Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Kaleredar]

I've watched entire Zelensky interview to Dozhd/Meduza and it's basically "Russia gets back to where it was before invasion and then we'll talk", denying every point that was reported as "mostly agreed upon" in previous talks (except maybe "Russian language" and even that take "we'll open Ukrainian school in Russia for every Russian school they open in Ukraine" was pretty bizarre).

Also got to note him supporting "collective responsibility" in treatment of Russians.

And of course "everything Russian MoD said about us was a lie even if i never seen it".

That's... not promising at all.

Very sad sight.

"We invade you under false pretenses, kill your people and bomb your hospitals and you aren't even willing to listen to our absurd demands?! How unreasonable of you!"

Zelensky is absolutely right, here. "Russia fuck off back to Russia" should be the starting grounds for any and all legitimate discussions of ceasefire.

[PhaelixWW]

That's... not promising at all.

Very sad sight.

Probably not too far from the truth, actually.

And nowhere near as sad as Russia invading Ukraine over false pretenses, lying to their citizens about it, and then codifying into law a punishment for telling the truth.

[Fugus]

As I said they are not getting heavy equipment. It is naive to believe they can replace losses just by trophees, especially considering that some are pretty much useless due to lack of compatible ammo and spare parts. Plus you cannot always just evacuate an abandoned tank if you do not have enough fuel at hand - better to literally just burn it Houthi style, that at least denies recovery.

Make no mistake - Ukraine will have to give up something no matter how this ends, Russia is not going to let go of Donbas, not to mention Crimea. Look at Zelensky - he is talking more and more about points Ukraine could cede - and Russia is doing some talking of their own, with tone softening.
They will meet somewhere in the middle and draw a peace deal. I hope.

If you are talking about tanks, Russia's offensive has been so bad that countries have started to rethink how viable tanks even are now due to small equipment like Drones which have been taking them out.

Ukraine may lose something, but not what Russia intended to take, Russia has already lost this war and proven how weak they are in the process while turning the world against them.

At this point, the only thing Russia can win is a consolation prize. And the damage done to them as a nation will cost them far more than they gain.

[Shalcker]

"We invade you under false pretenses, kill your people and bomb your hospitals and you aren't even willing to listen to our absurd demands?! How unreasonable of you!"

Zelensky is absolutely right, here. "Russia fuck off back to Russia" should be the starting grounds for any and all legitimate discussions of ceasefire.

To me that just means Ukraine gets destroyed. However long that takes. Which is quite sad.

"Being right" isn't great replacement for losses of heavy equipment that keep piling up.

[Zaydin]

Ukraine may lose something, but not what Russia intended to take, Russia has already lost this war and proven how weak they are in the process while turning the world against them.

I saw an article commenting that countries that used to fear the Russian military are seeing how poorly it is doing in Ukraine and wondering whether they should be afraid of it anymore given how badly equipped it is due to rampant corruption.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

I think it helps empathy if you can actually imagine people honestly holding such views rather then pass it as "pure propaganda that never happens in reality".

Imagine having to imagine to give your point meaning. It's pure propaganda. Mostly because as you put it.. I need to imagine it for it to be reality.

[Gorsameth]

I saw an article commenting that countries that used to fear the Russian military are seeing how poorly it is doing in Ukraine and wondering whether they should be afraid of it anymore given how badly equipped it is due to rampant corruption.

oh 100%. The Ukrainian invasion has really shown that outside of nukes NATO has nothing to fear from Russia.

[Fugus]

I saw an article commenting that countries that used to fear the Russian military are seeing how poorly it is doing in Ukraine and wondering whether they should be afraid of it anymore given how badly equipped it is due to rampant corruption.

Pretty much, they have proven to be a paper tiger.

We thought they were this tough military might but turns out they were an under equipped, under trained mess that can’t even take on a player a fraction of their size and right next to them were power projection would be easiest.

Kinda like finding out the 6 foot 8 inch, 300 pounds of muscle who has been trying to bully every one pretending he is also professionally trained in armed and unarmed combat is actually just a guy who had implants to look like muscles with no training and actually is so averse to pain that he feints at the sight of needles or blood and even cries at the thought of getting a bruise.

[Easo]

If you are talking about tanks, Russia's offensive has been so bad that countries have started to rethink how viable tanks even are now due to small equipment like Drones which have been taking them out.

Ukraine may lose something, but not what Russia intended to take, Russia has already lost this war and proven how weak they are in the process while turning the world against them.

At this point, the only thing Russia can win is a consolation prize. And the damage done to them as a nation will cost them far more than they gain.

Dude, "tanks are obsolete" spiel is old. Like really, really old. Yet everyone still develops new ones - which should be all the answer needed.

