Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Cynep]

Let me know when Ukraine is pushing into Crimea against the stupid, incompetent, incapable and cleptocratic Russkies.

Won't happen for next 15 years apparently, if we are to believe Podolyak. Interesting question is, will Russia eat full sanctions that entire time? USSR started cracking before 40 years of Cold War passed, and Russia is not even close to USSR. Crimea being economically net negative won't help either.

[dextersmith]

Any peace treaty that doesn't include some severe limitations on Russia and guarantees of a Ukraine-West defense treaty is simply a way to give Russia time to regroup, rearm and invade again.

It's why these peace talks will take a very long time, Russia absolutely needs to pay a hefty price or else it'll just start shit again in a couple years.

Russian guarantees isn't worth the toilet paper it's written on. Look at the ceasefires. They're notorious for reinventing reality.

[Cynep]

It was foolish of me to try and communicate problems and worries of Ukrainians who do not belong to the chosen nation or ethnicity.

Fairy tales. I don't belong to the chosen nation either. Even with current events I identify as a Russian-speaking Ukrainian, not a "real" one (I'm part Russian part Ukrainian like many people here). Of course I can speak Ukrainian but I never needed to, after finishing school decades ago. Before war I sometimes uttered partial phrases in jest, like sometimes Americans speak Spanish in movies, but I absolutely never was persecuted for preferring to speak Russian language. Neither were Greeks and Caucasians I know personally. Many prominent Ukrainians are not Ukrainians ethnically, highlighting your disinformation.

[Afrospinach]

And that's if the warheads are even still there and have not been sold along the way.

Oh god, sold to whom?

>.>

I think I mentioned this earlier in the thread but it is thought that Ukraine is responsible for North Korea's nuclear icbm capability. Countries like this and Russia really cannot afford to be this unstable and corrupt.

[Kaleredar]

Russian guarantees isn't worth the toilet paper it's written on. Look at the ceasefires. They're notorious for reinventing reality.

Which is why Russia stipulating that Ukraine disarming and forgo any defensive alliances is unacceptable.

[Easo]

The scale of desalination needed is non-practical for uses beyond straight up drinking water.

Ukraine cut access when Russia first seized the peninsula to a canal the soviets built back in the 1960s to divert from the dnieper, and restoring access were one of the first things Russia did back in February there in the opening days of the war.

Oh boy, the whole water issue could have pages of discussion alone.

Source? Because that would be interesting.

Straight from BBC:

US official - Some Russian forces leaving Kyiv, but it may not be 'meaningful'

As we've been reporting, Russia has said it will "drastically reduce" attacks around Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv.

Now, a US official has told the BBC that some Russian forces are moving away from the Ukrainian capital.

"Yes, we have seen the Russians begin to draw away from Kyiv," said the official, who was speaking on condition of anonymity.

"But we have little confidence at this stage that it marks some significant shift or a meaningful retreat. The Russians are still pounding Kyiv with airstrikes. Time will tell."

Keep your weird Russian power fantasies to yourself, that's a non-starter in any peace treaty.

Ukraine being demilitarized and barred from signing a defense agreement with the West is simply holding the door open for Russia to waltz back in once they've regrouped.

Ukraine has already indicated as a no-go (as they should) and Russia is already backing down by saying that allowing Ukraine to join the EU is something they're willing to let slide.

And as I mentioned just a little over a week ago, the longer this drags on, the more bargaining chips Ukraine will have. And it's already looking like I've been proven right, considering the softer tone Russia is taking and how badly crippled their forces are getting.

Remember when Kyiv was falling after the first weekend? Good times, good times...

What fantasies? Destruction of Ukraine's military industry are fantasies? And no, they are irreplacable, almost all of it is/was Soviet legacy, which Ukraine could not replace in better times and existance of which was the reason they could rearm at least partially after 2014/2015.

I really hope you do not think West is just gonna replace and rebuild all that...?

I suppose, in true Kremlin way, you can call unjustified murder of ukrainians, military and civilians alike as demilitarization. A pity for russians though that they are killing themselves vastly more efficiently, literally and figuratively.

Decades old traditions that sprung up purely from wanting to suppress facts and let Kremlin write history (that didn't actually happen).

Russia is losing. Ukraine is not. Whether Ukraine is winning by a small amount, or going for the big win, is still an ongoing judgement. Vast unjust destruction of the nation is happening, but while Russia can deal with their own deserved fate, on their own, and effectively devolving into North Korea, Ukraine will get all the help it needs to rebuild.

What kind of wierd fantasies do you have? Do read a post above, it explains what I meant with it...

And no, Ukraine will certainly not get half a trillion (more by this point and much more when war finally ends) in help.

So is Russia.

Both directly, as in all the troops and equipment that are lost for nothing in a unwinnable war.

