Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Mekh]

You are trying too hard.

Not even Shalcker seems to care though.

[Shadowferal]

What does some MREs gotta do with it? You have lost me.

All part of the problem; As Russia’s Military Stumbles, Its Adversaries Take Note

President Vladimir Putin could still reduce cities in Ukraine to rubble, officials say. But European countries say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past.

Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — Europe’s largest land war since 1945 — the image of a Russian military as one that other countries should fear, let alone emulate, has been shattered.

Ukraine has shot down military transport planes carrying Russian paratroopers, downed helicopters and blown holes in Russia’s convoys using American anti-tank missiles and armed drones supplied by Turkey, these officials said, citing confidential U.S. intelligence assessments.

The Russian soldiers have been plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages. Some troops have crossed the border with MREs (meals ready to eat) that expired in 2002, U.S. and other Western officials said, and others have surrendered and sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting.

And the Western governments that have spoken openly about Russia’s military failings are eager to spread the word to help damage Russian morale and bolster the Ukrainians.

But with each day that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holds out, the scenes of a frustrated Russia pounding, but not managing to finish off, a smaller opponent dominate screens around the world.

The result: Militaries in Europe that once feared Russia say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past.

That Russia has so quickly abandoned surgical strikes, instead killing civilians trying to flee, could damage Mr. Putin’s chances of winning a long-term war in Ukraine. The brutal tactics may eventually overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses, but they will almost certainly fuel a bloody insurgency that could bog down Russia for years, military analysts say. Most of all, Russia has exposed to its European neighbors and American rivals gaps in its military strategy that can be exploited in future battles.

“Today what I have seen is that even this huge army or military is not so huge,” said Lt. Gen. Martin Herem, Estonia’s chief of defense, during a news conference at an air base in northern Estonia with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. General Herem’s colleague and the air force chief, Brig. Gen. Rauno Sirk, in an interview with a local newspaper, was even more blunt in his assessment of the Russian air force. “If you look at what’s on the other side, you’ll see that there isn’t really an opponent anymore,” he said.
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Ouch!
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“The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military,” said Andrei V. Kozyrev, the foreign minister for Russia under Boris Yeltsin, in a post on Twitter. “Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military.”

During a trip through the Eastern European countries that fear they could next face Mr. Putin’s military, General Milley has consistently been asked the same questions. Why have the Russians performed so poorly in the early days of the war? Why did they so badly misjudge the Ukrainian resistance?

“It’s a little bit early to draw any definitive lessons learned,” he added. “But one of the lessons that’s clearly evident is that the will of the people, the will of the Ukrainian people, and the importance of national leadership and the fighting skills of the Ukrainian army has come through loud and clear.”

Russian battlefield defeats, and mounting casualties, also have an impact.

“Having the Ukrainians just wreck your airborne units, elite Russian units, has to be devastating for Russian morale,” said Frederick W. Kagan, an expert on the Russian military who leads the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. “Russian soldiers have to be looking at this and saying, ‘What the hell have we gotten ourselves into?’”

[Easo]

As for that Azerbaijan thing - they have pulled back. Probably a repeat can be expected again in couple of months, then again and again...

Not even Shalcker seems to care though.

Are you surprised? He was the one who told us like half a year/year ago that he only cares about those closest to him. Which is funny considering how much he defends Russia, yet cares so little for it.

Russians soldiers have been shooting themselves in the legs in order to desert before this video. Another intercepted conversation Russian soldiers search for "Ukranian ammunition" to shoot themselves in the legs and go to the hospital.
Get captured, and ask to be shot. It really is simple. This is also that war you talked about. Your expectations are naive.

Go and take a look at that video then ask yourself if they asked to get shot in the legs.

All part of the problem;

What does this wall of text gotta do with shooting POWs?

[Shadowferal]

Currently going around; Russian troops attack own commanding officer after suffering heavy losses

Russian troops reportedly attacked their own commanding officer by running him over with a tank after many in their brigade were killed amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsymbaliuk said in a post on Facebook that Russian Col. Yuri Medvedev was attacked after fighting in Ukraine left nearly half of the men in the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade dead, The Washington Post reported.

Tsymbaliuk said the brigade injured both of Medvedev's legs by hitting him with a tank, causing him to be hospitalized, according to the newspaper.

The incident occurred roughly 30 miles from Kyiv, in Makariv, Ukraine, the Post reported. The country reportedly retook the town this week after Russia gained control of it earlier in the war.

