Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

Still nothing on your grand plan on how this is going to play out.

That's because there are a whole lot of ways it can play out, but you've only narrowed your focus to two options.

[Draco-Onis]

That's because there are a whole lot of ways it can play out, but you've only narrowed your focus to two options.

well go for it still waiting blow us away with your imagination.

[Kallisto]

How is this different from pre-2014 when Ukraine sovereignty was protected by the UK, US and Russia?

We already know that shit didn't work.

Wording.

Pre 2014 they were given assurances.
What Ukraine wants now is a guarantee.

The former is a "We'll help." the Latter is "We're fully committed."

[Slant]

It wasn't really protected and there really was no real deal to end hostilities aside from a few sanctions no one really took the situation seriously. If Russia only took a few sections of Ukraine the reaction would probably be similar to Crimea.

Ukraine isn't protected now. The only protector as per that treaty you keep quoting, is actually the invader. In fact, Ukraine is protecting itself right now. You're talking about Ukraine needing to be neutral... while they're kicking Russian ass. What kinda bargaining position is that?

"Oh okay, you're beating us and we can't deal with you at all, but here's how this will end, you will declare neutrality, or else..."

Or else fucking what? Give Russia yet another spanking?

[Mihalik]

And have you already forgotten the 10k+ tanks and other vehicles in reserves...? Not to be built in the future, but in actual reserves.

That number is literally utterly meaningless. Considering the state of disrepair the stuff they sent in was in, odds are much of those "reserves" is literally scrap metal.

[Draco-Onis]

Ukraine isn't protected now. The only protector as per that treaty you keep quoting, is actually the invader. In fact, Ukraine is protecting itself right now. You're talking about Ukraine needing to be neutral... while they're kicking Russian ass. What kinda bargaining position is that?

"Oh okay, you're beating us and we can't deal with you at all, but here's how this will end, you will declare neutrality, or else..."

Or else fucking what? Give Russia yet another spanking?

They've been fighting Russia for 8 years, I am sure they will get Crimea back tomorrow...

[Gorsameth]

It wasn't really protected and there really was no real deal to end hostilities aside from a few sanctions no one really took the situation seriously. If Russia only took a few sections of Ukraine the reaction would probably be similar to Crimea.

That absolutely does not answer my question.

Peace with Ukraine having an agreement from protection from NATO but not joining. How is that different from what Ukraine already had?
We know wishy washy promises don't mean shit because we had it and it didn't do shit.

[Draco-Onis]

That absolutely does not answer my question.

Peace with Ukraine having an agreement from protection from NATO but not joining. How is that different from what Ukraine already had?
We know wishy washy promises don't mean shit because we had it and it didn't do shit.

NATO can be a signatory for security guarantees or Ukraine can join the EU or make a pact with a NATO or EU country there are options. They cannot rely on Russia's word for any kind of deal obviously and a third party has to be involved since sanction relief will be on the table.

[Rasulis]

Did not read the part where I was responding to Russia getting parts, technology and replacements for their hardware?

India will buy crude from Russia because of the 20% discount on Ural crude. However, there is no sanction on crude. We are also looking at 2-month delivery window for Ural crude. As opposed to 10 -12 days for delivery from Australia and Middle Eastern countries.

However, no Indian/Chinese companies will sell sanctioned parts to Russia. Here is a perfect example.

China's Sinopec Bows Out Of Russian Petchem, Gas Projects

Sinopec reportedly paused the talks when it realized that one of Sibur's minority shareholders and board members, Gennady Timchenko, had been sanctioned by the EU and Britain due to his ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Timchenko was also on Novatek's board until Monday, when he resigned.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has recently met with Sinopec, CNPC, and CNOOC—its three energy giants—to review its ties to Russia. Reuters sources have suggested that those companies have been told to tread carefully in its dealings with Russia and to not make any rash moves in buying Russian assets.

Just a hint that they may breach sanction was enough for Sinopec to halt the deal.

[Slant]

They've been fighting Russia for 8 years, I am sure they will get Crimea back tomorrow...

If you don't follow the news, I don't know wtf you think you're going to accomplish here. I can't tell you more than "just look at what's happening now".

