Russian invasion of Ukraine

[dextersmith]

Sanctions were incredibly gradual. If you think they are devastating at their apex, there were MANY moments where Russia could have reacted. Realized that sanctions are happening, and unless they change the course, they will keep ramping up. Instead Russia chose to escalate.

For every sanction, they increased the intensity of the attack. Bombardment of civilians, breaking truces, halting civilian evacuations, threatening other countries (Finland, Poland), threatening to use nuclear and chemical weapons. Each time they escalated, the sanctions escalated as well. There was a clear action-reaction pattern to that. Being given the choice, russia chose the sanctions.

It's hard to trust that the West would drop sanctions against russia after the conflict? Well, the West trusted Russia to give up on an unjust war, with sanctions being used as warnings. Right now russia can trust in one thing: if they keep leveling cities, destroying lives, culture and nations, sanctions won't stop. Because no one wants to deal with a country that can decide to invade the same country he's doing business with.

I can't think of any further sanctions they can apply without causing a food shortage.

[jonnysensible]

You got a source for this? Because I'm a bit...skeptical.

yea paywalled tho : https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-...b-9a755a39b626

[Mihalik]

The one difference between Russia and Ukraine is that Russia can replace any vehicle lost - Ukraine cannot.

Russia in fact cannot replace much of anything.

https://fortune.com/2022/03/22/russi...s-ukraine-war/

They consolidated most of their defense manufacturing into that 1 plant, which is now running out parts, components etc. They have been cannibalizing their tank reserves for parts for a while now.

Again, the sanctions are specifically targeting their ability to build hardware, they simply do not have any domestics industrial robotics capacity, no electronics etc.

[Iphie]

yea paywalled tho : https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-...b-9a755a39b626

Thanks! maybe I should look into a sub then.

[Edge-]

Thanks! maybe I should look into a sub then.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%...b-9a755a39b626

Handy paywall bypass link.

[Easo]

As far as "Listen More". Pot, meet Kettle.

We know Russia won't repay Ukraine, but Ukraine will be getting aid for a while from other nations and continues to now. And while Ukraine might be fucked up with damage for the next decade, Russia is PROPER FUCKED with the sanctions doing far more damage to them as a nation than they even caused to Ukraine along with Ukraine destroying and taking Russian troops and military equipment.

And you are again lying claiming that Russia can replace every piece of hardware lost when they couldn't even afford to give their troops proper and maintained equipment to begin with.

What's your next hat trick, claim that the unemployed guy with a mountain of debt can afford to replace every brick of the house he just burned down while the guy who has aid out the wazoo from multiple sources can't afford to do anything?

But enjoy lying to yourself, because that's about the only person you're convincing here.

Almost as if it doesn't matter for Ukraine that Russia is fucked. It does not help them getting unfucked - and first Russia has to get "fucked", has to have economy actually collapsing, not just going into recession.

You and me actually have no idea about the actual state of maintenance - not like we have a vehicle to examine. We can judge their logistics though. Seriously, do take a look at Russian army equipment stock, there is always more to throw into the grinder.

New details on Ukraine's ceasefire talks with Russia:

– Ukraine has to give up on Nato but will be free to join the EU
– Russia is no longer demanding "denazification"
– "demilitarization" and Russian language are not part of the possible deal either


at this rate Russia is going to give up Rostov to Ukraine it another month

Source, btw:
https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-...b-9a755a39b626

according to four people briefed on the discussions.

I wonder who are those "four people". This honestly sounds unbelievable, Russia is not going to withdraw from Donbas, it's literally the biggest point of those talks.

Russia in fact cannot replace much of anything.

https://fortune.com/2022/03/22/russi...s-ukraine-war/

They consolidated most of their defense manufacturing into that 1 plant, which is now running out parts, components etc. They have been cannibalizing their tank reserves for parts for a while now.

Again, the sanctions are specifically targeting their ability to build hardware, they simply do not have any domestics industrial robotics capacity, no electronics etc.

Funny, except we don't have verified proof of that. Uralvagonzavod is the last thing that is gonna shut down. If it does then by that point Russia is already in full economical collapse.

And have you already forgotten the 10k+ tanks and other vehicles in reserves...? Not to be built in the future, but in actual reserves.

[Vampiregenesis]

I believe we will see a change in how warfare is conducted from now on, Russia's way is outdated, the weapons that are being used now are too deadly for a normal human to handle and they are causing massive casualties. We might see a swift toward robotic/remote warfare. I don't think war has ever been so deadly before, you can't just charge in with tanks and hope you will win, it's not cost-efficient anymore and many will die because of it. Russians are capable to learn and this war will bring them down to reality and will only make things worse in the future.

[PhaelixWW]

I believe we will see a change in how warfare is conducted from now on, Russia's way is outdated, the weapons that are being used now are too deadly for a normal human to handle and they are causing massive casualties. We might see a swift toward robotic/remote warfare. I don't think war has ever been so deadly before, you can't just charge in with tanks and hope you will win, it's not cost-efficient anymore and many will die because of it. Russians are capable to learn and this war will bring them down to reality and will only make things worse in the future.

Are you... seriously claiming that Russian forces have been too successful?

The only way that Russian forces have been "too deadly" is when they commit war crimes by bombing civilians.

Hint: that's not "warfare".

Fucking garbage takes are garbage.