A senior Western official told the newspaper that he thinks Medvedev has died, saying the incident shows the low morale among the Russian troops in Ukraine.

He was killed “as a consequence of the scale of the losses taken by his own brigade,” the official said, according to the Post.

[Poopymonster]

Currently going around; Russian troops attack own commanding officer after suffering heavy losses

Russian troops reportedly attacked their own commanding officer by running him over with a tank after many in their brigade were killed amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsymbaliuk said in a post on Facebook that Russian Col. Yuri Medvedev was attacked after fighting in Ukraine left nearly half of the men in the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade dead, The Washington Post reported.

Tsymbaliuk said the brigade injured both of Medvedev's legs by hitting him with a tank, causing him to be hospitalized, according to the newspaper.

The incident occurred roughly 30 miles from Kyiv, in Makariv, Ukraine, the Post reported. The country reportedly retook the town this week after Russia gained control of it earlier in the war.

A senior Western official told the newspaper that he thinks Medvedev has died, saying the incident shows the low morale among the Russian troops in Ukraine.

He was killed “as a consequence of the scale of the losses taken by his own brigade,” the official said, according to the Post.

If you're gonna go after the CO, you kill them. Not cripple them. Crippled COs get you killed. Dead COs get #thoughtsandprayers.

[Shadowferal]

If you're gonna go after the CO, you kill them. Not cripple them. Crippled COs get you killed. Dead COs get #thoughtsandprayers.

Yea..I'm certain his dead body is a lot more well-thought of than his living self ever was.

[Torched]

https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1...2F20222240619d

"This isn't White Phosphorus, these are thermite incendiary submunitions which are in fact even worse. we've seen similar footage of these unguided 9M22S incendiary Grad rockets in use by the Russians in Syria countless times before"

Never heard of these before, can anyone confirm what these even are?

[AntiFascistVoter]

https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1...2F20222240619d

"This isn't White Phosphorus, these are thermite incendiary submunitions which are in fact even worse. we've seen similar footage of these unguided 9M22S incendiary Grad rockets in use by the Russians in Syria countless times before"

Never heard of these before, can anyone confirm what these even are?

Scroll down on your own link...

more about these kind of rockets in this piece by @David_Hambling


‘White Phosphorus’ Claimed To Be Used In Ukraine May Really Be Russian Napalm Weapon

[Magnagarde]

https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1...2F20222240619d

"This isn't White Phosphorus, these are thermite incendiary submunitions which are in fact even worse. we've seen similar footage of these unguided 9M22S incendiary Grad rockets in use by the Russians in Syria countless times before"

Never heard of these before, can anyone confirm what these even are?

These have been used by the RuaF in Syria for years, primarily against warehouses and weapon storages of the rebel factions and ISIS. It is basically rust and aluminum. While it is incendiary submunition(smaller container/device within a larger warhead, who separate), it isn't napalm.

[XDurionX]

These have been used by the RuaF in Syria for years, primarily against warehouses and weapon storages of the rebel factions and ISIS. It is basically rust and aluminum.

I assume russian forces have vast supplies of rust.

[Magnagarde]

I assume russian forces have vast supplies of rust.

The spring will shower the armoured carcases lying all over Ukraine. Rustgardia loading.

[Easo]

These have been used by the RuaF in Syria for years, primarily against warehouses and weapon storages of the rebel factions and ISIS. It is basically rust and aluminum. While it is incendiary submunition(smaller container/device within a larger warhead, who separate), it isn't napalm.

Plus they are also using illumination shells - which gives off the impression of white phosphorus.

[jonnysensible]

saw the kneecapping video, first advice dont commit war crimes, second advice if you are going to commit war crimes dont film it.

remember seeing Ukraine forces saying that artillery and missile launching crews would be given no quarter.

Looking at the infantry fighting vehicles that have been lost so far on the osint sites :

- 41 BMP-3s
- 15 BMD-4Ms (VDV)
- 58 BMD-2s (VDV)
- 108 BMP-2s
- 51 BTR-82As

The VDV have been taking serious losses and have done the brunt of the fighting, their units wont exist soon.

[Magnagarde]

Plus they are also using illumination shells - which gives off the impression of white phosphorus.

I read a report a few years back that the SAAF uses the illumination shells for ground strikes during the night, once the Russians strike the target. Since they lacked the capabilities to do ground sorties during nighttime, they'd use these as a way to guide them to their targets. They used this in Daraa and especially the Idlib flatlands, at least in the later stages of the conflict when Damascus was secured.

