Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

I'll believe it when I see movement away from Kyiv.

Technically they are moving away from Kyiv. Just not by choice.

[Iphie]

Technically they are moving away from Kyiv. Just not by choice.

Fair point, I should have added: 'voluntary'.

[Corvus]

Something I saw raised by some experts in these matters - the majority of the 79 confirmed T80 losses, including all 46 T80Us, were from the 4th Guards Tank Division. And that just is verified loses. On paper it has 220 tanks at max strength (and it is unlikely to have been at max strength especially after prolonged time in the field and on exercises). So at a minimum on just the T80Us alone they have taken over 20% losses and the true number will be a lot higher. 30% is when a unit is considered no longer combat capable and 50% is when it is considered destroyed.

Not a lot of the 4GTD has been seen since March 8th either apparently.

[Shadowferal]

All things considered you have to wonder if most of the mechanized units of any sort is completely operational.

[Bakis]

That is dilemma for the Ukrainian army.
The more mechanised damages they inflict the more they restrict the ruskie ground forces and funneling Putler to the tactic he's most known far. Terror.
Carpet strikes of non-guided munitions, hitting hospitals, apartment complex, power stations, everything.

It's not like the Ukrainian army got any choice but given russias will to resort to crimes of war then I
most certainly see a reason for peace talk as necessary.

But how to trust a despotic lier.

[Dontrike]

Don't know if it's confirmed, but this doesn't bode well for and another sign Russian supplies aren't going as well as many in their military hope.

"The consequences of the Ukrainian military's liberation of Trostyanets in the Sumy region and the defeat of the Kantemyrovskaya Tank Division have become known. Last night the Chief Directorate of Intelligence reported that the commander of the 13th tank regiment, which was part of the Kantermyrovska Division, had shot himself.

.......

Also, Lieutenant General Sergey Kisel, commander of the 1st Tank Army (military unit 11161, Bakovka) of the Western Military District, was removed from his post. The 1st Tank Army includes the notoriously "elite" Kantemyrovskaya Division. It is noted that Kisel was dismissed because of the huge losses and the failure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We do not exclude that the escape of the Russian army from Trostyanets was the last straw. It was no longer possible for the Russian authorities to turn a blind eye to the poor leadership of the troops," the report says.

[Belize]

It's probably bollocks but things could be going the right way as 'Moscow has decided to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.”'

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status...74654940520448

They haven't moved in 3 weeks and have suffered constant loses since. This is a "we're not retreating, we're tactically falling back".

[dextersmith]

It's probably bollocks but things could be going the right way as 'Moscow has decided to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.”'

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status...74654940520448

What a joke. Too little too late for trust. Can't save face for running out of juice.

[Biglog]

Russia does seem to be shifting strategy pretty dramatically in the last 24 hours. In negotiations they have now dropped the (ironic) term "de-nazification" and are softening on other demands, such as saying now that Ukraine could join the EU if it agrees to not join NATO. Today they announced they are pulling back from around Kyiv and Chernigiv, and essentially consolidating to defensive positions much closer to DNR/LNR lines.

These are significant changes and might be a crack in the door to negotiations that could have a chance. This is Russia subtly coming to terms that a complete takeover and long-term occupation of Ukraine is clearly unrealistic. The big sticking point will be the demand around the size of Ukraine's military post-war. Very early in the war Russia created documents to establish permanent bases in the DNR/LNR. I can't imagine Ukraine would agree to a 50k max person military while Russia resets the state of it's military for a few years before trying an invasion again from bases even closer. There are some other topics that will be difficult like war crimes investigations and reparations, since Ukraine has repeatedly said that Russia must financially pay for the damage it has caused. But at least the primary demands are becoming much more realistic.

[Breccia]

All things considered you have to wonder if most of the mechanized units of any sort is completely operational.

Biden goes after Putin's supply chain, having read this post apparently.

The United States and its allies plan new sanctions on more sectors of Russia's economy that are critical to sustaining its invasion of Ukraine, including supply chains, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said on Tuesday.

Adeyemo, speaking in London on a European trip to consult with allies on strengthening and enforcing sanctions to punish Russia, said the broadening of those efforts was aimed at undermining "the Kremlin's ability to operate its war machine".

"In addition to sanctioning companies in sectors that enable the Kremlin's malign activities, we also plan to take actions to disrupt their critical supply chains," Adeyemo told an event at the think tank Chatham House.

"Our goal is to use an integrated approach that includes export controls which will bite over time and sanctions that will bite immediately," he said, adding they would also target alternative military suppliers used by Russia.

Now I am fully aware that these same suppliers probably also bring over standard car and truck parts too. Which is going to suck for the Russian people. I'll consider weeping for them when Ukrainian civilians are no longer being shelled to death in bomb shelters or hospitals. Until then, they're a distant second. Sorry.

Adeyemo went on to say a bunch of other stuff, the article is actually a pretty good summary read. I'm adding this since it's come up:

Adeyemo said that the international system that gave rise to the sanctions needed strengthening, including by addressing food insecurity resulting from the conflict, which has disrupted grain shipments from Ukraine.

