Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Fuiking]

And again, if that happens... how has Russia "succeeded?"

Because it seems to me like you're the ones on the ticking clock in actuality. You need a convenient, feel-good victory wrought from Ukraine so you can pull out before sanctions ruin your country beyond the decades of damage it's already inflicted in the hope that you can claw some sense of normalcy back. And that hope shrinks with every week that Ukraine persists.

But you haven't scared Ukraine into surrendering yet. And, as another poster wryly pointed out, the only shock and awe you've affected is how shocked and awed the rest of the world is at your military's blinding incompetence.



And the entire world is much more able to pivot, and is indeed pivoting as we speak one month in, to move away from Russia.

Russia cannot afford to have the world pivot away from it. We're seeing that already.

I have nothing but confidence that the EU and the US can rely heartily on themselves and others. After all, they're not at war, sending their young men to die, facing down sanctions that are crippling their economies to the core. They just lost a trading partner. Surely some number of the 194 other countries in the world can fulfill whatever void Russia creates.

More oil needs to be pumped? Russia doesn't have a monopoly on oil. I'm sure other countries like the US and SA are licking their chops at the prospect of sinking new wells and selling to interested buyers. Lots of wells closed in the United States or had construction halted due to the 2020 pandemic, and you've presented a perfect reason for them to reopen those. And the more forward thinking countries will be taking this time to pivot away from fossil fuels altogether.

Your constant appeal here is "don't think of Ukraine, think of yourselves! Just let Russia do what Russia's going to do! It doesn't concern you!"

"Don't think of Poland, think of yourselves! Just let Germany do what Germany is going to do! It doesn't concern you!"

The rest of the world has learned better than to let tin-pot dictators with delusions of grandeur run rampant throughout Europe. Putin thought they hadn't, or thought they wouldn't care. Putin thought wrong.



They really haven't. The US in particular really is sitting pretty on this one. Literally nothing is at risk for them here, and they've been given the perfect opportunity to smack Russia upside the head with international support. A position, worth reiterating, that Russia put itself in.

Nigh every person in the United States, outside of a special handful of Russian shills like the deplatformed Trump and his increasingly irrelevant toadies, seems pretty happy with the sanctions levied against Russia.

You actually unintentionally united both the democrats and republicans, in that both groups overwhelmingly (70%+) support the US banding together with its allies in support of Ukraine. The majority of the US also supports crushing sanctions levied against Russia, and many think that the US should be doing more.

Again, perhaps Putin believed he had cleaved enough of the country into Trump's idiotic camp such that it would be a hot button issue in the US. It really isn't. Even Trump had to backpeddle away from his initial praising of Putin.

In fact take that as a lesson. Because, just like China, Trump is in it for himself as well. And if these are the kinds of alliances you think you're creating, you're gonna get burned pretty bad when push comes to shove and they abandon you for their own self interests.

We've got historical precedent on that, too. The USSR thought it had a friend in Germany in WW2. Until they didn't.

great points you do raise, sadly enough your basically talking to a brick wall.

[Shalcker]

And again, if that happens... how has Russia "succeeded?"

Because it seems to me like you're the ones on the ticking clock in actuality. You need a convenient, feel-good victory wrought from Ukraine so you can pull out before sanctions ruin your country beyond the decades of damage it's already inflicted in the hope that you can claw some sense of normalcy back. And that hope shrinks with every week that Ukraine persists.

You're high on hopium. No, there will be no "sense of normalcy" back.

After initial shock it's already on "let's set up our own new world order" track - "using rouble with unfriendly country in payments for our gas" announcement is one of examples.

And the entire world is much more able to pivot, and is indeed pivoting as we speak one month in, to move away from Russia.

Trying to pivot but not actually succeeding.

Things West needs to pivot away take years to build at pretty much every step. There is literally no extra capacity to replace Russian energy volumes.

Russia cannot afford to have the world pivot away from it. We're seeing that already.

Show what you're seeing.

Because out of the whole world Russia is the one most capable of surviving West "pivoting away from it".

I have nothing but confidence that the EU and the US can rely heartily on themselves and others. After all, they're not at war, sending their young men to die, facing down sanctions that are crippling their economies to the core. They just lost a trading partner. Surely some number of the 194 other countries in the world can fulfill whatever void Russia creates.

