Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gorsameth]

Where is the money to build the new pipelines to access other energy markets coming from? I'm pretty sure I read a couple of weeks ago that your pipelines to them were already running at max capacity. I know you and China think the west is falling, but all the petty bickering we tend to do amongst ourselves has stopped for now and you have our full attention.

Stop with the fake news! I'm sure the FSB will not be happy with a Russian citizen calling the "special operation" a war on an international forum!

BTW anybody know if the FSB has a tips email address?

China does not think the West is falling. Which is why they want nothing to do with Russia.

[Zaydin]

China does not think the West is falling. Which is why they want nothing to do with Russia.

I don't think China wants nothing to do with Russia; it's trying to straddle the line. The CCP doesn't want to look like it is afraid of the West by complying with sanctions against Russia but it also doesn't want to get too close to Russia for fear of getting hit with sanctions for aiding the Russian war effort.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Let me know when Ukraine has received any tanks, IFVs, APCs, artillery, figher jets, etc. Because so far Zelensky is desperately asking for them.
Oh, and we do know what Ukraine roughly had before the war. I don't know, maybe you want to see Ukraine draw out some T-64A from storage without ERA, prehistoric night sight and worn out engine to be thrown into grinder - but I do not.

I would LOVE to see you try to explain to me where Ukraine could potentially get any new Pion, for example. Or replace any of the destroyed S-300 launchers. As far as we know even the battery from Slovakia has not arrived yet.

I'm not the one claiming to know facts about the situation that I can't possibly know. I'm certainly not the one that multiple times in this thread has claimed to know specific details of how terrible the Ukraine position is, while attacking other posters for claiming to know what bad things are happening to Russia.

I'm just going to point out your hypocrisy, in case anyone else misses it. I don't think they have, by the way, which is why I used the word "laughable" in my last post. Your attempts to paint yourself as an intelligent watcher of this war with no bias is pathetic.

But keep them coming. I'll carry out holding your posts up to the light. Maybe you'll even recognise what you're doing at some point. But I doubt it.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

I've watched entire Zelensky interview to Dozhd/Meduza and it's basically "Russia gets back to where it was before invasion and then we'll talk", denying every point that was reported as "mostly agreed upon" in previous talks (except maybe "Russian language" and even that take "we'll open Ukrainian school in Russia for every Russian school they open in Ukraine" was pretty bizarre).

Apparently "More or less agreed upon" was actually "Less". Much Less.

Also got to note him supporting "collective responsibility" in treatment of Russians.

Sad when you don't stop your buddies from committing war crimes...you get treated as you committed those war crimes yourself, eh?

Probably a lesson in there, but I'm not sure you've learned the correct one.

[Corvus]

Speaking of tanks, with Russia having lost at least 300 in just a month, a comparison to US losses needs to be made.

In 20 years of fighting the US lost just 23. Of those 9 were to friendly fire and just 1 led to the lose of all crew.

- - - Updated - - -

The UK has announced the first shipment of Starstreak air defence systems has been delivered to the Ukrainian military.

[Rasulis]

There are alternative facilities being built in US.

I am all for Intel going back to doing both foundries and fabs. However, considering that Intel has not even picked the sites yet, the 2024 date in the article is way overoptimistic.

Did I say something about cost? Yep. 60 - 120 billion. To put it into perspective, 100 billion is China's semiconductor industry R&D budget for 10 years. Intel is planning to spend that much domestically in 2 years. Kudos.

BTW, how much is Russia planning to spend on their semiconductor industry?

They plan to compete against TSMC which supply around 70 - 80% of the global foundry products. Not something that will happen in a few years. The world will still need TSMC for a long time.

Since they are competing against TSMC, I assume they will be producing silicon-based chips. Therefore, the US military will still depend on Taiwan for Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) based chips.

Even if US wants to defend Taiwan it cannot afford to bet on their industry not being destroyed in the process (like it happens in Ukraine right now).

