Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Slant]

That would pretty much mean WWIII, NATO's members would not want to take that risk.

Nah, we're openly providing arms to Ukraine. I think we're near a point where people are willing to call the bluff in the hopes that Russian military keeps its cool and control of nuclear arms.

[Draco-Onis]

Nah, we're openly providing arms to Ukraine. I think we're near a point where people are willing to call the bluff in the hopes that Russian military keeps its cool and control of nuclear arms.

Ukraine joining NATO pretty much verifies all of Putin's fears, maybe you want to risk the end of the human race for Ukraine I am not.

[PhaelixWW]

Ukraine joining NATO pretty much verifies all of Putin's fears, maybe you want to risk the end of the human race for Ukraine I am not.

Clearly Putin's "fears" don't need to be validated to be acted upon.

[Draco-Onis]

Clearly Putin's "fears" don't need to be validated to be acted upon.

Yes, what do you think happens when they are?

[PhaelixWW]

Yes, what do you think happens when they are?

Nothing that couldn't happen even if they weren't... which is the point that you ignored.

[Slant]

Ukraine joining NATO pretty much verifies all of Putin's fears, maybe you want to risk the end of the human race for Ukraine I am not.

Dude, us not doing anything also verifies all his fears. The bloke's completely mad. Whatever we do, inaction, action... it'll all feed into his paranoia. See, the world is out to trick him. And by not doing anything, we're just really secretly doing something. He can't see it yet, but it's devious and he needs to fight us for it.

He needs to be shown the limit of his power now, when Russia is weakest. Cos whatever is going on in the Ukraine, he's fully blaming the West for it in his delusion that somehow he's recreating the Soviet Union. Appeasement is the wrong play here. Especially when right now there's an opportunity for change in some countries, if not Russia. And the more you appease him, the more time he has to learn from the mistake he made with Ukraine. Next time he invades, it won't be an amateur army of conscript kiddies that are literally crying for their mommies.

Also, fuck what Russia thinks. If countries want to join us, voluntarily, who are we to refuse them? EU membership is also not conditional. Certainly not condition to anything dictated by Russia. If Ukraine joins, they are automatically part of the entire package. And that includes territorial solidarity.

Now, mind you. I have changed my stance on Ukraine. But here's the kicker that I haven't changed my mind on. The conflict with Russia needs to be resolved before EU or NATO is seriously on the table. We'd be stupid to let anyone in that is still in an ongoing conflict with the main adversary that NATO was created to defend against.

- - - Updated - - -

Clearly Putin's "fears" don't need to be validated to be acted upon.

Completely agree with you, but with more words, cos I'm dumb.

[uuuhname]

Ukraine joining NATO pretty much verifies all of Putin's fears

this is what we call a self fulfilling prophesy. if the point was to dissuade Ukraine and other countries for that matter, from joining NATO, then Putin has done more to ensure that happens HIMSELF then anyone else in this situation.

[dextersmith]

New details on Ukraine's ceasefire talks with Russia:

– Ukraine has to give up on Nato but will be free to join the EU
– Russia is no longer demanding "denazification"
– "demilitarization" and Russian language are not part of the possible deal either


at this rate Russia is going to give up Rostov to Ukraine it another month

Wasn't denazification their biggest selling point? Sounds like a huge concession for nothing less than unconditional surrender. Z is half of a Nazi symbol and Russia sounds like they need denazification.

[Santti]

That would pretty much mean WWIII, NATO's members would not want to take that risk.

Come on. There is no WW3 going to happen over Ukraine. Not even if NATO would dogpile in Ukraine and kick Russia the fuck out. Just don't go invade Russia in turn.

No, we'd leave enough outs for Russia to take.

[Iphie]

Nah, we're openly providing arms to Ukraine. I think we're near a point where people are willing to call the bluff in the hopes that Russian military keeps its cool and control of nuclear arms.

Sorry, no, not willing to take that chance. I prefer isolating and if they behave they can come sit at the adult table in about 30-40 years.

[Draco-Onis]

Dude, us not doing anything also verifies all his fears. The bloke's completely mad. Whatever we do, inaction, action... it'll all feed into his paranoia. See, the world is out to trick him. And by not doing anything, we're just really secretly doing something. He can't see it yet, but it's devious and he needs to fight us for it.

He needs to be shown the limit of his power now, when Russia is weakest. Cos whatever is going on in the Ukraine, he's fully blaming the West for it in his delusion that somehow he's recreating the Soviet Union. Appeasement is the wrong play here. Especially when right now there's an opportunity for change in some countries, if not Russia. And the more you appease him, the more time he has to learn from the mistake he made with Ukraine. Next time he invades, it won't be an amateur army of conscript kiddies that are literally crying for their mommies.