You should actually check that - because i did, and the answer in a lot of cases is "not anytime soon".

More oil needs to be pumped? Russia doesn't have a monopoly on oil. I'm sure other countries like the US and SA are licking their chops at the prospect of sinking new wells and selling to interested buyers.

So far Saudis refuse to answer Biden's call, talk with China to sell oil in Yuan, and stick to previous OPEC agreements in regard to increasing production. UK visit similarly failed.

Don't think it looks very encouraging for your side.

Lots of wells closed in the United States or had construction halted due to the 2020 pandemic.

Those aren't showing great recovery rate either despite oil price growth.

And the more forward thinking countries will be taking this time to pivot away from fossil fuels altogether.

Which is exactly why you are vulnerable right now - noone wants to invests in something you claim will be obsolete ten years down the line but you still need it for those decades until your investments into renewables pay off.

The rest of the world has learned better than to let tin-pot dictators with delusions of grandeur run rampant throughout Europe. Putin thought they hadn't, or thought they wouldn't care. Putin thought wrong.

Putin thought that you were most vulnerable right now - and he was right.

He just didn't think you'll be shooting yourself in the foot so eagerly.

Nigh every person in the United States, outside of a special handful of Russian shills like the deplatformed Trump and his increasingly irrelevant toadies, seems pretty happy with the sanctions levied against Russia.

Somehow US citizens want Biden to focus on economy... and his approval ratings are abysmal.

Amid Europe’s largest land war since World War II, 7 in 10 Americans expressed low confidence in President Joe Biden’s ability to deal with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a new NBC News poll, and 8 in 10 voiced worry that the war will increase gas prices and possibly involve nuclear weapons.

And during the nation’s largest inflation spike in 40 years, overwhelming majorities said they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and disapproved of the president’s handling of the economy.

Doesn't look good for midterms; looks great for potential Trump's triumphant comeback in 2024 too.

[Kaleredar]

great points you do raise, sadly enough your basically talking to a brick wall.

Indeed, but I would like to imagine my sentiments as echoing those of most "western" posters on these forums. In that we've judged the situation and found it particularly terrible for Russia, and are certainly not beleaguered or jaded about the situation.

I can't speak for posters in Europe but I get the impression they have similar sentiments, only that they far more pointedly feel the need to cut themselves off from Russia.

And frankly, that's how Russia ultimately loses. Others just don't give up or give in to apathy. Russia are paper tigers, through and through. They tried to bully a country they thought would be easy prey and are being given an absolute run for their money. Literally.

- - - Updated - - -

You're high on hopium. No, there will be no "sense of normalcy" back.

After initial shock it's already on "let's set up our own new world order" track - "using rouble with unfriendly country in payments for our gas" announcement is one of examples.

Trying to pivot but not actually succeeding.

Things West needs to pivot away take years to build at pretty much every step. There is literally no extra capacity to replace Russian energy volumes.

Show what you're seeing.

Because out of the whole world Russia is the one most capable of surviving West "pivoting away from it".

You should actually check that - because i did, and the answer in a lot of cases is "not anytime soon".

So far Saudis refuse to answer Biden's call, talk with China to sell oil in Yuan, and stick to previous OPEC agreements in regard to increasing production. UK visit similarly failed.

Don't think it looks very encouraging for your side.

Those aren't showing great recovery rate either despite oil price growth.

Which is exactly why you are vulnerable right now - noone wants to invests in something you claim will be obsolete ten years down the line but you still need it for those decades until your investments into renewables pay off.

Putin thought that you were most vulnerable right now - and he was right.

He just didn't think you'll be shooting yourself in the foot so eagerly.

I'm going to lump this all in the retort that the rest of the world isn't projected to have their economy lose 15 years of progress over the course of the next year.

That's just Russia, bud. You speak of hopium... you're the only country operating on it. That these scanty trading allegiances you've clawed out with erstwhile partners of convenience and ostensible dependencies from European countries that's not happening now but totally will bring them back to you like a jilted ex will save you from this boiling cauldron you've thrown yourself in when every country in the world looks at Russia's prospects with a rather grim outlook.

Keep hoping that. Perhaps that will see you through the tough times ahead of you. Just like how Qanon thinks Trump is going to announce JFK Jr. as vice president any day now.

Somehow US citizens want Biden to focus on economy... and his approval ratings are abysmal.