[Fugus]

So, anything of interest come up over the past 3 or 4 days? Haven't been willing to go over the back and forth with Shalcker on here and haven't been really paying a bunch of attention recently.

[Santti]

Apparently, Zelenskyi said that driving Russian forces out of Ukraine would trigger World War 3.

Like, how?

[Iphie]

So, anything of interest come up over the past 3 or 4 days? Haven't been willing to go over the back and forth with Shalcker on here and haven't been really paying a bunch of attention recently.

Just today the Ukrainian negotiating team announced 3 days of talks in Turkey starting Monday and Zelenskiy announced he's ready to discuss neutrality. The Finnish news reports that he understands that WWIII would be caused if they tried to expel Russia by force from Ukraine. (I'd link it but it's in Finnish, so I doubt very many people could read it outside of the Finns in this thread.)

Apparently, Zelenskyi said that driving Russian forces out of Ukraine would trigger World War 3.

Like, how?

I suspect he feels Russia will start throwing MWD and then NATO will interfere.

[Santti]

Just today the Ukrainian negotiating team announced 3 days of talks in Turkey starting Monday and Zelenskiy announced he's ready to discuss neutrality. The Finnish news reports that he understands that WWIII would be caused if they tried to expel Russia by force from Ukraine. (I'd link it but it's in Finnish, so I doubt very many people could read it outside of the Finns in this thread.)

I believe I just read them same thing.

https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/...nsodan/8388884

In case anyone is curious, but yeah, it's in Finnish.

But I just don't quite understand. Seems pretty far fetched, if you ask me.

The cynical in me... wait, I said that wrong.

The cynic that is me, is wondering if this is Ukraine starting to buckle under the pressure?

[Fugus]

Just today the Ukrainian negotiating team announced 3 days of talks in Turkey starting Monday and Zelenskiy announced he's ready to discuss neutrality. The Finnish news reports that he understands that WWIII would be caused if they tried to expel Russia by force from Ukraine. (I'd link it but it's in Finnish, so I doubt very many people could read it outside of the Finns in this thread.)




I suspect he feels Russia will start throwing MWD and then NATO will interfere.

Thank you, much appreciated.

As far as the WW3 part, it would mainly be the entire world dog piling on Russia at this point. The biggest fear from them at that point is them throwing out nukes that couldn't be intercepted in time.

As far as neutrality, he would be stupid to actually believe that if he did. All that would mean would be time for Russia to lick its wounds, regroup and try again as they have proven their words are worth less than my used toilet paper. The entire reason why Ukraine is in this situation was THEY denuclearized under the agreement that Russia respected its borders, then we got Crimea and everything else.

If interfering would cause WW3, then its already inevitable, I honestly see it as a bluff from Russia and Putin would likely die before they followed that order because they know the consequences if they allow him to launch nukes. And I say this as a guy who lives within the blast radius of Fort Bragg, the United States biggest military base and prime target of such a nuke should things go that route.

[Easo]

So, anything of interest come up over the past 3 or 4 days? Haven't been willing to go over the back and forth with Shalcker on here and haven't been really paying a bunch of attention recently.

Russia is gonna "focus on Donbas now, first phase is successful (whatever that means, supposedly destruction of Ukraine's military capability)", Ukraine has done multiple small counterattacks, Mariupol's defense is on it's last legs and aside from political bullshit being thrown around by everyone tomorrow we have another round of talks, this time for whole 3 days.

In general - not really that much.

saw the kneecapping video, first advice dont commit war crimes, second advice if you are going to commit war crimes dont film it.

remember seeing Ukraine forces saying that artillery and missile launching crews would be given no quarter.

I have yet to see someone being that smart nowadays, does not matter whether from Middle East, Western country or anywhere else.

It was some regional command who said that, IIRC Kharkiv's, but not Kyiv itself. For obvious reasons There was also a doctor who talked about castrating wounded Russians, but then he obviously backtracked xD

I read a report a few years back that the SAAF uses the illumination shells for ground strikes during the night, once the Russians strike the target. Since they lacked the capabilities to do ground sorties during nighttime, they'd use these as a way to guide them to their targets. They used this in Daraa and especially the Idlib flatlands, at least in the later stages of the conflict when Damascus was secured.

I am going to be honest - I have barely only a general understanding of timeline and specifics of Syrian civil war. :/