Just a reminder, the reason there's food insecurity, is because Putin invaded. There is no blame that can reasonably be placed elsewhere, and the US and our allies are working to help, not hurt, the situation. If you're worried about Africa starving because they're not getting Ukraine bread, put the blame where it belongs.

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"Also, Lieutenant General Sergey Kisel, commander of the 1st Tank Army (military unit 11161, Bakovka) of the Western Military District, was removed from his post."

Tough break. I'm sure they'll hold the funeral with whatever part of his corpse they can find.

I found that story on Pravda, so I'm going to say "confirmedish".

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Russia does seem to be shifting strategy pretty dramatically in the last 24 hours.

Yeah, they have, haven't they? I doubt it was because Biden said "just kill Putin already". Well, Russia has sabotaged peace talks multiple times already. I'll believe they had a genuine change of heart when troops actually back off. Legitimate peace talks, where Russia is willing to accept something other than "Ukraine unconditionally surrenders" are a step up from the war crimes Russian troops are committing when they're not too busy raping widows or dying of frostbite.

[Vampiregenesis]

The question is will Russia forfeit conquered territory? I don't think they will do so and they have stolen a big part of Ukraine that is the most important economy-wise.

[Mihalik]

Putler to the tactic he's most known far. Terror.
Carpet strikes of non-guided munitions, hitting hospitals, apartment complex, power stations, everything.

Here's the problem tho. The Russians are not leveling hospitals and apartment blocks because they can't beat the Ukrainian army.

They are doing it because that's how they operate.

They've done the same in Chechenya and Syria.

Any degree of resistance beyond the token resistance the Georgians were able to put up (because they are tiny fucking country) will always lead to the Russians resort ing to terror tactics because that's simply how the Russians do war now.

It's no longer endless waves of armor, choppers and paratroopers flooding you. That was Soviet tactics and the Russians just don't have the means to pull it off anymore.

Now they just warcrime.

Considering how now they'll be focusing on Eastern Ukraine....expect the Russians going full ethnic cleansing//mass rapes//mass graves// to subjugate the region.

A huge demoralized conscript army...an incompetent, overworked officer corps (holy shit if this war demonstrated anything, it's that the backbone of a military is the NCO) with constant Russian state propaganda about Ukrainian Nazis and how the Russians were victimized by the evil Ukrainians...this can go full Yugoslavia in the blink of an eye.

I'm not saying that's what Putin and his cadre want...but based on the level of incompetence displayed by his government, I don't think they would be able to prevent it or control it if it gets out of hand.

[zealo]

The question is will Russia forfeit conquered territory? I don't think they will do so and they have stolen a big part of Ukraine that is the most important economy-wise.

Big part of why Russia is doing this is the water situation in Crimea becoming critical.

I don’t think they’re ready yet to pull back from the south without a more permanent answer to that being agreed upon by both sides.

[Daymanmb]

We're still waiting on evidence of soldiers using ambulances as cover on the reg.

Oh no, you got me with the single thing I could not provide a proof of.

It took you 15 pages and a decent amount of pressure before you admitted you were wrong. The audacity of some people...

But... I did not.

You didnt?

I am constantly seeing our military (Ukrainian military to be exact) ride in ambulances to go between parts of the city.

He is right about use of ambulances by soldiers

You still stand by this and retract your previous confession?

I mean, its fine if you are retracting your earlier confession, I dont expect much integrity from you, its just funny to see you post stuff like this:

admit that you don't have a solid proof.

You hold people to standards that you, yourself, do not even live up to.

[Mihalik]

I found an interesting article that might just explain a bit further how the Russians bungled this so badly from the start.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...actical-level/

I figured from day one the Russians were likely having morale problems tied to the fact that even before the invasion they have spent months sitting in tents in the Eastern European winter. But this issue was likely further compounded by the fact that they (including most of their officers) weren't actually aware why they were really there.

This whole plan was already likely way beyond the actual capabilities of the Russian military, then they have essentially done pretty much everything they could to handicap themselves, because the Kremlin is so full of paranoid lunatics that the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing.

The whole gamble here was that this won't actually turn into a real shooting war and the Ukrainians will just fold and the West will just take a loss.That was one helluva gamble consider the implications and possible consequences.

[Bakis]

Here's the problem tho......

Yes I know Russias army dont have enough systems nor munitions for guided munition from either ground or air. But so far, and dont ge me wrong, somewhat "limited" fuck it-level-it-all use of dumb munitions with some obvious outliners depending on theatre. Putler can ramp the terror to be the default.
He's already a war criminal by a massive amount (even though thos laws got many loopholes).
He already crossed that line, only real next line awaiting to be crossed is chemical agents which he used in all his previous wars "special operations".

[Breccia]

The whole gamble here was that this won't actually turn into a real shooting war and the Ukrainians will just fold and the West will just take a loss.

I mean, not the first time we've heard this, but...at this point, is there any other reasonable answer?

There is no way a result like this came from a war that was planned to be lengthy.

There is no way a result like this came from a superior size, superior tech, and superior prepared force. If you have those three, you win, end of story. At least one component is missing.

