops from Ukraines borders.

Of course that would run counter to Putins strongman image and be seen as backing down and showing weakness and appearing weak is something Putin desperately does not want to be seen as

You can't see how its just people just talking over each other pretend they are innocent? Why is Ukraine important? NATO (the US) wants spread its influence. Russia doesn't want the US in its back yard. Both claims are valid depending on where you live. It's Cold War era geopolitical theater and would be much if people honest.

NATO
“Fuck you Russia. Yeah NATO is going push you back into a corner, get good and cry more Putin“

Russia
“No way and hell will I let you just plop your toys off my border”

Both

“Fuck the people of Ukraine, the important people are talking”

If everything was reported more honestly the conflict would be resolved a lot quicker. But then who would profit besides the people who actually have to live in the area?

[PfeffermintShake]

Putin is looking for a way out. Really looking more and more like Russia made demands, issued ultimatums but was basically bluffing. Rejected again and again, Putin is now trying to deescalate. Quite the TV annpuncement.

The Russian president seemed to be trying to ratchet down tensions in the standoff over Ukraine, while claiming the United States was seeking to goad Moscow into an invasion.


“The big surprise for Putin is that he has met an unwavering adversary in Biden — a garrulous, genial career politician who, in this confrontation, has been surprisingly resolute.”

Explains why Putin was so invested in stopping Dems in 2016 and 2020.

[Corvus]

This isn't just about Ukraine. It is just the focal point of it all. Putin wants NATO to abandon all of Eastern Europe and not doing so is somehow 'goading' Russia into war.

[Easo]

I didn't follow the Syrian war that closely but if I remember right it was a Russian aeroplane they shot down

They did, it ended with, IIRC, memey tomato import to Russia ban and threat of cutting off Russian tourists to Turkey, leading to Erdogan obviously shaking hands with Putin and everybody being the best friends again culminating with S-400 purchase.
P.S.
Azeris also got hit with tomato ban. The Small Turkey, and all that.

[Flarelaine]

I didn't follow the Syrian war that closely but if I remember right it was a Russian aeroplane they shot down

Maybe? It's a quagmire down there. It was some sort of Russian hardware.