Sure, Russia will have future problems, potentially very very serious ones, but none of these matter right now for Ukraine - and they have lost regardless of outcome, the damage is done. What they can do is survive the war with current goverment intact, without serious losses in territory.
That is why they are pushing for peace, signalling wilingness to concede on some points. And yes, same goes for Russia, war dragging on does not help them as well.

[Kaleredar]

To me that just means Ukraine gets destroyed. However long that takes. Which is quite sad.

"Being right" isn't great replacement for losses of heavy equipment that keep piling up.

I'm sure Russia is hoping for a speedy resolution.

Not because they care about the Ukrainians. That's obviously not true. You don't blow up hospitals and kidnap civilians "because you care." Not because they care about the lives of their own soldiers, which is obviously also untrue. You don't send them in with equipment, training and intel so bad you lose thousands of men in a month.

But because of the very real fact that you seem to deny- that the longer this goes on for Russia, the worse and worse it gets for them. This has gone on longer than they anticipated. There is no "grand unfolding strategy." This is Putin rapidly trying to force a surrender in the vaguest hope hey can claw is way back out from this.

And you seem to be under the further delusion that the damage to Russia hasn't already been done, and that it wont continue to unfurl. The rest of Europe has massively shifted forwards its timeline to cut its dependence on Russian energy, and this has given them the perfect reason to keep pursuing that.

The moment a ceasefire is drawn either because an agreement was reached or Ukraine surrendered, the rest of the world doesn't go "well, back to business as usual!" as you seem to suspect and just let Russia keep doing their thing, same as before all this started. Why should the sanctions be removed? Because it mildly inconveniences some European countries? Why should they go back to using Russian energy sources? Just because some money invested got flushed down the drain?

Putin has shown just how bad an actor Russia can be, and moreover exposed the ways in which he thinks he can keep the world dependent upon him.

The rest of the world doesn't want to play with Putin's Russia. And they're swiftly working on ways on how they wont have to. And the longer Putin drags this on, the more thoroughly burned all those bridges will be. Because Putin has made it very clear that being able to cut oneself off from Russia in the long-term is the right idea, here.

Do not mistake your own apathy and immediate self-interest for what's held by the rest of the world. That's the kind of thinking that has you disastrously invade a far smaller country in the hopes of rebuilding an already-failed nation state.

And you have nobody to blame for this but Putin.

[Fugus]

Dude, "tanks are obsolete" spiel is old. Like really, really old. Yet everyone still develops new ones - which should be all the answer needed.

Sure, Russia will have future problems, potentially very very serious ones, but none of these matter right now for Ukraine - and they have lost regardless of outcome, the damage is done. What they can do is survive the war with current goverment intact, without serious losses in territory.
That is why they are pushing for peace, signalling wilingness to concede on some points. And yes, same goes for Russia, war dragging on does not help them as well.

Yeah, people are still developing new ones, but that doesn't change the fact that nations are NOW starting to rethink their strategic value due to Russia's effectiveness with them and how cheaply they are being countered here. Them rethinking it NOW, doesn't magically have them go back in time to cancel construction or research in them nor does it make them just cancel them at the drop of a dime without further consideration. But they are being seen now less as an aggression tool and more as an occupation tool for after the area is already under control. So no, the fact they didn't retroactively cancel research on them doesn't answer anything and if they did, that would ask more questions of how they managed to time travel to do it.

Ukraine is damaged, but they haven't lost. Honestly, they appear to be winning this handily considering what they were supposedly up against.

[jonnysensible]

Yeah, people are still developing new ones, but that doesn't change the fact that nations are NOW starting to rethink their strategic value due to Russia's effectiveness with them and how cheaply they are being countered here. Them rethinking it NOW, doesn't magically have them go back in time to cancel construction or research in them nor does it make them just cancel them at the drop of a dime without further consideration. But they are being seen now less as an aggression tool and more as an occupation tool for after the area is already under control. So no, the fact they didn't retroactively cancel research on them doesn't answer anything and if they did, that would ask more questions of how they managed to time travel to do it.

Ukraine is damaged, but they haven't lost. Honestly, they appear to be winning this handily considering what they were supposedly up against.

russian airborne that rolled into hostomol on day 1 with 0 armour vs Ukrainian counter attack that turned up with armour. Tanks are fine.

[PhaelixWW]

Yeah, people are still developing new ones, but that doesn't change the fact that nations are NOW starting to rethink their strategic value due to Russia's effectiveness with them and how cheaply they are being countered here.

Let's not ignore the fact that Russia invaded at a time when going off-road, even in a tank, meant quickly becoming mired in mud caused by the spring thaw. This might have been a different story had they invaded at a different time of year.