Amid Europe’s largest land war since World War II, 7 in 10 Americans expressed low confidence in President Joe Biden’s ability to deal with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a new NBC News poll, and 8 in 10 voiced worry that the war will increase gas prices and possibly involve nuclear weapons.

And the majority of people who disapproved of Biden's stance on Ukraine said that Biden wasn't doing enough to help Ukraine.

That's an oops for you, dog.

And during the nation’s largest inflation spike in 40 years, overwhelming majorities said they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and disapproved of the president’s handling of the economy.

Doesn't look good for midterms; looks great for potential Trump's triumphant comeback in 2024 too.

Seeing as Trump praised Putin for his actions in Ukraine, and the US' support of Ukraine is almost unanimous across party lines, that's probably a pretty bad damper on Trump's run.

But this isn't about Trump. Or Biden. This is about Russia, and Ukraine, and the former's utter disaster they're making of this. If you're hoping your pal Trump will get reelected in 2024 and save Russia from the hole it's dug itself, then you're thinking this is going to go on until 2025, by which time Russia is going to be hurting real, real bad.

[PhaelixWW]

Monday morning in Moscow and MoEx stocks are sinking again.

[jonnysensible]

shackler i remember you used the drug addict line about Zelenskyy ages ago, do you actually believe that?

You always do this 'this is what russia will do', as opposed to 'this is what i think' which is what everyone else (bar maybe easo) does.

Do you personally think this war was a good idea?

[Shalcker]

And the majority of people who disapproved of Biden's stance on Ukraine said that Biden wasn't doing enough to help Ukraine.

That's an oops for you, dog.

Except Biden already almost maxed out what his administration thinks is "below-WW3" support to Ukraine.

They even balked at Polish idea of transferring their Migs to US base in Germany and then US somehow supplying them to Ukraine.

So, even more drops to follow when Ukraine actually loses - because they'll keep thinking it happened because Biden didn't help it enough and hurt US standing that way.

[postman1782]

Assessment of deployed Russian forces was "around 90% power remaining" by Pentagon estimates at two weeks; four weeks in Pentagon estimate was "slightly below 90%". And then there is still potential for "everything we actually have" rather then just 150k deployed to Ukraine.

Armor gets repaired over time; there are reports of trains coming back to Russia with them.

Meanwhile every Ukrainian military build or repair facility gets missile strikes.

It can afford a lot more then Ukraine.

You can't repair any armor that gets hit by a javelin or anti-tank rocket like an AT4.

Ukraine is kicking Russia's ass right now.

- - - Updated - - -

Do you think armor repairs itself like bone? If you mean by people there's not enough supplies for that, either way what you said was stupid.



Do you believe any of the crap you post or are you made to do it in the hopes to be employee of the month? Ukraine keeps getting equipment by the day Russia......is using shit from WW2 museums.

He probably thinks armor is repaired like in Battlefield, where you can use a torch or a pneumatic wrench to repair it after it takes a tank shot.

[Shalcker]

shackler i remember you used the drug addict line about Zelenskyy ages ago, do you actually believe that?

He still seems detached from reality. And he likely does use some - given his previous occupation it wouldn't be strange at all.

Hard to say how much it impairs his functions as a president.

You always do this 'this is what russia will do', as opposed to 'this is what i think' which is what everyone else (bar maybe easo) does.

Do you personally think this war was a good idea?

It became more likely every time West dismissed it as a leverage from Russian side - despite clear Russian advantages.
Because a lot of deterrent comes from visceral understanding of what war and associated destruction actually means.
Understanding that Europe - and Ukraine - apparently lost as WW2 generation died.

Grim reminder of costs associated with "sticking to your principles until the end" therefore looks necessary to provide reality check on unbridled idealism.

[Fuiking]

He still seems detached from reality. And he likely does use some - given his previous occupation it wouldn't be strange at all.

Hard to say how much it impairs his functions as a president.

It became more likely every time West dismissed it as a leverage from Russian side - despite clear Russian advantages.
Because a lot of deterrent comes from visceral understanding of what war and associated destruction actually means.
Understanding that Europe - and Ukraine - apparently lost as WW2 generation died.

Grim reminder of costs associated with "sticking to your principles until the end" therefore looks necessary to provide reality check on unbridled idealism.