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NATO can be a signatory for security guarantees or Ukraine can join the EU or make a pact with a NATO or EU country there are options. They cannot rely on Russia's word for any kind of deal obviously and a third party has to be involved since sanction relief will be on the table.

Sanction relief won't be on the table. Ukraine has ZERO input on that.

And likewise Russia has no position to make any demands right now.

[Draco-Onis]

If you don't follow the news, I don't know wtf you think you're going to accomplish here. I can't tell you more than "just look at what's happening now".

What does that have to do with the fact that they do not have the manpower to kick Russia outright? Russia's invasion was a disaster but they still managed to gain territory which won't easily be won back.

[Slant]

What does that have to do with the fact that they do not have the manpower to kick Russia outright? Russia's invasion was a disaster but they still managed to gain territory which won't easily be won back.

You say that on the day they take major towns back... literally routing so called "elite tank divisions" (Stalingrad).

You're pretty out of touch, buddy.

[Draco-Onis]

Sanction relief won't be on the table. Ukraine has ZERO input on that.

And likewise Russia has no position to make any demands right now.

Of course everything will just be sunshine, rainbows and fun for Ukraine for now on, it's obvious you don't live in reality think we are done.

[Slant]

Of course everything will just be sunshine, rainbows and fun for Ukraine for now on, it's obvious you don't live in reality think we are done.

No, it won't, thanks to Russia. The country will be in ruins. But, and this is the point Ukrainians make every single day, it will be a FREE country. And rest assured, they won't be left alone rebuilding it.

[PhaelixWW]

What does that have to do with the fact that they do not have the manpower to kick Russia outright?

Pretty sure there are a lot more Ukrainians than Russian soldiers in Ukraine.

[dextersmith]

NATO is a defensive alliance and it has become readily apparent that Ukraine needs to be part of it to deter future Russian aggression.

Furthermore, the word of the Russian government is worth as much as Monopoly money and Ukraine would be wise not to trust a word Putin says.

I don't see how peace negotiations are realistic or believable after what happened with all those ceasefires.

[Mihalik]

I think it's rather naive to think this, Russia is getting millions of Euros a day from fossil fuels. They are likely getting charged an arm and a leg buying things on the black market from China and India. If Iran can still get parts and maintain a lot of things with less money there's no reason to think Russia's buying power won't get them whatever they need.

There's stuff that they just can't buy tho. Not in the volumes they need. They've been having issues in everything from their oil and gas extraction infrastructure to literally basic electronics. This is not stuff that floats around on the secondary market in large volumes. It's also stuff that China and India simply cannot and does not build. They buy it from the same place as everyone else. Germany, Japan and Taiwan.

There's a huge difference between maintaining a small fleet of jets and tanks like Iran...what Russia needs is an entirely different scale.

[Draco-Onis]

SNIP.

Still waiting on your imaginative outcomes.

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There's stuff that they just can't buy tho. Not in the volumes they need. They've been having issues in everything from their oil and gas extraction infrastructure to literally basic electronics. This is not stuff that floats around on the secondary market in large volumes. It's also stuff that China and India simply cannot and does not build. They buy it from the same place as everyone else. Germany, Japan and Taiwan.

There's a huge difference between maintaining a small fleet of jets and tanks like Iran...what Russia needs is an entirely different scale.

Agreed for airline jets theirs are more modern and won't be easily maintained like the older fleet Iran has but they will be able to get some things at high price.

[Slant]

There's stuff that they just can't buy tho. Not in the volumes they need. They've been having issues in everything from their oil and gas extraction infrastructure to literally basic electronics. This is not stuff that floats around on the secondary market in large volumes. It's also stuff that China and India simply cannot and does not build. They buy it from the same place as everyone else. Germany, Japan and Taiwan.

There's a huge difference between maintaining a small fleet of jets and tanks like Iran...what Russia needs is an entirely different scale.

Not to mention that Russia has triggered enough red lines in Europe for the EU to begin moving away from Russia. The process has started moving and it won't be stopped until virtually no fossil fuels (liquid or gas) are imported from Russia.

Russia has increased the political cost beyond the point where you can justify holding on to the status quo in exchange for cheaper prices.

[PhaelixWW]

Still waiting on your imaginative outcomes.

At least you're now admitting that you have no imagination whatsoever.