The US would rather see the entire island burn to ashes than let China get their hands on those technologies and facilities.

- - - Updated - - -

Speaking of tanks, with Russia having lost at least 300 in just a month, a comparison to US losses needs to be made.

In 20 years of fighting the US lost just 23. Of those 9 were to friendly fire and just 1 led to the lose of all crew.

- - - Updated - - -

The UK has announced the first shipment of Starstreak air defence systems has been delivered to the Ukrainian military.

Because the US would never send their tanks into ambush situations, like what the Russians are doing, without full infantry support.

[Kaleredar]

Because the US would never send their tanks into ambush situations, like what the Russians are doing, without full infantry support.

Again, the lack of supplies, lack of intel, lack of planning, and lack of support really speaks to this as being an intended shock and awe situation from Russia where'd they roll their biggest most scariest things in a straight line into Ukraine, Ukraine would gulp and tug at their collar, and then cede some further chunk of land to Russia before the rest of the world had really had the time to think about how to best rebuff Russia on the matter, and by the time they did the matter would be settled so they'd just deal Russia a tiny slap on the wrists.

It's akin to a schoolyard bully going up to a smaller kid and punching him in the jaw to try and take his lunch money... only for the smaller kid to whip back around, put up his fists, and say "step to face, bitch!" So now schoolyard bully kid is squaring off against smaller kid, surrounded by the entire school, so he's just gotta get that lunch money so he doesn't look like the thuggish prick he is to the rest of the schoolyard.

[Corvus]

The Ukrainian government has said that any mistreatment of prisoners is unacceptable, there is no statute of limits on it and if true it will be investigated.

I expect the Russian government to come out any moment now to say the same about war crimes committed by their forces. Any minute now...

Oh, wait, war crimes are official Russian policy and are being praised.

[Breccia]

Because the US would never send their tanks into ambush situations, like what the Russians are doing, without full infantry support.

There are other differences, I'm sure. Oh, none flattering for the Russians. The US didn't send tanks to Afghanistan till 12 days after...sigh..."shock and awe". And the US tanks weren't in any particular hurry. The US was fucking pissed. We were more than okay taking our time pounding each and every Taliban outpost and stronghold into pieces smaller than dust before moving on, and were willing to put more money towards this than Russia has left. (Exaggeration for comic effect) Putin, by contrast, needed a quick and decisive victory to show how smart and yuge and bigly he was. He did show the world...just not the way he wanted. W might have wanted to project such an image, but I honestly believe it came in second to "oh HELL no". Iraq, different story.

[Mihalik]

shock and awe

I mean, the world is both shocked and awed. By the sheer incompetence of the Russian government and military.

[PhaelixWW]

The Guardian: Germany is considering purchasing a missile defence system to shield against a potential attack from Russia

Germany is considering purchasing a missile defence system to shield against a potential attack from Russia, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said late on Sunday.

When asked during an appearance on public broadcaster ARD whether Germany might buy a defence system such as Israel’s Iron Dome, Scholz said:

“This is certainly one of the issues we are discussing, and for good reason,” though he did not specify what type of system Berlin was considering.

When asked whether Germany aimed to procure a missile defence system with a longer range than its existing Patriot batteries, Scholz said: “We need to be aware that we have a neighbour who is prepared to use violence to enforce their interests.”

The Bild am Sonntag newspaper reported earlier a missile defence shield for the whole territory of Germany was one of the topics discussed when Scholz met with Eberhard Zorn, Germany’s chief of defence.

Specifically, they spoke about a possible acquisition of the Israeli “Arrow 3” system, the paper said.

Andreas Schwarz, a member of parliament for Scholz’ Social Democrats, told the newspaper:

We must protect ourselves better against the threat from Russia. For this, we need a Germany-wide missile defence shield quickly. The Israeli Arrow 3 system is a good solution.”