I think Zelensky is closer at reality then your stooge, Putler is.. but listening to you makes me wonder what the hell you are taking

[Shalcker]

Do you personally think this war was a good idea?

Do you think Ukraine/EU not ceding an inch to Russia was good idea now that you know it meant war?

[jonnysensible]

Do you think Ukraine/EU not ceding an inch to Russia was good idea now that you know it meant war?

Russia chose a war of aggression. A war of mass murder. It wasn't written in stone. Its not for me to choose I'm not Ukrainian but if Russia rolled into croydon after denying my right to exist i'd be looking for an NLAW to make tank soup. In the words of a Russian : Ни шагу назад!

This statement 'provide reality check on unbridled idealism' is just so grossly cynical. I can't really comprehend it.

[PhaelixWW]

Do you think Ukraine/EU not ceding an inch to Russia was good idea now that you know it meant war?

The only thing that "meant war" is Putin's paranoia. Russia has no legitimate claim to an inch of Ukraine.

[Nastard]

Do you personally think this war was a good idea?

C'mon, you know he won't answer that question honestly. He'll probably imply some bullshit like Ukraine started the war by not caving instantly.

[Shalcker]

Russia chose a war of aggression. A war of mass murder. It wasn't written in stone. Its not for me to choose I'm not Ukrainian but if Russia rolled into croydon after denying my right to exist i'd be looking for an NLAW to make tank soup. In the words of a Russian : Ни шагу назад!

So, to be clear, you still think it was good idea even knowing what would be Russian choice in response?

Surely then you can imagine Russians having exact same feelings about their own actions.

Clash that could only be resolved through force.

This statement 'provide reality check on unbridled idealism' is just so grossly cynical. I can't really comprehend it.

You cannot comprehend how ultimately your ideals have to be rooted in reality of what is actually possible?
That you need to understand costs your ideals impose on others that do not necessarily share them?

[Dontrike]

As i've written, damaged tanks and the rest of equipment gets shipped back to Russia and repaired. Cycle isn't very fast and not everything will be restored but it will not be zero either.

So they can't get supplies to soldiers, but they can Amazon Prime the tanks back and forth. Okay

That's weird because they left behind literal tons of equipment, why would they leave it behind if they can so easily overnight it back?

Ukraine keeps getting infantry equipment while losing everything heavier.

I didn't know they were losing the Russian tanks they keep stealing.

[Fuiking]

So they can't get supplies to soldiers, but they can Amazon Prime the tanks back and forth. Okay.



I didn't know they were losing the Russian tanks they keep stealing.

The amount of propaganda from Shillker is saddening.. even more they allow it on here.

[PhaelixWW]

So, to be clear, you still think it was good idea even knowing what would be Russian choice in response?

Surely then you can imagine Russians having exact same feelings about their own actions.

No, sorry, they're not even remotely the exact same feelings.

That's just the fucking lie you tell yourself to ease the guilt of being on the side of a monstrous, invading force, committing war crimes on a neighboring country.

But nobody else buys that shit for a second.

Pretending that this "could only be resolved through force" is a disgusting lie built by Putin's paranoid aggression.

[Shalcker]

Pretending that this "could only be resolved through force" is a disgusting lie built by Putin's paranoid aggression.

If you do not cede anything how exactly did you see Ukrainian conflict resolved in any other way?

Given that neither side is willing to admit defeat and agree to terms of surrender? (even though both Minsks were result of Ukrainian military defeats)

And both build up their military capabilities along the way for forceful solution.

[PhaelixWW]

If you do not cede anything how exactly did you see Ukrainian conflict resolved in any other way?

There was no conflict. Then Russia invaded.

This could have been resolved peacefully by Putin not being massively paranoid warmonger.

Or, you know, Russia telling Putin to GTFO and having a less evil person lead the country.

[Shalcker]

There was no conflict. Then Russia invaded.

That's how armed conflicts happen - there is disagreement for any reason and one of sides uses force because diplomacy provides no resolution.

When force goes into play diplomacy already failed.

This could have been resolved peacefully by Putin not being massively paranoid warmonger.

Pray tell how exactly could it get resolved peacefully if neither side is willing to concede?

West had 8 years to get diplomatic solution. Their best offer was Minsk-2 that Ukraine openly sabotaged/ignored; no other options were ever agreed upon.