Also, fuck what Russia thinks. If countries want to join us, voluntarily, who are we to refuse them? EU membership is also not conditional. Certainly not condition to anything dictated by Russia. If Ukraine joins, they are automatically part of the entire package. And that includes territorial solidarity.

Now, mind you. I have changed my stance on Ukraine. But here's the kicker that I haven't changed my mind on. The conflict with Russia needs to be resolved before EU or NATO is seriously on the table. We'd be stupid to let anyone in that is still in an ongoing conflict with the main adversary that NATO was created to defend against.

Again are you willing to risk it for Ukraine? Ukraine becoming neutral with a third party (NATO) being the enforcer if Russia violates its sovereignty is the best approach. Russia being weak doesn't make their nukes vanish, Putin isn't mad he just has a different point of view. If you are right then why would you gamble against a mad man?

You can't say he is mad and he won't do it in the same sentence.

[Slant]

Sorry, no, not willing to take that chance. I prefer isolating and if they behave they can come sit at the adult table in about 30-40 years.

Uh, "calling the bluff" as in let Ukraine et all join NATO. See, you're part of the "bluff package" sitting in Finland. I'd rather have you protected and am fairly confident Russia ain't gonna launch nukes over you having a vote on the matter. Same with Ukraine.

[Draco-Onis]

Come on. There is no WW3 going to happen over Ukraine. Not even if NATO would dogpile in Ukraine and kick Russia the fuck out. Just don't go invade Russia in turn.

No, we'd leave enough outs for Russia to take.

If that were the case NATO would be in Ukraine already.

[Santti]

If that were the case NATO would be in Ukraine already.

That's not how NATO works, though, is the thing. Individual countries might join in, but not NATO. Because that's not how it operates.

[Slant]

Again are you willing to risk it for Ukraine? Ukraine becoming neutral with a third party (NATO) being the enforcer if Russia violates its sovereignty is the best approach. Russia being weak doesn't make their nukes vanish, Putin isn't mad he just has a different point of view. If you are right then why would you gamble against a mad man?

You can't say he is mad and he won't do it in the same sentence.

I'm not saying he won't do it.

I'm saying he's mad and despite public assumption, Russia doesn't have "a big red button that launches everything."

Much like the US, you need actual people to actually make launches happen. And there's a chain of command, and someone along the way is very likely to pull the plug.

[PhaelixWW]

If that were the case NATO would be in Ukraine already.

That's not how NATO works.

You can't join NATO if you're in an active state of conflict.

[Vorkreist]

The only way that Russian forces have been "too deadly" is when they commit war crimes by bombing civilians.

It kinda feels like war crimes are getting normalized considering with how much Russia will get away with at the end of the day. The main message of this conflict is Nato or the rest of the world won't do shit and just sit and watch while you full blast civilians as long as you have some nukes at home. Learn from Russia's mistakes and prepare proper logistics, supplies and plans on how to deal with sanctions and you can go ahead to conquer / genocide some annoying neighbor.

[Draco-Onis]

I'm not saying he won't do it.

I'm saying he's mad and despite public assumption, Russia doesn't have "a big red button that launches everything."

Much like the US, you need actual people to actually make launches happen. And there's a chain of command, and someone along the way is very likely to pull the plug.

Again do you want to take that gamble? that Putin a guy that has dominated Russia for 3 decades hasn't replaced everyone in that chain of command that might defy him.

- - - Updated - - -

That's not how NATO works.

You can't join NATO if you're in an active state of conflict.

So how would Ukraine join? they are always in active conflict.

[PhaelixWW]

Again do you want to take that gamble? that Putin a guy that has dominated Russia for 3 decades hasn't replaced everyone in that chain of command that might defy him.

You say that like we're not already playing that gamble.

[Easo]

The real trouble for Ukraine starts now that Mariupol has fallen, Kyiv looks like a distraction right now, it's probably too early to judge this war.

Mariupol is not fallen yet, but close to it, ~2.5 city districts left (Azovstal steel mill, Primorskoye to the left at sea and part of the central one). Few more days at least, though organized resistance, of course, lessens the more is captured.

Honestly NATO should fast track membership for Ukraine before Russia can do something about it when the time comes.

You cannot join NATO if you have unresolved territorial issues, fast track or not.

You say that like we're not already playing that gamble.

Whole MiG hot potato back and forth deal proved no one wants increased chance of risk. Are we gambling? Up to a point, imho, but the line drawn seems to be quite clear and NATO does not want to overstep it.