Tomorrow's headlines will likely include Putin shrieking: "Why are you pointing your new missile defense system at Russia?! Your aggression will not go unnoticed! Any attack on Russian missiles flying towards Germany will be considered an unprovoked attack on Russia! Don't make us denazify Germany... again!"

[Breccia]

Germany is considering purchasing a missile defence system to shield against a potential attack from Russia

That's all they have to say. Putin can yell all he wants, but (a) he's kinda busy and (b) Germany can be lying and just trolling him.

[PhaelixWW]

Putin can yell all he wants, but (a) he's kinda busy

For someone who lived through 4 years of Trump, I'm surprised you can say this with a straight face; there's always time to bloviate.

[Breccia]

For someone who lived through 4 years of Trump, I'm surprised you can say this with a straight face; there's always time to bloviate.

Oh, sorry, I meant Putin can yell all he wants...but that's it.

[Voidism]

I mean, the world is both shocked and awed. By the sheer incompetence of the Russian government and military.

What, you're telling me Operation Deserters Storm wasn't perfect?

[PhaelixWW]

Oh, sorry, I meant Putin can yell all he wants...but that's it.

I meeeeeeeeean....

I wanna say "Sure, of course that's all he can do!", buuuuuut...

*gestures towards Ukraine*

...who the hell knows anymore?


Honestly, no, that's probably all that will happen. But definitely don't be surprised if we hear Putin condemn German "aggression", because apparently every defensive measure taken in Europe is a direct affront to Russia's manifest destiny.

[Breccia]

...who the hell knows anymore?

I admit it's possible Russia will attack Germany based on considering a defense system...while also fighting a losing war in Ukraine that's shaving trillions off Russia's economy and tying up all his free ground forces.

I also admit it's possible, if he does this, his own allies will realize how suicidal this is and kill him.

[Rasulis]

There are other differences, I'm sure. Oh, none flattering for the Russians. The US didn't send tanks to Afghanistan till 12 days after...sigh..."shock and awe". And the US tanks weren't in any particular hurry. The US was fucking pissed. We were more than okay taking our time pounding each and every Taliban outpost and stronghold into pieces smaller than dust before moving on, and were willing to put more money towards this than Russia has left. (Exaggeration for comic effect) Putin, by contrast, needed a quick and decisive victory to show how smart and yuge and bigly he was. He did show the world...just not the way he wanted. W might have wanted to project such an image, but I honestly believe it came in second to "oh HELL no". Iraq, different story.

My impression is that the Russian think this will be a repeat of the 2014 invasion - relatively easy and quick war, and minimal western sanctions.

I remember reading an article about a war game conducted by Rand Corporation which concluded a bleak outcome in case of a repeat invasion. However, the result was not inevitable, if certain measures were taken. Apparently, Ukraine read the study and implemented those measures, while the Russian probably used it to wipe their collective butts.

[Azadina]

russian airborne that rolled into hostomol on day 1 with 0 armour vs Ukrainian counter attack that turned up with armour. Tanks are fine.

I'd like to ask those guys now, a month later how great of an idea that was.

[Corvus]

Talk of an off-ramp for Russia, of a negotiated deal may not really be an option when you have Russian state TV pushing messages like this - that any deal will be seen as a defeat of Russia in the eyes of its people, its army and its allies.. Then you have Russian politicians saying that they will build cities in Siberia (aka gulags) and deport millions of Ukrainians to them to 'de-nazifiy' them. The message still being pushed is total victory. Any change of that message is going to have a real 'Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia' vibe to it.

The Starstreaks that the UK are giving Ukraine may not be SAMs, but they are still impressive. They can hit targets at altitudes up to 5km and travel at mach 4+ (both faster and higher range than stingers) and release 3 tungsten submunitions that use a laser based tracking system. Which means flares are useless at stopping these. These things are doing 1.3km/second. Helicopters are in a lot of trouble if these are around, though by all reports the Russian planes are firing mostly from within Russian airspace anyway.