But also indirectly, by demonstrating how bad all their hardware truly is. They are demonstrating how poorly maintained, and outdated their stuff is, and how to defeat them. And showing a total lack of leadership and command within their army.

They are showing the world how overestimated their army is, and will have lost all credibility.

Even nuclear threats are being laughed at. I'd be surprised if 25% of their nukes would even launch! And that's if the warheads are even still there and have not been sold along the way.

*eyeroll* Yes, nuclear threats are especially being laughed at. MiG "deal" certainly showed that. Oh, wait...

Not a single warhead was lost (ask West) when USSR fell and the 90ties happened in Russia, nothing is gonna be lost now.

Seriously, people, stereotypes and Twitter videos are making you not think straight before posting.

Won't happen for next 15 years apparently, if we are to believe Podolyak. Interesting question is, will Russia eat full sanctions that entire time? USSR started cracking before 40 years of Cold War passed, and Russia is not even close to USSR. Crimea being economically net negative won't help either.

A question no one has answer for. This thread has people in full hype mode of "Russia will fall in couple years! North Korea!" to "They will be backwards, but won't collapse" to "Russia str0nk, puny sanctions no hurt!"

[Saradain]

What kind of wierd fantasies do you have? Do read a post above, it explains what I meant with it...

And no, Ukraine will certainly not get half a trillion (more by this point and much more when war finally ends) in help.

My "fantasies" are at least more believable than your shilling. Nothing so far points out on russian victory, the opposite rather. You can enjoy whatever happens to Ukraine post-war, Russia ain't gonna just shrug all this off lol.

Were you american as your avatar would make people think, or russian?

[Gaidax]

Won't happen for next 15 years apparently, if we are to believe Podolyak. Interesting question is, will Russia eat full sanctions that entire time? USSR started cracking before 40 years of Cold War passed, and Russia is not even close to USSR. Crimea being economically net negative won't help either.

Russia will cut a deal, as usual.

People here are dreaming if they think these sanctions won't be eroded over time one way or another.

This will either come as part of settlement package with Ukraine or natural head of the state change for Russia, heck even if Putin does not get "retired" one way or another - he won't be a 85 years old president or 80 yo for that matter.

[Easo]

@Gaidax - so far as you said. Unless of course Putler IS really crazy.

DNR "leader" is also now talking about referendum about joining Russia, after the war ends. This follows the same from LNR about a week ago.

My "fantasies" are at least more believable than your shilling. Nothing so far points out on russian victory, the opposite rather. You can enjoy whatever happens to Ukraine post-war, Russia ain't gonna just shrug all this off lol.

Were you american as your avatar would make people think, or russian?

Ah yes, of course. Everything that is not 146% SLAVA UKRAINI is automatically shilling on this forum. Pointing out the failures/propaganda/lies, any criticism is automatically shilling. It all is just black and white, us/them, again and again and again...
I guess you do not have anything to say about Ukraine's military industry after all, or how incredibly generous West would have to be.

And who the fuck judges nationality by avatars??? I am Latvian, if you really wanna know. Whoops, I guess that is quiiite far from both of your "guesses".

[Saradain]

@Gaidax - so far as you said. Unless of course Putler IS really crazy.

DNR "leader" is also now talking about referendum about joining Russia, after the war ends. This follows the same from LNR about a week ago.



Ah yes, of course. Everything that is not 146% SLAVA UKRAINI is automatically shilling on this forum. Pointing out the failures/propaganda/lies, any criticism is automatically shilling. It all is just black and white, us/them, again and again and again...
I guess you do not have anything to say about Ukraine's military industry after all, or how incredibly generous West would have to be.

And who the fuck judges nationality by avatars??? I am Latvian, if you really wanna know. Whoops, I guess that is quiiite far from both of your "guesses".

Your nationality is irrelevant, it was just a personal question

I guess you keep on wishing for ukrainian destruction and constantly telling us how Ukraine is fucked and Russia goes stronk regardless of facts.

[Gabriel]

"Charnobyl Darwin Award" doesn't have the same ring. "Chernobyl of the Fittest" either. I'll work on it.

With Glowing Recommendations?
Most Radiant Performance?

[Easo]

There are big explosions in Belgorod right now, around one of the ammo warehouses. Predictions of some people have potentially been fulfilled.

In the meantime - 3rd terrorist attack in Israel in a week.

Your nationality is irrelevant, it was just a personal question

I guess you keep on wishing for ukrainian destruction and constantly telling us how Ukraine is fucked and Russia goes stronk regardless of facts.

For the billionth time for the people with troubles understanding plain English (even if not from a natural speaker) - I am all for a realistic view on the situation, not Twitter video feeds of tractors dragging tanks (hyped people seem unable to even notice the considerable reduction of such videos for more than two weeks now). And the realistic situation is that Ukraine is not winning, but slowly loosing. I guess fuck all the fuel silos, ammo dumps, etc. Ukraine has no need for such things to push the moskaljs back into Crimea!