[Slant]

You are believing too much in people not doing stupid kneejerk reactions. There is difference with someone walking around in a t-shirt with Russian flag and Z letter vs "Z-something", like the towers in Riga.
O and V should also be added to the list, no?

Do you even read what people are writing or do you just habitually vomit whatever random thought passes through your head at the time?

- - - Updated - - -

If Russia is being truthful here. This screams "Please give us an off ramp we can spin as a win at home!"

Ukraine has effectively removed any off ramps for Russia by Zelenskyy saying after the war, he'll have a referendum if Ukraine wants to join NATO or not. He wants base democracy to decide this question, and since Putin cannot tolerate people getting a say in how their lives are run, this is DOA. On top of a condition being that no russian soldier is inside Ukraine before that referendum is held.

- - - Updated - - -

yea paywalled tho : https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-...b-9a755a39b626

LOL, paywall... Ukrainians on r/ukraine have taught me a new trick.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%...b-9a755a39b626

[Draco-Onis]

Russia in fact cannot replace much of anything.

https://fortune.com/2022/03/22/russi...s-ukraine-war/

They consolidated most of their defense manufacturing into that 1 plant, which is now running out parts, components etc. They have been cannibalizing their tank reserves for parts for a while now.

Again, the sanctions are specifically targeting their ability to build hardware, they simply do not have any domestics industrial robotics capacity, no electronics etc.

I think it's rather naive to think this, Russia is getting millions of Euros a day from fossil fuels. They are likely getting charged an arm and a leg buying things on the black market from China and India. If Iran can still get parts and maintain a lot of things with less money there's no reason to think Russia's buying power won't get them whatever they need.

[Slant]

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%...b-9a755a39b626

Handy paywall bypass link.

Dammit, beat me to it. Always you.

[Iphie]

Ukraine has effectively removed any off ramps for Russia by Zelenskyy saying after the war, he'll have a referendum if Ukraine wants to join NATO or not. He wants base democracy to decide this question, and since Putin cannot tolerate people getting a say in how their lives are run, this is DOA. On top of a condition being that no russian soldier is inside Ukraine before that referendum is held.

When did he say that? because the last I heard he didn't want to join NATO anymore. (granted that was last week or so, so maybe he said something new.)

[Slant]

Give it some time and even the NATO "ban" will be off the table

As it should, for a genocidal aggressor literally kidnapping people to trade later. Oh and let's not forget, return of People's Republics + Crimea too. Those don't seem likely but I do hope the world will not lift any sanctions until borders from 1991 are recognized.

What gets me is... how stupidly obvious they are.

Let's assume their fantasy world is real. And Ukraine is literally full of nazis. Germany 2.0, if you will.

Who... in their right mind would "give up" denazifying such a country? Like... the fuck? How does that even compute just inside their crazy little fantasy world? It's like Stalin going up to Hitler and then saying "Oh ok, since you fought really fiercly in Stalingrad, we'll just let you be. No harm, no foul, eh?"

That's being idiotic.

- - - Updated - - -

When did he say that? because the last I heard he didn't want to join NATO anymore. (granted that was last week or so, so maybe he said something new.)

It's in that interview he did for Russian TV, I believe... Honestly, I'm reading so much translated shit right now, it's hard to pinpoint specifically where he said it. Also, dude's like a PR machine from another dimension.

[Draco-Onis]

It's in that interview he did for Russian TV, I believe... Honestly, I'm reading so much translated shit right now, it's hard to pinpoint specifically where he said it. Also, dude's like a PR machine from another dimension.

Maybe the translation was a referendum for Donbass to stay in Ukraine because a vote for NATO would not make any sense since it doesn't force NATO to take Ukraine.

[Vampiregenesis]

The real trouble for Ukraine starts now that Mariupol has fallen, Kyiv looks like a distraction right now, it's probably too early to judge this war.

[Zaydin]

Maybe the translation was a referendum for Donbass to stay in Ukraine because a vote for NATO would not make any sense since it doesn't force NATO to take Ukraine.

Honestly NATO should fast track membership for Ukraine before Russia can do something about it when the time comes.

[Slant]

Maybe the translation was a referendum for Donbass to stay in Ukraine because a vote for NATO would not make any sense since it doesn't force NATO to take Ukraine.

It's here...

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...ssmedia_dudes/

Oh no wait, that was just a funny video...

It's here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com..._zelensky_did/

Ukraine can consider neutrality [meaning no longer want to join NATO], but only through a countrywide referendum. That referendum cannot happen until all Russian troops have left Ukraine. Then he’ll put the question to his people in a referendum…and they can then still choose to want to enter NATO.

It's a guy doing translations. They seem reliable on r/Ukraine, but I'd be happy to have a Russian speaker here translate and verify. Ideally someone who's not a Putinista. :P
@Iphie

[Draco-Onis]

Honestly NATO should fast track membership for Ukraine before Russia can do something about it when the time comes.

That would pretty much mean WWIII, NATO's members would not want to take that risk.

[Slant]

Honestly NATO should fast track membership for Ukraine before Russia can do something about it when the time comes.

It'll happen. Russia is apparently at its weakest in the past 100 years, Finland is already openly talking about NATO membership, which is HUGE for Finland. Ukraine would get fast tracked, and the Belarussian population is waking up these days, too. If this plays out properly, Russia could be isolated completely and would have a lot of time to reconsider life choices.

[PhaelixWW]

it's probably too early to judge this war.

No, I think everyone's already judged this war.