I mean, I can understand "the rest of the world came together to support Ukraine" being a surprise, and maybe Crimea pointed them in the wrong direction. But just because I understand those mistakes doesn't make them non-mistakes. I get it when a student divides by 12 to go from feet to inches instead of multiplying, but it's still wrong.

Things Russia did right in this unprovoked war stand out in a quagmire this muddy. I guess they're getting a chance to use those Mach 10 supermissiles? And they're demonstrating how well they can clamp down on international information ("not great" but better than "ineffective"). But that article and the dozens like it, as well as Russia's apparent slow move towards the bargaining table for realsies this time, are just symptoms of the root cause: Russia trying to show the world how strong of a superpower they are...and succeeding beyond what anyone expected.

[Gorsameth]

The question is will Russia forfeit conquered territory? I don't think they will do so and they have stolen a big part of Ukraine that is the most important economy-wise.

I don't expect them to forfeit territory they now 'hold'. But I also don't think the Ukrainian army is waiting to ask them nicely.

The question isn't 'will they forfeit'. Its 'Can they hold it'.

[Breccia]

Oh, this could be interesting. Or it could be blowhard.

We've been talking about Russia defaulting because they can't honor their bonds. They just admitted it.

Russia retaliated in what it has called an "economic war" with the West on Tuesday by offering to buy back its $2 billion Eurobonds maturing next month in roubles rather than dollars.

"What are Eurobonds, capitalized?"

Complicated. But they are a contract with a specific currency unit. Not paying in that currency unit is a breach of that contract.

The finance ministry offer on Eurobonds maturing on April 4, Russia's biggest debt payment this year, follows Western moves to tighten sanctions against the country over its invasion of Ukraine and to freeze Moscow out of international finance.

It was not immediately clear if bondholders would be forced to accept roubles if they rejected the offer, a move that would break the terms of the bond and would again raise the prospect of Russia's first external sovereign default in a century.

Creditors said it might be aimed at helping Russian holders who now face restrictions in receiving dollar payments.

"This is a tender offer and not a final decision that these bonds will be paid in roubles. Perhaps, Russian authorities want to gauge investors’ willingness to accept payment in roubles?" said Seaport Global credit analyst Himanshu Porwal.

Tim Ash of BlueBay Asset Management, which is not a bondholder, said the move was part of a fight back by Russia's central bank and finance ministry "to fend off default and stabilise markets and the rouble".

Ash said the United States' Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), which enforces U.S. sanctions, "should make clear" it will not extend a deadline of May 25 for U.S. individuals or entities to receive payments on Russian sovereign bonds.

Here's where it gets outside of my knowledge. Russia is offering to pay their nominal value, but I'm pretty sure they're offering it based on what they say the ruble is worth. Not what everyone else thinks. Basically, as we've seen, Russia has a currency exchange rate only they use, whereas in international trade the ruble is being dumped. They're also cheating since you can't just buy a bunch of dollars from Russia, but you can sell your dollars...or euros, or eurobonds, for what Russia claims is fair.

The remaining options are (a) force a default when enough people refuse, or (b) grant an extension and hope Russia somehow gets better, but until then you have a piece of paper of questionable value.

The Russian government sold the bonds for dollars and is now basically doing an ex-post-facto money exchange. I don't see how this move will magically make more dollars appear in the Russian government or bank. And while I completely see Russia letting the rich Putin allies cash out for dollars first to keep them happy, I see even more the Russian government holding those dollars because of how few and precious they are.

There's another half-billion on the way, and a month-long grace period, etc etc. This isn't being decided overnight.

If Russia defaults, it ruins their credit rating and makes it much harder for loyal Russian businesses to borrow internationally. In theory, Russia has dollar cash reserves that can handle this, but probably doesn't want to part with them. They're about to weigh the long-term and short-term benefits of this move. They may yet cave, shrug their shoulders and sigh, handing over $2 billion dollars. Some other novel solution might be reached, like using frozen assets to pay the dollars off.

But there is no good end to this for Russia. They either fulfill their obligations and have even fewer dollars left, or they cut themselves off from future endeavors even harder than they already have.

[Slant]

Why? To keep casualties squarely on Ruski side in case of a conflict. Seems like a good deal, don't ya think?

Yeah I know, but you know the reason is cos the perceived threat of Russian military was - as we now know - vastly overrated. Still, having the F-35 ain't bad at all, I think it's a good tool, even if the scope is not as big as the Pentagon clearly would like it to be. But we're all very clear that you don't need an F-35 to negate a fleet of Flankers or... *chuckle* that fabled new SU-35, whatever the fuck that abomination is supposed to achieve.

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Question, as a moderator, do you have access to see stuff like a users IP address and other such stuff to see where they track back to? Would be interesting to be able to call out liars saying they are in one space when really they are in another.

It'd also casually violate all kinds of privacy rights... I'd slap this forum with a complaint just for funsies if they ever pulled a stunt like that.

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I mean, there are definitely neo-Nazis in Ukraine. It's eastern Europe, there's neo-Nazis everywhere, including Russia. They're among Putin's biggest supporters.

There's neo-nazis in every country.