Keep guessing more, you seem to like it, whether successful or not...

[Gaidax]

@Gaidax - so far as you said. Unless of course Putler IS really crazy.

DNR "leader" is also now talking about referendum about joining Russia, after the war ends. This follows the same from LNR about a week ago.

Well it can still go tits up, so ultimately who knows.

Of course, even if there will be some sort of agreement, I have no confidence it will last, certainly not 15 years, but Ukraine needs that time out more than Russia.

These DNR/LNR "leaders" will do whatever they are told to do by the boss, of course. I think the whole "referendum" talk is to pile some extra pressure on Ukraine on that part, because if they join Russia and Russia ratifies it - then they are not going back either, like Crimea. Ukraine would rather keep them "independent", because then it could swing their way down the road.

Maybe they will then put it up on another "someone else will deal with it in 15 years" pile. I also think Russia might oblige that one, because it leaves room for maneuvering in future with sanctions reduction or keeping pressure up on Ukraine.

[Kallisto]

Question, as a moderator, do you have access to see stuff like a users IP address and other such stuff to see where they track back to? Would be interesting to be able to call out liars saying they are in one space when really they are in another.

As someone who mods and also has been part of the administration team, having access to IP addresses is normally only something that is accessible to those at the very very high end of staff. Like Global/Super Mods and admins only. Not normal mods. I wouldn't be surprised if it is the same here.

[Easo]

As someone who mods and also has been part of the administration team, having access to IP addresses is normally only something that is accessible to those at the very very high end of staff. Like Global/Super Mods and admins only. Not normal mods. I wouldn't be surprised if it is the same here.

Plus VPN is a thing... I am not going to go into details like split routing, just the basic use of VPN where all traffic goes through somewhere else

[Huehuecoyotl]

Not sure you can call that winning either. How many years before Ukraine will get back to where it was ?

I'll out on a limb and say that Ukraine will get back to where it was before this war started sooner than Russia does. That's even with all the rebuilding that's required.

[Zaydin]

Do whatever you want and join the chorus here claiming Ukraine is winning.

Ukraine is winning by not losing and is actively pushing Russia back in places.

Russia is losing by not winning when everyone and expected them to win in a matter of days, tovarisch.

Anything less than total victory for Russia will be a humiliating defeat for Russia because this farce has revealed the mighty Russian bear to be toothless and clawless with the only reason other countries are still wary of the failed Russian state being its nuclear weapons.

[Kallisto]

Not sure you can call that winning either. How many years before Ukraine will get back to where it was ?

Honestly even IF Ukraine were to give up Donbas, Crimea and a land bridge between the two (Not something I want happen in the slightest) the nation will likely be stronger in 4-5 years than it was pre-war. The west is going to flood Ukraine with money, expertise, businesses, charities, the lot that it will be Marshall plan 2.0 in there. Sure no military will be involved, but if there's little corruption it would be a European South Korea with Russia being the European North Korea.

[Magnagarde]

Well it can still go tits up, so ultimately who knows.

Of course, even if there will be some sort of agreement, I have no confidence it will last, certainly not 15 years, but Ukraine needs that time out more than Russia.

These DNR/LNR "leaders" will do whatever they are told to do by the boss, of course. I think the whole "referendum" talk is to pile some extra pressure on Ukraine on that part, because if they join Russia and Russia ratifies it - then they are not going back either, like Crimea. Ukraine would rather keep them "independent", because then it could swing their way down the road.

Maybe they will then put it up on another "someone else will deal with it in 15 years" pile. I also think Russia might oblige that one, because it leaves room for maneuvering in future with sanctions reduction or keeping pressure up on Ukraine.

The situation in Armenia, in the Balkans(Bosnia and to a lesser extent Montenegro and Macedonia) and many others are prime examples of why frozen conflicts don't work, especially in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, given the amount of mythomania that necessarily comes with the various territorial claims by the people living there. Without an ultimate victor and/or without a "military bloc retailoring" of the Ukrainian borders, any sort of peace deal will, figuratively, represent the cleaning and reloading of a gun in order to get ready for the next showdown. Ukrainian neutrality would play a huge part in this problem should they accept it, given that any and all guarantees given to Ukraine as a neutral state mean absolutely nothing in the long run. This is especially true due to the potential of future free interpretations of the situation on the ground.

The destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, coupled with the mass-emmigration that has happened and that is surely to follow, have set Ukraine back significantly. A frozen conflict would mean wasting another decade or two in the near future. Russia on the other hand probably counts on the emmigration of disagreeable elements from Russia, making the existing structure's hold on power somewhat stronger.

[PhaelixWW]

Another day, another stock dump.

MoEx sank lower again today.



Sberbank was up slightly, but that's mostly because it was down so much in recent trading.

Since the markets reopened:



Even trying to game the system, Putin is failing.