The use of tanks by Russia in this invasion is not really indicative of the capability of tanks made and operated by a different country in a different theater.

This isn't simply a failure of tank doctrine, it's a failure across the board for the Russians: planning, training, timing, manufacturing, morale... the list goes on.

[Iliena]

Energy markets are global nowadays; "securing non-Russian supply" with "money you can afford" means starving out other regions.

Which means their only real option - as they would have no hope of outbidding you if you go "all out" - will be to come to Russia for supplies they still need.

Prices all across the world will rise due to worse logistics of those arrangements, and Russia will still get energy profits.

With current prices and expected import collapse Russia can gather about same level of surplus as currently frozen by EU and US in about year and a half.

Obviously next one will not be in dollars, euros, and pounds.

My entire monthly utility payment - water, gas, electricity, heating, trash disposal, capital repairs - is about half that.

Btw, did your bill rise before or after war? Using war as excuse is time-honored tradition of failing governments.

Where is the money to build the new pipelines to access other energy markets coming from? I'm pretty sure I read a couple of weeks ago that your pipelines to them were already running at max capacity. I know you and China think the west is falling, but all the petty bickering we tend to do amongst ourselves has stopped for now and you have our full attention.

Stop with the fake news! I'm sure the FSB will not be happy with a Russian citizen calling the "special operation" a war on an international forum!

BTW anybody know if the FSB has a tips email address?

[Forogil]

Using war as distraction is an even more time-honored tradition of failing governments.

True, but the tyrant's handbook indicate that you should win the war.

Idi Amin failed and fell due to that, even if Putin isn't doing great he's unlikely to fail as bad as Dada.

[PhaelixWW]

True, but the tyrant's handbook indicate that you should win the war.

Oh, yes, I said as much a month ago:

The thing about a short, victorious war is... it needs to be short and, yes, victorious.

[Gaaz]

A quick googling says a Russian Major General is equivalent to an American Brigadier General (1 star general), which typically commands 4000-6000 troops. While that’s not exactly a 30,000 troop commander, it’s still a very significant officer.

That is just theory based on by the book numbers. Technical requirement for a Major or Lieutenant General is to be in command of a tactically independent unit, a division. Depending on a specific division and its operational objectives, the number of personnel involved can be as little as 2 "polk" units (750+ soldiers each, again, by the book). Do not forget that there are around 700 generals in the Russian army, commanding roughly 900k personnel. The rest are either reserve, or a drawn to inner regiments from said reserve (and thus do not really affect frontline numbers). That is about 1300 people per General on average. In any case, it does not matter really, just a nuance.

[Gorsameth]

Where is the money to build the new pipelines to access other energy markets coming from? I'm pretty sure I read a couple of weeks ago that your pipelines to them were already running at max capacity. I know you and China think the west is falling, but all the petty bickering we tend to do amongst ourselves has stopped for now and you have our full attention.

Stop with the fake news! I'm sure the FSB will not be happy with a Russian citizen calling the "special operation" a war on an international forum!

BTW anybody know if the FSB has a tips email address?

China does not think the West is falling. Which is why they want nothing to do with Russia.

[Zaydin]

China does not think the West is falling. Which is why they want nothing to do with Russia.

I don't think China wants nothing to do with Russia; it's trying to straddle the line. The CCP doesn't want to look like it is afraid of the West by complying with sanctions against Russia but it also doesn't want to get too close to Russia for fear of getting hit with sanctions for aiding the Russian war effort.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Let me know when Ukraine has received any tanks, IFVs, APCs, artillery, figher jets, etc. Because so far Zelensky is desperately asking for them.
Oh, and we do know what Ukraine roughly had before the war. I don't know, maybe you want to see Ukraine draw out some T-64A from storage without ERA, prehistoric night sight and worn out engine to be thrown into grinder - but I do not.

I would LOVE to see you try to explain to me where Ukraine could potentially get any new Pion, for example. Or replace any of the destroyed S-300 launchers. As far as we know even the battery from Slovakia has not arrived yet.

I'm not the one claiming to know facts about the situation that I can't possibly know. I'm certainly not the one that multiple times in this thread has claimed to know specific details of how terrible the Ukraine position is, while attacking other posters for claiming to know what bad things are happening to Russia.

I'm just going to point out your hypocrisy, in case anyone else misses it. I don't think they have, by the way, which is why I used the word "laughable" in my last post. Your attempts to paint yourself as an intelligent watcher of this war with no bias is pathetic.

But keep them coming. I'll carry out holding your posts up to the light. Maybe you'll even recognise what you're doing at some point. But I doubt it.